Tearsheet

Ciena (CIEN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $197.81 | Market Cap: $28.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Ciena (CIEN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $197.81
Market Cap: $28.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.2%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 168%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 168%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CIEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CIEN Return24%46%-34%-12%88%131%358%
Peers Return25%39%-4%-0%24%58%223%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CIEN Win Rate50%67%33%42%83%80% 
Peers Win Rate58%63%42%58%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CIEN Max Drawdown-19%-8%-49%-21%-3%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-9%-35%-24%-19%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, LITE, PI, AVT, IRDM. See CIEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCIENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven793 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven380 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven288 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven856.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4081 days1480 days

Compare to CSCO, LITE, PI, AVT, IRDM


In The Past

Ciena's stock fell -49.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -49.5% loss requires a 98.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Ciena (CIEN)

Better Bets than Ciena (CIEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CIEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
CIEN_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022CIENCienaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.9%-8.0%-22.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
CIEN_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022CIENCienaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-14.9%-8.0%-22.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ciena

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CIENCSCOLITEPIAVTIRDMMedian
NameCiena Cisco Sy.Lumentum Impinj Avnet Iridium . 
Mkt Price195.7377.76327.85156.7949.1317.54117.28
Mkt Cap27.8308.023.04.64.11.913.8
Rev LTM4,54256,6541,84236022,4958723,192
Op Inc LTM25412,504-104-2604233243
FCF LTM60513,288-8841333305319
FCF 3Y Avg24714,178-6121212279230
CFO LTM78414,19314556474396435
CFO 3Y Avg36814,98612339400358363

Growth & Margins

CIENCSCOLITEPIAVTIRDMMedian
NameCiena Cisco Sy.Lumentum Impinj Avnet Iridium . 
Rev Chg LTM13.0%5.3%33.6%4.2%-2.3%7.3%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.4%3.4%3.4%16.1%-3.9%8.6%5.4%
Rev Chg Q29.4%7.6%58.4%0.9%5.3%6.7%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.5%1.9%12.0%0.2%1.3%1.7%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM5.6%22.1%-5.7%-0.5%2.7%26.7%4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.7%24.5%-14.5%-4.8%3.6%19.2%5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.3%6.0%0.4%-0.1%1.3%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM17.3%25.1%7.9%15.6%2.1%45.5%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%26.7%7.5%10.5%1.8%43.3%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM13.3%23.5%-4.8%11.3%1.5%35.0%12.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%25.3%-3.8%5.1%1.0%33.7%5.4%

Valuation

CIENCSCOLITEPIAVTIRDMMedian
NameCiena Cisco Sy.Lumentum Impinj Avnet Iridium . 
Mkt Cap27.8308.023.04.64.11.913.8
P/S2.54.96.214.70.22.13.7
P/EBIT38.921.7-175.2-555.28.88.08.4
P/E81.927.0101.7-427.718.614.722.8
P/CFO14.719.479.194.39.24.717.0
Total Yield1.2%6.0%1.0%-0.2%8.0%10.2%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%0.0%0.0%2.6%3.4%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%6.4%-1.0%-1.0%4.5%9.6%3.4%
D/E0.10.10.30.10.71.00.2
Net D/E0.00.00.20.00.70.90.1

Returns

CIENCSCOLITEPIAVTIRDMMedian
NameCiena Cisco Sy.Lumentum Impinj Avnet Iridium . 
1M Rtn7.0%7.5%74.1%-10.7%4.6%-1.6%5.8%
3M Rtn67.4%15.1%131.0%-16.7%-7.0%-28.2%4.1%
6M Rtn167.9%21.8%301.6%35.6%-1.4%-33.0%28.7%
12M Rtn167.6%33.8%245.5%-17.3%-8.7%-41.4%12.6%
3Y Rtn334.8%72.1%502.1%34.1%20.8%-63.6%53.1%
1M Excs Rtn5.8%6.3%72.8%-12.0%3.3%-2.8%4.6%
3M Excs Rtn61.9%11.1%113.6%-23.7%-13.2%-35.4%-1.0%
6M Excs Rtn152.5%6.3%286.1%20.1%-16.9%-48.4%13.2%
12M Excs Rtn168.2%20.8%266.2%-29.8%-22.4%-54.6%-0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn279.4%2.6%439.2%-46.2%-52.1%-137.5%-21.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,836,886
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202542.4%
Average Daily Volume3,166,244
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.84
Basic Shares Quantity141,846,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025904202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025605202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025312202510-Q 2/1/2025
103120241220202410-K 11/2/2024
7312024904202410-Q 7/27/2024
4302024606202410-Q 4/27/2024
1312024307202410-Q 1/27/2024
103120231215202310-K 10/28/2023
7312023906202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023607202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023308202310-Q 1/28/2023
103120221216202210-K 10/29/2022
7312022907202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022608202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022309202210-Q 1/29/2022
103120211217202110-K 10/30/2021