Ciena (CIEN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $197.81 | Market Cap: $28.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Ciena (CIEN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $197.81Market Cap: $28.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 168%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 168%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 168% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CIEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
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Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CIEN Return | 24% | 46% | -34% | -12% | 88% | 131% | 358% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 39% | -4% | -0% | 24% | 58% | 223% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CIEN Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 42% | 83% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 42% | 58% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CIEN Max Drawdown | -19% | -8% | -49% | -21% | -3% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -9% | -35% | -24% | -19% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, LITE, PI, AVT, IRDM. See CIEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CIEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 793 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 380 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 856.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4081 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CSCO, LITE, PI, AVT, IRDM
In The Past
Ciena's stock fell -49.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -49.5% loss requires a 98.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Better Bet Than Ciena Stock: ANET, UI Deliver More | Actionable | ||
| Is Arista Networks a Better Buy Than Ciena? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Is Ciena Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| How Does Ciena Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than CIEN Stock: Pay Less Than Ciena To Get More From NVDA, MSFT | |||
| Better Bet Than CIEN Stock: Pay Less Than Ciena To Get More From ANET, MSI | |||
| CIEN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Ciena Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 55.9% in 2024 and 5.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Ciena (CIEN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ciena (CIEN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why ANET, UI Could Outperform Ciena Stock | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| ANET, UI Look Smarter Buy Than Ciena Stock | November 12th, 2025 | ||
| Is Arista Networks a Better Buy Than Ciena? | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| Better Value & Growth: ANET, UI Lead Ciena Stock | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CIEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | CIEN | Ciena | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.9% | -8.0% | -22.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | CIEN | Ciena | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.9% | -8.0% | -22.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ciena
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,192 |
| Op Inc LTM | 243 |
| FCF LTM | 319 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 230 |
| CFO LTM | 435 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 363 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9042025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3122025 | 10-Q 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12202024 | 10-K 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9042024 | 10-Q 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12152023 | 10-K 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3082023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12162022 | 10-K 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3092022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12172021 | 10-K 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |