Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $320.03 | Market Cap: $86.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $320.03Market Cap: $86.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | Key risksCDNS key risks include [1] intense competition from established rivals like Synopsys and Siemens EDA and [2] geopolitical tensions and export controls impacting growth in key markets such as China. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Key risksCDNS key risks include [1] intense competition from established rivals like Synopsys and Siemens EDA and [2] geopolitical tensions and export controls impacting growth in key markets such as China. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CDNS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual stock performance data and reasons for a specific -8.8% movement for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) during this time are not yet available.
However, based on available analyst reports and company statements made with projections into late 2025, here are some points regarding Cadence Design Systems' outlook and potential factors that *could* influence its stock performance, while acknowledging these are forward-looking statements or analyses from earlier in 2025 and cannot definitively explain a future actual decline:
1. Cadence Design Systems reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, exceeding analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue, and raising its full-year 2025 revenue growth outlook to approximately 14% year-over-year. This generally indicates positive momentum for the company.
2. In Q4 2024 (reported February 2025), Cadence provided a soft guidance for 2025, with projected revenue growth of 11-12% and non-GAAP EPS growth of 12%, which was below analysts' consensus at the time and led to a stock decline of 10% in February 2025. This earlier guidance from the beginning of 2025 could set a cautious tone for the year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDNS Return | 97% | 37% | -14% | 70% | 10% | 6% | 359% |
| Peers Return | 55% | 31% | -17% | 33% | 7% | 14% | 174% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDNS Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 33% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 60% | 40% | 58% | 58% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDNS Max Drawdown | -22% | -12% | -28% | -2% | -9% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -9% | -36% | -14% | -25% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SNPS, KEYS, ADSK, RMBS, CEVA. See CDNS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDNS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 178 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 828.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2713 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SNPS, ADSK, KEYS, RMBS, MBLY
In The Past
Cadence Design Systems's stock fell -29.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -29.6% loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CDNS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.7% | 8.7% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 39.9% | 27.1% | -7.5% |
| 10312022 | CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 39.1% | 58.4% | -5.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.7% | 8.7% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 39.9% | 27.1% | -7.5% |
| 10312022 | CDNS | Cadence Design Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 39.1% | 58.4% | -5.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cadence Design Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 249.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 51.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,228 |
| Op Inc LTM | 997 |
| FCF LTM | 1,359 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,201 |
| CFO LTM | 1,492 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,348 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 51.5 |
| P/S | 11.3 |
| P/EBIT | 41.8 |
| P/E | 50.4 |
| P/CFO | 33.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Electronic Design Automation (EDA) | 3,108 | ||||
| Semiconductor Intellectual Property (IP) | 491 | 401 | 366 | 355 | 287 |
| System Design and Analysis | 491 | 401 | 309 | 254 | 198 |
| Custom Integrated Circuit (IC) Design and Simulation | 735 | 647 | 634 | 551 | |
| Digital Integrated Circuit (IC) Design and Signoff | 935 | 816 | 736 | 661 | |
| Functional Verification, including Emulation and Prototyping Hardware | 868 | 675 | 558 | 507 | |
| Services | 222 | 175 | 146 | 132 | |
| Total | 4,090 | 3,562 | 2,988 | 2,683 | 2,336 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2025 | -2.9% | -4.6% | -13.6% |
| 7/28/2025 | 9.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% |
| 2/18/2025 | -8.8% | -17.2% | -13.9% |
| 10/28/2024 | 12.5% | 14.5% | 22.7% |
| 7/22/2024 | -1.4% | -9.8% | -2.0% |
| 4/22/2024 | -1.1% | -0.9% | 1.8% |
| 2/12/2024 | -4.0% | -4.7% | -0.1% |
| 10/23/2023 | -1.0% | -2.6% | 12.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -3.2% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 12.5% | 14.5% | 22.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.8% | -17.2% | -19.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10232023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10242022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4252022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
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