Tearsheet

Diamondback Energy (FANG)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $156.8 | Market Cap: $45.3 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Diamondback Energy (FANG)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $156.8
Market Cap: $45.3 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


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Valuation, Metrics & Events

FANG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat

Diamondback Energy (FANG) announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results on November 3, 2025, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.94 by $0.14. This strong performance indicated better-than-expected profitability.

2. Significant Production Growth and Raised Guidance

The company demonstrated substantial operational strength in Q3 2025, with production increasing by 65% year-over-year and 2.5% compared to the previous quarter, a rise partly attributed to strategic mergers and acquisitions. Management subsequently raised its full-year 2025 oil production guidance to 495–498 MBO/d and total annual equivalent production (BOE) guidance to 910–920 MBOE/d.

3. Favorable Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

Diamondback Energy maintained a strong commitment to shareholder value through its capital allocation strategy. In Q3 2025, the company returned $892 million to shareholders, derived from $1.79 billion in free cash flow, through a combination of buybacks and dividends. Approximately 4.29 million shares were repurchased for about $603 million, with a substantial $3.0 billion repurchase capacity remaining.

4. Strategic Asset Divestitures and Solid Balance Sheet

During the period, Diamondback Energy successfully completed significant asset divestitures, including the sale of its EDS stake for $694 million and its EPIC pipeline interest for $504 million, totaling over $1.0 billion. These strategic moves enhanced the company's financial flexibility and contributed to a solid balance sheet, reflected in a net debt-to-capital ratio of 26%, which is favorable compared to industry peers.

5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets

Throughout late 2025, multiple analyst firms reiterated or increased their price targets for Diamondback Energy, reflecting positive sentiment. For instance, UBS Group raised its price target from $171.00 to $174.00 in November 2025, and Wells Fargo & Company increased its target from $160.00 to $169.00. The company generally held a "Strong Buy" consensus rating among analysts, with an average price target suggesting further upside potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FANG Return-46%128%35%20%10%-1%117%
Peers Return-41%101%53%-4%6%-5%73%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FANG Win Rate25%83%50%67%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate42%70%67%50%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FANG Max Drawdown-83%0%0%-8%-4%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-70%-1%-2%-20%-13%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, DVN, EPM, BSM. See FANG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFANGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven113 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven519.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven470 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven88.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven855 days120 days

Compare to EOG, OKE, DVN, EPM, BSM


In The Past

Diamondback Energy's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Better Bets than Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FANG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.6%28.6%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-5.7%
FANG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018FANGDiamondback EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.3%0.9%-19.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.6%28.6%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-5.7%
FANG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018FANGDiamondback EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.3%0.9%-19.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Diamondback Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FANGEOGOKEDVNEPMBSMMedian
NameDiamondb.EOG Reso.ONEOK Devon En.Evolutio.Black St. 
Mkt Price157.52110.6274.9337.574.12-74.93
Mkt Cap45.559.847.323.60.1-45.5
Rev LTM15,28422,57931,56417,4708543116,377
Op Inc LTM5,5847,5395,9073,95822784,771
FCF LTM-1,0943,8912,9202,818-62241,521
FCF 3Y Avg-1,9665,1672,7631,677-13711,024
CFO LTM8,75610,1955,6646,841333366,252
CFO 3Y Avg6,73011,4534,8016,744324375,765

Growth & Margins

FANGEOGOKEDVNEPMBSMMedian
NameDiamondb.EOG Reso.ONEOK Devon En.Evolutio.Black St. 
Rev Chg LTM60.1%-5.0%58.4%11.4%-2.2%-8.5%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.8%-7.6%16.4%-2.1%-12.8%-16.4%-4.8%
Rev Chg Q48.2%-2.3%71.9%7.6%-2.8%1.9%4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.1%-0.6%12.9%1.8%-0.7%0.5%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM36.5%33.4%18.7%22.7%2.6%64.3%28.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg46.8%36.4%21.2%28.3%13.8%66.2%32.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%-0.8%-0.9%-1.7%-2.2%1.0%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM57.3%45.2%17.9%39.2%39.0%77.9%42.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg62.5%49.0%21.5%41.8%34.6%88.7%45.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-7.2%17.2%9.3%16.1%-7.1%52.0%12.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-18.6%22.1%12.7%10.2%-3.3%73.9%11.4%

Valuation

FANGEOGOKEDVNEPMBSMMedian
NameDiamondb.EOG Reso.ONEOK Devon En.Evolutio.Black St. 
Mkt Cap45.559.847.323.60.1-45.5
P/S2.72.71.51.31.6-1.6
P/EBIT6.98.37.35.450.2-7.3
P/E9.911.013.88.1598.9-11.0
P/CFO4.75.98.13.24.2-4.7
Total Yield12.9%12.6%7.3%15.1%12.0%-12.6%
Dividend Yield2.7%3.5%0.0%2.8%11.9%-2.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.2%7.6%6.9%6.5%-1.8%-6.5%
D/E0.40.10.70.40.3-0.4
Net D/E0.40.10.70.30.3-0.3

Returns

FANGEOGOKEDVNEPMBSMMedian
NameDiamondb.EOG Reso.ONEOK Devon En.Evolutio.Black St. 
1M Rtn9.7%4.9%10.0%11.5%-7.4%-9.7%
3M Rtn15.5%-5.1%6.6%8.9%-18.5%-6.6%
6M Rtn12.4%-1.5%-5.0%16.7%-11.6%--1.5%
12M Rtn-2.9%-10.5%-27.6%10.4%-19.6%--10.5%
3Y Rtn37.8%2.8%38.0%-29.3%-21.0%-2.8%
1M Excs Rtn10.0%3.5%8.6%14.0%-7.4%-8.6%
3M Excs Rtn11.2%-9.9%0.8%4.4%-22.8%-0.8%
6M Excs Rtn-1.6%-15.5%-19.0%2.7%-25.6%--15.5%
12M Excs Rtn-17.7%-24.1%-40.0%-6.1%-33.5%--24.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-44.6%-79.0%-37.4%-104.9%-94.5%--79.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream28,36224,45221,32916,12822,125
All Other1,2422,213   
Eliminations-603-456-373-318-230
Midstream services  1,9421,8091,636
Total29,00126,20922,89817,61923,531


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,746,876
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.7%
Average Daily Volume1,735,009
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.62
Basic Shares Quantity288,826,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-1.3%3.2%13.7%
8/4/2025-1.4%-7.4%-3.0%
5/5/2025-0.8%7.4%5.4%
2/24/2025-2.1%-4.7%4.8%
11/4/2024-2.3%-0.4%-4.4%
8/5/20242.4%8.7%0.7%
4/30/2024-2.5%1.3%-0.9%
2/12/20249.4%18.2%23.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141513
# Negative879
Median Positive2.5%4.7%9.0%
Median Negative-1.8%-3.5%-4.4%
Max Positive9.4%18.2%47.9%
Max Negative-5.2%-9.9%-79.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021