Tearsheet

Mueller Water Products (MWA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.61 | Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Mueller Water Products (MWA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $24.61
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MWA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Following a period including its Q4 and full fiscal year 2025 earnings reports, Mueller Water Products (MWA) experienced a stock decline, with key factors contributing to this movement. **1. Cautious Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance.** Mueller Water Products' stock reacted negatively to its cautious fiscal year 2026 guidance, despite strong financial results for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025. The company projected modest revenue growth of 1.4-2.8% for 2026.

**2. Market Skepticism Despite Strong Performance.** Despite delivering record performance, including adjusted EPS of $0.38 and net sales of $380.8 million for Q4 2025, the market reacted with skepticism, causing the stock to pull back.

**3. Anticipated Cyclical Headwinds in Residential Construction.** The company's conservative 2026 outlook was partly driven by expected cyclical headwinds in the residential construction sector.

**4. Ongoing Tariff Impacts.** Mueller Water Products cited persistent external headwinds, including the impact of tariffs, as a factor influencing its cautious guidance for 2026.

**5. Broader Market Volatility and Investor Caution.** The stock's decline also reflected broader market volatility and a general sense of investor caution following the earnings release.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MWA Return5%18%-24%36%58%10%125%
Peers Return6%-1%-19%64%66%13%161%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MWA Win Rate50%67%33%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%42%67%54%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MWA Max Drawdown-41%-4%-29%0%-6%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-15%-38%-2%-6%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GGG, GHM, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMWAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven589 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven289 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven809 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-91.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1140.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5610 days1480 days

Compare to GGG, GHM, ADVEN, BENN, HRDG


In The Past

Mueller Water Products's stock fell -42.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -42.3% loss requires a 73.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Mueller Water Products (MWA)

Better Bets than Mueller Water Products (MWA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MWA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MWA_12312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312024MWAMueller Water ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.2%9.9%-3.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MWA_12312024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312024MWAMueller Water ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.2%9.9%-3.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mueller Water Products

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MWAGGGGHMADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameMueller .Graco Graham AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Mkt Price24.6282.9957.30---57.30
Mkt Cap3.913.80.6---3.9
Rev LTM1,3972,192228---1,397
Op Inc LTM24458217---244
FCF LTM173625-11---173
FCF 3Y Avg12349612---123
CFO LTM22567213---225
CFO 3Y Avg17262226---172

Growth & Margins

MWAGGGGHMADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameMueller .Graco Graham AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Rev Chg LTM10.2%2.9%16.0%---10.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.0%1.0%17.0%---5.0%
Rev Chg Q6.6%4.7%23.3%---6.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%1.1%5.8%---1.7%
Op Mgn LTM17.5%26.6%7.4%---17.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.3%28.0%5.1%---14.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-0.1%-0.4%----0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.1%30.7%5.7%---16.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.9%28.7%13.5%---13.5%
FCF/Rev LTM12.4%28.5%-4.7%---12.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%22.8%6.8%---9.3%

Valuation

MWAGGGGHMADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameMueller .Graco Graham AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
Mkt Cap3.913.80.6---3.9
P/S2.76.42.6---2.7
P/EBIT16.423.035.6---23.0
P/E25.228.344.1---28.3
P/CFO16.720.946.4---20.9
Total Yield4.5%4.8%2.3%---4.5%
Dividend Yield0.5%1.3%0.0%---0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%3.6%6.0%---3.9%
D/E0.10.00.0---0.0
Net D/E0.0-0.0-0.0----0.0

Returns

MWAGGGGHMADVENBENNHRDGMedian
NameMueller .Graco Graham AdvEn Bend Nov.Huarui I. 
1M Rtn-4.2%1.9%-8.0%----4.2%
3M Rtn-5.3%-1.5%20.9%----1.5%
6M Rtn1.8%-0.9%40.1%---1.8%
12M Rtn-2.7%-7.6%27.6%----2.7%
3Y Rtn118.7%22.7%487.7%---118.7%
1M Excs Rtn-4.2%1.9%-8.0%----4.2%
3M Excs Rtn-13.0%-8.7%11.2%----8.7%
6M Excs Rtn-12.9%-15.6%25.4%----12.9%
12M Excs Rtn-14.2%-21.2%14.3%----14.2%
3Y Excs Rtn51.8%-47.2%414.9%---51.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,703,224
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202513.8%
Average Daily Volume1,542,440
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.40
Basic Shares Quantity156,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024205202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241120202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231214202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221118202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211119202110-K 9/30/2021