Mueller Water Products (MWA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.61 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Mueller Water Products (MWA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.61Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MWA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following a period including its Q4 and full fiscal year 2025 earnings reports, Mueller Water Products (MWA) experienced a stock decline, with key factors contributing to this movement.
**1. Cautious Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance.** Mueller Water Products' stock reacted negatively to its cautious fiscal year 2026 guidance, despite strong financial results for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025. The company projected modest revenue growth of 1.4-2.8% for 2026.
**2. Market Skepticism Despite Strong Performance.** Despite delivering record performance, including adjusted EPS of $0.38 and net sales of $380.8 million for Q4 2025, the market reacted with skepticism, causing the stock to pull back.
**3. Anticipated Cyclical Headwinds in Residential Construction.** The company's conservative 2026 outlook was partly driven by expected cyclical headwinds in the residential construction sector.
**4. Ongoing Tariff Impacts.** Mueller Water Products cited persistent external headwinds, including the impact of tariffs, as a factor influencing its cautious guidance for 2026.
**5. Broader Market Volatility and Investor Caution.** The stock's decline also reflected broader market volatility and a general sense of investor caution following the earnings release.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MWA Return | 5% | 18% | -24% | 36% | 58% | 10% | 125% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -19% | 64% | 66% | 13% | 161% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MWA Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 54% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MWA Max Drawdown | -41% | -4% | -29% | 0% | -6% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -15% | -38% | -2% | -6% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GGG, GHM, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MWA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 589 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1140.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5610 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GGG, GHM, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG
In The Past
Mueller Water Products's stock fell -42.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -42.3% loss requires a 73.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MWA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | MWA | Mueller Water Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 9.2% | 9.9% | -3.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312024 | MWA | Mueller Water Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 9.2% | 9.9% | -3.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mueller Water Products
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 57.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,397 |
| Op Inc LTM | 244 |
| FCF LTM | 173 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 123 |
| CFO LTM | 225 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 23.0 |
| P/E | 28.3 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 118.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 51.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11202024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
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