Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $39.27 | Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Antero Resources (AR)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $39.27Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 14% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.4% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.3% Key risksAR key risks include [1] earnings volatility from its unhedged production profile and [2] discounted gas prices resulting from pipeline constraints. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -2.4% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.3% |
| Key risksAR key risks include [1] earnings volatility from its unhedged production profile and [2] discounted gas prices resulting from pipeline constraints. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Q1 2026 Financial and Operational Performance: Antero Resources reported robust first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company's revenue surged by 44% year-over-year to $1.95 billion, substantially higher than the anticipated $1.63 billion. Net income attributable to Antero more than doubled, increasing by 157% to $535.2 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow nearly tripled to $657.5 million compared to the prior-year period. This strong performance was also driven by record net daily production, which grew 13% year-over-year to 3.9 Bcfe/d.
2. Strategic Acquisition and Portfolio Optimization: The company undertook significant strategic transactions in December 2025, which favorably impacted its production and asset base. Antero Resources completed the acquisition of HG Energy II Production Holdings, LLC for $2.8 billion, adding 385,000 net acres and projecting an annual production uplift of approximately 700 MMcfe/d. Concurrently, the company divested its Ohio Utica assets for $800 million, streamlining its portfolio to focus on core Marcellus operations.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.2% change in AR stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.46 | 39.01 | 13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,880 | 5,484 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.1% | 17.5% | 44.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.0 | 12.5 | -30.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 309 | 309 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AR | 13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | -19.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 32.9% | 47.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.2% change in AR stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.56 | 39.01 | 16.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,730 | 5,484 | 15.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 17.5% | 73.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.7 | 12.5 | -42.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 310 | 309 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AR | 16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 34.1% | 53.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.5% change in AR stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -94.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.44 | 39.01 | -3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,119 | 5,484 | 33.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 17.5% | 1162.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 219.9 | 12.5 | -94.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 311 | 309 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AR | -3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 36.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 30.4% | 63.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.9% change in AR stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 239.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.09 | 39.01 | 68.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,300 | 5,484 | -33.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.6% | 17.5% | -22.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.7 | 12.5 | 239.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 299 | 309 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AR | 68.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 57.2% | 58.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AR Return | 221% | 77% | -27% | 55% | -2% | 12% | 607% |
| Peers Return | 10454% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 7% | 13% | 29211% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AR Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 63% | 57% | 53% | 53% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AR Max Drawdown | 0% | -3% | -35% | -7% | -15% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | -12% | -10% | -12% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EQT, RRC, CTRA, CNX, GPOR. See AR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1248.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 838 days | 120 days |
Compare to EQT, RRC, CTRA, CNX, GPOR
In The Past
Antero Resources's stock fell -58.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -58.4% loss requires a 140.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Antero Resources (AR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. An EQT Corporation that also specializes in extracting valuable natural gas liquids from the Appalachian Basin.
2. An independent energy producer similar to EOG Resources, but with a primary focus on natural gas and natural gas liquids in Appalachia.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Natural Gas: Antero Resources explores for, develops, and produces natural gas for sale.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The company extracts and sells various natural gas liquids, including ethane, propane, and natural gasoline.
- Oil: Antero Resources is involved in the exploration, development, and production of oil.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Antero Resources (AR)
Antero Resources (AR) is an independent oil and natural gas company that sells its products primarily to other companies, not directly to individuals. While Antero's public filings typically do not disclose the names of individual major customers (e.g., those accounting for 10% or more of revenue) due to commercial confidentiality, one significant and publicly announced major customer for a portion of its natural gas production is:
- TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE): TotalEnergies is a major global multi-energy company. Antero has entered into a significant long-term natural gas sales agreement with an affiliate of TotalEnergies, committing 0.3 Bcf/d of natural gas for a 10-year term beginning in 2025. This contract represents a substantial portion of Antero's future natural gas production intended for liquefaction and export, making TotalEnergies a major customer.
For the remainder of its natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil production, Antero typically sells to a diverse group of corporate customers that fall into the following categories:
- Natural Gas Marketers and Traders: These companies purchase natural gas from producers for resale to a wide range of end-users, including utilities, industrial facilities, and power generators. Specific names are rarely disclosed by Antero, even when they account for a significant portion of annual revenue (as noted in its 2021 10-K).
- Natural Gas Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) and Utilities: These entities are responsible for transporting and delivering natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers within specific geographic areas.
- Industrial End-Users and Petrochemical Companies: This category includes large industrial facilities that consume natural gas as fuel or feedstock, as well as petrochemical companies that utilize NGLs (such as ethane, propane, and butane) as raw materials for manufacturing plastics and other chemicals.
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- Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)
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Michael N. Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer and President
Michael N. Kennedy was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream in August 2025. He previously served as Antero Resources' Chief Financial Officer since 2021 and Senior Vice President—Finance since 2016, and also held CFO roles for Antero Midstream. Before joining Antero in 2013, Mr. Kennedy spent 12 years at Forest Oil Corporation, including serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 2009 to 2013. His career also includes experience as an auditor with Arthur Andersen, specializing in the Natural Resources Industry from 1996 to 2001.
Brendan E. Krueger, Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President—Finance and Treasurer
Brendan E. Krueger became Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President—Finance and Treasurer of Antero Resources in August 2025. He joined Antero in 2014 and has been instrumental in various capital markets activities and strategic transactions, including two initial public offerings. Prior to Antero, Mr. Krueger accumulated seven years of experience as an investment banker, focusing on equity and debt financing and M&A advisory with firms such as Robert W. Baird & Co., Wells Fargo Securities, and A.G. Edwards, Inc.
Paul M. Rady, Chairman Emeritus
Paul M. Rady co-founded Antero Resources in 2002 and served as its Chief Executive Officer and President until his transition to Chairman Emeritus in August 2025. Prior to Antero, he co-founded Pennaco Energy with Glen C. Warren, Jr., which they successfully sold to Marathon Oil for $1.1 billion in 2001. Antero Resources was initially backed by significant private equity investment, including from Warburg Pincus. Mr. Rady also led Antero's predecessor company from its founding in 2002 to its sale to XTO Energy Inc. in 2005 for over $1 billion. His experience also includes serving as President and CEO of Barrett Resources Corporation.
Glen C. Warren, Jr., Co-Founder (retired)
Glen C. Warren, Jr. co-founded Antero Resources with Paul M. Rady in June 2002. He served as President, Chief Financial Officer, and Secretary of Antero Resources from May 2004 until his retirement in April 2021. Before Antero, Mr. Warren was the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President at Pennaco Energy, Inc. from 1998 until its sale in 2001. Antero was initially funded by an investor group that included Warburg Pincus, Yorktown Energy Partners, and Lehman Brothers Merchant Banking Group.
Sheri L. Pearce, Senior Vice President, Accounting and Chief Accounting Officer
Sheri L. Pearce serves as the Senior Vice President, Accounting and Chief Accounting Officer for Antero Resources and Antero Midstream.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Antero Resources (AR):- Commodity Price Volatility: Antero Resources' financial performance is highly dependent on the prices of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil. A substantial or prolonged period of low commodity prices could adversely affect its business, financial condition, results of operations, and ability to meet capital expenditure obligations and financial commitments. The company's unhedged strategy further exposes it to decreased free cash flow during periods of depressed pricing.
- Regulatory Uncertainty and Environmental Risks: The oil and natural gas industry is subject to extensive governmental regulations and environmental laws. Changes in these laws or increased regulatory scrutiny, including those related to greenhouse gas emissions and permitting for infrastructure projects, can lead to higher compliance costs, operational restrictions, and long-term regulatory uncertainty.
- Inflation, Supply Chain Disruptions, and Cost of Equipment and Services: Antero Resources faces risks related to inflation, disruptions in the supply chain, and the availability and cost of drilling, completion, and production equipment and services. These factors can increase operational expenses and impact the efficiency and profitability of its development activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation, heating, and industrial sectors, driven by increasingly cost-effective solar, wind, and battery storage technologies, poses a clear emerging threat to Antero Resources by fundamentally eroding long-term demand for its primary products: natural gas, natural gas liquids, and oil.AI Analysis | Feedback
Antero Resources' main products are natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil. The addressable markets for these products in the United States are substantial:
- Natural Gas: The U.S. natural gas market is projected to be valued at approximately US$473.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$601.8 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.5% during this period. The Appalachian Basin, where Antero Resources operates, was the largest natural gas-producing region in the U.S. in 2025, accounting for 36.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), which represents about 31% of the total U.S. marketed production.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The North American Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) market is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion in 2033, with a CAGR of 5.57%. The United States is a dominant player in this market, holding a 92.8% share in North America in 2024. The overall natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 23.83 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 32.18 billion by 2030 globally.
- Oil: While specific market sizing for oil alone can often be integrated into broader oil and gas reports, the U.S. oil and gas market combined is a significant addressable market. This market was valued at USD 1.55 trillion in 2024, grew to USD 1.61 trillion in 2025, and is projected to reach around USD 2.24 trillion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 3.75% between 2025 and 2034. The United States became the largest producer of crude oil globally in 2023.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Antero Resources (AR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Increased Production Volumes: Antero Resources projects a significant increase in its production of natural gas equivalent (Bcfe/d). The company's average production was 3.4 Bcfe/d in 2025 and is projected to rise to 4.1 Bcfe/d in 2026. Furthermore, 2027 guidance is set at 4.3 Bcfe/d, with an optional growth target of up to 4.5 Bcfe/d, depending on market conditions.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Expanded Core Inventory: The recent acquisition of HG Energy plays a pivotal role in Antero's growth strategy. This transaction closed ahead of schedule, adding 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, which extends the company's core inventory life by five years and increases its exposure to dry gas markets. This expansion directly supports the projected increase in production volumes.
- Growing Demand for Natural Gas: Antero Resources is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas. The company anticipates significant opportunities from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the Gulf Coast, as well as rising demand from data centers and natural gas-fired power plants regionally.
