Suncor Energy (SU)


Market Price (9/4/2026): $67.5 | Market Cap: $79.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas

Suncor Energy (SU)


Market Price (9/4/2026): $67.5
Market Cap: $79.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 13%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.6 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%

Key risks
SU key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and climate policy exposure due to its carbon-intensive oil sands operations, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.6 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
6 Key risks
SU key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and climate policy exposure due to its carbon-intensive oil sands operations, Show more.

SU in ETFs

Weight = SU's share of each fund

SCHF0.62%
CWI0.54%
FNDF0.32%

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 9/1/2026

Suncor Energy (SU) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Suncor Energy reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating strong operational performance. The company announced on August 4, 2026, that its earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) were $2.33, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.14 by 8.88%. Revenue for the quarter reached $13.41 billion, significantly above the $11.68 billion consensus. This strong financial performance was also highlighted by record adjusted funds from operations of $5.3 billion and record free funds flow of $3.38 per share, more than quadruple the prior year's quarter. Operationally, Suncor achieved record second-quarter refining throughput of 471,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and record refined product sales of 655,000 bbls/d.

2. The company enhanced shareholder returns through increased share repurchases and consistent dividends. Following its strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, Suncor declared a dividend and announced an increase in its monthly share repurchases to $500 million, up from $350 million, beginning in August 2026. This builds on Suncor's commitment to return 100% of excess funds to shareholders through buybacks, with a projected total of $3.3 billion for the fiscal year 2026. Between March 3, 2026, and July 30, 2026, Suncor repurchased 19,403,868 common shares for $1.675 billion.

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Updated on 9/1/2026

Suncor Energy (SU) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Suncor Energy reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating strong operational performance. The company announced on August 4, 2026, that its earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) were $2.33, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.14 by 8.88%. Revenue for the quarter reached $13.41 billion, significantly above the $11.68 billion consensus. This strong financial performance was also highlighted by record adjusted funds from operations of $5.3 billion and record free funds flow of $3.38 per share, more than quadruple the prior year's quarter. Operationally, Suncor achieved record second-quarter refining throughput of 471,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and record refined product sales of 655,000 bbls/d.

2. The company enhanced shareholder returns through increased share repurchases and consistent dividends. Following its strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, Suncor declared a dividend and announced an increase in its monthly share repurchases to $500 million, up from $350 million, beginning in August 2026. This builds on Suncor's commitment to return 100% of excess funds to shareholders through buybacks, with a projected total of $3.3 billion for the fiscal year 2026. Between March 3, 2026, and July 30, 2026, Suncor repurchased 19,403,868 common shares for $1.675 billion.

3. Elevated crude oil prices, driven by macroeconomic factors, significantly boosted the energy sector. Brent crude prices were observed approaching $91 per barrel (bbl) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude towards $91/bbl, notably in late August and early September 2026. This upward trend was largely attributed to escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit choke point, which caused supply concerns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also projected Brent crude oil spot prices to average around $85/bbl in fiscal Q3 2026.

4. Positive analyst sentiment and increased institutional investment supported the stock. Suncor Energy received a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from analysts, with an average price target of $80.25. The period also saw significant institutional accumulation of Suncor shares, with various 13F filings from major firms such as BlackRock, Alyeska, Corient, and Royal London indicating increased or new stakes in the company.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 9.5% change in SU stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120269032026Change
Stock Price ($)61.9567.809.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)54,46960,72911.5%
Net Income Margin (%)11.6%14.7%26.5%
P/E Multiple11.69.0-23.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,1891,1790.8%
Cumulative Contribution9.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SU9.5% 
Market (SPY)2.2%-13.7%
Sector (XLE)14.8%79.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.7% change in SU stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820269032026Change
Stock Price ($)55.7267.8021.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)52,37760,72915.9%
Net Income Margin (%)11.3%14.7%30.1%
P/E Multiple11.39.0-20.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2011,1791.9%
Cumulative Contribution21.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SU21.7% 
Market (SPY)13.0%-25.9%
Sector (XLE)16.3%80.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 69.9% change in SU stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120259032026Change
Stock Price ($)39.9067.8069.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)53,64160,72913.2%
Net Income Margin (%)10.6%14.7%39.3%
P/E Multiple8.69.03.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2251,1793.9%
Cumulative Contribution69.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SU69.9% 
Market (SPY)20.9%-13.2%
Sector (XLE)46.4%73.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 123.8% change in SU stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239032026Change
Stock Price ($)30.3067.80123.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)55,32960,7299.8%
Net Income Margin (%)11.0%14.7%34.1%
P/E Multiple6.59.036.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,3091,17911.0%
Cumulative Contribution123.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SU123.8% 
Market (SPY)77.7%24.3%
Sector (XLE)58.9%78.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
SU Return55%32%6%16%30%56%415%
Peers Return77%57%2%3%20%58%460%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SU Win Rate67%50%58%75%83%67% 
Peers Win Rate67%63%52%52%68%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SU Max Drawdown-32%-37%-21%-16%-22%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-30%-21%-22%-22%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, CNQ, IMO, CVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/3/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventSUS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-20.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven65 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-17.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven90 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven188.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven665 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1221 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven56 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-50.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven100.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven713 days15 days

Compare to XOM, CVX, CNQ, IMO, CVE

In The Past

Suncor Energy's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventSUS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-20.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven65 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven188.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven665 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1221 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-28.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven56 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-50.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven100.2%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven713 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-41.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.5%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven942 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-72.8%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven267.5%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven4926 days1085 days

Compare to XOM, CVX, CNQ, IMO, CVE

In The Past

Suncor Energy's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Suncor Energy (SU)

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) is a fully integrated Canadian energy company involved in all aspects of the petroleum industry, from upstream exploration and production to downstream refining and marketing. A significant portion of its operations focuses on developing petroleum resource basins, particularly the Athabasca oil sands in Canada, where it recovers and upgrades bitumen into refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, or prepares it for direct sale.

The company's main products include crude oil, bitumen, various refinery feedstocks, diesel fuel, and a wide array of petroleum and petrochemical products. Beyond its core oil and gas activities, Suncor also operates four wind farms, diversifying its energy portfolio. Its operations are organized into segments covering oil sands development, offshore and onshore exploration and production (including operations off Canada's east coast, the North Sea, Libya, and Syria), and the refining and marketing of products under the well-known Petro-Canada brand.

Suncor serves a broad customer base, marketing its refined petroleum products to retail, commercial, and industrial customers primarily across Canada through its extensive Petro-Canada network. Globally, the company is involved in the marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, leveraging its integrated value chain to meet diverse energy demands in both domestic and international markets.

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Canada's ExxonMobil

Chevron for Canadian oil sands

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  • Crude Oil and Bitumen: Suncor extracts and produces crude oil and bitumen from various onshore and offshore operations.
  • Refined Petroleum Products: The company refines crude oil into a wide range of petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, for various customers.
  • Petrochemical Products: Suncor also produces and markets petrochemicals, which are derived from petroleum and used in various industries.
  • Oil and Gas Exploration & Production: Suncor engages in the exploration, acquisition, development, and production of petroleum resources globally.
  • Oil Refining: The company operates refineries that process crude oil and intermediate feedstocks into diverse petroleum and petrochemical products.
  • Petroleum Product Marketing: Suncor markets its refined petroleum and petrochemical products to retail, commercial, and industrial customers, notably under the Petro-Canada brand.
  • Wind Power Generation: The company operates wind farms to generate and market renewable electricity.
  • Energy Trading: Suncor actively markets and trades in crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power commodities.
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Suncor Energy Inc. serves a diverse customer base, primarily through its Refining and Marketing segment. While it sells crude oil and other energy products to a variety of commercial and industrial entities, its direct customer engagement can be categorized into the following three main groups:

  1. Individual Consumers (Retail): Suncor markets refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel, directly to individual consumers primarily under its Petro-Canada brand through its extensive network of retail service stations across Canada. These customers purchase fuel for personal vehicles and convenience store items.
  2. Commercial Customers: Suncor supplies refined products, including various fuels and lubricants, to a wide range of commercial businesses. These customers typically operate fleets (e.g., trucking, aviation, marine, public transit), use fuel for agricultural machinery, or require petroleum products for their daily business operations.
  3. Industrial Customers: The company provides refined petroleum products, such as fuels and feedstock, to large industrial operations. These customers include various manufacturing plants, mining operations, and other heavy industries that require significant quantities of energy products for power generation, heating, or as raw materials in their production processes.

