Suncor Energy (SU)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $45.32 | Market Cap: $54.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Suncor Energy (SU)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $45.32Market Cap: $54.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.0 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Suncor Energy's (SU) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Suncor Energy surpassed Q3 2025 earnings and revenue estimates, reporting earnings of $1.07 per share against an estimate of $0.85 per share, and revenues of $9.2 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.10% for the quarter ended September 2025. The company also demonstrated strong financials with $3.8 billion in adjusted funds from operations and $2.3 billion in free funds flow for Q3 2025.
2. The company announced increases in its quarterly dividend and continued robust share buyback programs, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns. Specifically, Suncor declared a dividend of $0.57 per share payable in September 2025 and further increased its quarterly dividend to $0.60 per share in November 2025, representing a 5.5% yield.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SU Return | -47% | 55% | 32% | 6% | 16% | 27% | 72% |
| Peers Return | -13% | 40% | 38% | -7% | 10% | 15% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SU Win Rate | 33% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 38% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SU Max Drawdown | -68% | -0% | 0% | -11% | -2% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -3% | -1% | -15% | -7% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, IMO, DEC, RRI, CVX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1086 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 763 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1262 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 397.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to XOM, IMO, DEC, RRI, CVX
In The Past
Suncor Energy's stock fell -37.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -37.3% loss requires a 59.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Suncor Energy Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Suncor Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 174.0 |
| Rev LTM | 120,140 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,510 |
| FCF LTM | 11,730 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,924 |
| CFO LTM | 22,894 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 23,973 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 174.0 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 13.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3222024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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