Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.37 | Market Cap: $700.6 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.37Market Cap: $700.6 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GRNT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement of Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Stock Drop Despite Positive Q3 2025 Earnings.
Granite Ridge Resources' stock experienced a notable fall of 6.57% to $5.40 around December 3, 2025. This decline occurred despite the company reporting performance gains in its Q3 2025 results, including $78.6 million in Adjusted EBITDA and $14.5 million in net income, suggesting that positive operational outcomes were outweighed by negative market sentiment.
2. Issuance of High-Interest Unsecured Notes.
On December 2, 2025, Granite Ridge Resources enhanced its liquidity by issuing $350 million in 8.875% unsecured notes due November 2029. While this move aimed to boost financial flexibility, the relatively high interest rate on this new debt could have raised investor concerns about increased financing costs and the company's overall debt burden, potentially contributing to a negative stock reaction.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GRNT Return | - | -2% | -7% | -28% | 15% | -14% | -36% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | -1% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GRNT Win Rate | 100% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GRNT Max Drawdown | - | -4% | -17% | -44% | -12% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GRNT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Granite Ridge Resources's stock fell -51.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -51.7% loss requires a 106.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GRNT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Granite Ridge Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 91.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 18,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 2,058 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,769 |
| CFO LTM | 9,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,091 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 51.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 55.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9122022 | S-4/A 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 7082022 | S-4/A 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5162022 | S-4 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |