Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $889.19 | Market Cap: $20.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $889.19Market Cap: $20.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 76% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 28x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.18 | Key risksTPL key risks include [1] a concentrated dependence on royalty revenue tied to oil and gas production levels in the Permian Basin and [2] vulnerability to regional water scarcity, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Water Treatment & Delivery. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 76% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Water Treatment & Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.18 |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 28x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 45x |
| Key risksTPL key risks include [1] a concentrated dependence on royalty revenue tied to oil and gas production levels in the Permian Basin and [2] vulnerability to regional water scarcity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) experienced a decline of approximately 5.1% in its stock price from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this movement:
1. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: Texas Pacific Land reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, which fell below analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $5.27 against a forecast of $5.69, and revenue came in at $203 million compared to the anticipated $210 million. This earnings miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Stock Split Announcement and Execution: On November 3, 2025, TPL's Board of Directors approved a three-for-one stock split, with the effective date being December 22, 2025, and trading on a split-adjusted basis starting December 23, 2025. While stock splits generally aim to increase liquidity and make shares more accessible, the period surrounding such events can sometimes lead to volatility or a temporary downward adjustment as the market processes the change in share structure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPL Return | -3% | 73% | 91% | -32% | 115% | -25% | 249% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 69% | 79% | -5% | -2% | -4% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 68% | 62% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPL Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -20% | -45% | -9% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -0% | 0% | -16% | -11% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY. See TPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 454 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 273.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,473 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY
In The Past
Texas Pacific Land's stock fell -52.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/7/2022. A -52.8% loss requires a 111.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| 02282017 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.6% | 81.4% | -10.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| 02282017 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.6% | 81.4% | -10.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Texas Pacific Land
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 111.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 87.5 |
| Rev LTM | 43,194 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,044 |
| FCF LTM | 5,490 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,038 |
| CFO LTM | 15,594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,296 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 87.5 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 19.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 10.0% | 9.5% | -1.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.7% | -7.2% | -6.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -4.2% | 4.7% | -17.0% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.9% | -3.8% | -2.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.7% | 1.3% | 11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.8% | 11.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -5.5% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 22.8% | 42.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -10.5% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |