Noble (NE)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $38.36 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Noble (NE)
Market Price (7/8/2026): $38.36Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% Key risksNE key risks include [1] operational challenges and margin pressures following its Diamond acquisition, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Key risksNE key risks include [1] operational challenges and margin pressures following its Diamond acquisition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Noble (NE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitical De-escalation.
Noble's stock experienced a significant downturn in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in June, primarily due to a substantial drop in crude oil prices. This decline, which saw crude oil prices tumble over 5%, was triggered by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Brent crude prices dropped approximately 3% to around $74/barrel, negatively impacting the offshore drilling sector and energy stocks broadly.
2. Broader Energy Sector Weakness and Market Sentiment Shift.
Beyond the direct impact of falling oil prices, Noble's stock suffered from a general market shift and sector rotation away from energy companies during fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in Noble's shares occurred amidst broader market weakness, with major indices like the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 also experiencing declines. This indicated that investors were reallocating capital out of the energy sector, contributing to the downward pressure on Noble's stock.
Show more
Noble (NE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitical De-escalation.
Noble's stock experienced a significant downturn in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in June, primarily due to a substantial drop in crude oil prices. This decline, which saw crude oil prices tumble over 5%, was triggered by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Brent crude prices dropped approximately 3% to around $74/barrel, negatively impacting the offshore drilling sector and energy stocks broadly.
2. Broader Energy Sector Weakness and Market Sentiment Shift.
Beyond the direct impact of falling oil prices, Noble's stock suffered from a general market shift and sector rotation away from energy companies during fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in Noble's shares occurred amidst broader market weakness, with major indices like the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 also experiencing declines. This indicated that investors were reallocating capital out of the energy sector, contributing to the downward pressure on Noble's stock.
Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026
Noble (NE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitical De-escalation.
Noble's stock experienced a significant downturn in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in June, primarily due to a substantial drop in crude oil prices. This decline, which saw crude oil prices tumble over 5%, was triggered by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Brent crude prices dropped approximately 3% to around $74/barrel, negatively impacting the offshore drilling sector and energy stocks broadly.
2. Broader Energy Sector Weakness and Market Sentiment Shift.
Beyond the direct impact of falling oil prices, Noble's stock suffered from a general market shift and sector rotation away from energy companies during fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in Noble's shares occurred amidst broader market weakness, with major indices like the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 also experiencing declines. This indicated that investors were reallocating capital out of the energy sector, contributing to the downward pressure on Noble's stock.
3. Persistent Analyst Caution and Concerns Over Upstream Spending.
Analyst sentiment contributed to the negative trend, with a consensus "Hold" rating for Noble Corporation throughout the period and some analysts forecasting a decline in the stock price. For instance, JPMorgan downgraded Noble from 'Overweight' to 'Neutral' in December 2025 as part of its 2026 outlook for the oilfield services and equipment sector, citing caution due to reduced upstream spending in a low-price environment. The analysts also noted Noble's history of falling below earnings estimates in prior quarters, which likely maintained a cautious stance among investors regarding the company's future profitability and growth prospects amidst a challenging industry backdrop.
Show less
Noble (NE) stock has lost about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitical De-escalation.
Noble's stock experienced a significant downturn in fiscal Q2 2026, particularly in June, primarily due to a substantial drop in crude oil prices. This decline, which saw crude oil prices tumble over 5%, was triggered by reports of a potential U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Brent crude prices dropped approximately 3% to around $74/barrel, negatively impacting the offshore drilling sector and energy stocks broadly.
2. Broader Energy Sector Weakness and Market Sentiment Shift.
Beyond the direct impact of falling oil prices, Noble's stock suffered from a general market shift and sector rotation away from energy companies during fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in Noble's shares occurred amidst broader market weakness, with major indices like the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 also experiencing declines. This indicated that investors were reallocating capital out of the energy sector, contributing to the downward pressure on Noble's stock.
3. Persistent Analyst Caution and Concerns Over Upstream Spending.
Analyst sentiment contributed to the negative trend, with a consensus "Hold" rating for Noble Corporation throughout the period and some analysts forecasting a decline in the stock price. For instance, JPMorgan downgraded Noble from 'Overweight' to 'Neutral' in December 2025 as part of its 2026 outlook for the oilfield services and equipment sector, citing caution due to reduced upstream spending in a low-price environment. The analysts also noted Noble's history of falling below earnings estimates in prior quarters, which likely maintained a cautious stance among investors regarding the company's future profitability and growth prospects amidst a challenging industry backdrop.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.0% change in NE stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.54 | 38.36 | -21.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,286 | 3,197 | -2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.6 | 26.7 | -25.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 159 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NE | -21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | -4.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | -10.8% | 53.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.8% change in NE stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.63 | 38.36 | 38.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,448 | 3,197 | -7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.4 | 26.7 | 37.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 159 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 38.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 10.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 23.0% | 53.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.6% change in NE stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 207.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.14 | 38.36 | 52.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,295 | 3,197 | -3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.0% | 7.2% | -48.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.7 | 26.7 | 207.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 159 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 52.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 20.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 31.9% | 59.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.7% change in NE stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.28 | 38.36 | 8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3,197 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 26.7 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 159 | -55.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 44.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 47.1% | 67.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NE Return | 2% | 50% | 30% | -32% | -3% | 35% | 77% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 74% | 1% | -29% | -3% | 32% | 128% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NE Win Rate | 29% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 72% | 33% | 42% | 60% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NE Max Drawdown | - | -16% | -22% | -41% | -46% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -47% | -39% | -45% | -50% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RIG, VAL, SDRL, PTEN, NBR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 799 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Noble's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Noble's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Noble (NE)
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Noble Corporation (NE) is a prominent offshore drilling contractor that provides essential contract drilling services to the global oil and natural gas industry. The company specializes in deploying its advanced fleet of drilling rigs to explore for and produce hydrocarbons from beneath the world's oceans, playing a crucial role in the upstream segment of the energy sector.
Noble's main products and services revolve around the operation of high-specification drilling units. Its fleet primarily consists of sophisticated drillships, which are capable of ultra-deepwater operations for complex exploration and development projects, and versatile jackup rigs, designed for drilling in various water depths on the continental shelf. These assets, coupled with experienced drilling crews, enable energy companies to efficiently and safely drill wells in challenging offshore environments.
The company's primary customers are a diverse group of major international oil companies, national oil companies, and independent energy producers. Noble operates globally, with its drilling units deployed across key offshore basins around the world, supporting its clients' efforts to discover and develop new oil and gas reserves.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Noble (NE):
- Like United Rentals (URI), but for massive offshore oil drilling rigs.
- A specialized Bechtel (the global engineering and construction firm) for deep-sea oil and gas well construction.
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- Offshore Drilling Services: Noble provides contract drilling services for oil and natural gas exploration and production to a global customer base.
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Major Customers of Noble Corporation (NE)
Noble Corporation (NE) is an offshore drilling contractor that provides contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. Its primary customers are major oil and gas exploration and production companies.
Based on its latest regulatory filings, Noble's major customers in 2023 included:
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Robert W. Eifler, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Eifler was named President and Chief Executive Officer of Noble in May 2020. He previously served in various senior commercial and marketing roles within Noble, including Senior Vice President, Commercial, and Senior Vice President, Marketing and Contracts. From November 2013 to March 2015, Mr. Eifler worked for Hercules Offshore, Inc., an offshore driller, as Director, International Marketing. He originally joined Noble in February 2005. Under his leadership as CEO, Noble completed strategic mergers and acquisitions, including Maersk Drilling in 2022 and Diamond Offshore in 2024.
Richard B. Barker, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Barker was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Noble in January 2024, after serving as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since March 2020. Prior to joining Noble, Mr. Barker held investment banking positions specializing in oilfield services and equipment at Moelis & Company from 2019 to 2020, and at JPMorgan Chase & Co. before 2019. His career in investment banking also included assignments at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. and Goldman Sachs & Company.
Jennie Howard, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary
Ms. Howard was named Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary in April 2023. Before her tenure at Noble, she served as Vice President, Assistant General Counsel, and Assistant Corporate Secretary at Kraton Corporation, a specialty chemicals company, from September 2015 to March 2022. Ms. Howard also worked as a corporate associate with Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP.
Rodney Kawaja, Senior Vice President of Operations
Mr. Kawaja was appointed Senior Vice President of Operations of Noble in October 2022. He brings over 25 years of experience in offshore rig operations and project management. Previously, he was the Regional Manager – Western Hemisphere, where he oversaw Noble's shore-based and offshore operations across North and South America from August 2014 until becoming Vice President of Operations in October 2020. Mr. Kawaja has held various roles within Noble since joining in 1996, including Operations Manager, Drilling Superintendent, and Project Manager.
Blake Denton, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts
Mr. Denton was named Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts of Noble in October 2022. He previously served as Director of Marketing and Contracts for Noble from January 2017 until March 2020, a role in which he led the company's marketing and contracts efforts for the Middle East and India. Before that, Mr. Denton held positions as Project Director and Project Manager for Noble.
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The key risks to Noble (symbol: NE) primarily revolve around the inherent volatility and capital-intensive nature of the offshore drilling industry, coupled with increasing external pressures.
- Cyclical Volatility in Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: Noble's financial performance is intrinsically linked to the highly cyclical nature of commodity prices, particularly crude oil and natural gas. Fluctuations in these prices directly influence the capital spending and exploration and production (E&P) budgets of its customers, which are major oil and gas companies. A decline in oil and gas prices can lead customers to reduce or cancel drilling programs, directly impacting Noble's day rates, rig utilization, and overall revenue. The offshore contract drilling industry is characterized by intense price competition and high capital costs, making it particularly vulnerable to market downturns.
- High Capital Expenditure Requirements and Debt Load: Operating in a capital-intensive sector, Noble faces significant ongoing capital expenditure demands for maintaining, upgrading, and modernizing its fleet of drilling rigs. The company's post-merger high debt load can strain cash flows, potentially limiting its ability to invest in growth opportunities or navigate industry downturns effectively. Managing this substantial debt, including exploring refinancing opportunities, remains a constant pressure point for the company. The integration of new assets and management of older ones can also lead to increased operating expenses.
- Increasing ESG Pressures and Regulatory Scrutiny: Noble is subject to growing pressure from regulators, investors, and rating agencies to demonstrate strong sustainability and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Failure to meet public ESG targets, such as carbon-intensity reduction goals, could negatively impact the company's reputation, restrict its access to capital, and increase compliance costs. Furthermore, navigating divergent stakeholder views on sustainability initiatives across different jurisdictions can introduce legal, political, and reputational complexities, potentially affecting long-term strategic and financial planning.
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The accelerating global energy transition away from fossil fuels, driven by rapid advancements and cost reductions in renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, battery storage), supportive government policies for decarbonization, and increasing investor and public pressure for sustainable energy solutions, poses a clear emerging threat to Noble's core business. While the energy transition is a long-term trend, the speed at which these alternatives are becoming competitive and replacing traditional fossil fuel demand could significantly diminish the future need for offshore drilling services faster than anticipated, thereby eroding Noble's addressable market and demand for its rigs.
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Noble Corporation (symbol: NE) primarily operates as an offshore drilling contractor, providing contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. The company's main products and services revolve around its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, specifically high-specification floating rigs (drillships and semi-submersibles) and jackup rigs.
The addressable markets for Noble's main products and services are as follows:
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Global Offshore Drilling Market: The global offshore drilling market size was valued at approximately USD 43.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 87.50 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.87% during the forecast period. Other estimates place the market at USD 42.40 billion in 2025, reaching USD 60.76 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 4.60%. Another source indicates a market size of USD 31.22 billion in 2025, climbing to USD 41.68 billion by 2031 with a 4.90% CAGR.
- Regional Market Sizes for Offshore Drilling:
- Asia Pacific: This region dominated the global market with an approximate share of 41.36% (USD 18.11 billion) in 2025, expected to reach USD 19.67 billion in 2026.
- North America: Accounted for over 40% of the market share in 2025. The U.S. offshore drilling market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 3.75 billion by 2032.
- Middle East & Africa: Captured 22.42% of the global market in 2025, generating USD 9.82 billion in revenue, and is projected to reach USD 10.88 billion in 2026.
- Europe: The offshore drilling market in Europe is anticipated to reach USD 22.18 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 8.42%.
- Global Drillship Market: The global drillship market size is estimated to grow from USD 5.57 billion in 2025 to USD 6.02 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 7.9%, further expanding to USD 8.08 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 7.6%. Other reports suggest the global drillship market was valued at USD 3.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 8.5%. Another estimate for the drillships market size in 2025 was USD 3,559.36 million, expected to increase to USD 4,437.41 million by 2032. Drillships contribute significantly to the overall offshore drilling market, holding a 34.3% share in 2025.
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Global Jackup Rig Market: The global jack-up rigs market size was estimated at USD 16.2 million in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 17.09 million in 2025 to USD 29.28 million by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.53%. Other sources indicate the global jack-up rigs market size was valued at USD 3.03 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 4.71 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 5%. Another report valued the global jack-up rig market size at USD 4.0 billion in 2022 and projected it to reach USD 6.8 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 6.1%.
- Regional Market Sizes for Jackup Rigs:
- Asia-Pacific: This region is identified as the largest market for Jackup Rigs, with a market size of USD 7.8 billion. It holds 28% of the global Jack-Up Rig Market.
- North America: The market size for Jackup Rigs is projected at USD 4.86 billion. The North American Jackup rigs market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.2%. The USA Jack-Up Rig Market represents approximately 18% of global deployment.
- Europe: The Jackup Rigs market in Europe has a market size of USD 3.24 billion.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Noble (NE) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Contract Backlog: Noble has demonstrated consistent growth in its contract backlog, providing strong visibility into future revenue streams. The company's total backlog increased to $7.5 billion at the end of 2025, a significant rise from $6.1 billion a year prior. This includes substantial new contract awards, such as $1.3 billion announced in January 2026 and a $473 million deal with Aker BP in Norway.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Fleet Optimization: Noble has actively pursued strategic acquisitions, such as the $1.6 billion acquisition of Diamond Offshore Drilling in June 2024, to expand its operational scale and market presence. Concurrently, the company is optimizing its fleet by divesting non-core assets, like the sale of five jack-up rigs to Borr Drilling, and focusing on high-specification deepwater and ultra-deepwater drilling units that command higher demand and day rates.
- Strong Demand for High-Specification Rigs: The offshore drilling market is experiencing robust demand, particularly for high-specification 7th generation drillships and harsh-environment jackups. This demand is fueled by significant deepwater discoveries in regions like Guyana, Brazil, Suriname, Namibia, and Mozambique. While some near-term fluctuations are noted, a substantial increase in deepwater activity and overall rig demand is anticipated from 2027 onwards.
- Global Offshore Drilling Market Expansion: The broader offshore drilling market is projected for considerable growth over the next decade. The global offshore drilling market size is forecast to grow from USD 42.86 billion in 2025 to approximately USD 86.09 billion by 2034, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.07%. This expansion is driven by increasing global demand for oil and gas, the depletion of onshore reserves, advancements in drilling technologies, and new deepwater projects initiated worldwide.
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Share Repurchases
- Noble repurchased 0.7 million shares for $20 million in 2025.
- In 2024, Noble returned approximately $525 million to shareholders, which included $300 million in share repurchases and $278 million in dividends.
- Noble announced a second $400 million share repurchase authorization in 2024.
Share Issuance
- In December 2023, Noble issued 16,507 new A ordinary shares, which included 5,152 from warrant exercises for approximately $57,026.73 and 11,355 to employees for vesting restricted stock units at no cost.
- Noble issued 45 new A ordinary shares from warrant exercises for approximately $1,040.85 in September 2024.
- In November 2022, 2,188 new A ordinary shares were issued from warrant exercises, generating proceeds of approximately $35,702.07.
Outbound Investments
- Noble completed the $1.5 billion acquisition of Diamond Offshore in September 2024, expanding its fleet and increasing its contract backlog by approximately $2.0 billion.
- In November 2021, Noble acquired Maersk Drilling for $2.0 billion.
- Noble completed the divestiture of five jackup rigs for $360 million in January 2026, as part of its strategy to optimize its fleet and focus on high-specification floaters.
Capital Expenditures
- Noble's capital expenditures for 2025 were $500.1 million.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be between $590 million and $640 million, including an estimated $160 million project capital for the Noble GreatWhite and approximately $25 million of reimbursable capital.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on high-specification floaters and supporting existing long-term contracts.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Noble Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 15% | 04/28/2026 | |
| Noble Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| How Low Can Noble Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
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| Noble vs Crescent Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
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| ARTICLES | ||
| Noble Stock Surges 15%, With A 5-Day Winning Spree | 04/28/2026 | |
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/27/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,214 |
| Op Inc LTM | 317 |
| FCF LTM | 197 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 137 |
| CFO LTM | 768 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 574 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -27.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.8 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 1.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $38.36 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $46.43 | $38.10 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -17.4% | 0.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.7% | 41.9% |
| Downside Capture | 138.13 | 58.88 |
| Upside Capture | -22.50 | 86.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.7% | 20.9% |
NE Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.34 | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| Up Beta | -1.93 | -1.22 | -1.16 | -0.77 | 0.09 | 1.13 |
| Down Beta | -1.04 | -0.47 | -0.38 | 0.74 | 1.13 | 1.77 |
| Up Capture | -28% | -52% | -3% | 87% | 87% | 56% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 14 | 25 | 63 | 125 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 184% | 160% | 167% | 35% | 67% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 26 | 37 | 61 | 123 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 42.8% | 41.8% | 0.96 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 28.7% | 20.9% | 1.11 | 58.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.5% | 1.22 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.0% | 27.8% | 0.73 | 11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.9% | 18.6% | 0.97 | 34.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.8% | 42.8% | -1.14 | 22.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 9.6% | 41.4% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 19.5% | 25.9% | 0.68 | 63.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 9.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 19.5% | 0.29 | 42.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.2% | 53.5% | 0.43 | 13.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 4.8% | 41.3% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.3% | 29.6% | 0.36 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.2% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 43.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.9% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/27/2026 | 8.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.4% | 2.9% | 6.2% |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.5% | -1.9% | 0.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | 2.1% | 0.3% | 9.0% |
| 4/28/2025 | 7.0% | 5.6% | 19.1% |
| 2/18/2025 | -0.1% | -6.6% | -13.8% |
| 11/5/2024 | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.5% | -15.6% | -19.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 2.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -5.3% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -5.5% | -15.6% | -19.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/27/2026 | 8.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.4% | 2.9% | 6.2% |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.5% | -1.9% | 0.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | 2.1% | 0.3% | 9.0% |
| 4/28/2025 | 7.0% | 5.6% | 19.1% |
| 2/18/2025 | -0.1% | -6.6% | -13.8% |
| 11/5/2024 | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.5% | -15.6% | -19.8% |
| 5/6/2024 | -0.9% | 1.8% | -7.2% |
| 2/22/2024 | -1.9% | -5.3% | 9.0% |
| 10/31/2023 | 5.1% | 2.2% | -0.3% |
| 8/2/2023 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.1% | -2.5% | 9.5% |
| 2/27/2023 | 8.4% | 16.0% | 1.6% |
| 11/3/2022 | 6.1% | 11.2% | 7.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 2.6% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -5.3% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.3% | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -5.5% | -15.6% | -19.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.90 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 940.00 Mil | 980.00 Mil | 1.02 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 980.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 615.00 Mil | 640.00 Mil | 665.00 Mil | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 615.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | -10.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 940.00 Mil | 980.00 Mil | 1.02 Bil | -11.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 590.00 Mil | 615.00 Mil | 640.00 Mil | 40.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 437.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/27/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total Revenue | 3.23 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.27 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.10 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.12 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 425.00 Mil | 437.50 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 425.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eifler, Robert W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 45.51 | 50,000 | 2,275,390 | 54,328,476 | Form |
| 2 | Hirshberg, Al J | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 52.62 | 5,000 | 263,088 | 1,462,924 | Form | |
| 3 | Sledge, Charles M | Daughter | Sell | 5132026 | 51.61 | 724 | 37,364 | 70,187 | Form | |
| 4 | Denton, Blake | SVP, Marketing & Contracts | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 49.31 | 30,000 | 1,479,330 | 1,475,730 | Form |
| 5 | Kawaja, Joey M | SVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 49.85 | 40,000 | 1,994,200 | 1,997,740 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eifler, Robert W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 45.51 | 50,000 | 2,275,390 | 54,328,476 | Form |
| 2 | Hirshberg, Al J | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 52.62 | 5,000 | 263,088 | 1,462,924 | Form | |
| 3 | Sledge, Charles M | Daughter | Sell | 5132026 | 51.61 | 724 | 37,364 | 70,187 | Form | |
| 4 | Denton, Blake | SVP, Marketing & Contracts | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 49.31 | 30,000 | 1,479,330 | 1,475,730 | Form |
| 5 | Kawaja, Joey M | SVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 49.85 | 40,000 | 1,994,200 | 1,997,740 | Form |
| 6 | Howard, Jennie | SVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 4302026 | 51.08 | 2,486 | 126,975 | 800,667 | Form |
| 7 | Alting, Caroline | SVP, Ops. Excellence & Sust | Direct | Sell | 4302026 | 52.75 | 15,340 | 809,139 | 430,943 | Form |
| 8 | Barker, Richard B | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 46.63 | 150,000 | 6,994,494 | 7,683,732 | Form |
| 9 | Eifler, Robert W | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 46.62 | 100,000 | 4,661,764 | 57,984,332 | Form |
| 10 | Denton, Blake | SVP, Marketing & Contracts | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 45.17 | 19,334 | 873,301 | 2,706,852 | Form |
| 11 | Barker, Richard B | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 42.96 | 20,000 | 859,200 | 13,522,992 | Form |
| 12 | Sledge, Charles M | Daughter | Sell | 2202026 | 44.63 | 2,083 | 92,971 | 93,015 | Form | |
| 13 | Ipsen, Mikkel | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 43.56 | 3,453 | 150,413 | 516,360 | Form |
| 14 | Denton, Blake | SVP, Marketing & Contracts | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 43.50 | 23,255 | 1,011,592 | 3,447,854 | Form |
| 15 | Kawaja, Joey M | SVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 43.51 | 19,725 | 858,235 | 3,484,020 | Form |
| 16 | Howard, Jennie | SVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 42.00 | 6,094 | 255,948 | 762,804 | Form |
| 17 | Alting, Caroline | SVP, Ops. Excellence & Sust | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 43.60 | 4,195 | 182,902 | 1,025,036 | Form |
| 18 | Denton, Blake | SVP, Marketing & Contracts | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 29.78 | 29,729 | 885,330 | 2,477,160 | Form |
| 19 | Kawaja, Joey M | SVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 28.62 | 35,000 | 1,001,700 | 2,245,640 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/7/2026