Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 9.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 7.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 9.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 7.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CVE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the positive movement in Cenovus Energy's stock: 1. Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Operational Performance.

Cenovus Energy reported record Oil Sands production in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 628,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) and an annual record of 610,700 BOE/d. Overall upstream production increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter, and downstream operating performance improved with an aggregate utilization rate of 93%. These strong operational metrics demonstrated the company's efficiency and reliability.

2. Achievement of Net Debt Target and Enhanced Shareholder Returns.

The company successfully reached its net debt target of $4.0 billion in July 2024. This financial milestone allowed Cenovus to commit to returning 100% of its excess free funds flow to shareholders starting in the third quarter of 2024. In Q3 2024, Cenovus returned $1.1 billion to shareholders, including $732 million in share purchases, and an additional $706 million in Q4 2024 through dividends and share purchases, signaling a strong commitment to shareholder value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CVE Return-40%105%61%-12%-6%19%96%
Peers Return-13%40%38%-7%10%15%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVE Win Rate50%67%58%42%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate33%50%50%38%47%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVE Max Drawdown-84%-5%0%-22%-11%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-3%-1%-15%-7%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, IMO, DEC, RRI, CVX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCVES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-84.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven554.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven566 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1137 days120 days

Compare to XOM, IMO, DEC, RRI, CVX


In The Past

Cenovus Energy's stock fell -40.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -40.9% loss requires a 69.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cenovus Energy (CVE)

Better Bets than Cenovus Energy (CVE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CVE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cenovus Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVEXOMIMODECRRICVXMedian
NameCenovus .Exxon Mo.Imperial.Diversif.Roosevel.Chevron  
Mkt Price18.22117.8096.2015.19-151.5996.20
Mkt Cap32.6510.248.5--293.9171.2
Rev LTM56,602329,38546,244--186,979121,790
Op Inc LTM4,32837,5725,030--15,06710,048
FCF LTM2,82429,1234,783--15,42410,104
FCF 3Y Avg3,74335,9583,928--18,18511,056
CFO LTM7,84954,3016,579--31,84519,847
CFO 3Y Avg8,47158,9805,767--34,25021,360

Growth & Margins

CVEXOMIMODECRRICVXMedian
NameCenovus .Exxon Mo.Imperial.Diversif.Roosevel.Chevron  
Rev Chg LTM-4.8%-3.3%-6.2%---3.6%-4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.6%-2.1%-5.6%---6.2%-5.9%
Rev Chg Q-4.5%-11.7%-7.5%---1.5%-6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%-3.1%-2.0%---0.4%-1.5%
Op Mgn LTM7.6%11.4%10.9%--8.1%9.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.0%13.4%12.4%--11.2%11.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%-0.2%-1.7%---0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM13.9%16.5%14.2%--17.0%15.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.8%17.1%12.0%--17.6%15.9%
FCF/Rev LTM5.0%8.8%10.3%--8.2%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%10.4%8.2%--9.3%8.7%

Valuation

CVEXOMIMODECRRICVXMedian
NameCenovus .Exxon Mo.Imperial.Diversif.Roosevel.Chevron  
Mkt Cap32.6510.248.5--293.9171.2
P/S0.51.41.0--1.61.2
P/EBIT7.110.28.8--13.59.5
P/E9.715.111.4--23.613.2
P/CFO3.98.66.9--9.57.8
Total Yield12.5%10.3%11.7%--8.3%11.0%
Dividend Yield2.2%3.7%3.0%--4.1%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.5%7.8%9.9%--6.2%8.8%
D/E0.30.10.1--0.10.1
Net D/E0.30.10.0--0.10.1

Returns

CVEXOMIMODECRRICVXMedian
NameCenovus .Exxon Mo.Imperial.Diversif.Roosevel.Chevron  
1M Rtn6.9%4.5%7.6%---0.5%5.7%
3M Rtn11.4%6.2%10.4%---3.0%8.3%
6M Rtn43.0%17.2%34.7%--12.8%26.0%
12M Rtn18.9%3.8%35.6%---2.0%11.3%
3Y Rtn-0.1%18.9%86.2%---5.0%9.4%
1M Excs Rtn7.0%4.5%7.7%---0.5%5.7%
3M Excs Rtn6.2%0.4%5.2%---8.1%2.8%
6M Excs Rtn28.3%2.5%20.0%---1.9%11.2%
12M Excs Rtn6.3%-10.0%20.8%---15.6%-1.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-71.0%-53.9%13.5%---76.4%-62.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Oil Sands31,67332,24831,07024,64126,203
United States (US) Refining8,6608,3247,7774,363 
Corporate and Eliminations4,6826,3764,7501,2101,068
Offshore3,5113,3393,5970 
Canadian Refining2,9603,1722,918578 
Conventional2,4292,4103,0261,9782,754
Retail  9660 
Refining and Marketing    5,688
Total53,91555,86954,10432,77035,713


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity41,705,461
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.0%
Average Daily Volume10,051,314
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.15
Basic Shares Quantity1,788,901,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103120256-K 9/30/2025
630202573120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024220202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024103120246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450120246-K 3/31/2024
12312023215202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202372720236-K 6/30/2023
331202342620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022216202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110220226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242720226-K 3/31/2022
12312021208202240-F 12/31/2021