Tearsheet

Empire Petroleum (EP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.18 | Market Cap: $108.3 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Empire Petroleum (EP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.18
Market Cap: $108.3 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Oil Production, and Onshore Natural Gas Production.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 50.13
5   Key risks
EP key risks include [1] consistent operating losses that make profitability dependent on exceptionally high oil prices and [2] high operating costs that result in an inability to consistently cover its interest expenses.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Oil Production, and Onshore Natural Gas Production.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 50.13
7 Key risks
EP key risks include [1] consistent operating losses that make profitability dependent on exceptionally high oil prices and [2] high operating costs that result in an inability to consistently cover its interest expenses.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Rights Offering and Dilution: Empire Petroleum's rights offering, which was fully subscribed by August 21, 2025, and expired on August 20, 2025, aimed to raise up to $5.0 million by issuing new shares and warrants. This event, occurring just before the specified period, likely contributed to stock dilution and put downward pressure on the share price, particularly with a common stock subscription price of $5.30 per whole share.

2. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: On November 17, 2025, Empire Petroleum reported a net loss of $3.8 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $0.1 million for the third quarter of 2025. These unfavorable financial outcomes likely eroded investor confidence and contributed to the stock's decline.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EP Return-41%0%12200%-11%-31%-57%1818%
Peers Return-46%176%58%-15%-5%-34%26%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EP Win Rate17%0%33%33%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate40%57%62%37%40%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EP Max Drawdown-41%0%0%-53%-62%-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-83%-13%-6%-33%-18%-52% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VTLE, PR, HPK, AMPY, REI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven333.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven100.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven706 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-68.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven215.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven818 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1600.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven410 days1,480 days

Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY


In The Past

Empire Petroleum's stock fell -76.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -76.9% loss requires a 333.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Empire Petroleum (EP)

Better Bets than Empire Petroleum (EP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Empire Petroleum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EPVTLEPRHPKAMPYREIMedian
NameEmpire P.Vital En.Permian .HighPeak.Amplify .Ring Ene. 
Mkt Price3.1517.9214.364.434.690.854.56
Mkt Cap0.10.710.20.60.20.20.4
Rev LTM371,8975,192882276324603
Op Inc LTM-163842,029246587167
FCF LTM-19124707-15-23-29-17
FCF 3Y Avg-29-437413-1452620-4
CFO LTM-101,1473,57555875153356
CFO 3Y Avg-19372,95268990187438

Growth & Margins

EPVTLEPRHPKAMPYREIMedian
NameEmpire P.Vital En.Permian .HighPeak.Amplify .Ring Ene. 
Rev Chg LTM-15.1%1.9%7.6%-22.4%-9.5%-15.4%-12.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.0%0.4%48.7%21.0%-14.7%2.7%1.5%
Rev Chg Q-13.9%-8.4%8.7%-30.5%-5.0%-11.9%-10.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.9%-2.0%2.1%-8.6%-1.2%-3.2%-2.6%
Op Mgn LTM-43.9%20.2%39.1%28.0%1.8%27.0%23.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-31.6%28.7%44.1%34.4%13.7%36.0%31.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-1.2%-0.7%-1.8%-3.2%-2.7%-1.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-26.7%60.5%68.9%63.3%27.2%47.4%53.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.8%53.3%69.2%66.7%29.5%52.5%52.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-49.8%6.5%13.6%-1.7%-8.5%-8.9%-5.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-69.2%-25.7%9.8%-13.9%7.4%5.0%-4.4%

Valuation

EPVTLEPRHPKAMPYREIMedian
NameEmpire P.Vital En.Permian .HighPeak.Amplify .Ring Ene. 
Mkt Cap0.10.710.20.60.20.20.4
P/S2.90.31.81.00.80.70.9
P/EBIT-6.7-0.65.84.1-8.49.81.7
P/E-6.2-0.511.216.6-7.6-13.9-3.3
P/CFO-10.80.62.61.62.81.51.5
Total Yield-16.1%-205.9%13.6%8.6%-13.1%-7.2%-10.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%4.7%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-16.7%-40.8%5.6%-6.9%8.1%4.2%-1.4%
D/E0.23.70.41.40.61.91.0
Net D/E0.13.60.41.20.61.90.9

Returns

EPVTLEPRHPKAMPYREIMedian
NameEmpire P.Vital En.Permian .HighPeak.Amplify .Ring Ene. 
1M Rtn7.1%6.5%6.1%-19.8%-11.3%-9.1%-1.5%
3M Rtn-22.2%9.4%7.0%-37.9%6.6%-18.6%-6.0%
6M Rtn-45.2%-15.1%-0.1%-61.5%26.4%-0.8%-7.9%
12M Rtn-50.2%-39.2%7.3%-68.3%-23.4%-35.2%-37.2%
3Y Rtn-71.4%-65.3%83.4%-77.1%-36.1%-61.3%-63.3%
1M Excs Rtn6.4%5.8%5.4%-20.6%-12.1%-9.8%-2.2%
3M Excs Rtn-24.7%8.2%5.5%-38.2%3.3%-19.9%-8.3%
6M Excs Rtn-57.6%-27.5%-12.4%-73.9%14.0%-13.2%-20.3%
12M Excs Rtn-63.6%-54.2%-8.9%-79.6%-36.3%-49.6%-51.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-141.4%-134.2%10.9%-145.7%-102.4%-131.7%-133.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Oil Sales3745225 
Natural gas revenues2520 
Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) revenues2430 
Other0000 
Gain (Loss) on Derivatives-0-0-120
Oil and gas sales    6
Total40532786


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,440,777
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.8%
Average Daily Volume28,740
Days-to-Cover Short Interest50.13
Basic Shares Quantity34,043,173
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/17/20259.2%3.4% 
8/14/20257.4%0.8%-12.9%
3/28/20254.7%-12.3%-18.2%
11/15/2024-5.0%-2.7%10.8%
8/15/202413.4%13.8%8.9%
5/16/2024-3.0%5.4%-12.7%
2/23/20241.9%-2.4%-12.2%
11/13/202322.8%9.1%26.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1183
# Negative2510
Median Positive6.8%5.5%10.8%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.5%-12.9%
Max Positive22.8%13.8%26.6%
Max Negative-5.0%-12.3%-23.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023328202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021