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Fortinet (FTNT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.51 | Market Cap: $62.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Fortinet (FTNT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.51
Market Cap: $62.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Network Security, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Network Security, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FTNT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Fortinet (FTNT) stock experienced movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, with several key events influencing its price:

1. Fortinet's Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations, but Q4 Guidance Disappoints, Causing a Stock Drop. Fortinet announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $0.74, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.63, and revenue of $1.72 billion, slightly above the $1.7 billion consensus. Despite these strong Q3 results, the company's Q4 revenue guidance of $1.825 billion to $1.885 billion (midpoint $1.855 billion) fell short of the analyst consensus of $1.88 billion, leading to a stock drop of 7-8% in post-market trading.

2. Expansion of Share Buyback Program. On August 21, 2025, Fortinet expanded its share repurchase program by $1 billion, increasing the total authorized amount to $9.25 billion and extending it through February 28, 2027. This move, with approximately $1.23 billion remaining under the program, signaled management's confidence in the company's financial health and future prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FTNT Return39%142%-32%20%61%-12%288%
Peers Return21%39%-16%43%36%29%254%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FTNT Win Rate50%75%42%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate44%56%29%52%50%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FTNT Max Drawdown-29%-7%-36%-3%-5%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-2%-27%-3%-4%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AVGO, CSCO, CHOW, ECST. See FTNT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFTNTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days120 days

Compare to MSFT, AVGO, CSCO, CHOW, ECST


In The Past

Fortinet's stock fell -38.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/17/2023. A -38.3% loss requires a 62.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Fortinet (FTNT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FTNT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
FTNT_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.2%5.2%0.0%
FTNT_5312024_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312024FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
60.2%71.6%-6.6%
FTNT_10312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312023FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
10.5%37.7%-13.4%
FTNT_2282023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper02282023FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%16.9%-16.7%
FTNT_8312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312022FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.0%23.7%-5.7%
FTNT_9302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302019FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
31.5%52.6%-1.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
FTNT_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.2%5.2%0.0%
FTNT_5312024_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312024FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
60.2%71.6%-6.6%
FTNT_10312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312023FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
10.5%37.7%-13.4%
FTNT_2282023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper02282023FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%16.9%-16.7%
FTNT_8312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312022FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.0%23.7%-5.7%
FTNT_9302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302019FTNTFortinetMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
31.5%52.6%-1.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Fortinet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FTNTMSFTAVGOCSCOCHOWECSTMedian
NameFortinet MicrosoftBroadcom Cisco Sy.ChowChow.ECST  
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Growth & Margins

FTNTMSFTAVGOCSCOCHOWECSTMedian
NameFortinet MicrosoftBroadcom Cisco Sy.ChowChow.ECST  
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Valuation

FTNTMSFTAVGOCSCOCHOWECSTMedian
NameFortinet MicrosoftBroadcom Cisco Sy.ChowChow.ECST  
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Returns

FTNTMSFTAVGOCSCOCHOWECSTMedian
NameFortinet MicrosoftBroadcom Cisco Sy.ChowChow.ECST  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Product1,9271,7801,255916788
Security subscription1,8981,4271,125919751
Technical support and other1,4791,210962759624
Total5,3054,4173,3422,5942,163


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,482,617
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume6,684,485
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.06
Basic Shares Quantity755,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021