Badger Meter (BMI)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $157.5 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Badger Meter (BMI)
Market Price (11/3/2026): $157.5Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.04, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2% Key risksBMI key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the unpredictable spending of public utilities and [2] intense competition within the smart water solutions market. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.04, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.2% |
| Key risksBMI key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the unpredictable spending of public utilities and [2] intense competition within the smart water solutions market. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Badger Meter (BMI) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings and Margin Expansion Exceeded Expectations.
Badger Meter reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.24 for the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, surpassing consensus estimates of $1.23. While total sales of $235.9 million were slightly below analyst forecasts, they represented a 6% sequential improvement from fiscal Q2 2026. The core driver was robust profitability, with operating earnings increasing 4% year-over-year to $47.7 million, and the operating profit margin expanding to 20.2% from 19.6% in the prior-year quarter. Gross margin also climbed 120 basis points to 41.9%, attributed to a favorable product mix shift towards ultrasonic meters and growing software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue. This strong financial performance led to a 12% surge in shares on the day of the earnings release.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Dividends and Share Repurchases.
Badger Meter demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by raising its annual dividend by 10% to $1.76 per share, marking the 34th consecutive year of dividend growth. Additionally, the company repurchased approximately $55.5 million of its common stock during fiscal Q3 2026. Year-to-date through September 2026, total share buybacks amounted to $119 million.
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Badger Meter (BMI) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings and Margin Expansion Exceeded Expectations.
Badger Meter reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.24 for the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, surpassing consensus estimates of $1.23. While total sales of $235.9 million were slightly below analyst forecasts, they represented a 6% sequential improvement from fiscal Q2 2026. The core driver was robust profitability, with operating earnings increasing 4% year-over-year to $47.7 million, and the operating profit margin expanding to 20.2% from 19.6% in the prior-year quarter. Gross margin also climbed 120 basis points to 41.9%, attributed to a favorable product mix shift towards ultrasonic meters and growing software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue. This strong financial performance led to a 12% surge in shares on the day of the earnings release.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Dividends and Share Repurchases.
Badger Meter demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by raising its annual dividend by 10% to $1.76 per share, marking the 34th consecutive year of dividend growth. Additionally, the company repurchased approximately $55.5 million of its common stock during fiscal Q3 2026. Year-to-date through September 2026, total share buybacks amounted to $119 million.
3. Multiple Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets Indicated Positive Market Sentiment.
Several financial analysts issued positive revisions for Badger Meter. Argus Research upgraded the stock from a "Hold" to a "Buy" rating on October 27, 2026, setting a new price target of $170.00, suggesting an 8.92% potential upside from the prior close. RBC Capital also increased its price target to $187.00 per share from $162.00 on October 23, 2026. Furthermore, Zacks Research upgraded Badger Meter from a "strong sell" to a "hold" on July 6, 2026, and then to a "Buy" (Zacks Rank #2) on October 26, 2026, citing a positive earnings outlook. The average analyst rating is now "Buy" with a consensus price target of $165.75.
4. Strategic Shift Towards Higher-Margin Smart Water Solutions and New Product Launch.
The company's strategic focus on the digital transformation of the water sector, particularly through higher-margin smart water solutions, was highlighted as a key growth driver. This includes the increasing adoption of ultrasonic meters and software-as-a-service revenue streams. Badger Meter further solidified this strategy with the launch of OneNetwork, a new real-time network monitoring and analysis software platform within its BlueEdge portfolio. This reinforces the company's position as a "trusted pure-play smart water solutions provider."
5. Favorable Broader Industrial and Water Utility Sector Trends.
The general industrial sector experienced strengthening demand in fiscal Q3 2026, with net absorption reaching multi-year highs and vacancy rates easing. This positive macroeconomic backdrop for industrial machinery and technology companies provided a tailwind. Within the water sector, significant trends such as PFAS treatment transitioning from regulatory risk to funded capital programs, and the emerging opportunity in data center water, are creating a supportive market environment for water technology providers. This is further supported by solid Q3 2026 results from other water utilities, indicating a healthy operational landscape.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.7% change in BMI stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.92 | 157.69 | 17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 881 | 881 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 14.4% | 0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.9 | 35.8 | 15.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMI | 17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | -0.6% | -12.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.3% change in BMI stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.12 | 157.69 | 31.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 897 | 881 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.6% | 14.4% | -1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 35.8 | 33.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMI | 31.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 15.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.4% | 3.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.6% change in BMI stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.39 | 157.69 | -11.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 901 | 881 | -2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 14.4% | -6.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.8 | 35.8 | -5.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMI | -11.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 16.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 16.3% | 6.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.7% change in BMI stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 135.15 | 157.69 | 16.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 668 | 881 | 31.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.8% | 14.4% | 12.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.4 | 35.8 | -22.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 29 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMI | 16.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 116.2% | 27.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BMI Return | 14% | 3% | 43% | 38% | -17% | -9% | 76% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -24% | 40% | 29% | 11% | -4% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BMI Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 83% | 67% | 33% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 35% | 58% | 57% | 58% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BMI Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -20% | -13% | -34% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -39% | -22% | -16% | -24% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ITRI, XYL, MWA, WTS, PNR. See BMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Badger Meter's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 199 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 778 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Badger Meter's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Badger Meter (BMI)
Badger Meter, Inc. is a global technology company specializing in flow measurement, quality, control, and communication solutions. Its core business involves designing and manufacturing products that accurately measure and manage the flow of various liquids and gases, primarily focusing on water and other industrial fluids. The company provides essential tools and systems that enable efficient resource management and data collection across diverse sectors.
The company's offerings can be broadly categorized into two main areas. First, it supplies municipal water utilities with a comprehensive suite of mechanical and static water meters, along with advanced radio and software technologies for automatic meter reading (AMR) and fixed network applications, such as ORION Cellular. This is complemented by BEACON advanced metering analytics, a cloud-based software suite that provides utilities with data insights, alerts, and consumer engagement tools. Second, Badger Meter manufactures a range of flow instrumentation products, including meters, valves, and sensing instruments, designed to measure and control fluids like water, air, steam, oil, and other liquids and gases.
Badger Meter primarily serves two distinct customer bases. Municipal water utilities worldwide represent a significant market for its water metering and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) solutions, helping them manage water distribution and billing more effectively. Additionally, the company provides its flow instrumentation products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for integration into their own systems, as well as to various industrial sectors including water/wastewater treatment, heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), and corporate sustainability markets. The company sells directly and through resellers and representatives across the United States and internationally.
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- They are like Nest (Google), but for cities and their water grids, providing smart meters and data tools to manage water usage.
- Think of them as Honeywell for the precise measurement and control of fluids (like water, oil, and steam) in industrial pipes and systems.
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- Water Meters: Mechanical and static devices designed for municipal water utilities to measure water consumption.
- Flow Instrumentation Products: A range of meters, valves, and sensing instruments used to measure and control the flow of various fluids (water, air, steam, oil, and gases) in pipelines for industrial and commercial applications.
- ORION Communication Solutions: A suite of radio-based and cellular technologies providing various automatic meter reading solutions, including migratable, traditional fixed network, and infrastructure-free options.
- BEACON Advanced Metering Analytics (AMA): A secure cloud-hosted software suite that establishes alerts for specific conditions and provides tools for end water customers to view and manage their water usage activity.
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Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) primarily sells its products and solutions to other organizations and companies, rather than directly to individual consumers. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Municipal Water Utilities: These are key customers for Badger Meter's mechanical and static water meters, along with related radio, software technologies, and services.
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): Badger Meter supplies flow instrumentation products to OEMs, who integrate these as primary flow measurement devices within their own products or systems.
- Industrial Customers: The company serves various industrial sectors, including those involved in water/wastewater treatment, heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), and corporate sustainability markets, for their flow measurement and control needs.
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Kenneth C. Bockhorst, Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Ken Bockhorst joined Badger Meter in October 2017 as Chief Operating Officer, was promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2019, and became Chairman of the Board on January 1, 2020. He has over 20 years of experience in global operations management. Prior to Badger Meter, he spent six years at Actuant Corporation (now Enerpac Tool Group), serving most recently as Executive Vice President of the energy segment. His career also includes product management and operational leadership roles at IDEX Corporation (from 2007-2011) and Eaton Corporation (from 1991-2007). At Actuant, he developed and executed strategic plans that included major portfolio enhancements with both acquisition and divestiture activities. He currently serves as Lead Independent Director of Mirion Technologies, Inc.
Daniel R. Weltzien, Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Daniel R. Weltzien was appointed Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Badger Meter, effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as Vice President – Controller for seven years at Badger Meter. Before joining Badger Meter in 2019, he spent eight years in business unit finance and internal audit roles at Actuant Corporation. Earlier in his career, he gained eight years of public accounting experience at Deloitte & Touche LLP. Mr. Weltzien possesses nearly 25 years of progressive experience in corporate finance, including extensive work at both public companies and within public accounting.
Robert A. Wrocklage, Executive Vice President – North America Municipal Utility
Effective January 1, 2026, Robert A. Wrocklage was elevated to Executive Vice President – North America Municipal Utility. Prior to this, he served seven years as Senior Vice President – Chief Financial Officer at Badger Meter, having been promoted to that role effective January 1, 2019, after joining in August 2018 as VP-Finance. Before joining Badger Meter, he spent nearly a decade at Actuant Corporation (now Enerpac Tool Group), most recently as Corporate Controller and Principal Accounting Officer. His experience at Actuant also includes various corporate and business unit financial leadership roles and three years as Internal Audit Leader. Earlier in his career, he worked for seven years in public accounting at Deloitte & Touche LLP.
Matthew L. Stuyvenberg, Executive Vice President – SaaS, Global Commercial and International Utility
Matthew L. Stuyvenberg was named Executive Vice President – SaaS, Global Commercial and International Utility in January 2026, having served as Vice President – SaaS, Global Commercial and International Utility since September 2024. He is responsible for leading the global software and flow instrumentation business and advancing international municipal water opportunities. Mr. Stuyvenberg joined Badger Meter in 2007 as a Mechanical Engineer of Applied Research and has since held roles of increasing responsibility, including Supervisor - CAE, Manager - Mechanical Engineering, Director of Utility Engineering, Senior Director of Water Quality, and Vice President - Software and Water Quality.
Kimberly K. Stoll, Vice President – Customer Support and General Manager – SmartCover
Kimberly K. Stoll was promoted to Vice President – Customer Support and General Manager – SmartCover, effective January 1, 2026. In this role, she oversees North America-based customer care, sales operations, customer success resources, and holds overall responsibility for SmartCover. Ms. Stoll joined Badger Meter in 2008 as director of utility marketing, was promoted to Vice President – Marketing in 2009, and was named Vice President – Sales and Marketing in 2012. Before joining Badger Meter, she worked for Rockwell Automation in various human resources and marketing capacities.
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Key Risks to Badger Meter (BMI)
- Technological Disruption and Evolution of Smart Infrastructure: Badger Meter's core business relies on flow measurement, communication technologies, and software solutions for water utilities and industrial applications. A significant risk is the rapid evolution of smart city infrastructure and advanced Internet of Things (IoT) solutions, which could introduce disruptive technologies or integrated platforms that fundamentally alter how water and other fluid consumption are measured and managed. Failure to continuously innovate and adapt to these advancements, or the emergence of superior, more cost-effective solutions from competitors or new market entrants, could diminish demand for their traditional metering and communication products.
- Intense Competition in Global Flow Measurement Markets: The company operates in a competitive global market for flow measurement, control, and communication solutions. This includes competition from established players, specialized niche providers, and potentially larger industrial conglomerates across municipal, industrial, and OEM sectors. Competitive pressures can manifest in pricing, technological innovation, product features, and service capabilities, potentially impacting Badger Meter's market share, revenue growth, and profit margins.
- Reliance on Municipal Water Utility Spending and Infrastructure Investment: A substantial portion of Badger Meter's revenue is derived from municipal water utilities. This market is sensitive to public sector budgeting cycles, government infrastructure spending initiatives, regulatory changes, and economic conditions. Delays in municipal capital projects, reduced funding for water infrastructure upgrades, or shifts in public policy priorities could directly impact demand for the company's water meters, communication technologies, and related services.
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Addressable Markets for Badger Meter's Main Products and Services:
Smart Water Metering and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)
The smart water metering market, which includes Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), represents a significant addressable market for Badger Meter.- The global smart water metering market was valued at approximately USD 6.8 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow, with estimates suggesting it could reach USD 11.0 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2025 to 2032. Other projections indicate a market size of USD 9.04 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 11.9% from 2024 to 2030, and USD 16.54 billion by 2035 with an 11.3% CAGR during 2026-2035.
- The global AMI water meter market, a subset of smart water metering, was valued at USD 1.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a robust CAGR of 30% from 2025 to 2034, reaching an estimated USD 22.3 billion by 2034. Another source projects the global AMI water meter market to be valued at USD 2.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.7 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 30.0%.
- In North America, the AMI water meter market was valued at USD 1.73 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.71 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.12% from 2025. North America accounted for 46% of the global smart water meters market share in 2024. Specifically, the U.S. AMI market is projected to exceed USD 63.5 billion by 2034, and is expected to grow from USD 23.23 billion in 2025 to USD 41.84 billion by 2031 with a 10.33% CAGR.
Flow Instrumentation Products
Badger Meter also participates in the broader flow instrumentation market, which includes flow meters and intelligent flow control meters.- The global flow meter market was valued at USD 10.64 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.17 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global flow meter market at USD 11.44 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 19.46 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 6.08%. Another source values it at USD 9.9 billion in 2025 and projects it to reach USD 20.2 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.4% during the forecast period of 2026-2035.
- The global intelligent flow control meter market was valued at USD 3.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 6.12 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period.
- The global flow sensors market, a related category, was valued at USD 9.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 15.97 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.15% over the period 2025-2032.
- North America holds a significant share in the flow meter market, accounting for approximately 34%. The U.S. flow sensors market alone was valued at USD 2.36 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.28 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.30%.
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Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increasing Adoption of Smart Water Solutions and Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI): Badger Meter anticipates continued growth as municipal water utilities transition to advanced metering infrastructure, particularly its cellular AMI solutions. The company notes that only approximately 40% of connection points have currently switched to AMI, indicating a significant runway for upgrades as customers cycle through natural meter replacements. This adoption fuels sales of associated meters, ORION cellular endpoints, and BEACON software.
- Growth in Software and Digital Solutions: The company is strategically shifting towards higher-margin software and service offerings. Its Software as a Service (SaaS) revenue, including BEACON advanced metering analytics and EyeOnWater, is a strong growth area. These digital solutions provide actionable data for utilities and homeowners, and Badger Meter continues to innovate by integrating real-time water quality monitoring, high-frequency pressure, and network monitoring capabilities into its platform.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Expansion: Complementary acquisitions are a key component of Badger Meter's growth strategy. A notable example is the acquisition of SmartCover Systems in January 2025, which has contributed to revenue and expanded the company's capabilities in real-time monitoring of water collection systems. This acquisition is anticipated to be earnings accretive in 2026.
- Major Project Wins and Market Expansion: Significant project awards, such as the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) project for the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), are expected to drive substantial revenue. This particular project covers 1.6 million service connections, with meaningful revenue contributions projected for the second half of 2026. Additionally, Badger Meter aims to expand its global presence by offering customized solutions in international markets like Europe and the Middle East, and by capturing niches in flow instrumentation for smart-building applications, climate control equipment, and wastewater treatment facilities.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Badger Meter (BMI)
Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, Badger Meter's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $75 million, bringing the total authorization to $150 million through November 30, 2028. This built upon a $75 million authorization approved in November 2025.
- During the first quarter of 2026, the company repurchased 205,000 shares for approximately $30.3 million, leaving $119.7 million available under the expanded program.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Badger Meter opportunistically repurchased $15 million in shares.
Share Issuance
- In March 2026, an EVP received a grant of 1,312 restricted common shares under the 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan, which vest ratably over three years. To cover tax obligations, 210 shares were withheld and disposed of.
- In February 2026, a VP received 1,193 shares from earned Performance Stock Units (PSUs) for the 2023–2025 performance period, vesting on March 3, 2026.
- In March 2026, a VP of Human Resources received a grant of 369 restricted shares under the 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan, vesting ratably over three years, with 46 shares disposed of for tax obligations.
Outbound Investments
- On January 31, 2025, Badger Meter acquired SmartCover Systems from XPV Water Partners for $185 million, funded with available cash. This acquisition expanded Badger Meter's BlueEdge suite to include real-time monitoring of utility water collection systems, focusing on sewer line and lift station monitoring.
- In 2023, Badger Meter acquired Syrinix Ltd., a provider of high-frequency pressure monitoring and leak detection solutions, for $17.1 million (or $18.1 million).
- In January 2021, the company acquired Analytical Technology for $44 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Badger Meter's capital allocation priorities include investments in organic growth, dividends, and attractive acquisitions.
- Expenditures for research and development activities were $21.6 million in 2025, $19.2 million in 2024, and $19.0 million in 2023, primarily focused on developing new products, improving existing products, and enhancing manufacturing processes.
- The company invested capital in 2023 to extend manufacturing output, add automation, and acquire test equipment.
Peer Outperformance in Electronic Equipment & Instruments
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI | Badger Meter | 10.0% | 35.8x | -11.6% | 13.1% | 59.1% | — |
| PI | Impinj | 7.4% | -599.5x | -8.0% | 170.8% | 138.8% | +80pp |
| OSIS | OSI Systems | 12.2% | 19.9x | -28.6% | 83.4% | 114.4% | +55pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 18.4% | 110.0% | 198.4% | FLEX 551% · TTMI 451% · JBL 333% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 43.9% | 68.0% | 73.2% | AVT 146% · SNX 117% · CNXN 94% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 37.3% | 61.0% | 45.7% | AXTI 464% · LRCX 317% · KLAC 313% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | -0.6% | 66.1% | 34.6% | CLS 2294% · BELFA 1195% · APH 329% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 2.5% | 73.5% | 32.6% | AAOI 695% · LITE 689% · ANET 434% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 0.0% | 44.4% | 7.7% | MU 1107% · NVDA 669% · AVGO 555% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments ← | 27 | -4.1% | 24.7% | 3.5% | PI 139% · OSIS 114% · MIR 70% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 1.5% | 45.7% | -10.1% | GDDY 73% · VRSN 39% · DOCN -3% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 21 | -3.4% | 85.5% | -12.0% | WDC 727% · SMCI 721% · DELL 693% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -24.8% | -3.5% | -25.0% | APLD 269% · IBM 152% · ADEA 142% |
| Application Software | 125 | -15.8% | -9.8% | -54.8% | PLTR 588% · FROG 159% · AGYS 148% |
| Systems Software | 70 | -12.3% | 22.2% | -56.2% | CRWD 261% · ZETA 243% · CVLT 145% |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,499 |
| Op Inc LTM | 420 |
| FCF LTM | 358 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 310 |
| CFO LTM | 396 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 344 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 19.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $157.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $133.19 | $137.90 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 18.4% | 14.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.7% | 48.1% |
| Downside Capture | -3.75 | 100.81 |
| Upside Capture | 76.97 | 73.31 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -2.5% | 16.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.28 | -0.34 | 0.17 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | -0.71 | -0.09 | 0.28 | -0.56 | 0.10 | 0.94 |
| Down Beta | -0.92 | -1.06 | -0.97 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| Up Capture | 18% | 19% | 67% | 130% | 63% | 71% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 60 | 121 | 390 |
| Down Capture | -285% | -58% | 13% | 86% | 106% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 66 | 130 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI | -12.0% | 48.1% | -0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.5% | 27.2% | 0.53 | 6.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 16.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | -5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 15.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 4.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI | 9.6% | 35.7% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.9% | 26.1% | 0.61 | 37.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 44.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 20.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI | 18.5% | 34.6% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.3% | 25.2% | 0.84 | 45.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 53.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/22/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/26/2024 | -5.6% | -4.6% | 3.2% |
| 10/19/2023 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 9.9% |
| 7/20/2023 | 7.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% |
| 4/20/2023 | 10.7% | 8.0% | 16.7% |
| 1/27/2023 | -3.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 10/19/2022 | 3.5% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| 7/20/2022 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 24.1% |
| 4/19/2022 | -7.0% | -10.6% | -15.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -4.6% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.9% | 16.3% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -10.6% | -15.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/26/2024 | -5.6% | -4.6% | 3.2% |
| 10/19/2023 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 9.9% |
| 7/20/2023 | 7.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% |
| 4/20/2023 | 10.7% | 8.0% | 16.7% |
| 1/27/2023 | -3.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 10/19/2022 | 3.5% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| 7/20/2022 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 24.1% |
| 4/19/2022 | -7.0% | -10.6% | -15.6% |
| 1/28/2022 | 9.5% | 16.3% | 15.5% |
| 10/15/2021 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| 7/20/2021 | 6.7% | 5.9% | 9.6% |
| 4/20/2021 | -6.3% | -0.4% | -4.0% |
| 1/29/2021 | -5.1% | 2.5% | 9.5% |
| 10/16/2020 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -4.6% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.9% | 16.3% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -10.6% | -15.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/20/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/20/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Callahan, Edward F | VP-Engineering | Direct | Buy | 7312026 | 135.25 | 751 | 101,572 | 261,977 | Form |
| 2 | Htwe, Richard | VP-Global Operations | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 116.13 | 1,700 | 197,421 | 882,936 | Form |
| 3 | Callahan, Edward F | VP-Engineering | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 116.30 | 858 | 99,785 | 137,932 | Form |
| 4 | Tarantino, Christina M | VP-Controller | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 113.80 | 870 | 99,006 | 204,954 | Form |
| 5 | Bockhorst, Kenneth | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 4212026 | 117.53 | 2,200 | 258,573 | 6,073,651 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Callahan, Edward F | VP-Engineering | Direct | Buy | 7312026 | 135.25 | 751 | 101,572 | 261,977 | Form |
| 2 | Htwe, Richard | VP-Global Operations | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 116.13 | 1,700 | 197,421 | 882,936 | Form |
| 3 | Callahan, Edward F | VP-Engineering | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 116.30 | 858 | 99,785 | 137,932 | Form |
| 4 | Tarantino, Christina M | VP-Controller | Direct | Buy | 4222026 | 113.80 | 870 | 99,006 | 204,954 | Form |
| 5 | Bockhorst, Kenneth | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 4212026 | 117.53 | 2,200 | 258,573 | 6,073,651 | Form |
| 6 | Stoll, Kimberly K | VP-Cust Serv & GM SmartCover | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 144.50 | 143 | 20,664 | 509,074 | Form |
| 7 | Stoll, Kimberly K | VP-Cust Serv & GM SmartCover | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 150.38 | 148 | 22,257 | 735,380 | Form |
| 8 | Bockhorst, Kenneth | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 2112026 | 152.42 | 3,300 | 502,986 | 6,098,781 | Form |
| 9 | Wrocklage, Robert | EVP-N.A. Muncipal Utility | Direct | Buy | 2102026 | 152.35 | 1,650 | 251,378 | 2,977,071 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
BMI Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Badger Meter appears to be at a revenue inflection point following a slowdown driven by project timing. Management guidance points to a return to year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, supported by a large pipeline of awarded projects. Critically, base gross margin expanded to 42.1% in the latest quarter, demonstrating pricing power and a favorable product mix.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hardware-Enabled Recurring Revenue(Number of utility connections * AMI technology adoption rate) + (Industrial & Commercial capex) Mix shift towards higher-margin SaaS and advanced ultrasonic/cellular hardware.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a trough has passed, with leading indicators pointing to a re-acceleration of higher-quality revenue.
- Management guides for year-over-year and sequential sales growth in Q4 2026.
- Q3 2026 base gross margin was 42.1%, at the top end of the company's range.
- A pipeline of awarded projects represents 2.6 to 3.6 million connections.
- The US market for AMI water meter conversion is only an estimated 40% penetrated.
- Software revenues have grown at a 28% compounded annual rate over the past 5 years.
PRIMARY RISK
The 2026 revenue weakness, which led to a guidance cut to a low single-digit decline, may reflect a broader slowdown in utility spending or competitive losses, not just temporary timing issues.
- Full-year 2026 organic revenue is now expected to be down low single digits.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue declined -2.2% year-over-year.
- Inventory grew 9% in the latest quarter while revenue grew just 0.1%.
- Management flagged 'increasing level of electronic component cost and availability pressures'.
- Operating expenses grew 4.9% Y/Y while revenue declined -2.2%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Base Revenue Growth (Year-over-Year) | -2% year-over-year for Q3 2026, excluding acquisitions. - Turning around | Management attributes the year-over-year decline to the timing of large Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) projects, describing it as a temporary pacing issue. The improving year-over-year trend and two consecutive quarters of sequential growth suggest the business is recovering from a trough. Management has guided for a return to positive year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter. |
| Base Gross Margin | 42.1% in Q3 2026, at the high end of the company's normalized range. - Accelerating | Margin strength is attributed to a favorable structural mix shift towards higher-margin products, including ultrasonic meters and software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue, along with effective price and cost management. This indicates improving revenue quality despite lower overall sales volumes. |
| Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Revenue | $126.5 million (FY 2025) | Signals the growth of high-margin, recurring revenue streams and the successful transition to a hardware-enabled software model. SaaS revenue is described as 'margin accretive'. |
| Awarded AMI Project Pipeline (Connections) | 2.6 million to 3.6 million (As of Q1 2026) | Indicates the scale of future revenue from large, multi-year Advanced Metering Infrastructure projects that have been awarded but have not yet started deployment, providing forward visibility into the growth trajectory. |
Temporary Air Pocket vs. Structural Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the Q4 growth guidance and two quarters of sequential improvement as proof the project-timing trough is over. The expanding 42.1% gross margin confirms the underlying business health is improving.
CORE TENSION
Can the guided Q4 growth inflection, backed by a large project pipeline, overcome the reality of a full-year revenue decline and rising inventory levels?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management's specific guidance for a return to year-over-year growth in Q4, after two quarters of sequential improvement, provides a clear, near-term catalyst.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the full-year guidance cut to a 'low single-digit' decline and the 9% inventory build as signs of a more persistent demand problem that forward-looking commentary cannot erase.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
fourth quarter of 2026 | Fourth Quarter Sales Growth Watch: Company expects both year-over-year and sequential quarterly base sales growth. |
1/26/2027 | Failure to Show Q4 Momentum Watch: Q4 revenue results versus guidance and any change to the 'momentum into 2027' narrative. |
1/26/2027 | Gross Margin Erosion Watch: |
January 28th, 2027 | Year-End Earnings Report Watch: Company is scheduled to report its year-end 2026 earnings. |
2/1/2027 | Peer Pentair Earnings Watch: Peer Pentair (PNR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Peer Mueller Water Earnings Watch: Peer Mueller Water Products (MWA) is scheduled to report earnings. |
February 2027 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Peer commentary on municipal utility demand, project delays, and component shortages. Weakness could suggest a broader market issue. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-22 | Q3 Results and Guidance Cut Details: Q3 sales were flat year-over-year. Management revised full-year 2026 guidance from 'flattish' to a 'low single-digit' decline, but signaled Q4 growth. The stock reacted +15.0%. | +14.7% $131.86 -> $151.24 |
2026-09-28 | OneNetwork Platform Introduced Details: The company introduced OneNetwork, a real-time network monitoring and analysis software platform for water and wastewater utilities, at the WEFTEC 2026 conference. | -2.7% $129.48 -> $125.99 |
2026-08-14 | Dividend Increased 10 Percent Details: The Board of Directors authorized a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.44 per share, marking the 34th consecutive year of annual dividend growth. | -1.3% $130.01 -> $128.29 |
2026-07-22 | Q2 Earnings and Stock Reaction Details: The stock had a -16.0% two-day reaction around the earnings call. Management reaffirmed its 'flattish' full-year outlook and noted increasing electronic component cost pressures. | -15.5% $145.41 -> $122.81 |
2026-05-01 | UDlive Acquisition Completed Details: The company completed its acquisition of UDlive, a UK-based provider of hardware-enabled software solutions for sewer line monitoring, for $94.4 million net of cash acquired. | -0.7% $120.12 -> $119.25 |
2026-04-17 | Q1 Earnings Miss and Outlook Details: Q1 sales declined 9% year-over-year. Management cited weaker-than-expected short-cycle orders and project pacing, and guided for full-year 2026 organic revenue to be 'in line with 2025'. | -25.5% $151.30 -> $112.67 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BMI trades at roughly 40% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
XYL - Xylem Inc.
Diversified Scale LeaderXylem offers significantly greater scale, with revenue 10.4 times larger than Badger Meter's, and a more diversified business across the water cycle, reducing exposure to the lumpiness of AMI projects.
ITRI - Itron Inc.
Smart Network PeerA high-quality industrial technology company transitioning to a hardware-enabled recurring revenue model, subject to lumpy project-based demand cycles.
Badger Meter is capitalizing on the secular trend of digitizing water utility infrastructure. The core business is shifting from selling standalone meters to providing an integrated ecosystem of smart devices and high-margin analytics software. This creates a more resilient, profitable model, but investors must tolerate the inherent 'unevenness' of large, multi-year utility project rollouts which can cause significant quarterly revenue volatility.
Announcements of large, multi-year AMI project wins (especially competitive conversions), accelerating SaaS revenue growth, and sustained gross margin expansion.
Loss of a major awarded project, a structural slowdown in AMI adoption by utilities, or evidence of significant, sustained price competition eroding margins.
Short-term quarterly revenue fluctuations due to the timing of large project shipments, which management repeatedly flags as normal 'unevenness'.
Repricing Catalyst
The expected ramp-up of several large, awarded AMI projects (including a named item from the call project) in the second half of 2026 is guided to drive a return to year-over-year growth and build momentum into 2027.
Badger Meter — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments Resources |
| EDN |
| Electronic Design |
| EE Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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