Intel (INTC)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $87.5 | Market Cap: $446.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Intel (INTC)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $87.5Market Cap: $446.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 317% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 317% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
| Key risksINTC key risks include [1] significant manufacturing execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Intel (INTC) stock has gained about 95% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026 Earnings Performance Fueled by AI and Data Center Demand.
Intel's stock experienced significant upward momentum due to robust financial results that surpassed analyst expectations for both fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026. In fiscal Q1 2026, reported on April 23, 2026, Intel posted $13.6 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates of $12.36 billion, with its Data Center and AI division showing a 22% year-over-year revenue increase. This strong performance continued into fiscal Q2 2026, reported on July 23, 2026, where Intel's revenue surged 25% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, outperforming the $14.43 billion consensus, marking the company's fastest revenue growth in over fifteen years. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026 reached $0.42, effectively doubling the consensus estimate of $0.21. This growth was largely driven by unprecedented AI-related compute demand, with the Data Center and AI (DCAI) business seeing a 59% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.3 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, propelled by hyperscaler demand.
2. Significant Progress and Investment in Foundry Operations and Advanced Process Technologies.
Intel's strategic shift to strengthen its foundry business and reclaim process leadership contributed to investor optimism. The Intel Foundry segment reported a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in fiscal Q2 2026, reaching $5.8 billion. The company demonstrated substantial progress across its Intel 7, Intel 3, and Intel 18A process nodes, with Intel 18A output surpassing internal volume targets by over 50% quarter-over-quarter in fiscal Q2 2026. Key product introductions, such as the Intel Core Ultra Series 3 (Panther Lake) built on the Intel 18A process, and the new Intel Xeon 6+ processors for data centers also leveraging Intel 18A technology, signaled successful execution of its manufacturing roadmap.
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Intel (INTC) stock has gained about 95% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026 Earnings Performance Fueled by AI and Data Center Demand.
Intel's stock experienced significant upward momentum due to robust financial results that surpassed analyst expectations for both fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026. In fiscal Q1 2026, reported on April 23, 2026, Intel posted $13.6 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates of $12.36 billion, with its Data Center and AI division showing a 22% year-over-year revenue increase. This strong performance continued into fiscal Q2 2026, reported on July 23, 2026, where Intel's revenue surged 25% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, outperforming the $14.43 billion consensus, marking the company's fastest revenue growth in over fifteen years. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026 reached $0.42, effectively doubling the consensus estimate of $0.21. This growth was largely driven by unprecedented AI-related compute demand, with the Data Center and AI (DCAI) business seeing a 59% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.3 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, propelled by hyperscaler demand.
2. Significant Progress and Investment in Foundry Operations and Advanced Process Technologies.
Intel's strategic shift to strengthen its foundry business and reclaim process leadership contributed to investor optimism. The Intel Foundry segment reported a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in fiscal Q2 2026, reaching $5.8 billion. The company demonstrated substantial progress across its Intel 7, Intel 3, and Intel 18A process nodes, with Intel 18A output surpassing internal volume targets by over 50% quarter-over-quarter in fiscal Q2 2026. Key product introductions, such as the Intel Core Ultra Series 3 (Panther Lake) built on the Intel 18A process, and the new Intel Xeon 6+ processors for data centers also leveraging Intel 18A technology, signaled successful execution of its manufacturing roadmap.
3. Substantial U.S. CHIPS Act Funding Bolstering Domestic Manufacturing.
The allocation of significant government funding through the CHIPS and Science Act provided a strong external catalyst for Intel's stock. Intel secured a $5.7 billion federal grant, part of a larger commitment that could total up to $7.86 billion, aimed at expanding domestic semiconductor manufacturing. This funding is crucial for supporting the construction of new fabrication facilities in Ohio, Arizona, and New Mexico, and upgrading existing ones, thereby reducing capital expenditure burdens and accelerating Intel's timeline for producing advanced chips.
4. Strategic Partnerships Expanding AI and Data Center Market Reach.
Intel's formation of key strategic partnerships enhanced its position in the rapidly expanding AI and data center markets. Collaborations announced during this period include a partnership with Fortinet to develop the Fortinet Security Processor 6, leveraging Intel's advanced design and manufacturing capabilities. A multi-year strategic collaboration with Hitachi was also established to advance physical AI and digital infrastructure across various industries, focusing on areas like foundry tools, quantum computing, and edge-AI applications. Furthermore, Intel partnered with Foxconn to develop next-generation AI infrastructure and intelligent computing platforms, particularly for data centers. These alliances underscore Intel's concerted efforts to integrate its technology into diverse, high-growth segments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 95.6% change in INTC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 90.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.13 | 86.30 | 95.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,853 | 57,032 | 7.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 7.7 | 90.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,848 | 5,104 | -5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 95.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 95.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.9% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 28.7% | 69.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 133.9% change in INTC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 147.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.90 | 86.30 | 133.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,439 | 57,032 | 6.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.1 | 7.7 | 147.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,514 | 5,104 | -11.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 133.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 133.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 46.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.0% | 62.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 285.3% change in INTC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 321.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.40 | 86.30 | 285.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,044 | 57,032 | 7.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 7.7 | 321.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,343 | 5,104 | -14.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 285.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 285.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 42.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.7% | 55.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 163.3% change in INTC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 220.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.77 | 86.30 | 163.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,416 | 57,032 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 7.7 | 220.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,154 | 5,104 | -18.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 163.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | 163.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.0% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 100.5% | 53.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INTC Return | 6% | -47% | 95% | -60% | 84% | 148% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 57% | -41% | 116% | 54% | 84% | 73% | 887% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INTC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 42% | 65% | 55% | 60% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INTC Max Drawdown | -29% | -54% | -17% | -62% | -34% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -51% | -20% | -35% | -37% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, NVDA, QCOM, AVGO, MU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | INTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 366 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Intel's stock fell -29.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Intel (INTC)
Intel Corporation (INTC) is a global technology company specializing in the design, manufacture, and sale of a wide array of computer products and technologies. At its core, Intel is renowned for providing essential platform products such as central processing units (CPUs) and chipsets, which are fundamental components powering personal computers, servers, and other computing devices worldwide. Beyond these core processors, the company also offers a variety of non-platform products including graphics cards, memory, storage solutions, accelerators, and connectivity products.
Intel's technological reach extends into diverse applications and serves a broad range of customers and markets. The company develops high-performance computing solutions for targeted industries like retail, industrial, and healthcare, often for embedded systems. Through its Mobileye segment, Intel is a key player in the assisted and autonomous driving sector, providing advanced compute platforms and computer vision systems. Its primary customers include Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), cloud service providers, large enterprises, government entities, and communications service providers, integrating Intel's innovations into their products and infrastructure.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Intel:
- Intel is like Microsoft for computer processors.
- Intel is like General Electric for microchips.
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- Central Processing Units (CPUs) & Chipsets: Core components that power computers and manage data flow.
- System-on-Chip (SoC) & Multichip Packages: Integrated solutions that combine various components onto a single package for efficiency and specialized applications.
- Accelerators & Graphics Products: Hardware designed to enhance performance for specific computing tasks and render visual content.
- Memory & Storage Products: Components for data retention and retrieval within computing systems.
- Connectivity Products: Hardware enabling network communication, such as Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and Thunderbolt.
- High-Performance Compute & Embedded Solutions: Specialized computing platforms for demanding applications in sectors like retail, industrial, and healthcare.
- Autonomous Driving Solutions (Mobileye): Comprehensive systems for self-driving vehicles, including compute platforms, sensors, and AI software.
- Workload-Optimized Platforms: Tailored computing platforms and related products for cloud, enterprise, government, and communication service providers.
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Intel's major customers are primarily other companies, as it sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers (CSPs). Major customers known to operate in these categories include:
- Dell Technologies (DELL)
- HP Inc. (HPQ)
- Lenovo Group Limited (0992.HK) - Note: Primary listing is in Hong Kong
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - for its Amazon Web Services (AWS)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - for its Azure cloud platform
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - for its Google Cloud Platform (GCP)
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- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
- KLA Corporation (KLAC)
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Lip-Bu Tan Chief Executive Officer
Lip-Bu Tan was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Intel Corporation in March 2025. He previously served as CEO of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, a period during which he doubled the company's revenue. Tan also founded Walden International in 1987, a global venture capital firm that has supported numerous successful technology startups. He holds a Bachelor of Science in physics, a Master of Science in nuclear engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the University of San Francisco.
David Zinsner Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
David Zinsner has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Intel Corporation since January 2022. Prior to joining Intel, he was the Executive Vice President and CFO at Micron Technology Inc. for nearly four years. His career also includes serving as President and Chief Operating Officer at Affirmed Networks, and as Senior Vice President of Finance and CFO at Analog Devices and Intersil Corp. At Intersil, Zinsner joined as treasurer when a private equity firm acquired the business from Harris Corporation, and he played a role in taking Intersil public.
April Miller Boise Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
April Miller Boise is the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Intel Corporation, a role she assumed in July 2022. Before her tenure at Intel, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Eaton Corp., starting in 2020. Preceding Eaton, she held the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary for Meritor Inc.
Naga Chandrasekaran Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, including Intel Foundry Services
Naga Chandrasekaran serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology and Operations Officer of Intel Foundry, with an expanded role that now includes Intel Foundry Services. He joined Intel in 2024 from Micron, where he was the Senior Vice President for technology development, bringing decades of experience in semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
Sachin Katti Chief Technology and AI Officer
Sachin Katti holds the title of Chief Technology and AI Officer at Intel. He was appointed to this additional role in mid-April 2025, where he leads Intel's overall AI strategy, AI product roadmap, Intel Labs, and engagements with the startup and developer ecosystems. Prior to this expanded responsibility, Katti led Intel's networking business.
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Key Risks to Intel's Business
- Intense Competition and Market Share Erosion: Intel faces significant competitive pressures, particularly from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the core CPU market, where Intel has experienced a substantial decline in market share. The company also lags behind NVIDIA in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) chip and GPU markets, missing out on crucial growth opportunities. The emergence of ARM-based processors further challenges Intel's traditional dominance in the x86 architecture.
- Manufacturing Delays, Execution Risks, and Losses in Foundry Business: Intel's manufacturing execution has faltered, with prolonged delays and setbacks in advancing its process technology nodes (e.g., 10nm to 7nm, and challenges with the 18A node). This has allowed competitors leveraging third-party foundries like TSMC to gain a technological edge. Furthermore, Intel's significant investments in its foundry business (Intel Foundry Services) have resulted in multi-billion dollar operating losses, with management not expecting break-even until at least 2027, highlighting substantial execution risk around capacity, yields, and capital returns.
- Financial Strain and High Capital Expenditure: Intel's financial health has deteriorated, marked by a significant revenue decline of over 30% between 2021 and 2024, plummeting gross margins, and negative free cash flow. The company's turnaround strategy (IDM 2.0) requires immense capital expenditure for foundry construction and technology development (targeting approximately $18 billion in gross capital expenditures for 2025), which places significant strain on its balance sheet and poses considerable financial risk.
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The growing adoption of ARM-based processors across key computing segments represents a clear emerging threat. Specifically, Apple's successful transition to its own ARM-based Apple Silicon for its Mac computers has eliminated a significant chunk of Intel's traditional PC business. Concurrently, major cloud service providers are increasingly developing and deploying their own custom ARM-based chips (such as AWS Graviton) to power their data centers, directly challenging Intel's dominance in the server CPU market.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Intel's main products and services:
-
Client Computing Group (CCG) - PC Market:
- The worldwide PC market shipped 245.4 million units in 2024.
- The global gaming PC market was estimated at USD 61.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.93 billion by 2030.
- The global industrial personal computer (PC) market size was estimated at USD 6.48 billion in 2024.
-
Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) - Server CPUs and AI Chips:
- The worldwide server market value is projected to reach USD 366 billion in 2025.
- The global data center CPU market size was calculated at USD 13.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.04 billion by 2034.
- The global AI data centers market size is valued at USD 17.43 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 197.57 billion by 2035.
- Intel's custom AI processor business addresses a USD 100 billion total addressable market.
-
Mobileye - Autonomous Driving Solutions:
- The global autonomous vehicles market size was projected to grow from USD 224.67 billion in 2024 to USD 7197.33 billion by 2035.
- The global autonomous vehicle sensors market size was estimated at USD 9.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 32.29 billion by 2034.
-
Internet of Things Group (IOTG) - IoT Market:
- The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030.
- The global IoT devices market size was estimated at USD 70.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 181.17 billion by 2030.
- The global IoT Edge Computing market size in 2024 stands at USD 7.8 billion and is expected to reach USD 28.7 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) - FPGA Market:
- The global field programmable gate array market size was valued at USD 12.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 13.92 billion in 2025 to USD 27.51 billion by 2032.
-
NAND Solutions Group (NSG) - NAND Flash Memory:
- The NAND Flash Memory Market size was valued at USD 71.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 161.88 billion by 2035.
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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
-
Growth in Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment: Intel anticipates significant revenue growth from its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment, particularly driven by increasing demand for AI accelerators and custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). The company reported that its custom AI processor revenue surpassed a $1 billion annual run rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a strong growth opportunity in this area. Management also highlighted the expanding role of CPUs within hyperscale and enterprise AI data centers as inference-driven AI workloads grow. Intel's Gaudi AI accelerators are a key part of this strategy, with the company seeing strong demand for these products.
-
Expansion of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) with Advanced Process Nodes: Intel is making substantial investments in its foundry business, aiming to become a leading external foundry. The success and ramp-up of advanced process technologies, such as Intel 18A, are critical to attracting external customers and boosting revenue. Intel expects its 18A node to reach commercially competitive yields in the first half of 2026, and its 14A node is projected to be market-ready by the end of 2027. Government support, including the CHIPS Act, further reinforces Intel's position as a "national champion" in semiconductor manufacturing.
-
Rebound in the Client Computing Group (CCG) Driven by AI PCs: While the Client Computing Group has faced challenges, Intel expects a rebound in this segment, primarily fueled by the growing adoption of "AI PCs." The company aims to ship over 100 million AI PCs by 2025. New product launches, including Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake, and Panther Lake CPUs, are also anticipated to contribute to revenue growth within the CCG as the broader PC market stabilizes and upgrades occur.
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Share Repurchases
- Intel's CEO stated in 2021 that the company would not be as focused on buybacks as in the past.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had an ongoing authorization to repurchase up to $110.0 billion in shares, with $7.24 billion remaining available.
Share Issuance
- Intel's net common equity issued/repurchased for 2025 was $19.506 billion, a 42.37% increase from 2024.
- In 2024, net common equity issued/repurchased amounted to $13.701 billion, which was a 148.57% increase from 2023.
- Shares outstanding for Intel in 2025 increased by 5.84% from 2024, reaching 4.53 billion.
Inbound Investments
- In Q3 2025, Intel received a $15 billion capital infusion from significant investors including the U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
- The U.S. government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel, valued at approximately $8.9 billion, through the conversion of CHIPS Act and defense grants.
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel common stock and entered a collaboration to jointly develop data center and PC products.
- SoftBank Group also made a $2 billion investment in Intel common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In the third quarter of 2025, Intel sold a majority ownership interest in Altera, a chip subsidiary, for $5.2 billion.
- Intel also divested a stake in Mobileye, resulting in billions of dollars in proceeds.
Capital Expenditures
- Intel's capital expenditures in 2024 totaled $23.94 billion, primarily directed towards expanding manufacturing capabilities, particularly in advanced process technologies.
- For the full fiscal year 2025, Intel is targeting a gross capital expenditure of $18 billion, a reduction from its previous target of $20 billion, with a focus on building out manufacturing capabilities and scaling its 18A process capacity.
- As of December 27, 2025, Intel had committed $9.1 billion for capital expenditures in 2026, with plans to increase spending on tools to address supply shortfalls for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A nodes.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 288.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 832.7 |
| Rev LTM | 57,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,764 |
| FCF LTM | 11,392 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,160 |
| CFO LTM | 22,794 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,499 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 42.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 71.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 70.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 832.7 |
| P/S | 17.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 43.6 |
| P/EBIT | 28.9 |
| P/E | 34.1 |
| P/CFO | 34.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 47.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 96.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 312.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 42.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 86.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 261.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 32,228 | 33,346 | 32,305 | 31,773 |
| Intel Foundry | 17,826 | 17,317 | 18,504 | 27,491 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 16,919 | 16,125 | 15,980 | 16,856 |
| All Other | 3,563 | 3,601 | 5,463 | 5,530 |
| Corporate unallocated | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -17,683 | -17,288 | -18,024 | -27,005 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 8,409 | |||
| Total | 52,853 | 53,101 | 54,228 | 63,054 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | 9,317 | 11,594 | 10,128 | 8,207 |
| Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI) | 3,422 | 1,414 | 945 | 4,198 |
| Intersegment eliminations | 619 | -161 | -205 | -1,975 |
| All Other | 264 | -57 | 1,507 | 1,174 |
| Corporate unallocated | -5,518 | -11,177 | -5,199 | -5,633 |
| Intel Foundry | -10,318 | -13,291 | -7,083 | -5,169 |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | 1,532 | |||
| Total | -2,214 | -11,678 | 93 | 2,334 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $86.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 438.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -38.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $112.81 | $65.95 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -23.5% | 30.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 92.3% | 78.0% |
| Downside Capture | 414.20 | 197.10 |
| Upside Capture | 351.96 | 332.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.8% | 44.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.30 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 2.89 | 2.50 | 1.86 |
| Up Beta | 2.26 | 3.48 | 2.14 | 3.32 | 2.97 | 1.82 |
| Down Beta | 3.73 | 2.55 | 3.47 | 2.88 | 2.60 | 1.74 |
| Up Capture | 584% | 700% | 992% | 886% | 993% | 1750% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 36 | 67 | 130 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 209% | 290% | 198% | 123% | 120% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 26 | 57 | 120 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 319.3% | 77.8% | 2.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 31.3% | 24.9% | 1.04 | 57.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.3% | 12.7% | 0.99 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 28.1% | 0.64 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.1% | 19.5% | 1.19 | -2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 14.1% | 0.72 | 0.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.4% | 42.9% | -1.33 | 23.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 11.2% | 53.8% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.7% | 25.6% | 0.66 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 14.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 25.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.2% | 53.4% | 0.48 | 20.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 11.8% | 45.0% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.7% | 24.8% | 0.87 | 60.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 54.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 11.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.8% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 32.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.5% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -7.9% | ||
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -10.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -7.9% | ||
| 4/23/2026 | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| 1/22/2026 | -17.0% | -10.4% | -19.7% |
| 10/23/2025 | 0.3% | 5.2% | -9.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -8.5% | -12.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | -6.7% | -7.0% | -6.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.9% | -3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 21.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -11.9% | -12.5% | -13.0% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.3% | 15.9% | 36.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | 6.6% | 0.9% | -3.4% |
| 4/27/2023 | 4.0% | 5.1% | -2.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -6.4% | 0.3% | -16.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 10.8% |
| 7/28/2022 | -8.6% | -9.3% | -15.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -6.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -7.0% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| 10/21/2021 | -11.7% | -14.1% | -11.0% |
| 7/22/2021 | -5.3% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.3% | -6.9% | -9.8% |
| 1/21/2021 | -9.3% | -10.2% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2020 | -10.6% | -18.2% | -15.2% |
| 7/23/2020 | -16.2% | -20.5% | -17.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| # Negative | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 5.1% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -10.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 41.5% | 79.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -29.0% | -23.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/24/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 15.80 Bil | 16.30 Bil | 16.80 Bil | 14.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 14.30 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross margin | 41.0% | 41.5% | 42.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 37.5% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Tax Rate | 1.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 331.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.08 for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | 23.00 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 22.70 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | 16.50 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 16.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 13.80 Bil | 14.30 Bil | 14.80 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Gross margin | 37.5% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 4.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Earnings (Loss) Per Share Attributable to Intel—Diluted | 0.08 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP operating expenses | 22.70 Bil | 24.7% | Raised | Guidance: 18.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expenses | 16.50 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 11.70 Bil | 12.20 Bil | 12.70 Bil | -8.3% | Lower New | Actual: 13.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -0.21 | 50.0% | Lower New | Actual: -0.14 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 18.20 Bil | -4.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 16.00 Bil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 12.80 Bil | 13.30 Bil | 13.80 Bil | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 13.10 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Gross Margin | 34.5% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 EPS | -0.14 | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Expenses | 19.00 Bil | 18.8% | Raised | Guidance: 16.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 4 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chandrasekaran, Nagasubramaniyan | EVP, CT & Ops Off, GM Foundry | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 118.28 | 21,024 | 2,486,698 | 24,347,969 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 99.53 | 40,256 | 4,006,519 | 10,457,894 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Boise April | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 49.05 | 20,000 | 981,000 | 5,545,593 | Form |
| 4 | Zinsner, David | EVP, CFO | Direct | Buy | 1272026 | 42.50 | 5,882 | 249,985 | 10,514,160 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 29, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $5.1 Mil | 1.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 0.4% | 28 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $22.9 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SHANDA ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS Ltd | $18.4 Mil | 0.9% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Corp | $9.5 Bil | 51.6% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Softbank Group Corp. | $3.8 Bil | 33.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $503.8 Mil | 11.5% | 40 | ADD +2133.8% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $305.5 Mil | 7.9% | 35 | ADD +167.3% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 5.9% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $99.4 Mil | 9.3% | 22 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $94.7 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 11.2% | 17 | ADD +40.6% | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $52.9 Mil | 8.1% | 15 | TRIM -9.8% | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $41.9 Mil | 16.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $39.2 Mil | 1.9% | 22 | ADD +47.9% | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $37.6 Mil | 4.1% | 44 | ADD +27.3% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $35.8 Mil | 7.7% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Deltroit Asset Management (UK) LLP | $28.3 Mil | 4.9% | 39 | ADD +37.6% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $21.4 Mil | 0.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $17.6 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $15.9 Mil | 1.1% | 29 | ADD +77.6% | 13F |
| Valueworks LLC | $15.8 Mil | 4.3% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.7 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.5 Mil | 2.6% | 36 | TRIM -77.0% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $8.9 Mil | 0.2% | 26 | ADD +20234300.0% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $8.6 Mil | 2.6% | 37 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 1.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 0.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
INTC Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Intel's turnaround is gaining momentum, fueled by record server demand from the AI buildout. Revenue growth accelerated to 25.4% and management raised guidance. While severe supply constraints currently cap potential, a massive, funded capex plan of over $20 billion for 2026 is underway to expand capacity and capture this historic opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Capital-Intensive Manufacturing & Unit SalesRevenue = (Wafer/Chip Production Volume) x (Average Selling Price per Unit) Improving manufacturing yields on leading-edge nodes (like 18A) to lower unit costs, and successfully ramping high-margin data center products to meet overwhelming AI-driven demand.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a powerful inflection, with demand outpacing supply and driving record server growth and higher prices.
- Data Center segment revenue grew 59% year-over-year.
- Management states Q2 server growth was the 'strongest on record' and demand outpaces supply.
- Company raised Q3 revenue guidance, a 14.0% change, and EPS guidance.
- Capital expenditure is guided to be more than $20 billion in 2026 to expand capacity.
PRIMARY RISK
Competitors are growing faster and are more profitable, while Intel's supply constraints and foundry transition risk ceding the massive AI opportunity to nimbler, fabless rivals.
- Trailing operating margin of 7.6% is far below NVIDIA's 64% and AMD's 11.7%.
- Management confirms 'severe supply constraints' will 'persist for the foreseeable future'.
- The foundry segment reported a -$10,318 million operating loss in fiscal 2025.
- A key risk is failing to secure demand for the Intel 14A node, making it uneconomical.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center and AI (DCAI) Segment Revenue Growth | 59% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth rate for the DCAI segment has more than doubled from the prior quarter, driven by what management described as accelerating demand across cloud and enterprise for AI infrastructure. The company noted that Xeon 6 is one of the fastest-ramping products in its history, though results were still limited by supply constraints. |
| Client Computing Group (CCG) Segment Revenue Growth | 15% sequential growth in Q2 2026 - Turning around | The segment showed a strong sequential turnaround after a prior-quarter decline. Management noted that AI PC revenue grew 26% sequentially and now represents two-thirds of the client revenue mix. However, the company also guided for PC consumption to be 'subseasonal' in the second half of 2026, citing rising memory prices and constraints. |
| Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth (YoY) | 25.4% (Q2 2026) | Indicates the rate of top-line acceleration. The significant increase from the prior quarter's 7.2% growth signals a strong inflection in demand and/or supply fulfillment. |
| Intel 14A PDK 0.9 | On track (As of Q2 2026 earnings call) | PDK (Process Design Kit) availability is a critical milestone for the foundry business. Reaching PDK 0.9 on schedule for October is essential for external customers to begin designing chips on the 14A node, which is key to the foundry's long-term success. |
| DCAI Server Growth (YoY) | Strongest on record (Q2 2026) | This qualitative KPI highlights the extreme momentum in the data center business, driven by the AI infrastructure build-out. It confirms that the company's highest-growth segment is accelerating. |
Unmet AI Demand vs. Manufacturing Bottlenecks
BULL VIEW
The historic AI demand cycle is so strong that even with execution challenges, Intel's position as a scaled US manufacturer ensures it will capture enough volume to drive significant earnings growth.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating Data Center growth of 59% YoY overcome the physical production limits that caused a - post-earnings stock decline despite a strong report?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull view is favored. Management is consistently beating guidance and aggressively investing over $20 billion in capital to resolve the bottleneck, a direct response to overwhelming demand.
BEAR VIEW
Severe, persistent supply constraints mean Intel is missing the most profitable part of the AI cycle, ceding permanent share to AMD and NVIDIA, who are executing better with higher margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
remainder of 2026 | Persistent Supply Constraints Watch: Commentary on wafer output, substrate availability, and lead times. Inability to meet demand caps revenue and risks share loss. |
end of 2026 | Nova Lake Product Launch Watch: Company expects to launch its next-generation Nova Lake product. |
7/29/2026 | Peer Results Highlighting Competitive Gap Watch: Peer reports from QCOM, AVGO, AMD, and NVDA that show continued market share gains at Intel's expense. |
9/2/2026 | Broadcom Earnings Report Watch: Peer Broadcom (AVGO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/21/2026 | Micron Earnings Report Watch: Peer Micron Technology (MU) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/21/2026 | Negative Reaction To Earnings Watch: Guidance on margins, capex, and foundry customer traction. Any disappointment could trigger a sharp sell-off. |
10/21/2026 | Intel Q3 Earnings Watch: Intel is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
second half of this year | Company Investor Day Watch: Company expects to host an Investor Day. |
No set date | Geopolitical Disruption In Israel Watch: News reports of military activity near Intel's fabrication facility in Israel or direct actions against company assets. |
October | Intel 14A PDK Release Watch: Intel 14A Process Development Kit (PDK) 0.9 is scheduled for release. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-25 | Repurchased Ireland SCIP Stake Details: On April 8, 2026, the company acquired the 49% minority ownership interest in its Ireland SCIP joint venture for approximately $14.2 billion in cash, funded by cash and a $6.5 billion term loan. | -7.9% $100.23 -> $92.32 |
2026-07-25 | Geopolitical Conflict Escalates Details: On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel initiated military strikes against Iran, which escalated and led to Iran naming Intel as a potential target, creating significant risk for its Israeli operations. | -7.9% $100.23 -> $92.32 |
2026-07-23 | Q2 Earnings Beat, Stock Falls Details: The company reported Q2 results with revenue, gross margin, and EPS above guidance. However, the two-day stock reaction was -10.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500. | -10.0% $102.62 -> $92.32 |
2026-06-11 | Analyst Issues Double Upgrade Details: A press report on June 11 noted that Bank of America issued a double upgrade to Buy from Underperform, raising its price objective to $135 from $96 on increased confidence. | +16.4% $107.04 -> $124.57 |
2026-04-23 | Strong Q1 Results Boost Stock Details: The company reported strong Q1 2026 results that beat expectations, citing 'unprecedented demand' for AI chips. The two-day stock reaction around the April 23 earnings call was 26.0%. | +26.5% $65.27 -> $82.54 |
2026-01-22 | Soft Guidance Triggers Sell-off Details: Following its Q4 2025 earnings report, the company's soft guidance for Q1 led to a stock price plunge. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -17.0%. | -16.9% $54.25 -> $45.07 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: INTC trades at roughly 84% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 16% for the S&P 500 (5.4x the market), around the 87th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
Pure-play CPU/GPU competitorAMD's fabless model delivers a higher operating margin of 11.7% versus Intel's 7.6% and avoids the capital intensity and risk of Intel's foundry strategy.
NVDA - NVIDIA
AI platform leaderNVIDIA is the undisputed leader in AI accelerators with a dominant software ecosystem, commanding vastly superior profitability with a 64% operating margin.
A capital-intensive manufacturing turnaround where revenue is currently dictated by production capacity, as demand for its core AI-enabling server products significantly outstrips its ability to supply.
Intel is in the midst of a strategic transformation, betting its future on becoming a world-class foundry while capitalizing on the AI-driven boom in data center compute. The company is currently supply-constrained across its businesses, with demand for its server CPUs described as stronger than ever. Success hinges on executing a complex and capital-intensive technology roadmap (18A, 14A) to both meet internal product needs and win the trust of external foundry customers.
Announcements of significant external customer commitments for the Intel 14A node; continued reports of demand outpacing supply for server CPUs; evidence of sustained margin expansion.
Delays in the 14A roadmap; loss of a key internal product to an external foundry; signs of demand for server CPUs softening or supply catching up to demand.
Short-term fluctuations in the PC market, which management expects to be sub-seasonal in the second half of 2026.
Repricing Catalyst
The ongoing, severe supply-demand imbalance for server CPUs, which is driving strong revenue growth and pricing power, coupled with the company raising its forward guidance for revenue and margins.
Client Computing Group (CCG)
$54.9B TTM (60% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
Sells platforms and processors that power PCs and edge devices for consumer and commercial markets, including retail, industrial robotics, and AI ecosystems at the edge.
Who Pays & How
PC manufacturers (OEMs) such as Dell, Lenovo, and HP are the primary payers. They purchase Intel's CPUs as the central component for their notebook and desktop computers, relying on the performance, features, and broad software compatibility of the x86 architecture.
Competition
Data Center and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI)
$29.4B TTM (32% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
Sells workload-optimized solutions for data centers, including CPUs (Xeon), AI accelerators, NICs, IPUs, and custom ASICs for cloud, enterprise, telecommunication, and high-performance computing (HPC) environments.
Who Pays & How
Hyperscale cloud providers (like Google), enterprises, and telecommunication companies pay for these products to build and operate their data centers. They buy them to support AI infrastructure build-outs, where CPUs play a critical role in orchestration and inference.
Competition
Intel Foundry
$32.5B TTM (36% of Total) · -56% MarginWhat It Is
Provides semiconductor manufacturing services, including technology development, wafer fabrication, assembly, test, and advanced packaging for internal (Intel Products) and external customers.
Who Pays & How
Intel's own product divisions are the primary customers (intersegment revenue). External chip designers pay for access to Intel's manufacturing capacity and advanced process technologies to produce their own silicon.
Competition
Intel — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Semiconductors Resources |
| EE Times |
| Semiconductor Engineering |
| Semiconductor Digest |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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