Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 16%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions.
  Key risks
RIG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] potential contract renegotiations and high rig operating costs that threaten revenue stability.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 16%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Supply. Themes include Offshore Hydrocarbon Extraction Technology, and Deepwater Drilling Solutions.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -102%
7 Key risks
RIG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load that limits its financial flexibility and [2] potential contract renegotiations and high rig operating costs that threaten revenue stability.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RIG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I am unable to provide information for the requested time period as it is in the future.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RIG Return-66%19%65%39%-41%2%-44%
Peers Return25%-28%-5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RIG Win Rate50%50%75%42%42%75% 
Peers Win Rate64%42%33%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RIG Max Drawdown-90%0%-14%-6%-45%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-34%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NE, VAL, SDRL. See RIG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRIGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven108 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-90.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven969.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven830 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-75.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven310.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven282.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to NE, VAL, HP, LBRT, TDW


In The Past

Transocean's stock fell -53.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/2/2021. A -53.5% loss requires a 115.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Transocean (RIG)

Better Bets than Transocean (RIG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RIG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%
RIG_9302024_Short_Squeeze09302024RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-25.4%-26.6%-49.9%
RIG_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
53.7%39.3%-6.4%
RIG_4302021_Short_Squeeze04302021RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
9.6%16.8%-14.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%
RIG_9302024_Short_Squeeze09302024RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-25.4%-26.6%-49.9%
RIG_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
53.7%39.3%-6.4%
RIG_4302021_Short_Squeeze04302021RIGTransoceanSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
9.6%16.8%-14.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Transocean

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RIGNEVALSDRLMedian
NameTransoce.Noble Valaris Seadrill  
Mkt Price3.9528.5249.6330.4829.50
Mkt Cap3.84.53.51.93.7
Rev LTM3,8743,4482,4161,3642,932
Op Inc LTM60163654834574
FCF LTM482392250-106321
FCF 3Y Avg1249-64-1
CFO LTM60690159919602
CFO 3Y Avg396722417-417

Growth & Margins

RIGNEVALSDRLMedian
NameTransoce.Noble Valaris Seadrill  
Rev Chg LTM16.9%24.3%6.8%-9.3%11.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.6%59.6%-13.9%14.6%
Rev Chg Q8.4%-0.3%-7.4%2.5%1.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%-0.1%-1.9%0.7%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM15.5%18.5%22.7%2.5%17.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.9%21.8%12.6%14.3%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%-2.2%0.7%-1.6%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM15.6%26.1%24.8%1.4%20.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.6%24.3%19.3%-19.3%
FCF/Rev LTM12.4%11.4%10.3%-7.8%10.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.5%8.2%-2.9%--1.5%

Valuation

RIGNEVALSDRLMedian
NameTransoce.Noble Valaris Seadrill  
Mkt Cap3.84.53.51.93.7
P/S0.81.31.41.41.3
P/EBIT-1.28.14.7117.16.4
P/E-1.019.88.655.114.2
P/CFO4.95.05.898.65.4
Total Yield-97.8%8.6%11.6%1.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.5%4.9%-1.3%-2.5%
D/E2.10.40.30.30.4
Net D/E1.80.30.10.10.2

Returns

RIGNEVALSDRLMedian
NameTransoce.Noble Valaris Seadrill  
1M Rtn-3.2%-3.3%-11.6%-0.6%-3.2%
3M Rtn16.2%-4.3%-5.3%-9.8%-4.8%
6M Rtn27.8%2.0%8.6%7.1%7.8%
12M Rtn7.6%1.4%15.2%-18.3%4.5%
3Y Rtn-7.7%-5.3%-17.6%5.2%-6.5%
1M Excs Rtn-3.9%-4.0%-12.3%-1.3%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn12.8%-4.8%-7.3%-9.4%-6.1%
6M Excs Rtn15.4%-10.4%-3.8%-5.3%-4.6%
12M Excs Rtn-8.7%-11.8%2.8%-31.4%-10.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-67.4%-73.6%-85.0%-63.7%-70.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Contract drilling services2,832    
Harsh environment floaters 8678361,0461,069
Ultra-deepwater floaters 1,7081,7202,0941,957
Midwater floaters   1255
Total2,8322,5752,5563,1523,081


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity143,632,957
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202515.1%
Average Daily Volume36,686,152
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.92
Basic Shares Quantity961,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.1%1.8%13.6%
8/4/20253.6%3.6%6.4%
2/18/20250.6%-5.7%-9.3%
10/30/20249.0%17.3%10.6%
7/31/2024-5.7%-13.1%-18.1%
4/30/20241.0%9.6%13.0%
2/20/2024-4.5%-2.9%23.5%
10/31/20230.5%-1.8%-3.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141312
# Negative8910
Median Positive4.2%8.2%14.8%
Median Negative-4.7%-6.6%-10.8%
Max Positive20.9%48.6%190.3%
Max Negative-10.8%-16.2%-70.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021