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Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Rich Kruger is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Suncor, a position he assumed in April 2023. He brings nearly 40 years of experience in the energy industry, including extensive work in the Canadian oil sands. Prior to joining Suncor, he served as Chairman, President, and CEO of Imperial Oil Limited from 2013 until his retirement in December 2019. Kruger also spent 39 years with ExxonMobil Corporation and its predecessor companies, holding various upstream and downstream assignments with responsibilities across the United States, the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. He was previously Vice President of ExxonMobil Corporation and president of ExxonMobil Production Company. He was recruited out of retirement to lead Suncor, prioritizing safety, reliability, and cost discipline, and implementing measures that included workforce reductions. He holds a mechanical engineering degree from the University of Minnesota and a Master of Business Administration from the University of Houston.

Troy Little, Chief Financial Officer

Troy Little is the Chief Financial Officer of Suncor, effective November 1, 2025. He was previously the Senior Vice President, External Affairs. In his role as CFO, he is responsible for all financial functions, including controllers, treasury, tax, internal audit, enterprise risk management, and information technology. Little holds Chartered Professional Accountant and Chartered Financial Analyst designations and possesses over 25 years of financial experience in investment banking, equity research, accounting, and financial management.

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Upstream

Peter Zebedee serves as the Executive Vice President, Upstream (also referred to as Oil Sands). He is responsible for all oil sands operations, including mining, in situ, drilling, upgrading, and East Coast operations. Zebedee has a strong background in engineering and operations management, having held leadership roles across various aspects of the oil and gas industry.

Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream

Dave Oldreive is the Executive Vice President, Downstream, having joined Suncor on June 19, 2023. He brings nearly 30 years of energy industry experience, including extensive expertise in Canadian refining and a deep understanding of the Canadian market. Oldreive is recognized for driving operational excellence and enhancing competitiveness, as well as for transforming culture and leadership. His career includes various roles in engineering, operations, supply, and corporate functions with ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil in Canada, the United States, and Singapore. Prior to Suncor, he was the head of ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery and previously the refinery manager for Imperial Oil's Strathcona refinery. He holds a mechanical engineering degree from Dalhousie University and a Master of Business Administration from Saint Mary's University.

Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement & Support Services

Shelley Powell is the Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement & Support Services. Her responsibilities include corporate environmental, health & safety, supply chain, operational risk management, technical & operations support, major capital projects, central development, technology development, governance, and sustainability. Powell has over two decades of experience in the energy sector, with extensive background in operations and leadership roles, and a foundation in chemical engineering.

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The key risks to Suncor Energy (SU) are:

  1. Commodity Price Volatility: Suncor Energy's profitability is highly susceptible to fluctuations in global crude oil and natural gas prices. Despite its integrated business model, which includes refining and marketing, significant drops in commodity prices directly impact its upstream oil sands segment, a core part of its operations. The capital-intensive nature of oil sands production means these operations are particularly sensitive to sustained periods of low oil prices.
  2. Climate Change Policy and Environmental Regulations: As a major producer in the carbon-intensive oil sands, Suncor faces substantial risks from evolving climate change policies and environmental regulations. Oil sands extraction generates higher greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional oil production. Stricter environmental policies, carbon pricing mechanisms, and increasing ESG-driven capital constraints could lead to higher operating costs, limit expansion opportunities, and potentially result in "stranded assets" if global decarbonization accelerates and reduces long-term oil demand.
  3. Operational Risks, Reliability, and Safety: Suncor's extensive oil sands mining, in-situ operations, and refining processes inherently carry significant operational risks. Historically, the company has faced challenges with operational reliability and its safety record. While management has focused on improvements, the complexity of these operations can lead to production shortfalls, increased costs from maintenance and incidents, and damage to its reputation. Furthermore, climate-related extreme weather events pose a direct operational threat, potentially forcing shutdowns and causing substantial revenue losses.

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The accelerating global energy transition, characterized by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and increasing deployment of renewable energy sources, poses a clear threat by significantly diminishing long-term demand for Suncor's core fossil fuel products (crude oil, refined petroleum). This shift, supported by evolving government policies and decreasing alternative energy costs, risks rendering a substantial portion of Suncor's high-carbon intensity oil sands reserves and refining infrastructure as stranded assets.

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Suncor Energy operates within several large addressable markets for its main products and services across Canada and globally.

Addressable Markets for Suncor Energy's Main Products and Services:

* Crude Oil (including Oil Sands): * The global crude oil market was valued at USD 2.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3.0 trillion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2024 to 2033. Another estimate places the global crude oil market at US$ 2,934 million in 2024, with a projection to reach approximately US$ 3,426 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2031. Global oil demand is expected to accelerate from 840 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, reaching a total consumption of 103.9 mb/d in 2025. * In Canada, oil sands production is projected to reach a record annual average of 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, a 5% increase from 2024. By 2030, this production could exceed 3.9 million b/d. As of 2025 year-to-date, Canadian oil production from oil sands stands at 3.4 million barrels per day, accounting for 59% of the country's total oil production. The North American oil exploration and production market, which includes crude oil and natural gas, is valued at USD 936.21 million in 2024 and is forecasted to grow to USD 1,256.85 million by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.30%. * Refined Petroleum Products: * The global refined petroleum products market was valued at USD 735.36 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 1,111.92 billion by 2033. Another assessment reported the global refined petroleum products market size at USD 1.75 trillion in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 2.31 trillion by 2033, at a CAGR of 3.1% during the forecast period (2026–2033). * The Canadian Petroleum Refining industry is estimated to have a market size of USD 102.3 billion in 2026. Exports of refined petroleum products from Canada reached a new high of 19.6 million cubic meters in 2024. The broader Canada Oil and Gas Downstream Market, which encompasses refined petroleum, is valued at USD 52 billion. * Natural Gas: * Canadian natural gas production reached new highs in 2024, averaging 18.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Production continued to be robust in the first five months of 2025, averaging 19.2 Bcf/d. Canada is the fifth-largest producer of natural gas globally. In 2022, Canadian natural gas demand was approximately 13 Bcf/d. The Canada compressed natural gas market generated a revenue of USD 4,072.7 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7,782.3 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.5% from 2025 to 2030. * Power (Wind): * The Canada wind energy market was valued at USD 10 billion, based on an installed capacity of approximately 18 gigawatts (GW). In terms of capacity, the market size is estimated at 19.77 GW in 2025 and is projected to reach 30.19 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.83%. Another report indicates the market size was 19.5 GW in 2025 and is estimated to reach 41.4 GW by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.74% during 2026-2034. The market size was 21.45 GW in 2026 and is projected to reach 32.36 GW by 2031, at a CAGR of 8.59% during the forecast period (2026-2031). In 2022, the Canada Wind Power Market was valued at USD 5.35 billion.

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For Suncor Energy (SU), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Increased Upstream Production: Suncor Energy anticipates growth in its upstream production, with a target to increase output by approximately 100,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) from 2023 to 2026. This growth is driven by continued strong performance from existing assets, 100% ownership of Fort Hills, and a full year of production from Terra Nova. Additionally, increased Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO) production at Base Plant is expected due to a shorter maintenance schedule.
  2. Enhanced Refining and Marketing Performance: Suncor aims for high refining utilization, with 2024 corporate guidance indicating 92% to 96% utilization. The company's integrated structure, which includes extracting, refining, and retailing crude oil, enables optimized operations and reduced breakeven costs. Higher utilization rates and improved margin capture across its downstream assets are expected to contribute to revenue growth.
  3. Operational Efficiency and Cost Reductions: A key priority for Suncor is delivering improved shareholder returns through focused cost reductions and increased operational efficiency. The company has demonstrated success in reducing its breakeven cost, with a US$10/barrel reduction in 2025 compared to 2023. These efficiency gains and cost controls are anticipated to translate into stronger cash flow generation and improved profitability, thereby boosting revenue.
  4. Strategic Capital Investments: Suncor's disciplined capital investment program is designed to enhance competitiveness and deliver long-term value. Planned investments for 2024 include mining fleet upgrades at Fort Hills and Base Mine, the replacement of Upgrader 1 coke drums at Base Plant, and the completion of the Base Plant co-generation project. Further development of the West White Rose and Syncrude Mildred Lake West Mine Extension projects are also part of these strategic investments, contributing to future production capacity and efficiency.

