Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (9/20/2026): $25.06 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)


Market Price (9/20/2026): $25.06
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%

Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 6.8%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%

Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%

Key risks
NOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 6.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21%
10 Key risks
NOG key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and the potential inability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its obligations, Show more.

NOG in ETFs

Weight = NOG's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.09%
IJR0.14%
VYM0.01%
VB0.03%
XOP2.2%
AVUV0.33%
+12 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 9/17/2026

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance. Northern Oil & Gas reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended in June 2026. The company announced revenue of $745.24 million, a 5.4% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $594.09 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% from fiscal Q1 2026 to $401.0 million, also surpassing analyst expectations.

2. Significant Production Growth and Free Cash Flow Generation. NOG demonstrated strong operational performance in fiscal Q2 2026, achieving a total quarterly production of 145,659 Boe per day, representing a 9% increase from fiscal Q2 2025. This included a record natural gas production of 464,330 Mcf per day, marking a 35% increase from fiscal Q2 2025. The company also generated $159.0 million in Free Cash Flow, a substantial 424% increase from fiscal Q1 2026 and 26% from fiscal Q2 2025.

Show more
Updated on 9/17/2026

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Performance. Northern Oil & Gas reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended in June 2026. The company announced revenue of $745.24 million, a 5.4% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $594.09 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% from fiscal Q1 2026 to $401.0 million, also surpassing analyst expectations.

2. Significant Production Growth and Free Cash Flow Generation. NOG demonstrated strong operational performance in fiscal Q2 2026, achieving a total quarterly production of 145,659 Boe per day, representing a 9% increase from fiscal Q2 2025. This included a record natural gas production of 464,330 Mcf per day, marking a 35% increase from fiscal Q2 2025. The company also generated $159.0 million in Free Cash Flow, a substantial 424% increase from fiscal Q1 2026 and 26% from fiscal Q2 2025.

3. Strategic Acquisitions and Enhanced Shareholder Returns. Northern Oil & Gas completed key strategic actions, including the closing of the Duvernay Light Oil Joint Development acquisition on June 1, 2026, for $262.1 million. Additionally, the company executed 30 "ground game" transactions, adding over 2,300 net acres and 6.2 net wells for $44.7 million. NOG also actively returned capital to shareholders by repurchasing 2.95 million shares in fiscal Q2 2026 at an average price of $20.37 and increasing its authorized share repurchase program to approximately $243.0 million on July 10, 2026.

4. Favorable Macroeconomic Oil Market Outlook. The broader energy market provided a tailwind for NOG, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicting a "bigger oil market crunch" in 2026. In its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected world petroleum consumption to outweigh production by 1.97 million barrels per day in 2026, forecasting Brent crude oil spot prices to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026. Similarly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in August 2026 that global oil supply was projected to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day on average in 2026, leading to a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in fiscal Q3 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 17.8% change in NOG stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269192026Change
Stock Price ($)21.2625.0517.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0592,1564.7%
P/S Multiple1.01.220.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)99106-7.0%
Cumulative Contribution17.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG17.8% 
Market (SPY)0.9%-22.6%
Sector (XLE)14.2%71.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.6% change in NOG stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820269192026Change
Stock Price ($)26.5525.05-5.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0952,1562.9%
P/S Multiple1.21.20.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)97106-8.3%
Cumulative Contribution-5.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG-5.6% 
Market (SPY)11.6%-34.1%
Sector (XLE)15.8%75.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.3% change in NOG stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120259192026Change
Stock Price ($)24.2525.053.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,2232,156-3.0%
P/S Multiple1.11.215.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)98106-7.4%
Cumulative Contribution3.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG3.3% 
Market (SPY)19.4%-8.5%
Sector (XLE)45.7%75.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.0% change in NOG stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239192026Change
Stock Price ($)35.2725.05-29.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,8272,15618.0%
P/S Multiple1.71.2-28.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)89106-16.1%
Cumulative Contribution-29.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NOG-29.0% 
Market (SPY)75.6%34.5%
Sector (XLE)58.1%80.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NOG Return137%55%26%5%-38%22%263%
Peers Return66%40%-0%46%-16%16%230%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOG Win Rate67%67%50%58%25%56% 
Peers Win Rate64%56%62%62%38%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOG Max Drawdown-33%-39%-24%-21%-50%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-25%-35%-22%-32%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventNOGS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven25 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven189.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven415 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven122.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1683 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-49.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.4%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven204 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven89.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven45 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-45.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven84.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven80 days123 days

Compare to VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG

In The Past

Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventNOGS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.5%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven25 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-65.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven189.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven415 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-55.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven122.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1683 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-49.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven96.4%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven204 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-47.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven89.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven45 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-45.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven84.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven80 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-27.3%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.5%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven86 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-68.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven213.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven66 days1085 days

Compare to VTS, GRNT, VNOM, TPL, FANG

In The Past

Northern Oil & Gas's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy company primarily engaged in the upstream sector of the oil and natural gas industry. The company's core business involves the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas properties, from their acquisition and exploration to their exploitation, development, and eventual production.

NOG's main products are crude oil and natural gas, which it extracts from its holdings across significant resource plays within the United States. The company's operations are concentrated in prolific regions such as the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin. Its primary market consists of the broader energy sector, where the crude oil and natural gas it produces are sold to refiners, pipelines, and other energy distributors for further processing and consumption across various industries and end-users in the U.S.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Northern Oil & Gas:

  • It's like a pure-play oil and gas producer, similar to the upstream division of ExxonMobil.
  • Think of it as a mining company like Barrick Gold, but for crude oil and natural gas.
  • It's like an asset management firm for oil and gas properties, acquiring and developing them for production, similar to how Blackstone manages real estate.
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  • Crude Oil: Northern Oil & Gas produces crude oil from its interests in various basins across the United States.
  • Natural Gas: Northern Oil & Gas produces natural gas from its interests in various basins across the United States.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is an upstream energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. As such, it sells its produced commodities (crude oil and natural gas) primarily to other companies within the energy sector, rather than to individuals. According to its public filings, Northern Oil & Gas has a diversified customer base and did not have any single customer that accounted for 10% or more of its revenues for the years ended December 31, 2022, or 2021. Therefore, NOG does not disclose individually named "major customers" in the traditional sense of companies representing a significant portion of its revenue. However, NOG sells its crude oil and natural gas production to a variety of purchasers that fall into the following categories:
  • Refiners: Companies that process crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
  • Integrated Oil Companies: Large companies involved in multiple aspects of the oil and gas industry, from exploration and production to refining, marketing, and distribution.
  • Pipeline and Midstream Companies: Entities responsible for gathering, processing, and transporting crude oil and natural gas from production sites to market hubs or processing facilities.
  • Marketing Companies: Trading firms or marketing divisions of larger energy companies that purchase crude oil and natural gas for resale or further distribution.
While Northern Oil & Gas does not disclose the specific names of its individual customers due to their diversified nature, representative examples of public companies operating within these customer categories in the U.S. energy market include:
  • Representative Refiners:
    • Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
    • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
    • Phillips 66 (PSX)
  • Representative Integrated Oil Companies:
    • Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
    • Chevron Corporation (CVX)
  • Representative Pipeline and Midstream Companies:
    • Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)
    • Energy Transfer LP (ET)
    • The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)

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Nicholas O'Grady, Chief Executive Officer

Nicholas O'Grady has served as Chief Executive Officer of Northern Oil & Gas since January 2020 and was named to NOG's Board of Directors in 2024. He joined NOG in June 2018 as Chief Financial Officer and also held the title of President from September 2019 until his promotion to CEO. Mr. O'Grady leads the NOG team in all aspects of the business, including acquisitions, investments, financial management, and business strategy. Over his tenure, the NOG team has executed acquisitions and related financings worth billions of dollars. Prior to NOG, he had nearly two decades of energy-related finance experience as an investment banker and a principal investor. Mr. O'Grady began his career in the Natural Resources investment banking group at Bank of America. He later worked at asset management firms such as Highbridge Capital Management and Hudson Bay Capital Management, where he focused on energy-related equities, public credit, and private and direct investments.

Chad Allen, Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Allen leads all accounting, financial, and public company-related functions as Chief Financial Officer for Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Accounting Officer since August 2016 and as the company's Corporate Controller since joining Northern in August 2013. Mr. Allen also served as the company's Interim Chief Financial Officer from January to May 2018. Before joining Northern, Mr. Allen was in the audit practice with Grant Thornton LLP from 2010 to 2013, and with McGladrey & Pullen, LLP from 2004 to 2010.

Adam Dirlam, President

Mr. Dirlam leads the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital allocation efforts at Northern Oil & Gas. He previously served as Chief Operating Officer since January 2020 and as Executive Vice President - Land since May 2018. Mr. Dirlam has held various other roles with the company since 2009. Prior to his tenure at Northern, Mr. Dirlam served in various finance and accounting roles for Honeywell International.

James Evans, Chief Technical Officer

Mr. Evans oversees all aspects of Northern Oil & Gas's engineering process, including the valuation of properties, reserves, and production forecasting. He was named Chief Technical Officer in April 2023, and prior to that, served as Executive Vice President & Chief Engineer since February 2021 and Senior Vice President of Engineering since January 2020. Mr. Evans has been with NOG since 2013, holding numerous progressive engineering roles. He began his career as a Reservoir Engineer with Cabot Oil & Gas and also worked for Cornerstone Natural Resources and Fidelity Exploration.

Erik Romslo, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary

Mr. Romslo oversees all legal, regulatory, and SEC-related matters as Chief Legal Officer and facilitates all Board functions as Secretary. He joined Northern Oil & Gas as General Counsel and Secretary in October 2011, and was promoted to Executive Vice President in January 2013, before becoming Chief Legal Officer in January 2020. Before joining the company, Mr. Romslo practiced law in the Minneapolis office of Faegre Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP (formerly Faegre & Benson LLP) from 2005 until 2011, where he was a member of the Corporate group.

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The key risks to Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) are primarily associated with the volatile nature of the energy industry and its operational model.

Key Risks to Northern Oil & Gas

  1. Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent energy company, Northern Oil & Gas's revenues are significantly influenced by the fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). These prices are highly volatile and subject to numerous factors beyond the company's control, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and actions by organizations like OPEC+. While Northern Oil & Gas employs hedging strategies to mitigate some of this volatility, these measures only partially reduce the risk and do not eliminate it entirely. Extended periods of low commodity prices can adversely affect the company's financial position, results of operations, cash flow, and the economic viability of its reserves.
  2. Dependency on Third-Party Operators: Northern Oil & Gas operates as a non-operator, meaning it acquires working interests in wells but relies on third parties for drilling, completion, and overall operational management. This business model means that NOG has limited control over operational decisions, the timing of well completions, and the execution of development plans. The success of its business, therefore, extensively depends on the performance and financial stability of these third-party operators. Operator deferrals or challenges faced by these operators, particularly in a low commodity price environment, can negatively impact NOG's production, cash flow, and financial condition.
  3. Financial Leverage and Debt: Northern Oil & Gas carries a significant debt load, which poses a substantial financial risk. The company's liabilities are considerable compared to its cash and near-term receivables, suggesting that shareholders should closely monitor its debt management. Historically, Northern Oil & Gas has experienced periods of negative free cash flow, raising questions about its long-term financial flexibility. High debt levels can lead to increased financing costs and may necessitate raising new equity capital at potentially unfavorable prices, leading to shareholder dilution. Furthermore, covenants within the instruments governing its indebtedness may restrict the company's ability to pay dividends.

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The global energy transition away from fossil fuels, driven by the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, the rapid growth of electric vehicles, and more stringent environmental policies aimed at decarbonization, poses a clear emerging threat to Northern Oil & Gas. This trend threatens to reduce long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, potentially leading to declining asset values, stranded reserves, and diminished access to capital for exploration and production activities.

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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) primarily focuses on the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties across various basins in the United States, including the Williston, Appalachian, Permian, and Uinta Basins. Therefore, its addressable markets are the crude oil and natural gas markets within the U.S.

The overall U.S. oil and gas market was estimated at approximately USD 1.55 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 1.61 trillion in 2025. This market is expected to reach around USD 2.24 trillion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.75% between 2025 and 2034.

Specifically for natural gas, the U.S. natural gas market size is valued at approximately USD 473.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 601.8 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% during this forecast period.

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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Strategic Acquisitions and "Ground Game" Initiatives: Northern Oil & Gas consistently pursues strategic acquisitions, focusing on non-operated working interests and "ground game" opportunities. These involve acquiring small, accretive working-interest packages with near-term cash flow and low-risk proved undeveloped (PUD) conversions. For example, in October 2024, NOG acquired a 20% interest in Uinta Basin assets for approximately $511.3 million, and in February 2025, it expanded its Permian Basin footprint by acquiring 2,275 net acres for $40 million. This ongoing strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and ground game purchases contributes significantly to expanding its asset base and, consequently, its production capacity and revenue.
  2. Multi-Basin Diversification and Expansion: The company is strategically rebalancing its portfolio to mitigate basin-specific risks and enhance cash flow. This involves shifting from a concentration in the Bakken to an oil-weighted Permian footprint and incorporating gas optionality in the Marcellus and Appalachian basins. NOG's growth strategy emphasizes multi-basin diversification, including targeted expansion into the Permian and Marcellus, and has expanded its operational footprint into new territories like the Uinta Basin.
  3. Increased Production from Existing and New Assets: NOG aims to sustain and grow production volumes through capital efficiency and the development of its extensive inventory. The company targets thousands of future gross locations by adding de-risked locations across its various basins through quarterly bolt-ons. For instance, in Q4 2025, Northern Oil & Gas reported an average daily production of 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, a 7% increase from Q3 2025, with natural gas production reaching a record 392 million cubic feet (MMcf) per day, up 24% from Q4 2024. The company has also provided 2026 guidance projecting production between 139,000 and 148,000 BOE per day.
  4. Technological Innovation and Operational Efficiency: Northern Oil & Gas is focusing on leveraging data and advanced techniques to maximize performance across its diverse, non-operated portfolio. This commitment to technological innovation and operational efficiency helps to optimize production from its assets and can lead to increased output and potentially lower operating costs, thereby positively impacting revenue.
  5. Shift to Drill-Ready Projects: In 2026, Northern Oil & Gas plans to adjust its "ground game" strategy by transitioning from leasing activities to focusing more on drill-ready projects. This shift is anticipated to capitalize on opportunities that were previously less attractive, potentially leading to a more immediate realization of production and revenue.

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Share Repurchases

  • Northern Oil & Gas increased its share repurchase authorization by $100 million in March 2025, adding to an existing $100 million remaining on the program.
  • In 2024, the company repurchased 2,535,391 shares at a weighted average price of $37.27, contributing to approximately $260 million in total shareholder returns for the year.
  • During the first three quarters of 2025, NOG completed $50.0 million in common stock repurchases, as part of $179.7 million returned to shareholders. In Q2 2025, over 1.1 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $31.15 per share.

Share Issuance

  • In March 2026, Northern Oil & Gas completed a public offering of 7,207,208 common shares, raising approximately $200 million in gross proceeds. The net proceeds are designated for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility.
  • The company issued $200 million in 3.625% convertible unsecured notes due April 2029 in September 2025, generating approximately $211.2 million in gross proceeds.

Outbound Investments

  • Since 2018, NOG has executed over $5.0 billion in bolt-on strategic acquisitions and numerous "Ground-Game" interests in wells and drill-cos.
  • In February 2026, NOG completed the acquisition of non-operated interests in the Utica Shale in Ohio from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream for a cash payment of $464.5 million, securing a 40% stake in these assets.
  • In October 2024, NOG finalized the acquisition of Uinta Basin assets from XCL Resources, LLC for $511.3 million in cash, and in September 2024, acquired Delaware Basin assets from Point Energy Partners for $205.0 million.

Capital Expenditures

  • Total capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $1.0 billion, which included $173.5 million for elective ground game opportunities. Initial guidance for 2025 capex ranged from $1,050 million to $1,200 million, later reduced to $925 million to $1,050 million.
  • The primary focus of 2025 capital spending was on the Permian Basin (57-66%), followed by the Williston, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins.
  • For 2026, the capital budget is designed to drive growth, with an anticipated activity split of 40% in the Permian, 25% in Appalachia, 25% in Williston, and 10% in Uinta Basins.

Better Bets vs. Northern Oil & Gas (NOG)

Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

NOG has trailed 58% of its 50 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are CNQ, EOG and DVN. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ranks 5th of 7 industries in Energy by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Oil & Gas Exploration & Production constituents that NOG has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
29%
of 59 industry peers · 7.8% return
3Y
22%
of 55 industry peers · -24.2% return
5Y
42%
of 50 industry peers · 84.0% return
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production peers with revenue growth within 4pp of NOG's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
NOG Northern Oil & Gas 6.0% -5.5x 7.8%-24.2%84.0%
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources 7.2% 8.8x 63.8%81.6%295.4% +211pp
EOG EOG Resources 2.5% 11.0x 28.7%27.8%155.3% +71pp
DVN Devon Energy 5.5% 13.9x 46.8%12.0%118.4% +34pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Energy sector, ranked by 5Y. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is NOG's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 11 127.9%123.5%479.9% PBF 784% · MPC 731% · VLO 666%
Integrated Oil & Gas 7 41.9%55.0%263.0% IMO 454% · SU 360% · CVE 341%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 18 33.9%112.8%215.0% INSW 1075% · LPG 1011% · TRGP 636%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 34 49.6%17.4%111.8% SEI 1074% · FTI 1002% · TDW 698%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← 51 28.9%10.7%97.2% KGEI 10187% · OBE 7421% · EP 2332%
Coal & Consumable Fuels 14 -10.0%32.8%94.5% EU 799% · LEU 353% · CCJ 336%
Oil & Gas Drilling 7 66.4%2.0%93.1% VAL 173% · PDS 164% · NE 99%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Mkt Price25.0517.514.9042.27352.67192.4233.66
Mkt Cap2.70.70.68.224.354.15.4
Rev LTM2,1562844962,03689816,9821,467
Op Inc LTM632201021,0096726,057652
FCF LTM-29435-102198763,68255
FCF 3Y Avg-26826-76-388197-893-172
CFO LTM1,3811362561,49560310,143992
CFO 3Y Avg1,3881462789585307,857744

Growth & Margins

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.0%8.5%14.6%107.5%20.8%21.2%17.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.0%-5.2%45.4%11.5%28.4%11.5%
Rev Chg Q16.8%11.3%36.7%126.6%31.2%51.3%33.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.7%3.4%8.8%22.7%7.0%12.4%7.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM-17.5%-43.4%-12.6%77.0%19.3%23.1%3.4%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-13.3%--16.0%26.8%9.8%7.7%7.7%
Op Mgn LTM29.3%7.0%20.6%49.6%74.9%35.7%32.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.0%15.5%24.8%60.3%76.6%41.0%38.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.8%0.6%4.2%6.4%0.5%4.7%3.5%
CFO/Rev LTM64.1%47.9%51.7%73.4%67.2%59.7%61.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg63.7%55.1%63.8%72.8%68.9%59.0%63.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.6%12.2%-20.7%9.7%8.5%21.7%9.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-12.3%9.5%-16.8%-43.4%27.9%-5.3%-8.8%

Valuation

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
Mkt Cap2.70.70.68.224.354.15.4
P/S1.22.61.34.027.13.22.9
P/Op Inc4.237.06.38.136.28.98.5
P/EBIT-5.6-215.8874.429.034.925.327.2
P/E-5.5-65.4-23.2138.844.936.915.7
P/CFO1.95.42.55.540.35.35.4
Total Yield-11.6%10.5%4.7%10.6%2.9%4.9%4.8%
Dividend Yield6.8%12.0%9.0%9.9%0.6%2.2%7.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.3%3.3%-11.0%-8.8%1.0%-2.6%-5.7%
D/E1.00.20.70.20.00.20.2
Net D/E1.00.20.70.2-0.00.20.2

Returns

NOGVTSGRNTVNOMTPLFANGMedian
NameNorthern.Vitesse .Granite .Viper En.Texas Pa.Diamondb. 
1M Rtn-6.9%4.5%-3.3%-6.1%-4.4%-8.8%-5.3%
3M Rtn32.0%12.0%6.8%-0.6%-0.5%5.4%6.1%
6M Rtn-9.7%-7.5%-6.7%-9.4%-31.9%1.0%-8.4%
12M Rtn7.8%-16.7%-0.9%19.7%21.6%41.1%13.7%
3Y Rtn-24.2%2.9%4.0%61.0%75.4%40.4%22.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.1%7.4%-2.5%-2.9%-4.6%-7.0%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn30.0%10.0%4.8%-2.6%-2.5%3.4%4.1%
6M Excs Rtn-24.2%-21.5%-21.8%-23.8%-49.4%-13.6%-22.8%
12M Excs Rtn-11.5%-36.8%-19.0%2.3%0.7%24.4%-5.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-98.8%-73.9%-59.7%-10.3%13.7%-33.4%-46.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties2,4762,2262,1661,571 
Gain (Loss) on Commodity Derivatives, Net    -478
Natural Gas and Natural gas liquids (NGL) Revenues    202
Oil Revenues    773
Other    0
Total2,4762,2262,1661,571497


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$25.05 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.7 
First Trading Date04/13/2007 
Distance from 52W High-15.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$23.64$23.49
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA5.9%6.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility49.8%46.0%
Downside Capture-234.47-63.00
Upside Capture-60.69-42.91
Correlation (SPY)-28.6%-8.8%
NOG Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.86-1.76-0.90-1.20-0.321.00
Up Beta-1.050.12-1.55-1.95-0.981.17
Down Beta1.03-1.840.44-0.110.961.65
Up Capture78%-59%-54%-67%-24%14%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days12233368132396
Down Capture-464%-641%-225%-222%-121%86%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days9183058117349

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG4.5%46.1%0.23-
Sector ETF (XLE)46.5%21.8%1.6675.1%
Equity (SPY)16.9%12.9%0.94-8.7%
Gold (GLD)19.1%29.3%0.60-1.5%
Commodities (DBC)46.3%20.6%1.7358.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%13.6%0.10-5.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.6%44.3%-0.707.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG12.8%48.9%0.41-
Sector ETF (XLE)26.3%25.7%0.8979.6%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.2%0.5737.4%
Gold (GLD)19.1%18.8%0.836.8%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.5%0.4559.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.8%-0.0524.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.5%52.5%0.4216.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with NOG
NOG-0.8%70.3%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLE)10.3%29.6%0.3863.3%
Equity (SPY)15.1%18.0%0.7235.0%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.4%0.613.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.3747.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%20.7%0.1825.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.6%66.2%1.028.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 81520266.6%
Average Daily Volume2.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity105.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares20.5%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/20266.5%20.6%27.8%
4/28/20261.4%-3.3%-21.1%
2/25/2026-0.9%7.2%14.8%
11/6/20255.5%7.9%18.9%
7/31/2025-11.1%-12.4%-7.1%
4/29/2025-1.9%-1.3%9.7%
2/19/2025-0.1%-9.4%-13.0%
11/5/202411.7%10.7%12.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151516
# Negative10109
Median Positive5.6%7.7%13.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-5.1%-11.8%
Max Positive11.7%23.7%128.3%
Max Negative-11.1%-12.4%-21.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/20266.5%20.6%27.8%
4/28/20261.4%-3.3%-21.1%
2/25/2026-0.9%7.2%14.8%
11/6/20255.5%7.9%18.9%
7/31/2025-11.1%-12.4%-7.1%
4/29/2025-1.9%-1.3%9.7%
2/19/2025-0.1%-9.4%-13.0%
11/5/202411.7%10.7%12.9%
7/30/20246.3%-10.4%-2.2%
4/30/2024-2.7%-0.2%-1.8%
2/22/2024-0.1%3.2%12.8%
11/1/20232.3%-5.7%0.2%
8/2/20235.6%7.7%6.2%
5/4/20232.9%1.6%0.5%
2/23/20231.0%2.4%-10.8%
11/8/2022-3.5%6.6%-11.8%
8/3/2022-6.6%2.4%10.3%
5/5/20227.1%-4.4%25.4%
2/24/20221.5%10.4%26.2%
11/5/20216.5%-0.7%-19.0%
8/5/20216.9%11.0%9.2%
5/7/20219.5%0.1%28.0%
3/12/2021-1.4%-12.2%-17.0%
1/7/20211.8%13.9%13.4%
11/6/2020-1.7%23.7%128.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151516
# Negative10109
Median Positive5.6%7.7%13.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-5.1%-11.8%
Max Positive11.7%23.7%128.3%
Max Negative-11.1%-12.4%-21.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202604/29/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/31/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/07/202110-Q
12/31/202003/12/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/07/202010-Q
03/31/202005/11/202010-Q
12/31/201903/12/202010-K
09/30/201911/12/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/7/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Annual ProductionReported0.14 Mil0.15 Mil0.15 Mil   
2026 Annual Oil ProductionReported71,50072,50073,500   
2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-LineReported747576   
2026 Total Budgeted Capital ExpendituresReported850.00 Mil875.00 Mil900.00 Mil   


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 TILs AccelerationReported      

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Annual ProductionReported0.14 Mil0.14 Mil0.15 Mil7.7% Higher NewActual: 0.13 Mil for 2025
2026 Annual Oil ProductionReported68,00072,00076,000-5.0% Lower NewActual: 75,750 for 2025
2026 Net Total Wells Turned-in-LineReported67.577.287   
2026 Total Capital ExpendituresReported850.00 Mil975.00 Mil1.10 Bil-1.3% Lower NewActual: 987.50 Mil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Annual ProductionReported0.13 Mil0.13 Mil0.13 Mil1.3% RaisedGuidance: 0.13 Mil for 2025
2025 Annual Oil ProductionReported75,00075,75076,5001.0% RaisedGuidance: 75,000 for 2025
2025 Total Capital ExpendituresReported950.00 Mil987.50 Mil1.02 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 987.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Akradi, Bahram DirectBuy624202619.4025,760499,74133,240,642Form
2Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202523.3810,000233,8371,943,934Form
3Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202524.4615,000366,9331,788,970Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Akradi, Bahram DirectBuy624202619.4025,760499,74133,240,642Form
2Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202523.3810,000233,8371,943,934Form
3Easley, Roy Ernest DirectBuy1212202524.4615,000366,9331,788,970Form

NOG Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

NOG is at an inflection point. A sharp Q2 free cash flow recovery and a growing well backlog of almost 52 net wells suggest a cyclical turn. However, high debt of $2.7 billion and a history of funding returns with leverage create significant risk. The investment case hinges on sustaining recent cash generation to service debt and self-fund growth.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
null

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can Accelerating Cash Flow Close the Widening Asset Value Gap?

Evidence points to a positive inflection, with Q2 free cash flow up over 400% sequentially and management highlighting a significant disconnect between its stock price and an internal asset valuation.

Mechanism: As operator activity accelerates (new well elections up almost 20%), NOG's growing production (up 9% YoY in Q2) at higher realized prices drives free cash flow. This cash can be used to deleverage and fund aggressive buybacks (2.95 million shares in Q2), forcing a re-rating.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Q2 free cash flow increased over 400% from the first quarter.
  • The inventory of wells-in-process grew to almost 52 net wells.
  • The company elected to participate in 17 net wells in Q2, up almost 20% from the TTM run-rate.
  • 2.95 million shares, or 3% of the company, were repurchased in Q2 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Leverage Overload Stalls Recovery

The recovery is funded by debt, not sustainable cash flow. Net debt has risen to $2.7 billion (8.33x TTM EBITDA), and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$294.2 million. A dip in commodity prices could make the debt unmanageable.

Mechanism: A failure to generate positive free cash flow in the upcoming quarter would confirm the unsustainability of the current capital plan.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Net debt is $2.7 billion, up from $2.3 billion a year earlier.
  • Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$294.2 million.
  • Interest coverage is low at 2.8 times.
  • TTM operating expenses grew 36.2% while revenue declined 3%.
  • The company recently priced a new $500 million debt offering.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Production Volume (Boe/d)145,659 Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day (Boe/d) for Q2 2026 - StableThe year-over-year growth remains solid, but the sequential decline was caused by temporary, economically-driven production curtailments in the Permian basin due to challenging local gas pricing. Management stated on the Q2 2026 earnings call that these volumes were already coming back online.
Net Wells Added to Production12.7 net wells added to production in Q2 2026 - Turning aroundWhile the number of wells turned online in Q2 was lower than in late 2025, forward-looking indicators are positive. Management noted on the Q2 2026 call that the backlog of wells in process grew to almost 52 net wells and that the company elected to participate in approximately 17 new net wells, a pace up almost 20% from the trailing 12-month run rate.
Core Investment Debate

Cash Flow Inflection vs. Debt Overhang

BULL VIEW

The 400%+ sequential jump in Q2 free cash flow is the start of a sustainable trend, driven by higher operator activity and prices, which will allow for rapid deleveraging and continued shareholder returns, closing the valuation gap.

CORE TENSION

Can the Q2 cash flow surge outpace the rising $2.7 billion debt burden, which the market previously punished?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. The Q2 cash flow inflection and growing well backlog (almost 52) are tangible forward indicators that outweigh the lagging TTM debt metrics.

BEAR VIEW

The Q2 cash flow was a one-time commodity price windfall masking a structurally broken model. The $2.7 billion in net debt and negative TTM free cash flow mean the company is borrowing to pay dividends and buy back stock.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
back half of 2026
Permian Gas Weakness
Watch: Q3 realized natural gas prices, commentary on production curtailments, and status of new Permian takeaway capacity.
back half of 2026
Permian Infrastructure Projects Online
Watch: Management expects planned infrastructure projects to come online, potentially alleviating gas realization weakness in the Permian.
September 29, 2026
Quarterly Dividend Record Date
Watch: The record date for the declared cash dividend of $0.45 per share.
October 30, 2026
Quarterly Dividend Payment
Watch: The payment date for the declared cash dividend of $0.45 per share.
11/2/2026
Peer Contagion
Watch: Peer commentary on cost inflation, activity levels in the Permian and Williston, and gas takeaway issues.
11/6/2026
Leverage Scrutiny
Watch: Management commentary on debt reduction plans and use of proceeds from the recent debt issuance.
11/6/2026
Earnings Disappointment
Watch: Q3 margin performance, updates to full-year guidance, and commentary on cost pressures versus production volumes.
11/6/2026
Company Reports Q3 Results
Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-08-19
New Debt Issuance
Details: The company announced and priced a $500 million private offering of senior notes.
+6.0%
$25.39 -> $26.91
2026-08-07
Strong Q2 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock had a two-day positive reaction of 16.0% around the Q2 earnings call, versus 1.0% for the S&P 500.
+15.8%
$20.28 -> $23.49
2026-07-13
Q2 Guidance Reaffirmed
Details: In a mid-quarter update, NOG reiterated its 2026 production and capital expenditure guidance and noted the closing of its Duvernay acquisition.
+8.7%
$18.52 -> $20.14
2026-05-13
Quarterly Dividend Maintained
Details: The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.45 per share, equal to the prior quarterly dividend.
-2.1%
$23.31 -> $22.81
2026-04-29
Negative Q1 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock had a two-day negative reaction of -1.0% around the Q1 earnings call.
-1.5%
$26.91 -> $26.52
2026-03-27
Post-Earnings Stock Rally
Details: Following its Q4 2025 earnings report, the stock was up 15.9% over the next 30 days.
-0.2%
$29.26 -> $29.21
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: NOG trades at roughly 42% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market), around the 15th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
VNOM - Viper Energy
High-Growth, High-Margin

Viper Energy offers superior profitability, with a 49.6% operating margin versus NOG's 29.3%, and explosive TTM revenue growth of 107.5%. It provides more direct exposure to high-quality acreage performance.

Core Thesis: An investment in a pure-play, high-margin mineral and royalty interest owner with exceptional recent growth.
FANG - a business partner
Scale and Efficiency

As a large, integrated operator with 7.9 times NOG's revenue, Diamondback offers superior scale, higher operating margins (35.7%), and better capital efficiency. It represents a more stable, lower-cost producer profile.

Core Thesis: An investment in a scaled, efficient E&P operator with direct control over development and costs.
How Is The Market Pricing NOG?

What will confirm the thesis

What will damage the thesis

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Repricing Catalyst

What NOG Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties
$1.9B TTM (100% of Total)
What It Is

This segment represents the company's entire business, which involves investing in non-operated interests in oil and gas properties. It derives revenue from the sale of its share of oil, natural gas, and NGLs to a variety of purchasers, including energy marketing companies and refineries.

Who Pays & How

Purchasers of crude oil and natural gas pay for the production, with payments remitted to NOG through its third-party operating partners. NOG's model allows it to diversify risk across a large number of wells and experienced operators in premier U.S. basins.

Sales prices are tied to spot market benchmarks for oil (NYMEX WTI) and natural gas (NYMEX Henry Hub), with adjustments for regional price differentials, transportation costs, and product quality. The company uses derivative contracts to hedge a portion of its production to achieve more predictable cash flows.
Competition
The oil and gas industry is intensely competitive, with NOG competing against numerous other exploration and production companies, many with substantially greater resources.
Larger or integrated competitors may be better able to absorb the burden of regulations. Competitors also include entities with greater technical, physical, and financial resources.
NOG's non-operator model allows it to diversify investment and operational risk across a large number of wells, basins, and over 100 experienced operating partners. The company also leverages proprietary AI-powered evaluation tools and a strong industry reputation to source acquisitions.
NOG Evolution: Price Return by Era
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
10 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · Golden Cross
2 Momentum Pausing
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Facing Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Reward
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/19/2026