Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.875 | Market Cap: $66.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.875Market Cap: $66.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil | Key risksCNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4% |
| Key risksCNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CNQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) stock experienced movement around the requested timeframe due to several key factors that contributed to a generally positive outlook and performance in late 2024 and early to mid-2025.
1. Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly average production of 1,470,428 BOE/d in Q4 2024, including record liquids and natural gas production. This strong operational performance contributed to a high annual utilization rate of 99% for its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets in 2024, driving significant free cash flow. The company continued to demonstrate strong production and high utilization in January and February of 2025.
2. Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) Benefits
The completion and increased utilization of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline have fundamentally altered Canadian crude's market access and risk profile. This expansion has nearly tripled Canada's export capacity, providing global access for Canadian oil, particularly to Asian markets, and is expected to significantly reduce the price discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNQ Return | -19% | 84% | 40% | 24% | -1% | 7% | 171% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 96% | 52% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNQ Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 67% | 62% | 53% | 50% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNQ Max Drawdown | -76% | -6% | 0% | -9% | -9% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -75% | -1% | 0% | -19% | -9% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SU, CVE, COP, IMO, OVV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 521 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 315.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 362 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 893 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 298.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4836 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Canadian Natural Resources's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CNQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian Natural Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.3 |
| Rev LTM | 49,772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,491 |
| FCF LTM | 5,936 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,796 |
| CFO LTM | 10,896 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,084 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.3 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.7 |
| P/CFO | 4.2 |
| Total Yield | 12.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3262025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3232022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |