Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  Key risks
NE key risks include [1] operational challenges and margin pressures following its Diamond acquisition, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 7.9%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Energy Security & Supply, US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Deepwater Offshore Drilling, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
7 Key risks
NE key risks include [1] operational challenges and margin pressures following its Diamond acquisition, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Noble Corporation's (NE) stock experienced an approximate 12.7% upward movement from its low in the period starting October 31, 2025, to a high point in early December 2025. This fluctuation was influenced by several key developments.

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Results and Increased Backlog: On October 27, 2025, Noble Corporation announced its third-quarter 2025 results, revealing approximately $740 million in new contract value since August and an increase in its backlog to $7.0 billion. The company also declared a $0.50 per share cash dividend and reported a net income of $108 million for the quarter.

2. Significant Institutional Investment by BlackRock: On October 31, 2025, BlackRock, Inc. expanded its stake in Noble Corp PLC by acquiring an additional 2,615,896 shares at $29.35 per share, increasing its total holdings to 17,858,117 shares. This substantial acquisition by a major institutional investor signaled confidence in Noble's potential within the offshore drilling sector.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.7% change in NE stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
103120251142026Change
Stock Price ($)28.9132.5812.68%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3448.503448.500.00%
Net Income Margin (%)6.57%6.57%0.00%
P/E Multiple20.2622.8212.68%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)158.83158.830.00%
Cumulative Contribution12.68%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 1/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NE12.7% 
Market (SPY)1.2%15.8%
Sector (XLE)9.1%66.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 25.6% change in NE stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 155.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
73120251142026Change
Stock Price ($)25.9532.5825.57%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3295.223448.504.65%
Net Income Margin (%)14.00%6.57%-53.02%
P/E Multiple8.9522.82155.14%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)159.01158.830.11%
Cumulative Contribution25.57%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 1/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NE25.6% 
Market (SPY)9.5%33.2%
Sector (XLE)11.2%64.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 9.4% change in NE stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 156.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
13120251142026Change
Stock Price ($)29.7832.589.40%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2773.463448.5024.34%
Net Income Margin (%)18.08%6.57%-63.63%
P/E Multiple8.8922.82156.65%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)149.73158.83-6.08%
Cumulative Contribution8.99%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 1/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NE9.4% 
Market (SPY)15.7%59.7%
Sector (XLE)12.4%75.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -8.3% change in NE stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -125.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
13120231142026Change
Stock Price ($)35.5232.58-8.27%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)�3448.50�
Net Income Margin (%)�6.57%�
P/E Multiple�22.82�
Shares Outstanding (Mil)70.32158.83-125.88%
Cumulative Contribution�

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 1/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NE-8.3% 
Market (SPY)76.2%47.8%
Sector (XLE)17.3%68.3%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NE Return2%50%30%-32%-3%10%44%
Peers Return�74%1%-29%-3%9%�
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NE Win Rate29%33%50%33%58%100% 
Peers Win Rate�72%33%42%60%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NE Max Drawdown-18%0%-6%-37%-40%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown�-3%-25%-36%-44%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%0% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RIG, VAL, SDRL, PTEN, NBR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/14/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to RIG, VAL, SDRL, PTEN, NBR

In The Past

Noble's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2023. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

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About Noble (NE)

N/A

AI Analysis | Feedback

Like a United Rentals (URI) for massive offshore drilling rigs, including the expert crews to operate them.

Think of Noble as the "Maersk of offshore oil drilling rigs," owning and operating highly specialized vessels globally.

Noble is a specialized version of Halliburton (HAL) or Schlumberger (SLB), focused specifically on owning and operating the large offshore drilling rigs themselves.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Offshore Contract Drilling: Noble provides advanced drilling rigs and associated services to oil and gas companies for exploration and development in various offshore locations worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Noble Corporation (symbol: NE) primarily sells its services to other companies, specifically to those operating in the oil and gas exploration and production sector.

According to Noble's public filings, including its 2023 Form 10-K, the company contracts with a diverse group of customers, which it describes as "integrated major, national, and independent oil and gas companies worldwide."

While Noble's 2023 10-K filing indicates significant customer concentration (with its top five customers accounting for approximately 63% of its total revenues, and the largest customer accounting for approximately 18%), the specific names of these major customer companies are not disclosed in Noble's public filings for competitive and confidentiality reasons.

Therefore, it is not possible to list the specific names and symbols of Noble's major customers based on publicly available information.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Robert W. Eifler President and Chief Executive Officer

Mr. Eifler was named President and Chief Executive Officer of Noble Corporation in May 2020. Prior to this, he held various leadership positions within Noble, including Senior Vice President, Commercial; Senior Vice President, Marketing and Contracts; and Vice President and General Manager – Marketing and Contracts. He previously led Noble's marketing and contracts efforts for the Eastern Hemisphere while based in London. From November 2013 to March 2015, Mr. Eifler served as Director International Marketing at Hercules Offshore, an offshore driller. He originally joined Noble in February 2005 as part of a management development program. Mr. Eifler holds a B.S. in Systems and Information Engineering from the University of Virginia and an M.B.A. from the Acton School of Business.

Richard B. Barker Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Barker was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Noble in January 2024, having served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since March 2020. He joined Noble after a distinguished career in investment banking, specializing in oilfield services and equipment. His prior roles include positions at Moelis & Company (2019-2020) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (prior to 2019), as well as Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. and Goldman Sachs & Co. Mr. Barker graduated magna cum laude from Rice University with a B.A. in Mathematical Economic Analysis and Managerial Studies.

Joey M. Kawaja Senior Vice President - Operations

Mr. Kawaja was named Senior Vice President of Operations for Noble in October 2022. He brings over 25 years of experience in offshore rig operations and project management. Before his current role, he was Regional Manager – Western Hemisphere from August 2014 to October 2020, overseeing Noble's shorebased and offshore operations in North and South America. Mr. Kawaja joined Noble in 1996 and has served in various capacities, including Operations Manager, Drilling Superintendent, and Project Manager.

Blake A. Denton Senior Vice President – Marketing and Contracts

Mr. Denton became Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts for Noble in October 2022. He previously served as Director of Marketing and Contracts for Noble from January 2017 to March 2020, during which he was based in Dubai and led marketing and contracts efforts for the Middle East and India. His earlier roles at Noble include Project Director and Project Manager. Mr. Denton holds a Bachelor of Science in Industrial Distribution from Texas A&M University.

Caroline M. Alting Senior Vice President of Operational Excellence & Sustainability

Ms. Alting was appointed Senior Vice President of Operational Excellence & Sustainability at Noble in January 2024. She joined Noble having served as Senior Vice President of Operational Excellence since October 2022. Prior to Noble, Ms. Alting was Senior Vice President and Head of Integrity and Projects at Maersk Drilling from June 2020, and held several other roles at Maersk Drilling since May 2009. She also worked for Maersk Oil from November 2003 to May 2009. Ms. Alting earned an MSc in Chemistry from the Technical University of Denmark and a PMD from IESE Business School.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Noble Corporation (symbol: NE) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the cyclical nature of the offshore drilling industry and its sensitivity to global energy markets.

  1. Volatility in Oil and Gas Prices: The company's business is highly dependent on the level of activity in the oil and gas industry, which is directly impacted by fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices. Adverse developments in commodity prices can significantly reduce demand for drilling services, affecting day rates and overall financial performance. This sensitivity to commodity cycles is a significant factor, especially given Noble's concentration in deepwater activities.
  2. Fleet Utilization and Day Rate Pressure: Noble Corporation faces challenges with maintaining high fleet utilization and achieving favorable day rates for its drilling rigs. The offshore drilling sector, while recovering, still faces headwinds, and exploration and production budgets are not consistently high enough to accelerate momentum, leading to delayed commitments. A softening of utilization could lead to increased day rate pressure due to a more competitive bidding environment. Additionally, operational challenges and margin pressures have been noted post-Diamond acquisition.
  3. Debt and Financial Health: Although Noble has undergone financial restructuring and emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy with a deleveraged balance sheet, its financial health remains a concern. The company's Altman Z-Score indicates potential financial distress. Significant debt levels and associated interest expenses can strain cash flows and limit the company's ability to invest in growth or navigate industry downturns. There is also a risk that the benefits of recent transactions, such as the Diamond acquisition, may not be fully realized or may take longer than expected to materialize.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The accelerating global energy transition, characterized by a strategic shift among major oil and gas companies (Noble's primary customers) towards significant investments in renewable energy and lower-carbon projects, poses a clear emerging threat. This shift is anticipated to lead to a long-term reduction in capital expenditure for offshore oil and gas exploration and production, thereby shrinking the addressable market and future demand for Noble's offshore drilling services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Noble Corporation (NE) primarily operates as an offshore drilling contractor, providing contract drilling services for the oil and gas industry globally through its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, including floaters and jackups.

