Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.56 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.56Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Key risksONTO key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration from a few key customers and [2] geopolitical factors disrupting its international supply chain and manufacturing operations. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Key risksONTO key risks include [1] significant revenue concentration from a few key customers and [2] geopolitical factors disrupting its international supply chain and manufacturing operations. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONTO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Onto Innovation (ONTO) experienced significant activity between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, influenced by a combination of strategic acquisitions, product innovations in AI device manufacturing, and financial results.
1. Acquisition of Semilab Product Lines:
Onto Innovation completed the acquisition of unique materials composition and electrical analysis product lines from Semilab International, announced on November 17, 2025. This acquisition was valued at approximately $545 million in cash and stock, with an expected addition of over $130 million in annual revenue and immediate accretion to earnings per share upon closing. The initial value of the transaction based on Onto's closing price as of June 27, 2025, was about $495 million, a decrease of approximately $50 million from the original terms.
2. Strong Performance in Q2 and Q3 2025 Earnings:
Onto Innovation reported its Q2 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, with revenue of $253.6 million, surpassing the midpoint of its guidance and increasing 5% year-over-year from Q2 2024. The company also delivered its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, reporting an EPS of $0.92, which topped the consensus estimate of $0.89. This robust profitability, despite a slight revenue miss, highlighted effective cost management and strong operational performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONTO Return | 30% | 113% | -33% | 125% | 9% | -7% | 322% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 46% | -38% | 65% | 2% | 73% | 296% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONTO Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 33% | 63% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONTO Max Drawdown | -43% | 0% | -42% | 0% | -11% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -6% | -54% | -6% | -8% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, FORM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1252.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SANM, VNT, BMI, VSH, Q
In The Past
Onto Innovation's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 67.8% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 67.8% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Onto Innovation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 151.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 82.2 |
| Rev LTM | 8,178 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,892 |
| FCF LTM | 2,201 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,903 |
| CFO LTM | 2,464 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,124 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 82.2 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 27.5 |
| P/E | 31.7 |
| P/CFO | 24.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 135.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 44.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 59.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.6% | -1.5% | 23.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 11.0% | 18.7% | 11.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -30.2% | -22.7% | -21.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -11.2% | -17.4% | -41.4% |
| 10/31/2024 | -11.2% | -11.1% | -13.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 8.5% | 18.6% | 1.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | 9.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 7.5% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -4.2% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 11.0% | 20.3% | 35.2% |
| Max Negative | -30.2% | -22.7% | -41.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
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