Noble (NE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.565 | Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Noble (NE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $32.565Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 8.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 8.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of Noble (symbol: NE) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Robust Contract Awards and Backlog Growth: Noble consistently announced significant new contract awards throughout the period, bolstering its backlog and providing increased revenue visibility. The company secured approximately $380 million in new contracts by early August, increasing its backlog to $6.9 billion. This was followed by an additional $740 million in new contract value announced with the third-quarter results, expanding the backlog to $7.0 billion. These awards demonstrate strong demand for Noble's drilling services and future revenue potential.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: On October 27, 2025, Noble reported its third-quarter 2025 results, which included a net loss of $21 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.13. However, the company also reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.19 and adjusted EBITDA of $254 million. While the net loss might have initially been a concern, the accompanying strong contract wins likely offset some negative sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NE Return | - | - | 50% | 30% | -32% | 5% | 40% |
| Peers Return | -30% | 1503% | 99% | 20% | -9% | 12% | 2656% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NE Win Rate | - | 33% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 49% | 68% | 43% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NE Max Drawdown | - | - | 0% | -6% | -37% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -9% | -8% | -22% | -25% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FTI, WFRD, VAL, HP, PTEN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FTI, WFRD, VAL, HP, PTEN
In The Past
Noble's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2023. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Noble Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | |
| Noble vs Cal-Maine Foods: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | |
| Noble vs Crescent Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | |
| How Does Noble Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | |
| NE Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| Noble (NE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | |
| Noble (NE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Noble (NE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Noble (NE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Noble (NE) Revenue Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Noble
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,143 |
| Op Inc LTM | 592 |
| FCF LTM | 335 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 322 |
| CFO LTM | 768 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 732 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.1 |
| P/E | 10.4 |
| P/CFO | 5.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hirshberg Al J. | 3132025 | Buy | 23.00 | 5,000 | 115,000 | 669,990 | Form | |
| 1 | SLEDGE CHARLES M | 2242025 | Buy | 27.83 | 8,992 | 250,247 | 1,067,587 | Form | |
| 2 | Barker Richard B. | EVP and CFO | 2202025 | Buy | 27.94 | 8,000 | 223,520 | 8,340,230 | Form |
| 3 | Eifler Robert W. | President & CEO | 2202025 | Buy | 27.85 | 12,568 | 350,019 | 34,432,765 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |