Tearsheet

Obsidian Energy (OBE)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.59 | Market Cap: $375.1 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Obsidian Energy (OBE)


Market Price (12/22/2025): $5.59
Market Cap: $375.1 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -312 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Oil & Gas Production, and Canadian Energy Supply.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -67%
3   Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.79
4   Key risks
OBE key risks include [1] a vulnerability to low commodity prices which has historically forced operational reductions and can impede expansion plans, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin Oil & Gas Production, and Canadian Energy Supply.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -312 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -67%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.79
7 Key risks
OBE key risks include [1] a vulnerability to low commodity prices which has historically forced operational reductions and can impede expansion plans, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OBE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that contributed to Obsidian Energy's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:

1. Elevated Net Operating Costs in Q3 2025: Obsidian Energy reported higher-than-expected net operating costs of CAD$15.01 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in the third quarter of 2025. This increase was primarily attributed to higher trucking costs and increased processing fees related to its Peace River heavy oil operating activities.

2. Negative Free Cash Flow in Q3 2025: The company experienced a negative free cash flow of CAD$23.5 million in the third quarter of 2025. This was mainly due to increased spending aimed at rebuilding production following the divestiture of its Pembina assets.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OBE Return-77%0%3974%2%-15%-4%671%
Peers Return-49%79%27%91%-4%6%125%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OBE Win Rate0%0%58%50%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate35%37%37%32%35%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OBE Max Drawdown-78%0%0%-18%-27%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-69%-2%-0%-22%-17%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BTE, ARX, VET, GTE, CVE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOBES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-82.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven485.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven675 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-95.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2009.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven867 days120 days

Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY


In The Past

Obsidian Energy's stock fell -54.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -54.2% loss requires a 118.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Obsidian Energy (OBE)

Better Bets than Obsidian Energy (OBE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OBE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%11.2%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.0%27.0%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.2%11.2%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
27.0%27.0%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Obsidian Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OBEBTEARXVETGTECVEMedian
NameObsidian.Baytex E.Accelera.Vermilio.Gran Tie.Cenovus . 
Mkt Price5.613.0916.318.103.8516.666.86
Mkt Cap0.42.43.41.20.129.81.8
Rev LTM7043,8308252,37862056,6021,602
Op Inc LTM-312616-331204,328331
FCF LTM-4420586373-1062,824396
FCF 3Y Avg-4398-543-103,743398
CFO LTM3121,7276251,0231837,849824
CFO 3Y Avg3461,589-1,0992328,4711,099

Growth & Margins

OBEBTEARXVETGTECVEMedian
NameObsidian.Baytex E.Accelera.Vermilio.Gran Tie.Cenovus . 
Rev Chg LTM-11.9%-10.0%61.3%25.7%-1.6%-4.8%-3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.4%13.2%--10.0%-3.7%-6.6%-6.4%
Rev Chg Q-41.1%-13.7%85.9%15.4%-1.4%-4.5%-3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-11.5%-3.7%18.7%2.7%-0.3%-1.1%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-44.3%16.1%-13.9%3.2%7.6%7.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.0%18.2%-16.4%18.8%9.0%16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-11.0%-1.4%--0.7%-7.1%0.9%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM44.3%45.1%75.7%43.0%29.5%13.9%43.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg45.3%42.7%-49.2%36.7%14.8%42.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.6%11.0%71.0%15.7%-17.1%5.0%8.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.5%10.4%-24.1%-1.7%6.5%6.5%

Valuation

OBEBTEARXVETGTECVEMedian
NameObsidian.Baytex E.Accelera.Vermilio.Gran Tie.Cenovus . 
Mkt Cap0.42.43.41.20.129.81.8
P/S0.50.64.10.50.20.50.5
P/EBIT-1.34.6-2.74.434.77.04.5
P/E-1.611.1-2.5-5.3-1.69.5-1.6
P/CFO1.21.45.41.20.73.81.3
Total Yield-63.0%12.0%-39.6%-15.7%-63.4%12.7%-27.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%0.0%3.1%0.0%2.2%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.1%17.7%-32.0%-10.0%11.5%11.5%
D/E0.40.80.01.15.60.30.6
Net D/E0.40.8-0.71.05.20.30.6

Returns

OBEBTEARXVETGTECVEMedian
NameObsidian.Baytex E.Accelera.Vermilio.Gran Tie.Cenovus . 
1M Rtn-7.7%-2.1%25.8%-7.9%-12.1%-5.8%-6.8%
3M Rtn-9.5%30.3%-0.1%10.6%-1.0%-0.8%-0.5%
6M Rtn-4.9%52.2%55.3%3.6%-32.8%16.1%9.9%
12M Rtn10.9%39.1%55.3%-3.1%-41.0%20.2%15.5%
3Y Rtn-13.0%529.5%55.3%-47.5%-58.7%-0.6%-6.8%
1M Excs Rtn-13.0%-5.0%19.0%-13.6%-16.4%-10.6%-11.8%
3M Excs Rtn-14.0%26.5%-0.5%5.7%-8.4%-3.5%-2.0%
6M Excs Rtn-12.9%54.2%41.9%-4.9%-43.2%8.6%1.9%
12M Excs Rtn-3.8%23.1%42.4%-17.5%-54.5%4.4%0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.2%458.4%-15.7%-121.0%-129.7%-71.8%-81.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production751920498286420
Total751920498286420


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,467,873
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.9%
Average Daily Volume325,676
Days-to-Cover Short Interest16.79
Basic Shares Quantity67,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103020256-K 9/30/2025
630202573020256-K 6/30/2025
331202550720256-K 3/31/2025
12312024225202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024103120246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450220246-K 3/31/2024
12312023222202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110920236-K 9/30/2023
630202380220236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022223202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110820226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202250420226-K 3/31/2022
12312021224202240-F 12/31/2021