Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $34.02 | Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $34.02Market Cap: $10.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Key risksAR key risks include [1] earnings volatility from its unhedged production profile and [2] discounted gas prices resulting from pipeline constraints. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Key risksAR key risks include [1] earnings volatility from its unhedged production profile and [2] discounted gas prices resulting from pipeline constraints. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period between August 31, 2025, and December 21, 2025, Antero Resources (AR) experienced several significant events that influenced its stock.
1. Antero Resources announced strategic transactions with a major acquisition and divestiture. On December 8, 2025, Antero Resources announced it would acquire HG Energy's upstream assets for $2.8 billion in cash and assume its commodity hedge book. Concurrently, the company planned to sell its Ohio Utica Shale upstream assets for $800 million. This strategic move is expected to boost production in the Marcellus region by 850 million cfe/day by 2026 and identify $950 million in synergies over the next decade.
2. Antero Midstream also engaged in significant asset transactions. As part of the broader strategic moves, Antero Midstream (AM) agreed to acquire HG Energy's midstream assets for $1.1 billion and sell its Utica Shale midstream assets for $400 million. These transactions aim to enhance Antero Midstream's capacity and solidify its position in the Marcellus Shale.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AR Return | 91% | 221% | 77% | -27% | 55% | -4% | 1076% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 10454% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 5% | 24260% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AR Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 53% | 63% | 57% | 53% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AR Max Drawdown | -77% | 0% | -3% | -35% | -7% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -2% | -5% | -12% | -10% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, CTRA, CNX, GPOR. See AR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1248.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 838 days | 120 days |
Compare to DVN, BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG
In The Past
Antero Resources's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| 05312023 | AR | Antero Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.9% | 72.0% | -1.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| 05312023 | AR | Antero Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.9% | 72.0% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Antero Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,879 |
| Op Inc LTM | 757 |
| FCF LTM | 877 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 761 |
| CFO LTM | 1,335 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,171 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 34.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 50.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 54.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.3 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 17.8 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 13,602 | 14,081 | 13,864 | 13,151 | 14,122 |
| Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream | 5,738 | 5,791 | 5,544 | 5,611 | 6,283 |
| Marketing | 17 | 37 | 32 | 21 | |
| Elimination of Unconsolidated Affiliate | -5,738 | -5,791 | -5,544 | -5,611 | -5,228 |
| Total | 13,619 | 14,118 | 13,897 | 13,151 | 15,198 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -5.0% | 3.8% | 13.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.3% | -2.4% | -5.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -4.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -8.3% | 1.5% | 15.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.9% | -12.8% | -7.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 2/14/2024 | 10.9% | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.4% | 14.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.9% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 21.1% | 22.4% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.0% | -12.8% | -28.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |