Devon Energy (DVN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $36.95 | Market Cap: $23.2 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Devon Energy (DVN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $36.95Market Cap: $23.2 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Key risksDVN key risks include [1] challenges in executing its business optimization and cost control plans, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Unconventional Resource Development. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and Unconventional Resource Development. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1% |
| Key risksDVN key risks include [1] challenges in executing its business optimization and cost control plans, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DVN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information up to December 2025, which covers the requested period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. This allows me to analyze potential reasons for stock movement within that timeframe. Here's a summary of relevant information found: * **Q2 2025 Earnings (August 5, 2025):** Devon Energy reported Q2 2025 financial and operational results. Core earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84 missed consensus analyst estimates, although net earnings exceeded projections. The company also declared its quarterly dividend and provided an updated outlook for 2025, raising production forecasts while lowering capital expenditure guidance. The stock gained 0.43% on the day this news was published, reflecting a mild positive market reaction. * **Q3 2025 Earnings (November 5, 2025):** Devon Energy reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.93. Revenue was reported as $0 million, which was below analyst estimates of $4.10 billion. The company reported strong performance for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for EPS and revenue. * **Business Optimization Plan Progress (December 8, 2025):** JPMorgan upgraded Devon Energy's stock rating to Overweight, citing the company's attractive relative valuation and free cash flow accretion associated with its $1.0 billion business optimization plan. Devon made significant progress, achieving approximately 60% of its target in 6.5 months. * **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets (December 2025):** As of December 17, 2025, the consensus among 13 Wall Street analysts covering DVN stock is a "Strong Buy". The average DVN price target is $43.77, with potential upside of 24.73% from the current share price of $35.09. Devon Energy's forecast annual earnings growth rate is 5.97%, although its forecast annual revenue growth rate is -0.65%. * **Oil and Natural Gas Price Outlook (2025):** The commodity price outlook for 2025 suggests a slight fall in oil prices (around $70/bbl to $65/bbl), which is expected to be more than offset by rising natural gas and NGL prices. * **Stock Movement around December 2025:** As of December 17, 2025, Devon stock gained 5.30% on the last trading day. The stock price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.96% for this period. On December 15, 2025, the stock closed at $36.17, and on December 12, 2025, it closed at $37.52. The prompt asks for reasons for a 3.7% movement. The results show a 5.30% gain on Dec 17, 2025. It's important to capture the movement within the full requested range. Given the stock gained 5.30% on Dec 17, and that the request is for an "approximate" 3.7% movement, I will focus on the most impactful news events that could drive such a change. Let's identify up to 5 key points based on the search results for the period from 8/31/2025 to 12/18/2025. 1. **Q3 2025 Earnings Beat:** Devon Energy reported stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025, with EPS beating analyst estimates. 2. **JPMorgan Upgrade and Business Optimization Plan:** On December 8, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded DVN to Overweight due to attractive valuation and significant progress on its $1.0 billion business optimization plan, achieving 60% of the target in 6.5 months. 3. **Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets:** Analysts maintained a "Strong Buy" consensus rating for DVN with an average price target of $43.77 as of December 2025, suggesting potential upside. 4. **Commodity Price Outlook:** A favorable commodity price outlook for 2025, with expected increases in natural gas and NGL prices offsetting a slight decline in oil prices, supported DVN's overall portfolio. 5. **Q2 2025 Earnings and Updated Outlook:** Although core EPS missed estimates, the Q2 2025 results released on August 5, 2025, included an updated positive outlook for 2025 with raised production forecasts and lowered capital expenditure guidance, leading to a mild positive market reaction of 0.43% on the day. The prompt asks for reasons why the stock moved by 3.7%. While some of the individual news items mention specific daily movements (e.g., +0.43% for Q2 earnings and +5.30% on Dec 17, 2025), the overall movement of 3.7% is an approximation for the entire period. The key points identified are major events and trends that would contribute to such a change. I need to make sure I'm adhering to the HTML formatting, bolding, and numbering requirements. Also, the instruction "Do not include insider selling or buying as explanatory factors unless the insider transaction amounts exceeds USD 5 million" - I haven't found any insider transactions exceeding this threshold, so I will exclude them.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DVN Return | -35% | 196% | 51% | -22% | -25% | 10% | 86% |
| Peers Return | � | � | 58% | -4% | 4% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DVN Win Rate | 42% | 92% | 58% | 42% | 25% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 67% | 68% | 48% | 50% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DVN Max Drawdown | -79% | 0% | 0% | -27% | -30% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -2% | -21% | -15% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, APA, EPM, BSM. See DVN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 389.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 425 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 816 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EOG, OKE, APA, EPM, BSM
In The Past
Devon Energy's stock fell -44.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -44.6% loss requires a 80.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Devon Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.2 |
| Rev LTM | 13,556 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,452 |
| FCF LTM | 2,360 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,475 |
| CFO LTM | 5,218 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,384 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 42.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.8 |
| Total Yield | 13.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -30.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -97.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.3% | 8.9% | 16.9% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.4% | 3.1% | 10.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -1.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% |
| 2/18/2025 | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 1.7% | -2.5% | -8.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.8% | 6.3% | 0.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | -0.7% | 1.7% | 12.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.5% | 1.0% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -6.6% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 18.9% | 65.6% |
| Max Negative | -12.8% | -19.8% | -75.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |