Tearsheet

Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.09 | Market Cap: $145.3 Mil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.09
Market Cap: $145.3 Mil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -22%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.32
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.32
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -22%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KGEI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) experienced a significant stock price decline of approximately 27.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Kolibri Global Energy reported its Third Quarter 2025 earnings on November 12, 2025, missing both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.10 against an expected $0.12, and revenue of $15.19 million compared to a forecasted $15.62 million, leading to a stock drop of 4.58% in pre-market trading.

2. Downward Revision of 2025 Guidance: On October 6, 2025, Kolibri Global Energy updated its 2025 guidance, revising it lower. This revision was attributed to lower-than-expected oil prices and delays in production from new wells. The updated guidance also indicated higher annual capital expenditures, projected between US$55 million and US$58 million, and increased net debt forecasts of US$46 million to US$48 million.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KGEI Return-54%62%4866%27%42%-25%4881%
Peers Return-39%91%65%8%-3%-3%93%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KGEI Win Rate33%58%67%50%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate37%70%58%57%48%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KGEI Max Drawdown-76%0%-1%-8%-23%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-73%-1%0%-14%-12%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKGEIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven96.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-77.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven346.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven346 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-88.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven753.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven905 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven411.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven168 days1480 days

Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY


In The Past

Kolibri Global Energy's stock fell -49.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -49.1% loss requires a 96.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI)

Better Bets than Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KGEI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kolibri Global Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KGEICOPCNQEOGFANGOXYMedian
NameKolibri .ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Occident. 
Mkt Price4.0991.8134.13111.51158.3842.4567.13
Mkt Cap0.1114.371.360.345.741.853.0
Rev LTM7359,78844,52122,57915,28427,15024,864
Op Inc LTM2712,5499,0227,5395,5845,4576,562
FCF LTM-27,0888,1243,891-1,0944,7764,334
FCF 3Y Avg-78,9108,2845,167-1,9665,7455,456
CFO LTM4419,93514,77010,1958,75612,14611,170
CFO 3Y Avg3820,72013,87411,4536,73012,36611,909

Growth & Margins

KGEICOPCNQEOGFANGOXYMedian
NameKolibri .ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Occident. 
Rev Chg LTM5.7%8.2%8.3%-5.0%60.1%0.1%7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg32.0%-6.6%-2.4%-7.6%20.8%-6.8%-4.5%
Rev Chg Q-22.0%15.3%6.4%-2.3%48.2%-5.9%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.0%3.4%1.5%-0.6%9.1%-1.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM36.6%21.0%20.3%33.4%36.5%20.1%27.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg37.8%24.1%21.9%36.4%46.8%23.4%30.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%-1.0%-4.3%-0.8%-1.3%-2.0%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM60.4%33.3%33.2%45.2%57.3%44.7%44.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg56.5%35.6%32.8%49.0%62.5%43.1%46.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%11.9%18.2%17.2%-7.2%17.6%14.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-11.2%15.3%19.6%22.1%-18.6%19.7%17.5%

Valuation

KGEICOPCNQEOGFANGOXYMedian
NameKolibri .ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Occident. 
Mkt Cap0.1114.371.360.345.741.853.0
P/S3.32.01.52.72.71.52.3
P/EBIT8.58.17.68.36.98.88.2
P/E12.613.310.011.09.917.211.8
P/CFO5.55.94.55.94.73.45.1
Total Yield7.9%10.8%17.1%12.6%12.9%5.8%11.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.3%7.1%3.5%2.7%0.0%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.8%6.9%12.0%7.6%-5.2%11.6%7.3%
D/E0.10.20.30.10.40.60.2
Net D/E0.10.10.30.10.40.50.2

Returns

KGEICOPCNQEOGFANGOXYMedian
NameKolibri .ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb.Occident. 
1M Rtn-3.5%4.6%6.8%5.6%12.9%3.7%5.1%
3M Rtn-24.3%-2.1%10.7%-6.6%12.1%-8.3%-4.4%
6M Rtn-40.6%8.7%13.4%2.5%15.3%2.4%5.6%
12M Rtn-4.7%-10.4%5.1%-12.5%-7.3%-14.0%-8.9%
3Y Rtn44.0%-16.5%31.6%-9.3%23.4%-34.8%7.1%
1M Excs Rtn-3.5%4.7%6.8%5.6%12.9%3.8%5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-29.3%-8.6%4.9%-12.8%6.4%-14.3%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-55.4%-6.0%-1.4%-12.2%0.5%-12.3%-9.1%
12M Excs Rtn-17.3%-25.9%-7.2%-27.0%-21.8%-27.9%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn2.7%-90.4%-39.2%-80.6%-47.9%-107.7%-64.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity915,487
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.0%
Average Daily Volume80,901
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.32
Basic Shares Quantity35,518,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581120256-K 6/30/2025
331202551420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024326202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
331202451320246-K 3/31/2024
12312023503202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
930200711142008Quarterly 9/30/2007