Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.4%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.0 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.4%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results contain news and financial updates for Suncor Energy (SU) for the period between August 2025 and December 2025. I can identify key points that would influence stock movement during this time. The prompt specifies a 5.8% movement, so I will select points that generally indicate positive sentiment or growth, consistent with a stock increase. I also need to exclude insider transactions unless they exceed USD 5 million. I will format the output in HTML as requested. Here's a breakdown of relevant information from the search results: * **December 11, 2025:** Suncor forecasts higher oil and gas production in 2026 (840,000-870,000 bpd vs. 810,000-840,000 bpd in 2025), lower capital expenditure for 2026 (C$5.6-C$5.8 billion vs. C$6.1-C$6.3 billion in 2025), and increased share buybacks (10% increase to C$275 million per month, projecting C$3.3 billion in repurchases in 2026). * **December 18, 2025:** Suncor increased its quarterly dividend to $0.60 per share (annualized $2.40), up from $0.41 previously. The company also beat quarterly expectations with EPS of $1.07 vs. $0.85 expected and revenue of $9.04 billion. * **November 4, 2025:** Suncor Energy reported third quarter 2025 results and increased its dividend. * **August 5, 2025:** Suncor Energy exceeded analyst expectations for Q2 2025 profit due to increased output, despite weak commodity prices. Quarterly upstream production increased to 808,100 bpd from 770,600 bpd a year earlier. Refinery throughput also increased 2.6% to 442,000 bpd, and refinery utilization improved from 92% to 95%. * **August 5, 2025:** Suncor declared a $0.57 quarterly dividend payable September 25, 2025. * **December 18, 2025:** Assenagon Asset Management S.A. significantly increased its stake in Suncor in Q3, buying an additional 1,067,270 shares, increasing its holdings by 4,513.9% to 1,090,914 shares worth approximately $45.6 million. This is above the $5 million threshold. * **August 25, 2025:** An article discusses Suncor's strong operational performance in the first half of 2025, with record production and refinery throughput, reduced capital spending, and lower debt, positioning it for potential upside if crude prices rebound. I can now synthesize these points into the requested 5 key reasons, focusing on positive news that would contribute to a stock increase.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SU Return-47%55%32%6%16%23%67%
Peers Return-29%77%57%2%3%16%142%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SU Win Rate33%67%50%58%75%75% 
Peers Win Rate42%67%63%52%52%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SU Max Drawdown-68%-0%0%-11%-2%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-2%0%-13%-6%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, CNQ, IMO, CVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,086 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven230.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven763 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,262 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven397.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to XOM, IMO, DEC, RRI, CVX


In The Past

Suncor Energy's stock fell -37.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -37.3% loss requires a 59.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Suncor Energy (SU)

Better Bets than Suncor Energy (SU)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.4%9.4%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.1%27.1%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.0%-3.0%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Suncor Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.Exxon Mo.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Mkt Price42.82117.41149.5231.8684.9916.9963.91
Mkt Cap51.9483.1289.966.542.830.459.2
Rev LTM53,301324,924186,97944,52146,24456,60254,952
Op Inc LTM7,95235,70815,0679,0225,0304,3288,487
FCF LTM8,03623,77515,4248,1244,7832,8248,080
FCF 3Y Avg7,66331,46218,1858,2843,9283,7437,974
CFO LTM13,94351,52031,84514,7706,5797,84914,356
CFO 3Y Avg13,69655,76834,25013,8745,7678,47113,785

Growth & Margins

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.Exxon Mo.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%-4.4%-3.6%8.3%-6.2%-4.8%-4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.4%-5.6%-6.2%-2.4%-5.6%-6.6%-5.6%
Rev Chg Q-2.4%-5.1%-1.5%6.4%-7.5%-4.5%-3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.6%-1.4%-0.4%1.5%-2.0%-1.1%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM14.9%11.0%8.1%20.3%10.9%7.6%10.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.2%12.7%11.2%21.9%12.4%9.0%12.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-4.3%-1.7%0.9%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM26.2%15.9%17.0%33.2%14.2%13.9%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.4%16.5%17.6%32.8%12.0%14.8%17.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.1%7.3%8.2%18.2%10.3%5.0%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.2%9.3%9.3%19.6%8.2%6.5%9.3%

Valuation

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.Exxon Mo.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Mkt Cap51.9483.1289.966.542.830.459.2
P/S0.91.51.61.51.00.51.2
P/EBIT6.5-13.57.68.87.17.6
P/E9.616.123.610.011.49.710.7
P/CFO3.69.49.54.56.93.95.7
Total Yield15.9%9.8%8.3%17.1%11.7%12.5%12.1%
Dividend Yield5.5%3.6%4.1%7.1%3.0%2.2%3.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg16.1%-6.2%12.0%9.9%11.5%11.5%
D/E0.3-0.10.30.10.30.3
Net D/E0.2-0.10.30.00.30.2

Returns

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.Exxon Mo.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
1M Rtn-2.6%-0.2%-2.3%-3.2%-13.4%-4.4%-2.9%
3M Rtn0.9%2.7%-5.6%-0.2%-9.6%-1.5%-0.8%
6M Rtn9.1%5.6%3.2%-2.7%6.0%18.4%5.8%
12M Rtn24.6%12.7%5.6%9.7%32.4%19.7%16.2%
3Y Rtn64.3%24.3%0.5%40.7%96.8%5.7%32.5%
1M Excs Rtn-3.4%-1.0%-3.1%-3.9%-14.2%-5.1%-3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-0.1%2.6%-6.2%-0.8%-10.4%-3.0%-1.9%
6M Excs Rtn-3.3%-6.8%-9.2%-15.1%-6.4%6.0%-6.6%
12M Excs Rtn10.4%-1.3%-9.4%-4.4%18.4%4.8%1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.4%-45.7%-68.5%-33.1%20.4%-63.1%-39.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining and Marketing30,95936,72822,91515,27222,304
Oil Sands18,56926,46818,39710,52217,430
Exploration and Production2,6893,7232,5001,7563,070
Corporate and Eliminations-11-8,583-4,680-2,888-4,460
Total52,20658,33639,13224,66238,344


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,273,579
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.7%
Average Daily Volume3,188,262
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.81
Basic Shares Quantity1,211,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202580520256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024227202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202480720246-K 6/30/2024
331202450820246-K 3/31/2024
12312023322202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202381520236-K 6/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
12312022307202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202280520226-K 6/30/2022
331202251020226-K 3/31/2022
12312021225202240-F 12/31/2021