Tearsheet

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.875 | Market Cap: $66.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.875
Market Cap: $66.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil
  Key risks
CNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%
6 Key risks
CNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CNQ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) stock experienced movement around the requested timeframe due to several key factors that contributed to a generally positive outlook and performance in late 2024 and early to mid-2025. 1. Record Production and Strong Operational Performance

Canadian Natural achieved record quarterly average production of 1,470,428 BOE/d in Q4 2024, including record liquids and natural gas production. This strong operational performance contributed to a high annual utilization rate of 99% for its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets in 2024, driving significant free cash flow. The company continued to demonstrate strong production and high utilization in January and February of 2025. 2. Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) Benefits

The completion and increased utilization of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline have fundamentally altered Canadian crude's market access and risk profile. This expansion has nearly tripled Canada's export capacity, providing global access for Canadian oil, particularly to Asian markets, and is expected to significantly reduce the price discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CNQ Return-19%84%40%24%-1%7%171%
Peers Return-37%96%52%1%1%14%120%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CNQ Win Rate50%67%58%58%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate48%67%62%53%50%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CNQ Max Drawdown-76%-6%0%-9%-9%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-75%-1%0%-19%-9%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SU, CVE, COP, IMO, OVV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCNQS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven521 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven362 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven893 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven298.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4836 days1480 days

Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG


In The Past

Canadian Natural Resources's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)

Better Bets than Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Fundamental Metrics: ... 
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CNQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Canadian Natural Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CNQSUCVECOPIMOOVVMedian
NameCanadian.Suncor E.Cenovus .ConocoPh.Imperial.Ovintiv  
Mkt Price31.8642.8216.9994.9684.9938.8240.82
Mkt Cap66.551.930.4118.242.89.947.3
Rev LTM44,52153,30156,60259,78846,2448,94949,772
Op Inc LTM9,0227,9524,32812,5495,0302,0716,491
FCF LTM8,1248,0362,8247,0884,7831,4845,936
FCF 3Y Avg8,2847,6633,7438,9103,9281,4585,796
CFO LTM14,77013,9437,84919,9356,5793,71810,896
CFO 3Y Avg13,87413,6968,47120,7205,7673,82011,084

Growth & Margins

CNQSUCVECOPIMOOVVMedian
NameCanadian.Suncor E.Cenovus .ConocoPh.Imperial.Ovintiv  
Rev Chg LTM8.3%-2.8%-4.8%8.2%-6.2%-11.7%-3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.4%-3.4%-6.6%-6.6%-5.6%-10.7%-6.1%
Rev Chg Q6.4%-2.4%-4.5%15.3%-7.5%-11.1%-3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.5%-0.6%-1.1%3.4%-2.0%-2.8%-0.9%
Op Mgn LTM20.3%14.9%7.6%21.0%10.9%23.1%17.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.9%17.2%9.0%24.1%12.4%25.7%19.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.3%-0.3%0.9%-1.0%-1.7%-0.6%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM33.2%26.2%13.9%33.3%14.2%41.5%29.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.8%25.4%14.8%35.6%12.0%38.4%29.1%
FCF/Rev LTM18.2%15.1%5.0%11.9%10.3%16.6%13.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.6%14.2%6.5%15.3%8.2%14.7%14.5%

Valuation

CNQSUCVECOPIMOOVVMedian
NameCanadian.Suncor E.Cenovus .ConocoPh.Imperial.Ovintiv  
Mkt Cap66.551.930.4118.242.89.947.3
P/S1.50.90.52.01.01.21.1
P/EBIT7.66.57.18.18.815.17.8
P/E10.09.69.713.311.443.810.7
P/CFO4.53.63.95.96.92.84.2
Total Yield17.1%15.9%12.5%10.8%11.7%5.3%12.1%
Dividend Yield7.1%5.5%2.2%3.3%3.0%3.0%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.0%16.1%11.5%6.9%9.9%13.4%11.7%
D/E0.30.30.30.20.10.60.3
Net D/E0.30.20.30.10.00.60.2

Returns

CNQSUCVECOPIMOOVVMedian
NameCanadian.Suncor E.Cenovus .ConocoPh.Imperial.Ovintiv  
1M Rtn-3.2%-2.6%-4.4%7.0%-13.4%2.4%-2.9%
3M Rtn-0.2%0.9%-1.5%2.2%-9.6%-6.8%-0.8%
6M Rtn-2.7%9.1%18.4%3.0%6.0%-4.4%4.5%
12M Rtn9.7%24.6%19.7%-0.0%32.4%2.6%14.7%
3Y Rtn40.7%64.3%5.7%-4.4%96.8%-15.7%23.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.9%-3.4%-5.1%6.3%-14.2%1.6%-3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-0.8%-0.1%-3.0%1.2%-10.4%-8.2%-1.9%
6M Excs Rtn-15.1%-3.3%6.0%-9.4%-6.4%-16.8%-7.9%
12M Excs Rtn-4.4%10.4%4.8%-13.8%18.4%-12.3%0.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.1%-6.4%-63.1%-74.0%20.4%-81.3%-48.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading42,86542,10241,56741,56742,006
Exploration and Production32,07232,88932,20632,20634,470
Midstream and Refining8569791,3011,3011,418
Head Office162172202202227
Total75,95576,14275,27675,27678,121


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity80,077,561
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025362.4%
Average Daily Volume8,421,664
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.51
Basic Shares Quantity2,087,944,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024326202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024103120246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450220246-K 3/31/2024
12312023320202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022323202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202280420226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021323202240-F 12/31/2021