Transocean (RIG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.405 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Transocean (RIG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.405Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -79%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RIG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Transocean (RIG) stock experienced significant movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Transocean reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings of 6 cents per share for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents. The company's total adjusted revenues reached $1 billion, also beating analyst expectations. This performance led to new multi-year highs in Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin, and management provided a constructive outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and preliminary 2026 guidance.
2. Improved Rig Utilization and Day Rates: A key driver for the increase in third-quarter revenues was the improved rig utilization and enhanced revenue efficiency. The average day rates for Transocean's fleet rose to $462,300, up from $436,800 in the same quarter last year. Concurrently, the fleet utilization rate improved to 76% in the third quarter, compared to 63.9% in the prior-year period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RIG Return | -66% | 19% | 65% | 39% | -41% | 15% | -37% |
| Peers Return | -21% | 5% | 113% | 24% | -18% | 5% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RIG Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 58% | 58% | 43% | 42% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RIG Max Drawdown | -90% | 0% | -14% | -6% | -45% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -4% | 0% | -19% | -27% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, VAL, TDW, LBRT, HP. See RIG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RIG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 969.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 830 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 310.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 282.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to NE, VAL, TDW, LBRT, HP
In The Past
Transocean's stock fell -53.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/2/2021. A -53.5% loss requires a 115.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Transocean Stock Surged 40%, Here's Why | |||
| Transocean vs Cal-Maine Foods: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Transocean vs SM Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Transocean vs Helmerich & Payne: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Transocean Stock Compare With Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Transocean (RIG) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Transocean Stock Surged 40%, Here’s Why | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Buy Or Fear Transocean Stock? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| RIG Lost 21% In A Month. History Suggests More Pain Is Possible. | July 17th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Transocean Stock? | June 11th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Transocean Weather The Lull In The Offshore Rig Market? | December 26th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RIG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 09302024 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -25.4% | -26.6% | -49.9% |
| 12312022 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 53.7% | 39.3% | -6.4% |
| 04302021 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.6% | 16.8% | -14.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 09302024 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -25.4% | -26.6% | -49.9% |
| 12312022 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 53.7% | 39.3% | -6.4% |
| 04302021 | RIG | Transocean | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.6% | 16.8% | -14.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Transocean
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,438 |
| Op Inc LTM | 430 |
| FCF LTM | 268 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 196 |
| CFO LTM | 595 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 537 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.1 |
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/CFO | 5.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 36.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 26.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 41.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |