Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $156.37 | Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $156.37Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Key risksONTO key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration from a few key customers and [2] geopolitical factors disrupting its international supply chain and manufacturing operations. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Key risksONTO key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration from a few key customers and [2] geopolitical factors disrupting its international supply chain and manufacturing operations. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONTO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that contributed to Onto Innovation's stock movement:
1. Strong 2024 Financial Performance and Growth Momentum: Onto Innovation reported record quarterly revenue of $264 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of growth. The company's full-year 2024 revenue increased by 21% over 2023, reaching $987 million, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) growing by 43%. This robust financial performance and sustained growth, particularly in advanced nodes and advanced packaging markets, established a strong foundation for investor confidence heading into 2025.
2. Leadership in AI Packaging: A significant driver for the stock was the exceptional growth in AI packaging revenue, which surged by 180% over 2023. This growth was fueled by the increasing demand for AI-driven semiconductor solutions, positioning Onto Innovation as a key player in a rapidly expanding market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONTO Return | 30% | 113% | -33% | 125% | 9% | -9% | 315% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 46% | -38% | 65% | 2% | 72% | 294% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONTO Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 33% | 63% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONTO Max Drawdown | -43% | 0% | -42% | 0% | -11% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -6% | -54% | -6% | -8% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, FORM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1252.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SANM, VNT, BMI, VSH, Q
In The Past
Onto Innovation's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 70.1% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 70.1% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Onto Innovation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 165.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 87.4 |
| Rev LTM | 8,178 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,892 |
| FCF LTM | 2,201 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,903 |
| CFO LTM | 2,464 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,124 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 87.4 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| P/EBIT | 32.1 |
| P/E | 38.6 |
| P/CFO | 30.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 69.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 56.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 55.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 66.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.6% | -1.5% | 23.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 11.0% | 18.7% | 11.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -30.2% | -22.7% | -21.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -11.2% | -17.4% | -41.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | -11.2% | -11.1% | -13.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 8.5% | 18.6% | 1.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 7.5% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -4.2% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 11.0% | 20.3% | 35.2% |
| Max Negative | -30.2% | -22.7% | -41.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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