Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $45.54 | Market Cap: $94.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $45.54Market Cap: $94.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 10% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. | Key risksCNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Sustainable Resource Management, and North American Energy Security. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Key risksCNQ key risks include [1] heightened exposure to Canadian climate policy and emissions caps due to its significant oil sands assets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices.Canadian Natural Resources' stock movement was significantly impacted by a notable decline in crude oil prices from their peak around the beginning of the period. Brent crude oil, a key benchmark, reached an intraday high of $120.88 per barrel on April 30, 2026. However, it subsequently fell, averaging $85 per barrel in June 2026, a decrease of $32 per barrel from its April 2026 peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted Brent prices to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026, indicating continued downward pressure. On August 5, 2026, Brent crude opened at $78.72 per barrel, reflecting this substantial reduction from late April's highs. This macroeconomic trend directly affects the revenue and profitability of oil and gas producers like Canadian Natural Resources.
2. Downward Revision of Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Estimates.Analysts significantly lowered their expectations for Canadian Natural Resources' fiscal Q2 2026 performance. Over the 30 days preceding August 3, 2026, the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal Q2 2026 was adjusted downward by 14.4%. This downward revision indicates that despite anticipated year-over-year growth, analysts tempered their near-term outlook for the company's profitability. Analysts expect Q2 2026 earnings of $1.43 per share, an increase of 180.4% compared to the year-ago period, and revenues of approximately $9.25 billion, a 47.2% increase year-over-year. However, the 14.4% reduction in the EPS consensus estimate signaled a softening in company-specific performance expectations.
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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) stock has lost about 5% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Decline in Crude Oil Prices.Canadian Natural Resources' stock movement was significantly impacted by a notable decline in crude oil prices from their peak around the beginning of the period. Brent crude oil, a key benchmark, reached an intraday high of $120.88 per barrel on April 30, 2026. However, it subsequently fell, averaging $85 per barrel in June 2026, a decrease of $32 per barrel from its April 2026 peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted Brent prices to average $74 per barrel in fiscal Q3 2026, indicating continued downward pressure. On August 5, 2026, Brent crude opened at $78.72 per barrel, reflecting this substantial reduction from late April's highs. This macroeconomic trend directly affects the revenue and profitability of oil and gas producers like Canadian Natural Resources.
2. Downward Revision of Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Estimates.Analysts significantly lowered their expectations for Canadian Natural Resources' fiscal Q2 2026 performance. Over the 30 days preceding August 3, 2026, the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for fiscal Q2 2026 was adjusted downward by 14.4%. This downward revision indicates that despite anticipated year-over-year growth, analysts tempered their near-term outlook for the company's profitability. Analysts expect Q2 2026 earnings of $1.43 per share, an increase of 180.4% compared to the year-ago period, and revenues of approximately $9.25 billion, a 47.2% increase year-over-year. However, the 14.4% reduction in the EPS consensus estimate signaled a softening in company-specific performance expectations.
3. Negative Stock Reaction Post Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings.Despite Canadian Natural Resources reporting strong fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 7, 2026, the stock experienced a negative reaction. The company announced earnings of $0.85 per share, surpassing analysts' consensus estimate of $0.74 by $0.11. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $7.72 billion against an anticipated $7.57 billion. However, following the earnings release, the stock recorded a -2.0% price effect. This immediate negative market response, even after beating estimates, indicates that other factors or forward-looking sentiment might have outweighed the positive Q1 performance, contributing to the overall decline in the period since April 30, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.6% change in CNQ stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.19 | 45.51 | -3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,509 | 51,398 | 23.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.7% | 22.9% | 55.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 8.0 | -50.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,108 | 2,078 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNQ | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | -21.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.6% | 83.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.7% change in CNQ stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 53.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.49 | 45.51 | 24.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44,521 | 51,398 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 22.9% | 53.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.4 | 8.0 | -29.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,088 | 2,078 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 24.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | -26.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 13.4% | 83.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.3% change in CNQ stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.28 | 45.51 | 50.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44,799 | 51,398 | 14.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 22.9% | 35.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 8.0 | -4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,101 | 2,078 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 50.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | -11.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 35.0% | 74.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 72.3% change in CNQ stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.41 | 45.51 | 72.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,946 | 51,398 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 22.9% | 11.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.0 | 8.0 | 33.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,201 | 2,078 | 5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 72.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 72.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 43.7% | 76.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNQ Return | 84% | 40% | 24% | -1% | 16% | 37% | 396% |
| Peers Return | 96% | 52% | 1% | 1% | 17% | 48% | 425% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNQ Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 62% | 53% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNQ Max Drawdown | -19% | -32% | -18% | -26% | -22% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -35% | -26% | -26% | -25% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SU, CVE, COP, IMO, OVV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -74.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 291.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1935 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Canadian Natural Resources's stock fell -16.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CNQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -74.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 291.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1935 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 976 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Canadian Natural Resources's stock fell -16.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is a prominent integrated energy company engaged in the entire spectrum of oil and gas operations. This includes acquiring land, exploring for new reserves, developing existing resources, producing, marketing, and selling a wide range of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company also supports its production activities with essential midstream assets, such as crude oil pipeline systems, and holds a working interest in a cogeneration plant.
The company's main products are diverse forms of crude oil, specifically synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), primary heavy crude oil, and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. In addition to these oil products, CNQ is a significant producer of natural gas and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2020, CNQ held substantial proved and probable reserves across all these categories, highlighting its strong resource base.
Canadian Natural Resources primarily operates and focuses its resource development in Western Canada. Beyond its domestic presence, the company extends its operations internationally, with active projects in the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea and Offshore Africa. Its essential energy products are sold into global markets, primarily serving refineries, utilities, and other industrial consumers of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs.
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- Canada's ExxonMobil or Chevron.
- The Canadian equivalent of a global energy major like Shell or BP.
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- Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO): A high-quality crude oil produced from bitumen after upgrading processes.
- Light and Medium Crude Oil: Conventional crude oil varieties characterized by lower viscosity and higher API gravity.
- Heavy Crude Oil: Viscous crude oil requiring specialized extraction and processing, including bitumen and other heavy grades.
- Natural Gas: A gaseous fossil fuel composed primarily of methane, used for energy generation and heating.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbon components such as ethane, propane, and butane separated from natural gas.
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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) sells primarily to other companies rather than individuals. As an upstream and midstream energy company, it produces raw crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are commodities used as feedstocks and fuels by various industrial and commercial enterprises.
The major customers for Canadian Natural Resources fall into the following categories, with examples of public companies that operate within these sectors and would typically purchase such commodities:
- Refiners: Companies that process crude oil into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants. These are often integrated energy companies or independent refiners.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU)
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE, NYSE: CVE)
- Imperial Oil Limited (TSX: IMO, NYSE: IMO)
- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO)
- Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC)
- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)
- Natural Gas Utilities and Distributors: Companies that purchase natural gas for distribution to residential, commercial, and industrial end-users, or for use in power generation.
- Petrochemical Manufacturers: Companies that use natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane, propane, and butane as feedstocks for producing plastics, chemicals, and other industrial products.
- Energy Trading Houses: Firms specializing in the purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs on global commodity markets.
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Scott G. Stauth, President
Scott G. Stauth was appointed President of Canadian Natural Resources in February 2024. He joined the company in 1997 and has held various leadership roles, including Vice President of Field Operations, Senior Vice President of Operations Field, Facilities & Pipelines, Executive Vice-President of Canadian Field Operations, and Chief Operating Officer of Oil Sands. His long-standing service reflects his extensive experience and significant contributions to the company's growth and success in the oil and gas industry.
Victor C. Darel, Chief Financial Officer
Victor C. Darel was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Canadian Natural Resources, effective April 30, 2025. He is a Chartered Professional Accountant with over 20 years of experience in finance and accounting across both the public and private sectors. Mr. Darel has been with Canadian Natural for 11 years, holding increasingly responsible positions, including Senior Vice President, Finance and Principal Accounting Officer.
N. Murray Edwards, Executive Chairman
N. Murray Edwards is the Executive Chairman and co-founder of Canadian Natural Resources, and is recognized as one of Canada's wealthiest individuals. Beyond his role at Canadian Natural, he is a co-owner of the Calgary Flames and holds diversified interests in mining companies, recreational resorts, and a consulting firm. Notably, he is also the largest major shareholder, holding 45%, in Imperial Metals.
Robin S. Zabek, Chief Operating Officer, Exploration and Production
Robin S. Zabek serves as the Chief Operating Officer, Exploration and Production at Canadian Natural Resources. Prior to this role, he was the Senior Vice President of Exploitation.
Jay E. Froc, Chief Operating Officer, Oil Sands
Jay E. Froc holds the position of Chief Operating Officer, Oil Sands at Canadian Natural Resources. He is responsible for the company's oil sands mining and upgrading operations, having previously served as Senior Vice-President of Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading.
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Here are the key risks to Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ):
- Commodity Price Volatility: Canadian Natural Resources' profitability is heavily influenced by the unpredictable fluctuations in global crude oil and natural gas prices, which is considered a core financial risk. A sustained decline in these prices could significantly impact the company's adjusted funds flow.
- Regulatory and Environmental Policy Uncertainty: The company faces significant long-term strategic risks due to unresolved federal carbon policies and emission caps in Canada. Uncertainties around carbon pricing and methane emissions rules create major cost uncertainty, could lead to increased compliance costs, and may pressure profit margins. This regulatory ambiguity has already led Canadian Natural Resources to defer an $8.25-billion oilsands mine expansion, impacting its long-term growth investments.
- Operational Risks and Infrastructure Constraints: Operational challenges, including planned and unplanned maintenance activities like the AOSP turnaround, are projected to reduce annual output. Furthermore, the shrinking global footprint of the company, with declining international production, increases the reliance and pressure on North American operations. The broader oil sands industry, in which CNQ is a major player, also faces potential limitations from infrastructure capacity and market access, with projections suggesting existing pipeline capacity could be fully utilized by 2028, potentially constraining CNQ's ability to expand production and affecting revenue growth.
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The accelerating global transition to cleaner energy sources, including widespread adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies, which directly impacts the long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, the company's primary products.
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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) operates in the crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) markets across Western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The addressable market sizes for these main products in their operating regions or globally are outlined below:
Crude Oil
- The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately $2.6 trillion in 2023, with projections to reach $3.0 trillion by 2033.
- In Canada, crude oil production averaged 5.13 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2024. Canada's crude petroleum exports totaled $106 billion in 2024, making it the 5th largest exporter globally.
- The African crude oil market saw production reach 6.9 million barrels per day in 2020. Domestic crude demand in Africa is forecast to increase from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050.
- Information on the specific market size for crude oil in the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea was not available in the provided search results.
Natural Gas
- The global natural gas market was valued at $1,186.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $1,823.77 billion by 2032.
- Canadian natural gas production reached an average of 18.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, and 19.2 Bcf/d during the first five months of 2025.
- The African natural gas market size was estimated at approximately $50 billion in 2023, with an anticipated increase to about $75 billion by 2030.
- Information on the specific market size for natural gas in the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea was not available in the provided search results.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
- The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 17.54 billion in 2024.
- The Canada natural gas liquids market generated a revenue of USD 814.4 million in 2024, with expectations to reach USD 1,401.7 million by 2030.
- The Natural Gas Liquid market in the Middle East & Africa was valued at USD 350.84 million in 2024, representing approximately 2% of the global revenue.
- Information on the specific market size for natural gas liquids in the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea was not available in the provided search results.
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- Increased Production Volumes through Organic Growth and Strategic Acquisitions: Canadian Natural has provided guidance for continued production growth, building on record levels achieved in 2025. The company has revised its 2026 production guidance upward, reflecting recent strategic acquisitions such as the Palliser Block assets, liquids-rich Montney assets, and increased ownership in the Albian mines. These acquisitions, along with ongoing conventional drilling, thermal expansions, and mining projects, are expected to contribute to an approximate 3% year-over-year production growth in 2026.
- Enhanced Market Access and Export Opportunities: Expanding exports, particularly to Asian markets through access to marine terminals via the Trans Mountain pipeline, is a significant growth catalyst. The Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline expansion, operational since May 2024, is seen as a crucial development whose full potential for Canadian Natural's growth has yet to be realized, offering increased opportunities for Canadian oil exports.
- Ongoing Operational Efficiencies and Cost Reductions: Canadian Natural's focus on strong operational performance and efficiencies has led to record production levels and significant earnings growth. The company continues to aim for improved operating costs, particularly in its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations, which already demonstrate industry-leading cost structures. These efficiencies allow Canadian Natural to maintain profitability and competitive pricing even in fluctuating commodity price environments.
- Disciplined Capital Allocation to High-Return Projects: The company's strategic capital program is adjusted to focus on high-return projects, ensuring that investments contribute effectively to value growth and strong returns on capital. The 2026 operating capital budget emphasizes investments in short and medium-term production growth, alongside front-end engineering and design (FEED) for potential medium and long-term value creation opportunities, underscoring a commitment to sustainable growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Canadian Natural Resources received approval for a new normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 182,396,564 common shares, or 10% of its public float, between March 13, 2026, and March 12, 2027.
- Under its previous NCIB, the company repurchased 27,810,000 common shares at a weighted average price of $43.99 per share from March 13, 2025, to March 12, 2026.
- Effective January 1, 2026, Canadian Natural updated its free cash flow allocation policy to prioritize share repurchases. When net debt is at or below $13 billion, 100% of free cash flow after dividends and capital spending will be directed to buybacks. Between $13 billion and $16 billion, 75% will be allocated, and at or above $16 billion, 60% will go to repurchases.
Share Issuance
- The company's share count decreased from 2,368 million at the end of 2020 to 2,103 million at the end of 2024, indicating net share repurchases rather than issuances. As of March 2026, the number of outstanding shares was 2,087,944,000.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, Canadian Natural acquired Chevron Canada Limited's Alberta assets for US$6.5 billion, which included an additional 20% interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (bringing CNQ's ownership to 90%) and a 70% operated interest in liquids-rich Duvernay assets.
- In November 2025, Canadian Natural completed an asset swap with Shell Canada Limited, gaining 100% ownership of the Albian oil sands mines and associated reserves. This swap did not involve cash consideration, apart from routine closing adjustments.
- Early in 2026, the company completed a strategic acquisition that included the Palliser Block assets and liquids-rich Montney assets, contributing to increased 2026 production guidance.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, the operating capital budget is approximately C$5.99 billion (a reduction of C$310 million from an initial C$6.3 billion forecast), with a total capital budget, including acquisitions, expected to reach C$6.88 billion. This budget focuses on disciplined spending, production growth, and operational efficiency, targeting 1,615-1,665 MBOE/d production.
- The 2026 capital plan includes C$175 million for front-end engineering and design (FEED) for potential medium and long-term projects (e.g., Jackfish Brownfield, Pike 2, and Jackpine mine expansions) and C$125 million for carbon capture projects.
- The 2025 operating capital budget was approximately C$5.9 billion (originally C$6.0-6.15 billion, later reduced by C$100 million). Capital was allocated to drill 361 net wells, with C$3.2 billion for conventional E&P and C$2.815 billion for thermal and oil sands mining and upgrading.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 7-Day Rally Sends Canadian Natural Resources Stock Up 10% | 07/24/2026 | |
| Canadian Natural Resources Stock Surges 7.5%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 07/23/2026 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.6 |
| Rev LTM | 55,479 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,596 |
| FCF LTM | 8,636 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,127 |
| CFO LTM | 14,076 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,716 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 21,481 | 20,161 | 19,760 | ||
| Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading | 20,316 | 19,279 | 18,666 | 20,953 | 14,106 |
| Inter-segment Elimination and Other | 1,076 | 216 | 328 | 295 | -161 |
| Midstream and Refining | 761 | 895 | 1,002 | 986 | 759 |
| North Sea | 338 | 478 | 442 | ||
| Offshore Africa | 195 | 480 | 637 | ||
| Exploration and Production | 27,296 | 18,150 | |||
| Total | 44,167 | 41,509 | 40,835 | 49,530 | 32,854 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading | 54,699 | 49,221 | 42,865 | 42,102 | 42,016 |
| Exploration and Production | 35,684 | 32,072 | 32,889 | 33,578 | |
| Midstream and Refining | 1,142 | 1,099 | 856 | 979 | 886 |
| Head Office | 305 | 224 | 162 | 172 | 185 |
| North America | 32,670 | ||||
| North Sea | 702 | ||||
| Offshore Africa | 1,412 | ||||
| Other | 31 | ||||
| Total | 91,830 | 85,359 | 75,955 | 76,142 | 76,665 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 94.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $43.64 | $40.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.3% | 13.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.4% | 30.7% |
| Downside Capture | -81.17 | -77.25 |
| Upside Capture | -50.10 | -7.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -18.4% | -12.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.35 | -0.29 | -0.50 | -0.61 | -0.25 | 0.53 |
| Up Beta | 2.42 | -0.17 | -0.58 | -1.10 | -0.78 | 0.64 |
| Down Beta | -2.23 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.85 |
| Up Capture | -64% | -32% | -54% | -32% | -3% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 32 | 71 | 138 | 411 |
| Down Capture | -419% | -81% | -100% | -181% | -127% | 38% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 21 | 31 | 55 | 114 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 52.3% | 30.7% | 1.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 39.2% | 21.1% | 1.46 | 74.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | -12.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | 62.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | -7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 3.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 28.8% | 32.8% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.6% | 25.8% | 0.78 | 81.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 36.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 64.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNQ | 17.2% | 40.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.9% | 29.6% | 0.37 | 79.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 8.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 59.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 38.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/26/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/26/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/23/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/24/2021 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/27/2020 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 6-K |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turas Capital Management LP | $44.5 Mil | 11.4% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Yacktman Asset Management LP | $806.1 Mil | 10.7% | 76 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $137.9 Mil | 7.4% | 43 | ADD +48.6% | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $27.4 Mil | 5.8% | 36 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $25.9 Mil | 5.3% | 28 | TRIM -16.4% | 13F |
| Heathbridge Capital Management Ltd. | $13.7 Mil | 5.0% | 29 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Investment Management Associates Inc /Adv | $17.6 Mil | 4.8% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $277.1 Mil | 3.1% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $37.2 Mil | 2.7% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yacktman Asset Management LP | $806.1 Mil | 10.7% | 76 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $277.1 Mil | 3.1% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $137.9 Mil | 7.4% | 43 | ADD +48.6% | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $44.5 Mil | 11.4% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $37.2 Mil | 2.7% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $27.4 Mil | 5.8% | 36 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $25.9 Mil | 5.3% | 28 | TRIM -16.4% | 13F |
| Investment Management Associates Inc /Adv | $17.6 Mil | 4.8% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Heathbridge Capital Management Ltd. | $13.7 Mil | 5.0% | 29 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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