Transocean (RIG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.99 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Transocean (RIG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.99Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions. | Key risksRIG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] potential contract renegotiations and high rig operating costs that threaten revenue stability. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102% |
| Key risksRIG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] potential contract renegotiations and high rig operating costs that threaten revenue stability. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RIG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide information for the requested time period as it is in the future.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RIG Return | -66% | 19% | 65% | 39% | -41% | 2% | -44% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 25% | -28% | -5% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RIG Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 64% | 42% | 33% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RIG Max Drawdown | -90% | 0% | -14% | -6% | -45% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -11% | -34% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, VAL, SDRL. See RIG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RIG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 969.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 830 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 310.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 282.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NE, VAL, HP, LBRT, TDW
In The Past
Transocean's stock fell -53.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/2/2021. A -53.5% loss requires a 115.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Transocean Earnings Notes | |||
| Transocean Stock Surged 40%, Here's Why | |||
| Transocean vs Cal-Maine Foods: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Transocean vs SM Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Transocean vs Helmerich & Payne: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Transocean Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Transocean Stock Surged 40%, Here’s Why | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Buy Or Fear Transocean Stock? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| RIG Lost 21% In A Month. History Suggests More Pain Is Possible. | July 17th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Transocean Stock? | June 11th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Transocean Weather The Lull In The Offshore Rig Market? | December 26th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RIG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| 09302024 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -25.4% | -26.6% | -49.9% |
| 12312022 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 53.7% | 39.3% | -6.4% |
| 04302021 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.6% | 16.8% | -14.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| 09302024 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -25.4% | -26.6% | -49.9% |
| 12312022 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 53.7% | 39.3% | -6.4% |
| 04302021 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.6% | 16.8% | -14.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Transocean
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 574 |
| FCF LTM | 321 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1 |
| CFO LTM | 602 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 417 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.4 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 5.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.1% | 1.8% | 13.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 6.4% |
| 2/18/2025 | 0.6% | -5.7% | -9.3% |
| 10/30/2024 | 9.0% | 17.3% | 10.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.7% | -13.1% | -18.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.0% | 9.6% | 13.0% |
| 2/20/2024 | -4.5% | -2.9% | 23.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | 0.5% | -1.8% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 8.2% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -6.6% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 20.9% | 48.6% | 190.3% |
| Max Negative | -10.8% | -16.2% | -70.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |