Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $913.12 | Market Cap: $21.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Texas Pacific Land (TPL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $913.12Market Cap: $21.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Water Treatment & Delivery. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.17 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Water Treatment & Delivery. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.17 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's earnings per share of $5.27 missed the anticipated $5.69, resulting in a 7.38% negative surprise, and revenue of $203 million was below the forecasted $210 million, a 3.3% shortfall.
2. The stock faced concerns regarding its valuation, undergoing a "normalization of sentiment" after a "parabolic surge" in late 2024. TPL's valuation was considered unsustainable by some analysts, with high price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios (e.g., P/E 54x, P/S 34x in July 2025), leading to a re-evaluation by investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPL Return | -3% | 73% | 91% | -32% | 115% | -21% | 267% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 69% | 79% | -5% | -2% | -2% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 68% | 62% | 50% | 50% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPL Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -20% | -45% | -9% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -0% | 0% | -16% | -11% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY. See TPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 454 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 273.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1473 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY
In The Past
Texas Pacific Land's stock fell -52.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/7/2022. A -52.8% loss requires a 111.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 02282017 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.6% | 81.4% | -10.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 02282017 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.6% | 81.4% | -10.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Texas Pacific Land
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |