Tearsheet

Antero Resources (AR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.4 | Market Cap: $11.2 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Antero Resources (AR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.4
Market Cap: $11.2 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Below are key points explaining movements in Antero Resources (AR) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. 1. Lower than anticipated Q3 2025 Earnings: Antero Resources reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, with earnings per share of $0.10, significantly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.48. Additionally, the reported revenue of $1.21 billion fell short of the $1.25 billion analysts had expected, despite being up 15% year-over-year.

2. Strategic Acquisitions Boosting Future Production and Cash Flow: In November 2025, Antero Resources announced acquisitions anticipated to increase its fourth-quarter 2025 production by 2% to 3%. These acquisitions are also expected to lead to a significant improvement in Q4 2025 free cash flow, estimated at $245 million, partly due to improved natural gas prices.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AR Return91%221%77%-27%55%-1%1118%
Peers Return-34%105%60%2%-7%3%110%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AR Win Rate58%67%67%33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate43%70%63%53%42%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AR Max Drawdown-77%0%-3%-35%-7%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-70%-1%0%-18%-14%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DVN, BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG. See AR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-76.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven325.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven29 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-92.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1248.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven838 days120 days

Compare to DVN, BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG


In The Past

Antero Resources's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Antero Resources (AR)

Better Bets than Antero Resources (AR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
AR_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023ARAntero ResourcesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.9%72.0%-1.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
AR_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023ARAntero ResourcesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.9%72.0%-1.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Antero Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARDVNBSMCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Mkt Price36.4037.69-91.8134.13111.5137.69
Mkt Cap11.223.7-114.371.360.360.3
Rev LTM4,88017,47043159,78844,52122,57920,024
Op Inc LTM7333,95827812,5499,0227,5395,748
FCF LTM1,1802,8182247,0888,1243,8913,354
FCF 3Y Avg9811,6773718,9108,2845,1673,422
CFO LTM1,5386,84133619,93514,77010,1958,518
CFO 3Y Avg1,1936,74443720,72013,87411,4539,098

Growth & Margins

ARDVNBSMCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Rev Chg LTM19.7%11.4%-8.5%8.2%8.3%-5.0%8.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.0%-2.1%-16.4%-6.6%-2.4%-7.6%-7.1%
Rev Chg Q15.2%7.6%1.9%15.3%6.4%-2.3%7.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%1.8%0.5%3.4%1.5%-0.6%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM15.0%22.7%64.3%21.0%20.3%33.4%21.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.2%28.3%66.2%24.1%21.9%36.4%26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.4%-1.7%1.0%-1.0%-4.3%-0.8%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM31.5%39.2%77.9%33.3%33.2%45.2%36.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.5%41.8%88.7%35.6%32.8%49.0%38.7%
FCF/Rev LTM24.2%16.1%52.0%11.9%18.2%17.2%17.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%10.2%73.9%15.3%19.6%22.1%20.3%

Valuation

ARDVNBSMCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Mkt Cap11.223.7-114.371.360.360.3
P/S2.11.3-2.01.52.72.0
P/EBIT13.65.4-8.17.68.38.1
P/E17.68.1-13.310.011.011.0
P/CFO6.73.2-5.94.55.95.9
Total Yield5.7%15.1%-10.8%17.1%12.6%12.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%-3.3%7.1%3.5%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.0%6.5%-6.9%12.0%7.6%7.6%
D/E0.30.4-0.20.30.10.3
Net D/E0.30.3-0.10.30.10.3

Returns

ARDVNBSMCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
1M Rtn9.8%14.8%-4.6%6.8%5.6%6.8%
3M Rtn14.5%8.2%--2.1%10.7%-6.6%8.2%
6M Rtn-2.4%21.1%-8.7%13.4%2.5%8.7%
12M Rtn13.5%3.1%--10.4%5.1%-12.5%3.1%
3Y Rtn5.8%-36.9%--16.5%31.6%-9.3%-9.3%
1M Excs Rtn9.9%14.9%-4.7%6.8%5.6%6.8%
3M Excs Rtn6.7%1.3%--8.6%4.9%-12.8%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-17.1%6.4%--6.0%-1.4%-12.2%-6.0%
12M Excs Rtn-2.2%-11.5%--25.9%-7.2%-27.0%-11.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-71.4%-107.9%--90.4%-39.2%-80.6%-80.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Exploration and Production13,60214,08113,86413,15114,122
Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream5,7385,7915,5445,6116,283
Marketing173732 21
Elimination of Unconsolidated Affiliate-5,738-5,791-5,544-5,611-5,228
Total13,61914,11813,89713,15115,198


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,318,431
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.5%
Average Daily Volume5,097,317
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.61
Basic Shares Quantity308,763,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021