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Share Repurchases

  • Suncor Energy plans to repurchase C$3.3 billion in 2026, with monthly repurchases set at C$275 million.
  • Between March 3, 2025, and February 27, 2026, Suncor repurchased 54,150,911 shares for approximately C$3.075 billion under its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB).
  • The company renewed its NCIB to purchase up to 118,700,000 common shares, representing about 10% of its public float, between March 3, 2026, and March 2, 2027.

Inbound Investments

  • BlackRock acquired a 5.20% stake in Suncor, totaling 63.6 million shares for approximately $2.3 billion, in 2024 and 2025.
  • AIMCo (Alberta Investment Management Corporation) increased its stake by 43.3%, holding nearly 4 million shares, in 2024 and 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In October 2022, Suncor sold its entire wind and solar portfolio to ATCO for C$730 million, marking a strategic pivot away from distributed energy resources.
  • Suncor formed the Pathways Alliance with five other major energy firms to develop large-scale carbon capture projects.
  • The company has committed C$2.1 billion towards carbon capture technologies.

Capital Expenditures

  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are between C$5.6 billion and C$5.8 billion (US$4.1 billion and US$4.24 billion), which is a decrease from the 2025 forecast of C$6.1 billion to C$6.3 billion.
  • Major economic investments planned for 2026 include in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the Petro-Canada retail network optimization plan.
  • Capital spending in 2025 was C$5.7 billion, outperforming the midpoint of the original guidance by C$540 million.

Better Bets vs. Suncor Energy (SU)

Peer Outperformance in Integrated Oil & Gas

SU has outperformed 83% of its 6 Integrated Oil & Gas peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is IMO. Integrated Oil & Gas ranks 2nd of 7 industries in Energy by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Integrated Oil & Gas constituents that SU has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
86%
of 7 industry peers · 72.7% return
3Y
83%
of 6 industry peers · 122.0% return
5Y
83%
of 6 industry peers · 346.4% return
Integrated Oil & Gas peers with revenue growth within 4pp of SU's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
SU Suncor Energy 3.4% 9.0x 72.7%122.0%346.4%
IMO Imperial Oil -0.2% 15.3x 52.2%142.8%440.1% +94pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Energy sector, ranked by 5Y. Integrated Oil & Gas is SU's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 11 112.6%111.1%401.3% PBF 780% · MPC 644% · VLO 569%
Integrated Oil & Gas ← 7 50.5%57.7%252.3% IMO 440% · SU 346% · CVE 325%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 18 35.4%113.2%226.0% INSW 808% · LPG 757% · TRGP 624%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 34 63.8%25.2%126.2% FTI 1133% · SEI 746% · TDW 728%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 51 29.1%3.5%114.1% KGEI 8273% · OBE 7280% · EP 3023%
Coal & Consumable Fuels 14 28.1%56.1%110.4% EU 1164% · LEU 439% · CCJ 372%
Oil & Gas Drilling 7 83.2%0.8%103.8% VAL 198% · PDS 175% · NE 120%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.ExxonMob.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Mkt Price67.80162.21211.3251.14131.3132.8099.56
Mkt Cap79.9677.1416.3106.363.561.093.1
Rev LTM60,729361,060208,71151,39850,47259,56060,144
Op Inc LTM12,41338,72325,81811,9005,2639,29312,156
FCF LTM10,32730,55327,0129,8015,0357,47210,064
FCF 3Y Avg9,13330,69620,4189,4314,6955,4929,282
CFO LTM15,79659,72745,32117,8137,17612,35616,804
CFO 3Y Avg15,11156,29937,56215,6376,60610,32115,374

Growth & Margins

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.ExxonMob.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Rev Chg LTM13.2%9.6%11.2%17.2%7.0%4.1%10.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.4%-0.0%-0.5%7.2%-0.2%0.2%0.1%
Rev Chg Q49.1%44.1%51.4%77.9%46.8%47.5%48.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM11.5%10.8%12.3%17.2%11.2%11.5%11.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM52.6%3.1%64.1%10.6%-11.5%141.4%31.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg18.1%-12.8%0.0%6.8%-9.3%43.7%3.4%
Op Mgn LTM20.4%10.7%12.4%23.2%10.4%15.6%14.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.6%11.4%10.9%24.3%12.2%11.3%11.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.7%1.7%4.0%5.8%2.3%4.9%4.4%
CFO/Rev LTM26.0%16.5%21.7%34.7%14.2%20.7%21.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.8%16.4%18.9%34.0%13.4%17.5%18.2%
FCF/Rev LTM17.0%8.5%12.9%19.1%10.0%12.5%12.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.2%8.9%10.2%20.7%9.5%9.3%9.9%

Valuation

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.ExxonMob.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
Mkt Cap79.9677.1416.3106.363.561.093.1
P/S1.31.92.02.11.31.01.6
P/Op Inc6.417.516.18.912.16.610.5
P/EBIT6.214.713.06.711.66.79.2
P/E9.020.720.29.015.39.212.2
P/CFO5.111.39.26.08.84.97.4
Total Yield14.7%7.4%8.3%15.7%8.9%13.4%11.2%
Dividend Yield3.5%2.5%3.3%4.7%2.4%2.5%2.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.5%6.0%7.1%12.6%11.0%14.9%11.8%
D/E0.20.10.10.20.10.20.1
Net D/E0.10.00.10.10.00.10.1

Returns

SUXOMCVXCNQIMOCVEMedian
NameSuncor E.ExxonMob.Chevron Canadian.Imperial.Cenovus . 
1M Rtn5.2%6.0%12.0%10.7%3.1%14.2%8.4%
3M Rtn3.6%7.4%13.2%8.4%3.5%10.7%7.9%
6M Rtn18.5%9.0%13.3%15.1%11.1%42.4%14.2%
12M Rtn72.7%49.1%39.0%71.4%52.2%104.6%61.8%
3Y Rtn122.0%57.7%45.8%81.4%142.8%78.8%80.1%
1M Excs Rtn7.6%7.4%14.0%14.0%4.4%18.0%10.8%
3M Excs Rtn1.4%5.2%11.0%6.3%1.3%8.6%5.8%
6M Excs Rtn5.1%-4.4%-0.1%1.7%-2.3%29.0%0.8%
12M Excs Rtn52.6%29.0%18.8%51.3%32.0%84.5%41.7%
3Y Excs Rtn53.8%-9.2%-22.5%11.6%78.2%12.9%12.3%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Refining and Marketing30,67131,34130,95936,72822,915
Oil Sands27,32429,26018,56926,46818,397
Exploration and Production2,5092,7982,6893,7232,500
Corporate and Eliminations-8,127-8,518-11-8,583-4,680
Total52,37754,88152,20658,33639,132


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20032002200120001999
Oil Sands8931,184388508287
Natural Gas13076196201 
Energy Marketing and Refining5377   
Sunoco  11011252
Exploration and Production    77
Total1,0761,337694822416


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20212020201920182017
Refining and Marketing2,1788663,0003,1542,658
Oil Sands2,147-3,796-4279451,009
Exploration and Production1,285-8321,005807732
Corporate and Eliminations-1,491-557-679-1,61359
Total4,119-4,3192,8993,2934,458


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20112010200920072005
Oil Sands44,21740,24637,55318,05611,835
Exploration and Production14,290    
Refining and Marketing13,15011,77810,568  
Corporate and Eliminations3,1202,0661,938  
Discontinued operations 756   
International and Offshore 12,232   
Natural Gas 3,0915,0031,8051,305
East Coast Canda  4,771  
International  9,913  
Energy Marketing and Refining   4,5061,952
Total74,77770,16969,74624,36715,092


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$67.80 
Market Cap ($ Bil)79.9 
First Trading Date12/01/1993 
Distance from 52W High-2.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$62.91$57.55
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA7.8%17.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility33.1%27.0%
Downside Capture-72.47-77.65
Upside Capture-48.852.76
Correlation (SPY)-13.2%-12.5%
SU Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.94-1.08-0.25-0.55-0.260.44
Up Beta-1.310.03-0.74-1.05-0.780.51
Down Beta-0.90-1.710.540.250.460.86
Up Capture-60%-31%-16%-24%2%10%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days12253371139410
Down Capture-93%-317%-67%-134%-129%9%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days9173156112337

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SU
SU73.1%27.0%2.00-
Sector ETF (XLE)49.8%21.7%1.7773.7%
Equity (SPY)21.2%12.8%1.23-13.0%
Gold (GLD)25.1%29.1%0.77-0.7%
Commodities (DBC)42.9%20.4%1.6460.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)10.7%13.6%0.50-7.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-31.0%43.5%-0.737.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SU
SU35.2%32.7%0.97-
Sector ETF (XLE)26.3%25.7%0.8981.7%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.2%0.5833.7%
Gold (GLD)19.6%18.8%0.8513.8%
Commodities (DBC)11.0%19.5%0.4462.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.0%18.9%0.0024.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.5%52.6%0.3814.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SU
SU13.6%37.0%0.45-
Sector ETF (XLE)10.7%29.6%0.4081.5%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7345.2%
Gold (GLD)12.5%16.3%0.637.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%18.1%0.3658.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2036.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.1%66.1%1.0313.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8142026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 731202676.6%
Average Daily Volume5.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,179.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative000
Median Positive   
Median Negative   
Max Positive   
Max Negative   
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative000
Median Positive   
Median Negative   
Max Positive   
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/20266-K
03/31/202605/06/20266-K
12/31/202502/26/202640-F
09/30/202511/04/20256-K
06/30/202508/05/20256-K
03/31/202505/08/20256-K
12/31/202402/27/202540-F
09/30/202411/13/20246-K
06/30/202408/07/20246-K
03/31/202405/08/20246-K
12/31/202303/22/202440-F
09/30/202311/09/20236-K
06/30/202308/15/20236-K
03/31/202305/09/20236-K
12/31/202203/07/202340-F
09/30/202211/03/20226-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/20266-K
03/31/202605/06/20266-K
12/31/202502/26/202640-F
09/30/202511/04/20256-K
06/30/202508/05/20256-K
03/31/202505/08/20256-K
12/31/202402/27/202540-F
09/30/202411/13/20246-K
06/30/202408/07/20246-K
03/31/202405/08/20246-K
12/31/202303/22/202440-F
09/30/202311/09/20236-K
06/30/202308/15/20236-K
03/31/202305/09/20236-K
12/31/202203/07/202340-F
09/30/202211/03/20226-K
06/30/202208/05/20226-K
03/31/202205/10/20226-K
12/31/202102/25/202240-F
09/30/202110/28/20216-K
06/30/202107/29/20216-K
03/31/202105/04/20216-K
12/31/202002/26/202140-F
09/30/202010/29/20206-K
06/30/202007/23/20206-K
03/31/202005/06/20206-K
12/31/201902/28/202040-F
09/30/201910/31/20196-K

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 4, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Elliott Investment Management L.P.$3.5 Bil21.9%19Hold13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$121.7 Mil6.5%43ADD +153.0%13F
Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd.$89.1 Mil6.4%33Hold13F
Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC$15.5 Mil6.0%37TRIM -39.7%13F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$27.4 Mil5.8%36TRIM -13.0%13F
Walter Public Investments Inc.$13.6 Mil3.2%48New13F
Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC$58.8 Mil1.6%27TRIM -50.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Walter Public Investments Inc.$13.6 Mil3.2%48New13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$121.7 Mil6.5%43ADD +153.0%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC$58.8 Mil1.6%27TRIM -50.2%13F
Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC$15.5 Mil6.0%37TRIM -39.7%13F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$27.4 Mil5.8%36TRIM -13.0%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Elliott Investment Management L.P.$3.5 Bil21.9%19Hold13F
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC$121.7 Mil6.5%43ADD +153.0%13F
Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd.$89.1 Mil6.4%33Hold13F
Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC$58.8 Mil1.6%27TRIM -50.2%13F
Rempart Asset Management Inc.$27.4 Mil5.8%36TRIM -13.0%13F
Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC$15.5 Mil6.0%37TRIM -39.7%13F
Walter Public Investments Inc.$13.6 Mil3.2%48New13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/3/2026