Obsidian Energy (OBE)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.59 | Market Cap: $375.1 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Obsidian Energy (OBE)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.59Market Cap: $375.1 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -312 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Oil & Gas Production, and Canadian Energy Supply. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -67% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.79 | ||
| Key risksOBE key risks include [1] a vulnerability to low commodity prices which has historically forced operational reductions and can impede expansion plans, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Oil & Gas Production, and Canadian Energy Supply. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -312 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -67% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.79 |
| Key risksOBE key risks include [1] a vulnerability to low commodity prices which has historically forced operational reductions and can impede expansion plans, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OBE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that contributed to Obsidian Energy's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:
1. Elevated Net Operating Costs in Q3 2025: Obsidian Energy reported higher-than-expected net operating costs of CAD$15.01 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in the third quarter of 2025. This increase was primarily attributed to higher trucking costs and increased processing fees related to its Peace River heavy oil operating activities.
2. Negative Free Cash Flow in Q3 2025: The company experienced a negative free cash flow of CAD$23.5 million in the third quarter of 2025. This was mainly due to increased spending aimed at rebuilding production following the divestiture of its Pembina assets.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBE Return | -77% | 0% | 3974% | 2% | -15% | -4% | 671% |
| Peers Return | -49% | 79% | 27% | 91% | -4% | 6% | 125% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBE Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 37% | 37% | 32% | 35% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBE Max Drawdown | -78% | 0% | 0% | -18% | -27% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -69% | -2% | -0% | -22% | -17% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BTE, ARX, VET, GTE, CVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OBE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -82.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 485.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 675 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -95.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2009.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 867 days | 120 days |
Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY
In The Past
Obsidian Energy's stock fell -54.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -54.2% loss requires a 118.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Obsidian Energy Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.2% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.0% | 27.0% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Obsidian Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,602 |
| Op Inc LTM | 331 |
| FCF LTM | 396 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 398 |
| CFO LTM | 824 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,099 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 42.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 4.5 |
| P/E | -1.6 |
| P/CFO | 1.3 |
| Total Yield | -27.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |