Tearsheet

Antero Resources (AR)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $34.37 | Market Cap: $10.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Antero Resources (AR)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $34.37
Market Cap: $10.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the -1.7% stock movement for Antero Resources (AR) from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025: 1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates: Antero Resources' adjusted earnings per share of $0.15 for the third quarter of 2025 fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.22 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -31.82%. This miss, despite the company reporting a return to net profitability, likely contributed to a slight downturn in investor confidence.

2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: During this period, several analyst firms issued less favorable ratings or reduced their price targets for Antero Resources' stock. For example, Roth Capital downgraded the stock to "neutral" and lowered its price target from $44.00 to $32.00 in August, while Zacks Research moved to a "strong sell" rating in October. Such adjustments can influence market perception and exert downward pressure on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AR Return91%221%77%-27%55%-2%1105%
Peers Return-25%78%58%-8%-6%0%82%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AR Win Rate58%67%67%33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%65%57%48%37%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AR Max Drawdown-77%0%-3%-35%-7%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-73%-14%-1%-24%-17%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DVN, INDO, COP, CNQ, EOG. See AR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-76.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven325.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven29 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-92.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1248.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven838 days120 days

Compare to DVN, INDO, COP, CNQ, EOG


In The Past

Antero Resources's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Antero Resources (AR)

Better Bets than Antero Resources (AR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.3%6.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.6%1.6%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.6%22.6%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.5%-0.5%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.7%13.7%0.0%
AR_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023ARAntero ResourcesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.9%72.0%-1.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.3%6.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.6%1.6%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.6%22.6%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.5%-0.5%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.7%13.7%0.0%
AR_5312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312023ARAntero ResourcesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.9%72.0%-1.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Antero Resources

Financials

ARDVNINDOCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Mkt Price34.3435.042.7389.4232.55109.2434.69
Mkt Cap10.622.0-111.468.059.159.1
Rev LTM4,88017,470-59,78844,52122,57922,579
Op Inc LTM7333,958-12,5499,0227,5397,539
FCF LTM1,1802,818-7,0888,1243,8913,891
FCF 3Y Avg9811,677-8,9108,2845,1675,167
CFO LTM1,5386,841-19,93514,77010,19510,195
CFO 3Y Avg1,1936,744-20,72013,87411,45311,453

Growth & Margins

ARDVNINDOCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Rev Chg LTM19.7%11.4%-8.2%8.3%-5.0%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-13.0%-2.1%--6.6%-2.4%-7.6%-6.6%
Rev Chg Q15.2%7.6%-15.3%6.4%-2.3%7.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%1.8%-3.4%1.5%-0.6%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM15.0%22.7%-21.0%20.3%33.4%21.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.2%28.3%-24.1%21.9%36.4%24.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.4%-1.7%--1.0%-4.3%-0.8%-1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM31.5%39.2%-33.3%33.2%45.2%33.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.5%41.8%-35.6%32.8%49.0%35.6%
FCF/Rev LTM24.2%16.1%-11.9%18.2%17.2%17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%10.2%-15.3%19.6%22.1%19.6%

Valuation

ARDVNINDOCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
Mkt Cap10.622.0-111.468.059.159.1
P/S2.21.3-1.91.52.61.9
P/EBIT13.95.4-7.67.78.17.7
P/E18.08.1-12.610.210.710.7
P/CFO6.93.2-5.64.65.85.6
Total Yield5.6%15.1%-11.4%16.8%12.9%12.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%-3.5%7.0%3.6%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.0%6.5%-6.9%12.0%7.6%7.6%
D/E0.30.4-0.20.30.10.3
Net D/E0.30.3-0.20.30.10.3

Returns

ARDVNINDOCOPCNQEOGMedian
NameAntero R.Devon En.Indonesi.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso. 
1M Rtn8.6%7.1%-2.5%1.4%5.2%1.1%3.3%
3M Rtn6.2%4.2%0.0%-6.5%10.7%-7.9%2.1%
6M Rtn-14.6%6.4%18.2%-2.2%8.1%-4.0%2.1%
12M Rtn10.1%-7.9%-6.2%-18.0%2.8%-15.9%-7.0%
3Y Rtn-4.9%-43.8%-59.2%-26.0%23.6%-15.5%-20.8%
1M Excs Rtn5.8%6.5%-5.2%0.9%4.5%0.5%2.7%
3M Excs Rtn2.9%0.3%-6.3%-10.7%6.1%-11.8%-3.0%
6M Excs Rtn-28.5%-7.5%4.3%-16.1%-5.7%-17.9%-11.8%
12M Excs Rtn-3.8%-19.8%-29.0%-30.5%-12.1%-27.4%-23.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-87.1%-120.2%-135.3%-102.5%-52.2%-92.7%-97.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Exploration and Production13,60214,08113,86413,15114,122
Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream5,7385,7915,5445,6116,283
Marketing173732 21
Elimination of Unconsolidated Affiliate-5,738-5,791-5,544-5,611-5,228
Total13,61914,11813,89713,15115,198


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,868,697
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520252.8%
Average Daily Volume4,716,194
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.73
Basic Shares Quantity308,763,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-5.0%3.8% 
7/30/20253.3%-2.4%-5.0%
4/30/2025-0.5%5.4%7.5%
2/12/20252.0%0.3%-4.6%
10/30/2024-8.3%1.5%15.8%
7/31/2024-0.9%-12.8%-7.3%
4/24/20246.2%3.9%6.6%
2/14/202410.9%21.1%21.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131514
# Negative11910
Median Positive3.3%5.4%14.9%
Median Negative-2.6%-3.9%-7.3%
Max Positive21.1%22.4%28.2%
Max Negative-9.0%-12.8%-28.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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