Valero Energy (VLO)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $234.0 | Market Cap: $69.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Valero Energy (VLO)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $234.0Market Cap: $69.7 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.7 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10% Key risksVLO key risks include [1] significant net losses driven by volatile refining margins and [2] escalating compliance costs that have forced asset shutdowns. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.7 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10% |
| Key risksVLO key risks include [1] significant net losses driven by volatile refining margins and [2] escalating compliance costs that have forced asset shutdowns. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Valero Energy (VLO) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valero Energy reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, significantly exceeding analyst expectations.
The company announced net income attributable to shareholders of $1.3 billion, or $4.22 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial improvement from a $595 million net loss in the prior year's comparable quarter. This performance surpassed analysts' average estimate of $3.12 per share by 35.26%. The refining segment was a key contributor, turning an operating loss of $530 million in fiscal Q1 2025 into an operating income of $1.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026. Valero's ability to leverage discounted heavy sour crude supplies, including incremental Venezuelan crude, for its Gulf Coast refining fleet contributed to widening differentials and strong profitability.
2. Elevated refining margins, particularly for jet fuel, fueled by global supply disruptions, significantly boosted profitability.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over 100 days, starting around late February/early March 2026, severely disrupted global petroleum supply and led to a surge in refined product prices. U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel spot prices escalated by 110% year-over-year by mid-May 2026, outstripping a 40% rise in U.S. gasoline prices over the same period. Valero strategically capitalized on these conditions by increasing jet fuel production to 30% of its total distillates in March 2026 and reconfiguring other refineries to produce more jet fuel, capturing elevated crack spreads. Additionally, the Brent crude oil spot price surged from an average of $71 per barrel in February to $117 per barrel in April, further bolstering wholesale product prices and refining margins.
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Valero Energy (VLO) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valero Energy reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, significantly exceeding analyst expectations.
The company announced net income attributable to shareholders of $1.3 billion, or $4.22 per share, for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), a substantial improvement from a $595 million net loss in the prior year's comparable quarter. This performance surpassed analysts' average estimate of $3.12 per share by 35.26%. The refining segment was a key contributor, turning an operating loss of $530 million in fiscal Q1 2025 into an operating income of $1.8 billion in fiscal Q1 2026. Valero's ability to leverage discounted heavy sour crude supplies, including incremental Venezuelan crude, for its Gulf Coast refining fleet contributed to widening differentials and strong profitability.
2. Elevated refining margins, particularly for jet fuel, fueled by global supply disruptions, significantly boosted profitability.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz for over 100 days, starting around late February/early March 2026, severely disrupted global petroleum supply and led to a surge in refined product prices. U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel spot prices escalated by 110% year-over-year by mid-May 2026, outstripping a 40% rise in U.S. gasoline prices over the same period. Valero strategically capitalized on these conditions by increasing jet fuel production to 30% of its total distillates in March 2026 and reconfiguring other refineries to produce more jet fuel, capturing elevated crack spreads. Additionally, the Brent crude oil spot price surged from an average of $71 per barrel in February to $117 per barrel in April, further bolstering wholesale product prices and refining margins.
3. Valero demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing investor confidence.
In fiscal Q1 2026, Valero returned $938 million to its shareholders, representing a payout ratio of 59% of adjusted net cash provided by operating activities. This included a 6% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.20 per share, which was announced on January 22, 2026.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and upward revisions in price targets reinforced the stock's upward momentum.
Several financial analysts issued optimistic reports and raised their price targets for Valero Energy during the period. For instance, Piper Sandler increased its price target for VLO to $263 from $236 in April 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a bullish outlook for 2026 and beyond. Mizuho also raised its target price from $222 to $289 in late May 2026. Zacks Research upgraded Valero Energy from a "hold" to a "strong-buy" rating in April 2026. As of mid-June 2026, the company held a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from analysts, with an average price target of $245.59.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.0% change in VLO stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 76.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 203.67 | 236.30 | 16.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 122,687 | 124,810 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.9% | 3.4% | 76.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.3 | 16.7 | -36.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 303 | 298 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VLO | 16.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | -39.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.2% | 78.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.1% change in VLO stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 177.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 174.85 | 236.30 | 35.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 123,071 | 124,810 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 3.4% | 177.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.1 | 16.7 | -53.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 309 | 298 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VLO | 35.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | -21.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.7% | 74.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 87.9% change in VLO stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 365.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 125.75 | 236.30 | 87.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 128,380 | 124,810 | -2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 3.4% | 365.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.5 | 16.7 | -60.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 314 | 298 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 87.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VLO | 87.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | -5.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 36.1% | 70.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 140.7% change in VLO stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 532.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.17 | 236.30 | 140.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 174,280 | 124,810 | -28.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 3.4% | -57.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.6 | 16.7 | 532.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 369 | 298 | 23.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 140.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VLO | 140.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 54.8% | 72.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VLO Return | 40% | 75% | 6% | -3% | 37% | 49% | 414% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 100% | 11% | -8% | 14% | 32% | 363% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VLO Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 72% | 50% | 47% | 70% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VLO Max Drawdown | -28% | -32% | -30% | -34% | -27% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -29% | -23% | -33% | -29% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MPC, PSX, XOM, CVX, PBF. See VLO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1192 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 303 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Valero Energy's stock fell -23.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | VLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1192 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 303 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 396.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1985 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Valero Energy's stock fell -23.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Valero Energy (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major energy company primarily engaged in manufacturing and marketing transportation fuels and petrochemical products across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates through three core segments: refining petroleum into various fuels, producing renewable diesel from sustainable feedstocks, and manufacturing ethanol. Valero maintains a significant operational footprint, including 15 petroleum refineries, 12 ethanol plants, and a dedicated facility for renewable diesel production, supported by extensive logistics assets like pipelines and terminals.
Valero's diverse product portfolio includes a wide range of conventional and specialized gasolines, various diesel and jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalt, and petrochemicals. These refined products are distributed through wholesale and bulk markets, and prominently featured at approximately 7,000 branded retail outlets under names such as Valero, Beacon, and Ultramar, serving both commercial and individual customers. Additionally, through its renewable segments, Valero produces ethanol, along with co-products like dry distiller grains for animal feed, and converts animal fats and used cooking oils into renewable diesel, addressing increasing demand for cleaner energy solutions.
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Analogy 1: Valero is essentially a massive fuel manufacturing plant, converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, similar to the refining operations of ExxonMobil or Shell.
Analogy 2: Valero is a diverse energy provider, producing and distributing not just petroleum fuels but also renewable diesel and ethanol, similar to the product and distribution networks of the downstream divisions of BP or Chevron.
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- Gasolines: Valero produces various grades of gasoline, including conventional, premium, and reformulated types for transportation.
- Diesel Fuels: The company manufactures low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and California Air Resources Board (CARB) diesel fuels.
- Jet Fuels: Valero produces specialized fuels for aircraft.
- Renewable Diesel: This is a diesel fuel produced from renewable organic materials such as animal fats and used cooking oils.
- Ethanol: Valero produces ethanol, primarily used as a fuel additive or biofuel.
- Asphalts: The company manufactures asphalt, a refined petroleum product used in paving and construction.
- Petrochemicals: Valero produces chemicals derived from petroleum or natural gas for various industrial uses.
- Lubricants and Lube Oils: These products are manufactured to reduce friction and wear in engines and machinery.
- Natural Gas Liquids: Valero also produces natural gas liquids, which are hydrocarbon mixtures obtained from natural gas processing.
- Ethanol By-products: From its ethanol production, Valero sells dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil, primarily to animal feed customers.
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Lane Riggs, President and Chief Executive Officer
Lane Riggs was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Valero Energy Corporation in January 2020. His leadership at Valero has been characterized by a focus on operational excellence, strategic growth, and environmental stewardship. Prior to becoming CEO, he held significant roles within the company, including Executive Vice President of Refining Operations and Engineering, Senior Vice President-Refining Operations, and Senior Vice President of Crude, Feedstock Supply, and Trading, overseeing Planning, Economics, and Development. Riggs earned a Bachelor of Science degree in chemical engineering from the University of Oklahoma and a Master of Business Administration degree with an emphasis in finance and economics from West Texas A&M University.
Homer Bhullar, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Homer Bhullar assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. In this capacity, he is responsible for leading Valero's financial management and strategy, including oversight of the company's accounting, tax, treasury, risk management, corporate development, and investor relations functions. Bhullar joined Valero in 2014, serving in various leadership positions such as Vice President-Investor Relations and Finance, Vice President of Business Development, and Director of Corporate Development. Before joining Valero, he worked as an investment banker specializing in the energy sector at J.P. Morgan and Citigroup. At J.P. Morgan, he was involved in advisory teams for the spinoff of CST Brands Inc. and the formation of Valero Energy Partners LP. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics and an MBA with a focus on investment management and energy finance, both from the University of Texas at Austin.
Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Gary Simmons serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, with oversight of Valero's crude supply and products trading, wholesale marketing, transportation, and international commercial operations groups. He previously held positions as Senior Vice President-Supply, International Operations, and Systems Optimization, and Vice President-Crude, Feedstock, Supply and Trading.
Rich Walsh, Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Rich Walsh is the Senior Vice President and General Counsel for Valero Energy Corporation. In this role, he is responsible for the company's litigation, regulatory, and employment law departments, as well as its ad valorem tax and environmental, health, and safety groups. Prior to his current position, Walsh served as Valero's Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, holding various leadership roles within the legal department. He earned his Bachelor of Arts and Juris Doctor degrees from the University of Oklahoma.
Eric Fisher, Senior Vice President Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale
Eric Fisher serves as Senior Vice President Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale, overseeing the company's product supply and trading, and global wholesale marketing operations, which include offices in London, Montreal, and Dublin. Fisher began his career with Valero in 1997 in the Corporate Law Department. He has held numerous leadership positions within the company, including Vice President of Investor Relations, President-Europe, and Senior Vice President-Wholesale Marketing and International Commercial Operations. Before joining Valero, Fisher practiced law at the firm of Fulbright & Jaworski.
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Key Risks to Valero Energy (VLO)
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Energy Transition and Decreased Demand for Transportation Fuels: Valero's core business relies heavily on the manufacture and sale of conventional transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel. The global shift towards decarbonization, increasing adoption of electric vehicles, and advancements in fuel efficiency pose a significant long-term risk to the demand for these products. As the world transitions to lower-carbon energy sources, the market for Valero's primary products could shrink, impacting refining utilization and profitability.
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Volatile Crude Oil Prices and Refining Margins: The profitability of Valero's Refining segment is highly sensitive to the differential between crude oil input costs and the selling prices of refined products, often referred to as crack spreads. Fluctuations in global crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical events, supply and demand imbalances, and economic conditions, can significantly impact refining margins, leading to earnings volatility.
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Environmental Regulations and Climate Change Policies: Valero operates in a heavily regulated industry. Increasing governmental and societal pressure to address climate change could lead to more stringent environmental regulations, carbon taxes, or other policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Such measures could increase Valero's operating costs, require substantial capital expenditures for compliance, and potentially impact the demand for its products.
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The accelerating global transition towards electric vehicles and other alternative energy sources for transportation poses a clear emerging threat to Valero Energy. As demand shifts away from internal combustion engine vehicles, the need for Valero's primary products, such as conventional gasoline and diesel fuels refined from petroleum, will decline significantly over time. This trend directly impacts the core profitability and long-term viability of its large refining segment.
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Valero Energy Corporation's main products and services operate within several significant addressable markets:
Transportation Fuels (Gasoline, Diesel, Jet Fuel)
- The global transportation fuel market was valued at USD 828.90 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 1,103.20 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.90%. Another estimate places the global transportation fuel market at USD 894.72 billion in 2025, with a projected growth to USD 1,187.31 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 3.60%.
- North America holds a substantial portion of this market, accounting for approximately 35-38% in 2023. The U.S. transportation fuel market size was USD 261.20 billion in 2025.
- Within the transportation fuel sector, the diesel segment is estimated to have the highest global market revenue share. The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 2.5% during the 2025-2031 forecast period.
Petrochemical Products
- The global petrochemical market was valued at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow to approximately USD 1,257.50 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.03%. Other estimates indicate the global market size at USD 625.42 billion in 2024, expected to increase to USD 1,149.8 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 7%.
- In the United States, the petrochemical market was valued at USD 116.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 210.7 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.8%. Another source reported the U.S. petrochemicals market size at approximately USD 114.44 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 216.85 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 6.60%.
Renewable Diesel
- The global renewable diesel market was estimated at USD 25.8 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow from USD 27.3 billion in 2026 to USD 57.9 billion by 2035, achieving an 8.7% CAGR. Another report states the global market size at USD 33.91 billion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 50.26 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.19%.
- North America held a market value of USD 12.4 billion in 2025 for renewable diesel. The U.S. renewable diesel market was valued at USD 12.07 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach approximately USD 22.99 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 6.66%.
Ethanol
- The global ethanol market was valued at around USD 110.72 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 176.22 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of about 5.30%. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 114.98 billion in 2025, with a forecast to reach around USD 199.40 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 5.66%.
- North America is a leading region in the global ethanol market, holding over 53% of the global market share in 2025. The U.S. ethanol market is estimated to be valued at USD 32.76 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 60.66 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.20%.
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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next two to three years driven by several key factors across its segments:
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Expansion and Optimization of Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production: Valero's Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) joint venture is a significant growth area. The completion and startup of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) project at the DGD Port Arthur plant are expected to enhance long-term profitability. The company's strategic positioning in the renewable diesel market, marked by increasing DGD indicators, suggests potential to capitalize on favorable market dynamics and rising Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices. Valero has demonstrated increased renewable diesel sales volumes, with Q3 2024 volumes being higher than the previous year. The DGD Port Arthur plant, which began operations in late 2022, continues to ramp up rates, contributing additional volumes.
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Favorable Refining Market Dynamics and Robust Demand for Transportation Fuels: Valero is expected to benefit from improving diesel demand and widening crude oil differentials, which are projected to enhance refining margins. Long-term market dynamics appear favorable due to anticipated product demand exceeding supply, driven by announced refinery shutdowns and limited new capacity additions beyond 2025. The company has observed robust U.S. wholesale volumes, indicating strong product demand. Furthermore, the global refining industry is facing tight supply and lagging capacity additions, which, combined with steady fuel demand, could lead to lower inventories and increased pressure on operational refineries like Valero to meet demand. Valero's operational capacity allows for full utilization in a favorable North Atlantic market, with management projecting demand growth outpacing supply. Widening discounts for sour crude and increased availability of Canadian and Venezuelan crude are also advantageous for Valero's refining system.
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Increased Ethanol Production Volumes: Valero's ethanol segment has shown a trend of increasing production volumes. Ethanol production volumes in Q3 2024, Q2 2024, Q1 2024, and Q4 2023 were consistently higher than their respective prior-year periods. This growth in production, coupled with favorable factors such as lower corn prices, contributed to higher operating income in the ethanol segment in past quarters.
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Share Repurchases
- Valero's annual share buybacks amounted to $5.136 billion in 2023, $2.875 billion in 2024, and $2.598 billion in 2025.
- Total shareholder cash returns reached $4.0 billion in 2025.
- As of September 2025, the company had two repurchase programs in progress, authorizing the buyback of up to $2.811 billion in common shares, representing approximately 5.29% of its common shares.
Share Issuance
- In March 2026, Valero Energy Corporation priced a public offering of $850 million aggregate principal amount of 5.150% Senior Notes due 2036. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, including the repayment, repurchase, or redemption of outstanding debentures and senior notes due in 2026.
- The company issued $650 million aggregate principal amount of 5.15% Senior Notes due 2030 in February 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Annual capital expenditures were $911 million in 2023, $907 million in 2024, and $796 million in 2025.
- Valero anticipates capital investments of approximately $1.7 billion for 2026, with around $1.4 billion allocated to sustaining the business and the remainder for growth projects. These investments include expenditures for turnarounds, catalysts, regulatory compliance, and joint venture investments.
