Imperial Oil (IMO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $96.26 | Market Cap: $48.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Imperial Oil (IMO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $96.26Market Cap: $48.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 10% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil | Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 37.98 | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.5% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 37.98 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IMO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Since the requested time period (8/31/2025 to December 4, 2025) is in the future, I cannot provide a factual analysis of why Imperial Oil's stock moved by 7.2% during that specific timeframe. However, I can outline general factors that commonly influence the stock price of oil and gas companies like Imperial Oil.
1. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and natural gas directly impact the profitability of oil and gas companies. A rise in commodity prices generally leads to increased earnings and higher stock values, while a decline can result in diminished returns and a drop in share prices.
2. Global Supply and Demand Dynamics: The balance between global energy supply and demand significantly affects share prices. Factors such as economic growth, population changes, and energy consumption patterns influence demand, while production levels, exploration activities, and geopolitical events shape supply.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IMO Return | -25% | 95% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 57% | 322% |
| Peers Return | -35% | 72% | 55% | -1% | 7% | 25% | 129% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IMO Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 75% | 67% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 67% | 62% | 52% | 58% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IMO Max Drawdown | -70% | -1% | 0% | -8% | -4% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -5% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, SU, IMO, CVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IMO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5424 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, SU, IMO, CVE
In The Past
Imperial Oil's stock fell -30.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -30.1% loss requires a 43.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Imperial Oil Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IMO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Imperial Oil
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.1 |
| Rev LTM | 56,602 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,952 |
| FCF LTM | 8,036 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,663 |
| CFO LTM | 13,943 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,696 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 11.4 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downstream | 55,858 | 64,985 | 30,207 | 15,178 | 23,591 |
| Upstream | 16,512 | 19,764 | 5,863 | 6,263 | 9,479 |
| Chemical | 1,581 | 1,976 | 1,438 | 843 | 932 |
| Corporate and Other | 143 | 79 | 0 | ||
| Investment and other income | -267 | -257 | |||
| Eliminations | -23,125 | -27,134 | 0 | ||
| Total | 50,702 | 59,413 | 37,508 | 22,284 | 34,002 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 2,512 | 3,645 | 1,395 | -2,318 | 1,348 |
| Downstream | 2,301 | 3,622 | 895 | 553 | 961 |
| Chemical | 164 | 204 | 361 | 78 | 108 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -88 | -131 | -172 | -170 | 217 |
| Total | 4,889 | 7,340 | 2,479 | -1,857 | 2,634 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 28,718 | 28,830 | 29,416 | 31,835 | 34,554 |
| Downstream | 10,114 | 9,277 | 7,945 | 4,554 | 5,179 |
| Corporate and Other | 2,366 | 5,312 | 3,196 | 1,632 | 2,536 |
| Chemical | 475 | 491 | 474 | 408 | 416 |
| Eliminations | -474 | -386 | -249 | -398 | -498 |
| Total | 41,199 | 43,524 | 40,782 | 38,031 | 42,187 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |