Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 10%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil
Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 42.19
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
Key risks
IMO key risks include [1] adverse regulatory and energy transition policies targeting its oil sands operations and [2] operational disruptions from its dependence on third-party pipeline infrastructure.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.5%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 42.19
6 Key risks
IMO key risks include [1] adverse regulatory and energy transition policies targeting its oil sands operations and [2] operational disruptions from its dependence on third-party pipeline infrastructure.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IMO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the -5.3% movement of Imperial Oil (IMO) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Performance. Imperial Oil reported its third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.57, which beat analyst estimates. However, revenues of $8.8 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.1 billion and decreased from the prior-year level. The net income for the quarter was $539 million, significantly lower than the $1,237 million reported in Q3 2024, leading to a pre-market stock dip of 3.56% immediately following the announcement.

2. Impact of Restructuring Charges and Asset Impairment. The decrease in Q3 2025 net income was primarily driven by a $306 million after-tax non-cash impairment of the Calgary Imperial Campus and a $249 million after-tax restructuring charge. While a restructuring plan was announced in September 2025 to centralize activities and achieve $150 million in annual expense savings by 2028, these one-time charges negatively impacted reported financial results.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IMO Return-25%95%38%21%10%42%281%
Peers Return-33%69%56%-0%4%12%105%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IMO Win Rate50%58%75%67%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate38%68%58%50%55%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IMO Max Drawdown-70%-1%0%-8%-4%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-2%0%-14%-6%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, SU, CNQ, CVE, CVX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIMOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven249.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven407 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-32.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven794 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5,424 days1,480 days

Compare to XOM, CVX, SU, IMO, CVE


In The Past

Imperial Oil's stock fell -30.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -30.1% loss requires a 43.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Imperial Oil (IMO)

Better Bets than Imperial Oil (IMO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IMO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Imperial Oil

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IMOXOMSUCNQCVECVXMedian
NameImperial.Exxon Mo.Suncor E.Canadian.Cenovus .Chevron  
Mkt Price84.99117.4142.8231.8616.99149.5263.91
Mkt Cap42.8483.151.966.530.4289.959.2
Rev LTM46,244324,92453,30144,52156,602186,97954,952
Op Inc LTM5,03035,7087,9529,0224,32815,0678,487
FCF LTM4,78323,7758,0368,1242,82415,4248,080
FCF 3Y Avg3,92831,4627,6638,2843,74318,1857,974
CFO LTM6,57951,52013,94314,7707,84931,84514,356
CFO 3Y Avg5,76755,76813,69613,8748,47134,25013,785

Growth & Margins

IMOXOMSUCNQCVECVXMedian
NameImperial.Exxon Mo.Suncor E.Canadian.Cenovus .Chevron  
Rev Chg LTM-6.2%-4.4%-2.8%8.3%-4.8%-3.6%-4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.6%-5.6%-3.4%-2.4%-6.6%-6.2%-5.6%
Rev Chg Q-7.5%-5.1%-2.4%6.4%-4.5%-1.5%-3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.0%-1.4%-0.6%1.5%-1.1%-0.4%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%11.0%14.9%20.3%7.6%8.1%10.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.4%12.7%17.2%21.9%9.0%11.2%12.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.7%-0.4%-0.3%-4.3%0.9%-0.3%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM14.2%15.9%26.2%33.2%13.9%17.0%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.0%16.5%25.4%32.8%14.8%17.6%17.1%
FCF/Rev LTM10.3%7.3%15.1%18.2%5.0%8.2%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.2%9.3%14.2%19.6%6.5%9.3%9.3%

Valuation

IMOXOMSUCNQCVECVXMedian
NameImperial.Exxon Mo.Suncor E.Canadian.Cenovus .Chevron  
Mkt Cap42.8483.151.966.530.4289.959.2
P/S1.01.50.91.50.51.61.2
P/EBIT8.8-6.57.67.113.57.6
P/E11.416.19.610.09.723.610.7
P/CFO6.99.43.64.53.99.55.7
Total Yield11.7%9.8%15.9%17.1%12.5%8.3%12.1%
Dividend Yield3.0%3.6%5.5%7.1%2.2%4.1%3.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.9%-16.1%12.0%11.5%6.2%11.5%
D/E0.1-0.30.30.30.10.3
Net D/E0.0-0.20.30.30.10.2

Returns

IMOXOMSUCNQCVECVXMedian
NameImperial.Exxon Mo.Suncor E.Canadian.Cenovus .Chevron  
1M Rtn-13.4%-0.2%-2.6%-3.2%-4.4%-2.3%-2.9%
3M Rtn-9.6%2.7%0.9%-0.2%-1.5%-5.6%-0.8%
6M Rtn6.0%5.6%9.1%-2.7%18.4%3.2%5.8%
12M Rtn32.4%12.7%24.6%9.7%19.7%5.6%16.2%
3Y Rtn96.8%24.3%64.3%40.7%5.7%0.5%32.5%
1M Excs Rtn-14.2%-1.0%-3.4%-3.9%-5.1%-3.1%-3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-10.4%2.6%-0.1%-0.8%-3.0%-6.2%-1.9%
6M Excs Rtn-6.4%-6.8%-3.3%-15.1%6.0%-9.2%-6.6%
12M Excs Rtn18.4%-1.3%10.4%-4.4%4.8%-9.4%1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn20.4%-45.7%-6.4%-33.1%-63.1%-68.5%-39.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Downstream55,85864,98530,20715,17823,591
Upstream16,51219,7645,8636,2639,479
Chemical1,5811,9761,438843932
Corporate and Other143790  
Investment and other income-267-257   
Eliminations-23,125-27,1340  
Total50,70259,41337,50822,28434,002


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream2,5123,6451,395-2,3181,348
Downstream2,3013,622895553961
Chemical16420436178108
Eliminations00   
Corporate and Other-88-131-172-170217
Total4,8897,3402,479-1,8572,634


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream28,71828,83029,41631,83534,554
Downstream10,1149,2777,9454,5545,179
Corporate and Other2,3665,3123,1961,6322,536
Chemical475491474408416
Eliminations-474-386-249-398-498
Total41,19943,52440,78238,03142,187


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,833,754
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.6%
Average Daily Volume470,136
Days-to-Cover Short Interest42.19
Basic Shares Quantity503,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/2025-3.3%-0.4%4.0%
8/1/2025-0.2%1.8%8.8%
5/2/20251.0%2.1%6.6%
1/31/2025-6.7%-6.6%-7.3%
11/1/2024-5.0%-0.7%-0.9%
8/2/2024-1.6%3.7%8.9%
4/26/2024-0.8%-4.5%-3.1%
2/2/2024-1.3%2.9%9.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91215
# Negative15129
Median Positive4.7%3.9%9.3%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.9%-4.1%
Max Positive8.6%13.7%38.5%
Max Negative-7.4%-13.1%-8.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021