SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (8/18/2026): $1620.37 | Market Cap: $239.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (8/18/2026): $1620.37Market Cap: $239.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 175% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 185%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 3912% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 175% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 185%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 3912% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% |
| Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has gained about 65% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q4 2026 Performance Driven by AI Demand.
SanDisk reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter 2026, which ended July 3, 2026, with revenue surging 372% year-over-year to $8.97 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share reaching $39.25. This significant growth was primarily attributed to strong demand for its NAND flash memory products from AI infrastructure builders and data centers, with approximately two-thirds of the revenue increase coming from higher pricing and one-third from increased sales volumes.
2. Bullish Long-Term Financial Targets and Strategic Focus on AI at 2026 Investor Day.
At its "In Focus" 2026 Investor Day on August 13, 2026, SanDisk unveiled an ambitious long-term financial model for fiscal years 2028 through 2030. The company projected mid-to-high teens annual revenue growth, sustainable non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 80%, and non-GAAP operating margins near 75%. SanDisk also committed to returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders after funding business investments, signaling confidence in its future profitability and a shift in its business model towards a more predictable AI storage infrastructure provider.
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has gained about 65% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q4 2026 Performance Driven by AI Demand.
SanDisk reported robust financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter 2026, which ended July 3, 2026, with revenue surging 372% year-over-year to $8.97 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share reaching $39.25. This significant growth was primarily attributed to strong demand for its NAND flash memory products from AI infrastructure builders and data centers, with approximately two-thirds of the revenue increase coming from higher pricing and one-third from increased sales volumes.
2. Bullish Long-Term Financial Targets and Strategic Focus on AI at 2026 Investor Day.
At its "In Focus" 2026 Investor Day on August 13, 2026, SanDisk unveiled an ambitious long-term financial model for fiscal years 2028 through 2030. The company projected mid-to-high teens annual revenue growth, sustainable non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 80%, and non-GAAP operating margins near 75%. SanDisk also committed to returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders after funding business investments, signaling confidence in its future profitability and a shift in its business model towards a more predictable AI storage infrastructure provider.
3. Favorable Macroeconomic Environment with Persistent Memory Supply Shortages and Soaring NAND Prices.
The broader memory storage market experienced a significant upswing due to a pronounced supply shortage and escalating prices, particularly for NAND flash. Forecasts for Q2 2026 indicated a 70% to 75% quarter-on-quarter rise in NAND Flash contract prices. This tight supply, coupled with surging demand for high-performance storage from the rapid buildout of AI data centers, created a highly beneficial pricing environment for SanDisk, a pure-play NAND developer and manufacturer.
4. Significant Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets.
Several Wall Street firms issued bullish reports and substantially increased their price targets for SanDisk. For example, in July 2026, Goldman Sachs nearly doubled its price target to $2,200 from $1,200. Melius Research set a target of $2,350.00, Barclays raised its target to $2,300.00, New Street Research set a $3,000.00 target, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. initiated coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a $2,250.00 price target in August 2026. These upgrades reflected growing analyst optimism regarding SanDisk's role in the AI-driven memory market and its long-term growth prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 63.0% change in SNDK stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 121.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1096.51 | 1786.85 | 63.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,929 | 6,496 | -27.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 18.1 | 39.9 | 121.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 145 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 63.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 63.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.3% | 74.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 210.1% change in SNDK stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 320.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 576.25 | 1786.85 | 210.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,929 | 6,496 | -27.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.5 | 39.9 | 320.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 145 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 210.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 210.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.0% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.4% | 68.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4063.2% change in SNDK stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 3924.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.92 | 1786.85 | 4063.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,279 | 6,496 | 3.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 39.9 | 3924.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 145 | 145 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4063.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 4063.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.3% | 47.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 45.5% | 61.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.7% | 47.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 117.4% | 59.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNDK Return | - | - | - | - | 388% | 591% | 3277% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -35% | 54% | 16% | 153% | 187% | 1081% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNDK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 73% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 60% | 55% | 72% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNDK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -46% | -20% | -28% | -42% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MU, STX, WDC, NTAP, HPE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is a global technology company specializing in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of innovative data storage solutions. The company focuses on flash memory technology, providing a broad portfolio of products that enable digital storage across consumer, enterprise, and mobile markets. Its primary offerings include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash solutions, and various removable memory products.
SanDisk's product lineup is extensive. For computing, it offers client SSDs for desktops, notebooks, and tablets, as well as enterprise SSD solutions under brand names like SanDisk Extreme and SanDisk SSD Plus. Its embedded products, such as iNAND, are vital for mobile phones, tablets, wearables, and automotive applications. Additionally, the company provides a wide array of removable products, including microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards for cameras and mobile devices, along with USB flash drives and wireless storage solutions.
The company serves a diverse customer base through both direct sales and an extensive network of distributors. SanDisk's products are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), system integrators, and value-added resellers. Furthermore, it has a strong retail presence, making its products available to consumers through major channels like consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, and e-commerce platforms worldwide.
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SanDisk is like the Intel of flash memory, providing the essential digital storage chips and products for devices ranging from smartphones to enterprise data centers.
SanDisk is also like Kingston Technology, but exclusively focused on flash memory products like USB drives, SD cards, and SSDs for consumers and businesses.
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- Solid State Drives (SSDs): Data storage devices for client computing applications and enterprise solutions.
- Embedded Products (iNAND): Integrated flash memory solutions designed for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, and automotive applications.
- Removable Memory Cards: Includes microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards used in mobile products, digital cameras, and camcorders.
- USB Flash Drives: Portable universal serial bus storage devices for the computing and consumer markets.
- Wireless Drive Products: Devices that allow wireless streaming of movies, photos, music, and documents to various smart devices.
- Digital Media Players (Sansa): Portable devices for playing digital media, offered under the Sansa brand.
- Memory Wafers and Components: Fundamental flash memory components and raw materials used in the manufacturing of storage products.
- Software Solutions: Complementary software designed to enhance the functionality and management of flash storage products.
- InfiniFlash System: An enterprise system solution providing petabyte-scalable, high-performance flash storage capacity.
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Major Customers of SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk primarily sells its products to other companies. Its major business customers include:- Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
- System integrators
- Value-added resellers (VARs)
- Retail channels, such as consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, e-commerce retailers, catalog and mail order companies, drug stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and kiosks.
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- Toshiba Corporation (TOSBF)
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David V. Goeckeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
David Goeckeler was appointed Chairman and CEO of SanDisk in February 2025, following the company's spin-off from Western Digital. Previously, he served as the CEO of Western Digital, where he led the company's transformation and separation into two independent public entities: Western Digital and SanDisk. Prior to his leadership at Western Digital, Goeckeler was the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Cisco's $34 billion networking and security business. He began his career at Bell Laboratories.
Luis Felipe Visoso, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Luis Felipe Visoso became SanDisk's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in February 2025, coinciding with the company's separation from Western Digital. Before joining SanDisk, he held the position of Chief Administrative Officer at Western Digital from August 2024 to February 2025. His extensive financial leadership experience includes serving as CFO of Unity Software Inc. (April 2021 – August 2024), CFO of Palo Alto Networks (July 2020 – April 2021), and various CFO roles at Amazon, including for Amazon Web Services and the Worldwide Consumer division. He also held a senior finance leadership role at Cisco from February 2016 to December 2018. Visoso spent over 23 years at Procter & Gamble in global finance leadership positions across Latin America, Europe, and the United States. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering and a minor in International Business from Tecnológico de Monterrey.
Alper Ilkbahar, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
As the Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Alper Ilkbahar is responsible for SanDisk's technological vision. He leads the company's research and development initiatives, focusing on advancing data storage technologies, including semiconductor design, memory technologies, and data management solutions.
V. Don Angspatt, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
V. Don Angspatt serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for SanDisk.
Bernard Shek, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Bernard Shek holds the titles of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary at SanDisk.
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Key Risks to SanDisk (SNDK)
- Technological Obsolescence and Rapid Innovation Cycle: SanDisk operates in the highly dynamic data storage industry, particularly flash memory, which is characterized by rapid technological advancements and short product lifecycles. The risk lies in the potential for competitors to introduce superior or more cost-effective memory technologies, architectures, or manufacturing processes that could render SanDisk's current product offerings less competitive or obsolete. This necessitates continuous and significant investment in research and development to maintain market relevance and product leadership.
- Intense Price Competition and Margin Pressure: The market for flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs) is highly competitive and often subject to significant pricing pressure. Factors such as oversupply in the market, aggressive pricing strategies by competitors, or general economic downturns can lead to price erosion for SanDisk's products. This intense competition can compress profit margins and make it challenging to maintain profitability, even amidst high sales volumes.
- Dependence on Key Customers and End Markets: SanDisk's business relies heavily on sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across various sectors, including mobile phones, tablets, and computing devices, as well as system integrators and various retail channels. Significant shifts in demand within these key end markets (e.g., a slowdown in smartphone growth or a decline in PC sales), or a major OEM choosing to switch suppliers or develop their own storage solutions, could materially impact SanDisk's revenue and business performance.
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SanDisk (SNDK) operates in several significant addressable markets for its data storage solutions. The company's main products include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash storage, and removable products such as memory cards and USB flash drives, all based on NAND flash technology.
- Solid State Drives (SSDs): The global solid state drive market was estimated at USD 19.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 55.1 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the highest market share, 42.2%, in 2023. The global PC SSDs market alone was valued at USD 18.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.33 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.9% during the forecast period. For enterprise solutions, the global enterprise flash storage market was worth USD 29.70 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 112.95 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16% during the forecast period 2025 to 2033.
- Embedded Products (e.g., iNAND): The global embedded storage solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 10.24 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 22.07 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of roughly 8.91% between 2024 and 2032. This market is driven by the increasing use of embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM) in consumer electronics, such as smartphones, wearables, IoT devices, and the automotive industry.
- NAND Flash Memory: As the foundational technology for many of SanDisk's products, the global NAND flash market size was valued at USD 65.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 111.7 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034.
- Removable Products (Flash Memory Cards): The global flash memory card market size was valued at USD 9.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 12.9 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025-2033. Specifically, the global Secure Digital (SD) memory card market was valued at USD 8.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2025 and 2032.
- USB Flash Drives: The global USB flash drive market size is projected to be USD 5.93 billion in 2025 and reach USD 8.77 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.66% from 2026 to 2031. Another estimate places the global USB Flash Drives Market size at USD 6142.8 million in 2025, expected to boost sales to USD 11369.89 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.00% from 2025 to 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for SanDisk (symbol: SNDK) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Demand for NAND Flash Memory Across Industries: As one of the top five global suppliers and a vertically integrated producer of NAND flash memory semiconductors, SanDisk is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing worldwide demand for flash storage. This demand is fueled by the continued growth in data generation from various sectors, including mobile computing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, all requiring high-capacity and high-performance flash solutions.
- Expansion in Enterprise and Cloud Solid State Drive (SSD) Markets: SanDisk's focus on repackaging its flash chips into Solid State Drives (SSDs) for cloud storage, in addition to consumer electronics and external storage, presents a significant revenue growth opportunity. The company's offerings, including enterprise SSD solutions and system solutions like the InfiniFlash System, are crucial for supporting the escalating storage needs of data centers and hyperscale cloud providers.
- Increased Adoption of Embedded Storage in Emerging Technologies: The iNAND brand, SanDisk's line of embedded products for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, wearable devices, automotive, and connected home applications, is a key driver. As these markets mature and new technologies emerge, the demand for integrated and efficient flash storage solutions within these devices is expected to grow.
- Optimized Manufacturing and Strategic Joint Ventures: SanDisk's vertical integration, which involves producing most of its flash chips at manufacturing sites in Japan through a joint venture with Kioxia, provides a stable and cost-effective supply chain. Furthermore, the recent joint venture with Fab2 in September 2025 demonstrates an ongoing strategy to enhance manufacturing capabilities and secure future production, thereby supporting long-term revenue expansion.
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Outbound Investments
- SanDisk extended its flash supply joint venture agreement with Kioxia through the end of 2034 in January 2026. This agreement was previously set to expire at the end of 2029.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending June 27, 2025, SanDisk reported capital expenditures of $1,132 million.
- The company is directing ongoing research and development investments towards enhancing product density and efficiency, specifically targeting market share expansion in response to the growing demand from AI data centers.
- SanDisk is significantly investing in its BiCS8 technology, an advanced flash memory, with plans for it to constitute the majority of bit production by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 9 | 83.5% | 263.3% | 476.9% | FLEX 898% · TTMI 896% · JBL 531% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 27 | 200.6% | 113.2% | 158.7% | AEHR 2567% · AXTI 997% · KLAC 580% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 21.4% | 71.1% | 80.1% | CLMB 334% · AVT 180% · SNX 129% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 74.1% | 80.2% | 80.1% | CLS 3813% · BELFA 1579% · LPTH 667% |
| Communications Equipment | 35 | 45.7% | 88.9% | 60.6% | AAOI 2215% · LITE 1086% · FEIM 904% |
| Semiconductors | 54 | 44.1% | 53.3% | 50.0% | POET 2208% · MU 1369% · NVDA 1086% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals ← | 22 | 37.1% | 88.0% | 32.4% | STX 1197% · WDC 1080% · DELL 981% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 14.8% | 34.8% | 21.1% | DOCN 155% · GDDY 33% · VRSN 33% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | 2.4% | 12.9% | -3.2% | PI 257% · SOTK 135% · NSSC 132% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 28 | -26.9% | -14.1% | -21.4% | CHRN 583847% · APLD 2415% · TSSI 762% |
| Application Software | 123 | -20.1% | -11.0% | -43.5% | VIDA 220809% · PLTR 583% · RDVT 170% |
| Systems Software | 67 | -9.2% | 23.2% | -48.5% | QNC 840% · PANW 522% · PAYS 426% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 765.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 206.0 |
| Rev LTM | 16,584 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,412 |
| FCF LTM | 3,750 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,579 |
| CFO LTM | 5,144 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,892 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 34.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 46.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 118.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 321.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,786.85 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 264.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,621.31 | $298.18 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.2% | 499.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 139.5% | 116.9% |
| Downside Capture | 479.14 | 290.54 |
| Upside Capture | 525.44 | 664.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.4% | 48.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 7.27 | 5.43 | 4.99 | 3.85 | 4.30 | 0.35 |
| Up Beta | 22.42 | 8.79 | 6.91 | 4.48 | 3.57 | -0.12 |
| Down Beta | 0.56 | 2.56 | 2.22 | 2.65 | 3.34 | 1.53 |
| Up Capture | -7% | 587% | 851% | 1249% | 18672% | 3225% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 33 | 69 | 147 | 200 |
| Down Capture | 744% | 425% | 379% | 224% | 178% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 30 | 57 | 105 | 159 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 3,783.9% | 116.6% | 3.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 43.0% | 25.9% | 1.34 | 61.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.9% | 12.8% | 1.21 | 47.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 32.1% | 28.5% | 0.97 | 20.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.1% | 20.2% | 1.55 | 0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.9% | 0.72 | -5.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.9% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 20.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 106.6% | 106.0% | 2.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.7% | 25.8% | 0.71 | 59.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 47.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 18.5% | 0.89 | 15.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 52.7% | 0.31 | 17.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 43.7% | 106.0% | 2.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.89 | 59.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.2% | 0.62 | 15.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 11.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.1% | 1.00 | 17.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -2.5% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 02/21/2014 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2013 | 10/22/2013 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2013 | 07/30/2013 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2013 | 05/03/2013 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2012 | 02/19/2013 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2012 | 11/05/2012 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2012 | 08/06/2012 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2012 | 05/08/2012 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2011 | 02/23/2012 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2011 | 11/09/2011 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2011 | 08/10/2011 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2011 | 05/11/2011 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 7.75 Bil | 8.00 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 73.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.60 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 30 | 31.5 | 33 | 142.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 13 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin | 78.9% | 79.9% | 80.9% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 79.0% | 80.0% | 81.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | 523.00 Mil | 540.50 Mil | 558.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | 480.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Expense | 775.00 Mil | 825.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 4.40 Bil | 4.60 Bil | 4.80 Bil | 76.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.60 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 12 | 13 | 14 | 306.2% | Higher New | Actual: 3.2 for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 2.55 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 20.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.15 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 300.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.8 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Margin | 41.0% | 42.0% | 43.0% | 13.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Expenses | 450.00 Mil | 462.50 Mil | 475.00 Mil | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 422.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 1162.16 | 600 | 697,296 | 35,928,176 | Form |
| 2 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 2088.00 | 600 | 1,252,800 | 65,803,320 | Form |
| 3 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 1736.00 | 600 | 1,041,600 | 55,954,752 | Form |
| 4 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 1756.58 | 2,000 | 3,513,153 | 92,531,178 | Form |
| 5 | Pokorny, Michael | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 1426.18 | 2,446 | 3,488,436 | 31,910,778 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 1162.16 | 600 | 697,296 | 35,928,176 | Form |
| 2 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 2088.00 | 600 | 1,252,800 | 65,803,320 | Form |
| 3 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 1736.00 | 600 | 1,041,600 | 55,954,752 | Form |
| 4 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 1756.58 | 2,000 | 3,513,153 | 92,531,178 | Form |
| 5 | Pokorny, Michael | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 1426.18 | 2,446 | 3,488,436 | 31,910,778 | Form |
| 6 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 1503.11 | 579 | 870,301 | 4,359,019 | Form | |
| 7 | Suzuki, Miyuki | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 627.53 | 3,500 | 2,196,360 | 6,216,953 | Form | |
| 8 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 195.14 | 1,271 | 248,027 | 678,902 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 18, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $31.3 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $25.2 Mil | 2.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $22.3 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $21.2 Mil | 1.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $5.9 Mil | 1.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $102.5 Mil | 5.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $7.4 Mil | 0.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $10.9 Mil | 0.8% | 29 | TRIM -96.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $8.9 Mil | 1.3% | 44 | TRIM -26.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
SNDK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The business model is shifting from cyclical to contractual, backed by a $91.1 billion revenue backlog from new customer agreements. This provides a multi-year runway for high-margin revenue, insulating a large part of the business from historical volatility. While the market is focused on peak price acceleration, this backlog points to a more durable and profitable future.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Manufacturing / Hardware (with a rapid transition to a Contractual model)Revenue = (Volume of bits sold) x (Average Selling Price per bit) Mix shift to high-value Datacenter SSDs and locking in structurally higher margins through New Business Models (NBMs).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a fundamental business model shift is creating unprecedented, multi-year earnings power and visibility.
- Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) is $91.1 billion, including post-quarter deals.
- Datacenter segment revenue grew 103% sequentially to $2,977 million.
- Latest-quarter gross margin was 84.6%, with guidance for 83% to 85% next quarter.
- NBMs are expected to cover over 50% of bits in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in 2028.
- The company has signed 10 NBM agreements with 8 different customers.
PRIMARY RISK
Guidance for flat sequential gross margins suggests the period of explosive price increases, which drove two-thirds of recent growth, may be over. This could lead to multiple compression even if revenue remains strong, as the market prices in a cyclical peak.
- Q1 gross margin guidance of 83-85% is flat versus Q4's actual 84.6%.
- Sequential revenue growth was driven two-thirds by higher pricing.
- The industry is historically subject to periods of excess capacity and price volatility.
- Peer Micron Technology is pursuing an identical long-term agreement strategy.
- The stock fell -12.0% after the last earnings report despite strong results.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| New Business Models (NBMs) / Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) | $59.8 billion in Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) as of the end of Q4 FY2026. - Accelerating | The company is rapidly transitioning its business model toward multiyear supply partnerships, which it calls New Business Models (NBMs). The number of customers under these agreements grew from five in the prior quarter to eight in the latest quarter. The sharp increase in RPO reflects strong customer adoption of this new model, which provides SanDisk with significantly improved revenue visibility and durability. |
| Datacenter Revenue Growth | $2,977 million in Q4 FY2026. - Accelerating | Datacenter has become the company's fastest-growing end market, fueled by demand for AI infrastructure. Sequential growth has been explosive, with rates of 64%, 233%, and 103% over the last three quarters. Management noted that a year ago, the segment represented 12% of bits, but it now represents 38% of the portfolio. |
| New Business Models (NBMs) Signed | 10 agreements with 8 customers (As of 8/5/2026) | The pace of NBM signings indicates the speed of the company's business model transformation towards more predictable, long-term revenue streams and reflects strong customer demand for supply assurance. |
| Datacenter Bit Mix | 38% of portfolio (Exiting FY2026) | Measures the company's exposure to the highest-growth, highest-value end market. The rapid increase from 12% a year prior demonstrates a successful strategic pivot to capitalize on AI-driven demand. |
Structural Shift vs. Cyclical Peak
BULL VIEW
New Business Models (NBMs) with $16.5 billion in financial guarantees are creating a durable, high-margin annuity stream, fundamentally breaking from the industry's boom-bust past.
CORE TENSION
Can the $91.1B contractual backlog insulate the business from historical NAND price volatility, which the market fears after the recent -12.0% post-earnings stock reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the structural shift view. The RPO continues to accelerate, locking in future high-margin revenue and providing a powerful buffer against potential spot market weakness.
BEAR VIEW
This is a historic upcycle, but no cycle lasts forever. NBMs have not been tested in a downturn, and flat margin guidance signals the top is near.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/26/2026 | Peer Earnings Signal Market Shift Watch: Peer commentary on data center demand, inventory levels, and forward pricing trends for memory and storage. |
11/4/2026 | NBM Execution Scrutiny Watch: Pace of new NBM signings, total remaining performance obligation (RPO), and any changes to margin expectations under these deals. |
11/4/2026 | Company Q1 Earnings Report Watch: SanDisk is scheduled to report Q1 FY2027 earnings and provide guidance for Q2 FY2027. |
12/1/2026 | NetApp Earnings Report Watch: Peer NetApp (NTAP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
12/2/2026 | HPE Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Geopolitical Trade Action Watch: Official announcements from the U.S. administration regarding new tariffs or trade restrictions on semiconductors or related products. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-05 | Reports Record Q4, Expands Buyback Details: Reported record Q4 revenue of $8.965 billion. Announced 5 additional NBMs and a new $14 billion share repurchase authorization. The stock fell -12.0% post-earnings. | -11.8% $1427.62 -> $1258.58 |
2026-07-03 | Begins 10th-Gen Flash Production Details: The company and partner Kioxia announced the start of production for their 10th-generation 3D Flash memory technology at the Kitakami Plant in Japan. | -14.2% $2032.22 -> $1744.43 |
2026-06-08 | Analyst Price Target Upgrade Noted Details: A press report noted a bank lifted its price objective to $2,100 from $1,550, citing robust NAND demand and new long-term supply agreements. | +5.6% $1559.32 -> $1646.54 |
2026-04-30 | Reports Strong Q3 and Raises Guidance Details: Reported year-over-year Q3 revenue growth of 251%, raised Q4 revenue guidance by 73.9%, and announced the first five multiyear 'New Business Model' partnerships. | +11.5% $1064.21 -> $1187.00 |
2026-03-04 | Company Repays All Term Debt Details: The company settled in full the remaining outstanding principal amounts of its Term Loan Facility using cash on hand, recognizing a $46 million loss on debt extinguishment. | +0.0% $565.41 -> $565.59 |
2026-02-18 | WDC Secondary Stock Offering Details: Former parent Western Digital (WDC) completed a secondary offering of 5,821,135 shares of SanDisk common stock. | +5.2% $590.59 -> $621.09 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: SNDK trades at roughly 85% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 12% for the S&P 500 (6.9x the market), around the 13th percentile of its own trailing year. A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MU - Micron Technology
Larger-Scale PeerMicron offers greater scale with revenue 4.5 times that of SanDisk and vastly larger capital and R&D budgets, potentially providing more long-term stability and technology leadership.
STX - Seagate Technology
Different Storage ExposureSeagate provides exposure to the data storage theme with a focus on high-capacity hard disk drives (HDDs), which serve a different, cost-focused tier of the data center market.
SanDisk is transforming from a cyclical commodity memory chip maker into a strategic, high-margin supplier of critical AI infrastructure with unprecedented, multi-year revenue visibility.
Fueled by the AI inference boom, SanDisk is capitalizing on its technology leadership to fundamentally change its business model. Through new multi-year, high-margin contracts (NBMs) with major datacenter and edge customers, the company is locking in a significant portion of its future production, dramatically reducing cyclicality and increasing earnings predictability. This shift from quarterly price negotiations to long-term strategic partnerships is unlocking the franchise's true value, turning it into a powerful and durable cash generator.
Announcements of additional large-scale NBMs, upward revisions to NBM revenue commitments from existing partners, or evidence of competitors adopting similar long-term contract structures.
A significant customer failing to meet NBM purchase obligations despite financial penalties, a sharp and sustained downturn in AI infrastructure spending, or a competitor rapidly adding new capacity that alters the supply/demand balance.
Short-term fluctuations in spot NAND prices for the uncontracted portion of the business or quarterly revenue variations in the consumer segment.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the de-risked business model, evidenced by the massive and growing Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO), which provides a clear path to more stable and structurally higher earnings and cash flow.
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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