- The company is advancing optimization projects, such as the $230 million SEC unit optimization project at the St. Charles refinery, which is expected to commence operations in the latter half of 2026. Additionally, Valero has invested $6.0 billion in low-carbon projects as of February 2026.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 169.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 71.0 |
| Rev LTM | 134,934 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,131 |
| FCF LTM | 5,627 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,196 |
| CFO LTM | 7,851 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,010 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 65.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -22.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 71.0 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.1 |
| P/E | 16.5 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 116,166 | 123,863 | 136,488 | 168,210 | 106,961 |
| Ethanol | 4,977 | 4,486 | 5,559 | 5,486 | 5,589 |
| Renewable Diesel | 4,597 | 5,066 | 6,991 | 5,501 | 2,342 |
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -3,053 | ||||
| Corporate and Eliminations | -3,534 | -4,272 | -2,814 | -915 | |
| Total | 122,687 | 129,881 | 144,766 | 176,383 | 113,977 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 4,040 | 3,971 | 11,511 | 15,803 | 1,862 |
| Ethanol | 374 | 288 | 553 | 110 | 473 |
| Elimination of intersegment losses | 28 | ||||
| Renewable Diesel | -156 | 507 | 852 | 774 | 709 |
| Other corporate expenses | -1,105 | ||||
| Corporate and Eliminations | -1,011 | -1,058 | -997 | -914 | |
| Total | 3,181 | 3,755 | 11,858 | 15,690 | 2,130 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 44,498 | 46,729 | 49,031 | 48,484 | 47,365 |
| Corporate assets | 6,938 | ||||
| Renewable Diesel | 5,317 | 5,680 | 5,790 | 5,217 | 3,437 |
| Ethanol | 1,501 | 1,545 | 1,549 | 1,551 | 1,812 |
| Elimination of intercompany receivables and other assets | -266 | ||||
| Corporate and Eliminations | 6,189 | 6,686 | 5,730 | 5,274 | |
| Total | 57,988 | 60,143 | 63,056 | 60,982 | 57,888 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $236.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 70.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/04/1982 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $244.75 | $199.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.5% | 18.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.6% | 35.1% |
| Downside Capture | -152.97 | -88.24 |
| Upside Capture | -83.11 | -0.81 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -43.8% | -5.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.16 | -2.27 | -1.36 | -0.72 | -0.15 | 0.65 |
| Up Beta | -3.39 | -2.98 | -2.15 | -1.03 | -0.09 | 0.77 |
| Down Beta | -1.54 | -0.60 | -0.26 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 1.15 |
| Up Capture | -122% | -81% | -53% | -27% | 6% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 24 | 38 | 67 | 138 | 405 |
| Down Capture | -300% | -461% | -279% | -231% | -183% | 33% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 25 | 57 | 112 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 71.3% | 35.1% | 1.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 25.3% | 20.9% | 0.98 | 70.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | -6.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 53.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | -3.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 28.0% | 36.9% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 18.5% | 26.1% | 0.64 | 77.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 51.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 20.6% | 40.4% | 0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 8.9% | 29.6% | 0.34 | 77.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 47.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 44.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 38.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 236.90 | 7,500 | 1,776,781 | 6,453,741 | Form |
| 2 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 251.61 | 7,500 | 1,887,064 | 8,741,386 | Form |
| 3 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | John Fisher Trust | Sell | 3122026 | 238.73 | 200 | Form | ||
| 4 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Andrew Fisher Trust | Sell | 3122026 | 238.47 | 200 | Form | ||
| 5 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 227.69 | 8,311 | 1,892,332 | 9,618,085 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 236.90 | 7,500 | 1,776,781 | 6,453,741 | Form |
| 2 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 251.61 | 7,500 | 1,887,064 | 8,741,386 | Form |
| 3 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | John Fisher Trust | Sell | 3122026 | 238.73 | 200 | Form | ||
| 4 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Andrew Fisher Trust | Sell | 3122026 | 238.47 | 200 | Form | ||
| 5 | Fisher, Eric A | SVP | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 227.69 | 8,311 | 1,892,332 | 9,618,085 | Form |
| 6 | Fraser, Jason W | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 174.02 | 9,933 | 1,728,540 | 23,352,775 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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