Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $159.45 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $159.45Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONTO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Onto Innovation (ONTO) stock performance from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, shows a complex picture rather than a straightforward 50.4% increase. Based on the search results, the stock experienced fluctuations, including declines after its Q3 2025 earnings report. For example, on November 6, 2025, the stock fell by 2.95% to $135.76 following earnings. Another source shows a 52-week range between $85.88 and $228.42, and a one-year change of -4.16% as of December 3, 2025. As of December 2, 2025, the stock was at $154.01, with a positive movement of 4.77% on that day. On December 3, 2025, the stock closed at $158.12, up 2.67%. On December 5, 2025, the stock was at $159.45, up 0.84% in the past 24 hours and a 26.05% rise over the month.
However, the premise of a 50.4% increase within this specific timeframe is not directly supported by the provided search results which indicate a more volatile and, at times, downward trend in the immediate aftermath of Q3 earnings in early November 2025.
Therefore, I cannot accurately identify the key points for a 50.4% stock movement *up* for Onto Innovation for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 5, 2025), as the provided information does not indicate such a consistent upward trend. The stock experienced a decline post-Q3 earnings in early November, although there were some recent daily gains.
However, I can highlight general positive developments for the company that might contribute to *potential* positive sentiment, even if they don't directly correspond to the specified stock increase percentage within the exact timeframe provided by the user. I will list these as they represent significant company activities reported within or near the requested period.
Here are potential key points that *could* drive stock performance, based on information available for the specified period:
1. Onto Innovation's Dragonfly® 3Di™ technology was fully qualified by two major high-bandwidth memory (HBM) customers, and the company secured orders for 2.5D logic applications, crucial for AI accelerators and advanced GPUs. This development positions Onto Innovation to capitalize on the growing demand in AI computing and memory investment.
2. The company completed the acquisition of unique materials composition and electrical analysis product lines from Semilab International on November 17, 2025. This acquisition, valued at approximately $495 million, is expected to enhance Onto Innovation's capabilities in inline wafer contamination monitoring, materials characterization, and surface charge metrology. It is also projected to be immediately accretive to margins and add to diluted earnings per share in Q4 2025, with an anticipated contribution of about $120 million in revenue in 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONTO Return | 30% | 113% | -33% | 125% | 9% | -4% | 336% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 9% | 1% | 25% | 13% | 18% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONTO Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 40% | 40% | 48% | 43% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONTO Max Drawdown | -43% | 0% | -42% | 0% | -11% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -5% | -22% | -6% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SANM, VNT, BMI, VSH, Q.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1252.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SANM, VNT, BMI, VSH, Q
In The Past
Onto Innovation's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 72.0% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 55.7% | 72.0% | -2.1% |
| 08312022 | ONTO | Onto Innovation | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 95.8% | -16.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Onto Innovation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,013 |
| Op Inc LTM | 279 |
| FCF LTM | 313 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 205 |
| CFO LTM | 381 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 247 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 20.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
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