- Favorable Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Market and Export Capacity: As the largest publicly traded NGL exporter, Antero Resources is poised to benefit from favorable NGL market dynamics. Global NGL demand growth is forecast to be substantial in 2026, representing the largest annual increase since 2021. Additionally, significant expansions in LPG export capacity have alleviated bottlenecks, ensuring unconstrained U.S. export capacity through at least 2028, which should support NGL revenue. Analysts also anticipate a recovery in natural gas liquids pricing, particularly for propane.
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Share Repurchases
- Antero Resources repurchased $136 million of stock in 2025.
- Year-to-date through September 30, 2025, the company purchased approximately 4.7 million shares for an aggregate of $163 million.
- Approximately $915 million of capacity remains on the previously approved share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- No new equity was issued for recent transactions, including the HG Energy acquisition.
- Antero Resources' 2025 shares outstanding were 0.312 billion, a 0.34% decline from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- In early February 2026, Antero Resources closed the acquisition of HG Energy, which added 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, extending the core inventory life by five years.
- During 2025, Antero completed several bolt-on acquisitions in its core Marcellus footprint in West Virginia for approximately $260 million. These acquisitions included 75-100 MMcfe/d of net production and 10 net undeveloped locations.
- The company invested in land, adding approximately 7,000 net acres and 26 incremental drilling locations in Q4 2025 for $33 million, and 7,000 net acres and 32 incremental drilling locations in Q3 2025 for $42 million.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, the drilling and completion capital budget is $1 billion, comprising $900 million for maintenance capital and $100 million related to not entering into a drilling joint venture.
- Antero may invest up to an additional $200 million in discretionary growth capital in 2026, focusing on completing an additional two to three pads, based on commodity prices and in-basin demand needs.
- Full-year 2025 drilling and completion capital expenditures were decreased to $650 to $675 million due to continued capital efficiency gains. The full-year 2025 land capital budget was increased to $125 to $150 million for expanded leasing in the Marcellus Fairway.
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| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -6.5% |
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| 05312023 | AR | Antero Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.9% | 72.0% | -1.2% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| Rev LTM | 4,346 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,105 |
| FCF LTM | 1,224 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 787 |
| CFO LTM | 1,746 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,205 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 212.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 77.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 50.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 54.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | 9.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 13,000 | 13,602 | 14,081 | 13,864 | 13,151 |
| Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream | 5,762 | 5,738 | 5,791 | 5,544 | 5,611 |
| Marketing | 10 | 17 | 37 | 32 | |
| Elimination of Unconsolidated Affiliate | -5,762 | -5,738 | -5,791 | -5,544 | -5,611 |
| Total | 13,010 | 13,619 | 14,118 | 13,897 | 13,151 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $39.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/10/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $38.96 | $34.81 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.1% | 12.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.5% | 39.1% |
| Downside Capture | -0.83 | 0.04 |
| Upside Capture | -58.30 | 13.76 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -20.8% | 7.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.08 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.73 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | -1.24 | 0.74 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.90 |
| Down Beta | 1.46 | 2.41 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.82 | 1.57 |
| Up Capture | 88% | -0% | -12% | 79% | 48% | 63% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 26 | 37 | 67 | 135 | 396 |
| Down Capture | -156% | -158% | -156% | 6% | 67% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 26 | 59 | 116 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 9.1% | 39.1% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 47.1% | 19.7% | 1.83 | 50.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 7.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | -1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | 37.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 15.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 33.8% | 49.0% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.7% | 26.1% | 0.84 | 61.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 36.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 46.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 14.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 3.5% | 60.7% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.3% | 29.5% | 0.39 | 55.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 32.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 38.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 6.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | |||
| 2/11/2026 | -3.7% | -0.2% | 16.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | -5.0% | 3.8% | 13.1% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.3% | -2.4% | -5.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -4.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -8.3% | 1.5% | 15.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.9% | -12.8% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.7% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.5% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 21.1% | 22.4% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.0% | -12.8% | -22.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Net Daily Natural Gas Equivalent Production | 3.80 Bil | 8.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.51 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q2 2026 Net Daily Natural Gas Equivalent Production | 4.10 Bil | 16.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.51 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net Daily Natural Gas Equivalent Production | 4.10 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Net Daily Natural Gas Production | 2.80 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Net Daily Natural Gas Equivalent Production | 3.50 Bil | 3.51 Bil | 3.52 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.42 Bil for 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 C3+ NGL Realized Price Premium vs. Mont Belvieu | 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.75 | -25.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Land Capital Expenditures | 25.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 50.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Land Capital Budget | 125.00 Mil | 137.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 C3+ NGL Realized Price Premium vs. Mont Belvieu | 0.75 | 0.88 | 1 | -41.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.5 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardesty, Benjamin A | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 44.00 | 12,000 | 528,000 | 6,610,648 | Form | |
| 2 | Pearce, Sheri | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 38.13 | 19,667 | 749,903 | 1,931,590 | Form |
| 3 | Schultz, Yvette K | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 39.33 | 15,000 | 589,950 | 12,551,068 | Form |
| 4 | Hardesty, Benjamin A | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 36.00 | 12,000 | 432,000 | 5,840,712 | Form | |
| 5 | Krueger, Brendan E | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 33.35 | 5,000 | 166,750 | 9,868,832 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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