The addressable market for Noble Corporation's main products and services is the global offshore drilling market.

  • This market was valued at approximately $36.52 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $40.04 billion in 2024.
  • It is expected to grow to about $74.94 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% during the forecast period.
  • Another projection indicates the global offshore drilling market will grow from $39.6 billion in 2024 to $86.09 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.07%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Noble Corporation (NE) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. Recovery in the Deepwater Market and Demand for High-Specification Rigs: Noble anticipates a positive outlook on deepwater activity, with a market inflection expected in late 2026 or early 2027. The company's strategic focus is on its high-performance, high-specification fleets, particularly the highest specification floaters, which are prioritized by customers in the ultra-deepwater market. This sustained demand for advanced drilling capabilities is expected to drive future revenue.
  2. Backlog Conversion and New Contract Awards: Noble has a substantial backlog of contracts, with $7 billion as of October 27, 2025, including significant amounts scheduled for revenue conversion in 2026 and 2027. The company has achieved significant contract wins, augmenting its revenue coverage for 2025 and 2026. Continued securing of new contracts and the conversion of existing backlog into revenue will be a key driver.
  3. Improved Fleet Utilization and Increasing Day Rates: Management is encouraged by the high level of contract opportunities, which is expected to lead to a backlog inflection. As the deepwater market tightens, Noble aims to optimize its fleet utilization and enhance cash flow by securing additional contracts and achieving higher day rates.
  4. Realization of Synergies from the Diamond Offshore Acquisition: The integration of Diamond Offshore is progressing well, with approximately $50 million of the targeted $100 million in synergies already realized. These synergies are expected to contribute to enhanced operational scale and market positioning, supporting future revenue and margin growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Noble returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases since Q4 2022.
  • In 2024, Noble repurchased $300 million in shares.
  • The company's Board of Directors authorized an additional $400 million share repurchase program on October 22, 2024.

Share Issuance

  • In August 2024, Noble issued 120,506 new A ordinary shares, primarily from warrant exercises and vesting of restricted stock units.
  • In November 2024, 12,536 new A ordinary shares were issued, including those from warrant exercises and vesting of restricted stock units.
  • In March 2024, 30,833 new A ordinary shares were issued, primarily due to warrant exercises and vesting of restricted stock units.

Inbound Investments

  • Noble emerged from bankruptcy in 2021 and subsequently acquired Pacific Drilling.
  • In October 2022, Noble merged with Maersk Drilling.
  • In June 2024, Noble announced the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, expected to close by year-end 2024, which is anticipated to generate $100 million in annual cost synergies.

Outbound Investments

  • In Q2 2025, Noble completed the disposal of the Pacific Scirocco and Pacific Meltem drillships.
  • The company sold two mothballed obsolete drillships for $41 million in June-July 2025 and agreed to sell the idle jackup Noble Highlander for $65 million.
  • The Noble Globetrotter II and Noble Reacher rigs are currently classified as held for sale as part of the company's fleet rationalization strategy.

Capital Expenditures

  • Noble's full-year 2024 capital additions (net of reimbursements) guidance was maintained in the range of $400 million to $440 million.
  • For 2025, the capital expenditures (net of reimbursements) guidance was initially set at $375 million to $425 million, later increased to $400 million to $450 million due to capital associated with recent long-term contract awards, and further narrowed to $425 million to $450 million.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $450 million, which includes capital required for recent long-term awards and investments in upgrading rigs for new contracts and retrofitting for CCS and offshore wind.

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Peer Comparisons for Noble

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Financials

NERIGVALSDRLPTENNBRMedian
NameNoble Transoce.Valaris Seadrill Patterso.Nabors I. 
Mkt Price31.074.2953.7635.277.1562.2033.17
Mkt Cap4.94.13.82.22.70.93.3
Rev LTM3,4483,8742,4161,3644,8383,1173,283
Op Inc LTM63660154834-67265407
FCF LTM392482250-106289-166269
FCF 3Y Avg2491-64-3953434
CFO LTM90160659919880596602
CFO 3Y Avg722396417-1,016622622

Growth & Margins

NERIGVALSDRLPTENNBRMedian
NameNoble Transoce.Valaris Seadrill Patterso.Nabors I. 
Rev Chg LTM24.3%16.9%6.8%-9.3%-16.6%6.5%6.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg59.6%14.6%-13.9%33.5%9.2%14.6%
Rev Chg Q-0.3%8.4%-7.4%2.5%-13.4%11.8%1.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%2.1%-1.9%0.7%-3.6%2.9%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM18.5%15.5%22.7%2.5%-1.4%8.5%12.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.8%5.9%12.6%14.3%4.9%8.6%10.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.2%2.0%0.7%-1.6%1.4%0.2%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM26.1%15.6%24.8%1.4%18.2%19.1%18.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.3%11.6%19.3%-22.1%20.6%20.6%
FCF/Rev LTM11.4%12.4%10.3%-7.8%6.0%-5.3%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.2%-1.5%-2.9%-8.5%1.2%1.2%

Valuation

NERIGVALSDRLPTENNBRMedian
NameNoble Transoce.Valaris Seadrill Patterso.Nabors I. 
Mkt Cap4.94.13.82.22.70.93.3
P/S1.41.11.61.60.60.31.2
P/EBIT9.0-1.75.2136.7-41.01.23.2
P/E21.8-1.49.564.3-20.13.96.7
P/CFO5.56.86.3115.13.11.55.9
Total Yield7.9%-71.1%10.5%1.6%-2.7%25.4%4.7%
Dividend Yield3.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%0.5%-2.4%-13.6%7.0%5.2%
D/E0.41.50.30.30.52.70.4
Net D/E0.31.30.10.10.42.20.4

Returns

NERIGVALSDRLPTENNBRMedian
NameNoble Transoce.Valaris Seadrill Patterso.Nabors I. 
1M Rtn4.5%5.1%-0.3%10.3%15.0%16.2%7.7%
3M Rtn11.4%29.6%7.3%15.6%26.5%57.6%21.1%
6M Rtn20.4%68.2%18.3%27.2%24.2%105.7%25.7%
12M Rtn-1.5%5.4%11.2%-6.5%-15.8%-2.4%-2.0%
3Y Rtn-9.1%-24.2%-25.1%2.6%-54.0%-63.2%-24.7%
1M Excs Rtn3.1%2.4%-2.1%9.6%13.7%12.4%6.3%
3M Excs Rtn11.3%33.3%7.5%16.2%23.4%50.9%19.8%
6M Excs Rtn9.8%57.7%7.7%16.7%13.6%95.1%15.1%
12M Excs Rtn-17.4%-13.8%-2.6%-23.1%-31.9%-20.7%-19.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.6%-96.1%-97.2%-71.4%-131.3%-137.5%-96.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Contract Drilling Services2,5891,333
Reimbursables and other 81
Total2,5891,414


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$32.58 
Market Cap ($ Bil)5.2 
First Trading Date06/10/2021 
Distance from 52W High-3.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$29.76$26.76
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA9.5%21.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility40.2%49.6%
Downside Capture1.23118.34
Upside Capture82.68100.60
Correlation (SPY)20.8%59.9%
NE Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.840.621.191.351.501.29
Up Beta-0.360.180.981.851.421.22
Down Beta0.750.651.811.722.211.89
Up Capture15%60%94%96%96%67%
Bmk +ve Days11233772143431
Stock +ve Days8193062116372
Down Capture183%82%99%108%109%104%
Bmk -ve Days11182755108320
Stock -ve Days12203262131375

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
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Based On 5-Year Data
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Based On 10-Year Data
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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,056,121
Short Interest: % Change Since 121520259.2%
Average Daily Volume1,470,247
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.88
Basic Shares Quantity158,834,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.2%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q (09/30/2025)
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q (06/30/2025)
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q (03/31/2025)
12/31/202402/19/202510-K (12/31/2024)
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q (09/30/2024)
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q (06/30/2024)
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q (03/31/2024)
12/31/202302/23/202410-K (12/31/2023)
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q (09/30/2023)
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q (06/30/2023)
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q (03/31/2023)
12/31/202203/09/202310-K (12/31/2022)
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q (09/30/2022)