Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.4 | Market Cap: $11.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.4Market Cap: $11.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -71% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -71% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Below are key points explaining movements in Antero Resources (AR) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025.
1. Lower than anticipated Q3 2025 Earnings: Antero Resources reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, with earnings per share of $0.10, significantly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.48. Additionally, the reported revenue of $1.21 billion fell short of the $1.25 billion analysts had expected, despite being up 15% year-over-year.
2. Strategic Acquisitions Boosting Future Production and Cash Flow: In November 2025, Antero Resources announced acquisitions anticipated to increase its fourth-quarter 2025 production by 2% to 3%. These acquisitions are also expected to lead to a significant improvement in Q4 2025 free cash flow, estimated at $245 million, partly due to improved natural gas prices.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AR Return | 91% | 221% | 77% | -27% | 55% | -1% | 1118% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 105% | 60% | 2% | -7% | 3% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AR Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 70% | 63% | 53% | 42% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AR Max Drawdown | -77% | 0% | -3% | -35% | -7% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -70% | -1% | 0% | -18% | -14% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DVN, BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG. See AR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1248.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 838 days | 120 days |
Compare to DVN, BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG
In The Past
Antero Resources's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 05312023 | AR | Antero Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.9% | 72.0% | -1.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 05312023 | AR | Antero Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.9% | 72.0% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Antero Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 20,024 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,748 |
| FCF LTM | 3,354 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,422 |
| CFO LTM | 8,518 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,098 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 5.9 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 13,602 | 14,081 | 13,864 | 13,151 | 14,122 |
| Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream | 5,738 | 5,791 | 5,544 | 5,611 | 6,283 |
| Marketing | 17 | 37 | 32 | 21 | |
| Elimination of Unconsolidated Affiliate | -5,738 | -5,791 | -5,544 | -5,611 | -5,228 |
| Total | 13,619 | 14,118 | 13,897 | 13,151 | 15,198 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |