Diamondback Energy (FANG)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $156.8 | Market Cap: $45.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $156.8Market Cap: $45.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FANG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat
Diamondback Energy (FANG) announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results on November 3, 2025, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.94 by $0.14. This strong performance indicated better-than-expected profitability.
2. Significant Production Growth and Raised Guidance
The company demonstrated substantial operational strength in Q3 2025, with production increasing by 65% year-over-year and 2.5% compared to the previous quarter, a rise partly attributed to strategic mergers and acquisitions. Management subsequently raised its full-year 2025 oil production guidance to 495–498 MBO/d and total annual equivalent production (BOE) guidance to 910–920 MBOE/d.
3. Favorable Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
Diamondback Energy maintained a strong commitment to shareholder value through its capital allocation strategy. In Q3 2025, the company returned $892 million to shareholders, derived from $1.79 billion in free cash flow, through a combination of buybacks and dividends. Approximately 4.29 million shares were repurchased for about $603 million, with a substantial $3.0 billion repurchase capacity remaining.
4. Strategic Asset Divestitures and Solid Balance Sheet
During the period, Diamondback Energy successfully completed significant asset divestitures, including the sale of its EDS stake for $694 million and its EPIC pipeline interest for $504 million, totaling over $1.0 billion. These strategic moves enhanced the company's financial flexibility and contributed to a solid balance sheet, reflected in a net debt-to-capital ratio of 26%, which is favorable compared to industry peers.
5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets
Throughout late 2025, multiple analyst firms reiterated or increased their price targets for Diamondback Energy, reflecting positive sentiment. For instance, UBS Group raised its price target from $171.00 to $174.00 in November 2025, and Wells Fargo & Company increased its target from $160.00 to $169.00. The company generally held a "Strong Buy" consensus rating among analysts, with an average price target suggesting further upside potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FANG Return | -46% | 128% | 35% | 20% | 10% | -1% | 117% |
| Peers Return | -41% | 101% | 53% | -4% | 6% | -5% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FANG Win Rate | 25% | 83% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 70% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FANG Max Drawdown | -83% | 0% | 0% | -8% | -4% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -70% | -1% | -2% | -20% | -13% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, DVN, EPM, BSM. See FANG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FANG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 519.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 855 days | 120 days |
Compare to EOG, OKE, DVN, EPM, BSM
In The Past
Diamondback Energy's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FANG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 28.6% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -5.7% |
| 12312018 | FANG | Diamondback Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 0.9% | -19.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 28.6% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -5.7% |
| 12312018 | FANG | Diamondback Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 0.9% | -19.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Diamondback Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 74.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 45.5 |
| Rev LTM | 16,377 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,771 |
| FCF LTM | 1,521 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,024 |
| CFO LTM | 6,252 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,765 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 45.5 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.3% | 3.2% | 13.7% |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.4% | -7.4% | -3.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% |
| 2/24/2025 | -2.1% | -4.7% | 4.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | -0.4% | -4.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | 2.4% | 8.7% | 0.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.5% | 1.3% | -0.9% |
| 2/12/2024 | 9.4% | 18.2% | 23.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 4.7% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -3.5% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 18.2% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -5.2% | -9.9% | -79.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |