Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $65.79 | Market Cap: $273.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $65.79Market Cap: $273.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 29 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Key risksNFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 29 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Key risksNFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Netflix (NFLX) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lower-than-expected fiscal Q4 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.
Netflix's guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 revenue was $13.44 billion, falling 0.5% below analyst estimates of $13.51 billion. Additionally, the company's GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 was $0.67, missing analyst estimates by 7.9%. This soft outlook raised investor concerns about slowing growth.
2. Reduction in fiscal year 2026 advertising revenue forecast.
Netflix significantly trimmed its full-year 2026 advertising revenue outlook to approximately $2.7 billion, a $300 million reduction from its previous forecast of $3 billion. This downward revision was attributed to a slower-than-expected rollout of ad product capabilities and disappointed investors who viewed the ad-supported tier as a key growth driver.
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Netflix (NFLX) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lower-than-expected fiscal Q4 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.
Netflix's guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 revenue was $13.44 billion, falling 0.5% below analyst estimates of $13.51 billion. Additionally, the company's GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 was $0.67, missing analyst estimates by 7.9%. This soft outlook raised investor concerns about slowing growth.
2. Reduction in fiscal year 2026 advertising revenue forecast.
Netflix significantly trimmed its full-year 2026 advertising revenue outlook to approximately $2.7 billion, a $300 million reduction from its previous forecast of $3 billion. This downward revision was attributed to a slower-than-expected rollout of ad product capabilities and disappointed investors who viewed the ad-supported tier as a key growth driver.
3. Slowest revenue growth in three years and declining per-member engagement.
The company's fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth of 11.8% year-over-year, while meeting expectations at $12.87 billion, marked its slowest pace in nearly three years for a July-to-September period. Furthermore, per-member viewing hours reportedly fell from 66 hours/month in the first half of fiscal 2023 to approximately 49 hours/month in the first half of fiscal 2026, indicating a struggle to maintain user engagement amidst increasing competition from alternative platforms.
4. Significant insider selling.
Company insiders executed transactions resulting in approximately $13.1 million of stock sales over the past 90 days, exceeding the $5 million threshold for consideration. This insider selling activity, particularly by executives and directors, occurred amidst an 11.8% stock decline and could signal a lack of confidence in the short-term performance of the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.8% change in NFLX stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 71.40 | 65.85 | -7.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,890 | 49,735 | 6.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.5% | 29.7% | 4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 18.4 | -18.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,223 | 4,134 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -7.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 10.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | -1.5% | 55.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.5% change in NFLX stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.15 | 65.85 | -31.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 45,183 | 49,735 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 29.7% | 22.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.0 | 18.4 | -50.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,229 | 4,134 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -31.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.2% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -4.6% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.1% change in NFLX stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 119.89 | 65.85 | -45.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,693 | 49,735 | 19.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.6% | 29.7% | 20.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.7 | 18.4 | -62.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,252 | 4,134 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -45.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 9.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | -10.1% | 41.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.4% change in NFLX stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 124.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.76 | 65.85 | 74.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,126 | 49,735 | 54.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 29.7% | 124.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.5 | 18.4 | -53.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,439 | 4,134 | 7.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 74.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.9% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 66.0% | 47.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NFLX Return | 11% | -51% | 65% | 83% | 5% | -28% | 24% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -42% | 37% | 16% | 35% | 6% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NFLX Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 32% | 67% | 55% | 52% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NFLX Max Drawdown | -17% | -72% | -28% | -13% | -31% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -49% | -24% | -26% | -30% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -72.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 257.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 668 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix, Inc. operates as a leading global entertainment company, primarily recognized for its comprehensive streaming service. The company provides an extensive array of TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games, spanning various genres and languages, which are delivered directly to subscribers over the internet.
The core of Netflix's business involves enabling members worldwide to access its content library through a wide range of internet-connected devices, such as televisions, digital video players, set-top boxes, and mobile devices. In addition to its predominant streaming platform, Netflix also maintains a DVDs-by-mail membership service, though this particular offering is exclusively available to customers within the United States.
Netflix serves a substantial international market, with approximately 222 million paid members distributed across 190 countries. This expansive global footprint highlights its significant presence as a premier provider of digital entertainment, catering to a vast and diverse customer base across nearly every continent.
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- Like Blockbuster, but for streaming movies and TV shows instantly to your devices instead of renting physical discs.
- A global cable TV provider, but all content is on-demand and streamed over the internet.
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- Streaming Content Subscription: Provides access to TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games for streaming across internet-connected devices.
- DVDs-by-Mail Subscription: Offers physical DVD and Blu-ray rentals delivered by mail within the United States.
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Netflix (NFLX) sells primarily to individuals.
Its major customer categories are:
- Global Streaming Subscribers: This represents the vast majority of Netflix's customer base across 190 countries, who subscribe to consume TV series, documentaries, and feature films via various internet-connected devices.
- Mobile Gamers: A distinct segment of subscribers who engage with the mobile games offered by Netflix, representing a newer form of content consumption within their ecosystem.
- DVD-by-Mail Subscribers (United States): A specific, geographically limited customer segment in the United States that utilizes Netflix's legacy DVD rental service.
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Amazon (AMZN)
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Reed Hastings, Chairman
Reed Hastings co-founded Netflix in 1997 and served as CEO for 25 years before transitioning to Executive Chairman in 2023. Prior to Netflix, he founded Pure Software in 1991, which he took public and sold in 1997. Hastings is an active educational philanthropist and previously served as President of the California State Board of Education. He also sits on the boards of private companies Bloomberg and Anthropic.
Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO
Ted Sarandos has served as co-chief executive officer of Netflix since July 2020. He joined Netflix in 2000 and, prior to becoming co-CEO, was the company's chief content officer, overseeing its original programming and entertainment efforts. His early career involved managing retail video stores and serving as Vice President of Product and Merchandising for Video City/West Coast Video, a chain of almost 500 stores, until March 2000. Sarandos was responsible for initiating Netflix's first round of original programming.
Greg Peters, Co-CEO
Greg Peters was named co-CEO of Netflix in January 2023. Before this, he held roles as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Product Officer at Netflix. Peters joined Netflix in 2008 as International Development Officer. Prior to his tenure at Netflix, he was Senior Vice President of consumer electronics products for Macrovision Solutions Corp. He notably led Netflix's expansion into Asia, including its launch in Japan in 2015, and has been a key driver behind the company's ventures into gaming and the introduction of its ad-supported subscription tier.
Spencer Neumann, Chief Financial Officer
Spencer Neumann was appointed CFO of Netflix in January 2019. His previous experience includes serving as CFO of Activision Blizzard and holding various positions at The Walt Disney Company, such as CFO and Executive Vice President of Global Guest Experience of Walt Disney Parks and Resorts. Neumann also worked at the private equity firms of Providence Equity Partners and Summit Partners. He currently serves on the board of Adobe.
Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer
Bela Bajaria has served as Netflix's Chief Content Officer since January 2023, overseeing the company's global television and film content strategy. She joined Netflix in 2016, initially responsible for unscripted and scripted series. Before joining Netflix, Bajaria was President of Universal Television. She began her career in the entertainment industry as an assistant in the movies and miniseries department at CBS in 1996. Under her leadership, Netflix has expanded its content offerings to include a diverse range of genres and formats, including live events and sports.
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The key risks to Netflix's business include:
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Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Netflix faces significant competition from a growing number of streaming services, including major players like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+. This competitive landscape has led to increased content spending across the industry, making it challenging for Netflix to acquire and retain subscribers, particularly in mature markets such as the United States where its penetration is already high. Competitors' strategies, such as content bundling and leveraging strong franchises, also contribute to churn risk and make subscriber retention more difficult for Netflix.
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Escalating Content Costs and Margin Compression: To compete effectively and attract new subscribers, Netflix continues to invest heavily in producing and acquiring original content. This substantial and increasing content expenditure, which can exceed billions of dollars annually, is a significant financial burden. While essential for differentiation, these rising content costs can lead to a reduction in operating margins and impact overall profitability, especially if subscriber growth does not keep pace.
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Slowing Subscriber Growth and Monetization Challenges: Netflix has experienced a slowdown in subscriber growth in established markets, like the U.S. and Canada, attributed partly to market saturation and previous price increases. Although efforts like cracking down on password sharing have shown short-term benefits in boosting revenue and subscriber numbers, there is an inherent risk of alienating existing users. Furthermore, the effectiveness of new monetization strategies, such as ad-supported tiers, in fully offsetting the deceleration of premium subscriber growth remains a concern for the company.
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The proliferation of well-funded, content-rich streaming services from major media companies (e.g., Disney+, Max, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+) poses a clear emerging threat. This intense competition for subscribers and content leads to escalating content production and acquisition costs, increased subscriber churn due to market saturation and subscription fatigue, and the withdrawal of popular licensed content by studios for their own platforms.
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Netflix's main products and services operate within several addressable markets, primarily global video streaming and mobile gaming, and a smaller, declining market for DVD-by-mail services in the United States.
Global Video Streaming / Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD)
The global Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) market, which encompasses Netflix's core streaming service, was valued at approximately USD 128.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 209.35 billion by 2030, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5% over the forecast period. Another estimate places the global SVOD market at USD 130.2 billion in 2024, expecting it to expand to USD 237.4 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 9.8%. More broadly, the global video streaming market was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 21.5% from 2025 to 2030. Other analyses forecast the global video streaming market to reach USD 843.0 billion by 2033, from USD 137.9 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 22.3% from 2025 to 2033. The overall video on demand market was valued at USD 170.3 billion in 2024 and reached USD 198.3 billion in 2025.
Global Mobile Gaming
Netflix has expanded into mobile games, tapping into the global mobile gaming market. This market was valued at approximately USD 100.08 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 216.82 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.52% from 2025-2033. Another report estimates the global mobile gaming market size at USD 139.38 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 256.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2025 to 2030.
U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental
For its DVDs-by-mail membership services, Netflix operates within the U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental market. This market was valued at USD 630.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to be around USD 606.3 million in 2026. This market has experienced a decline, with revenue dropping at a CAGR of 9.0% through the five years to 2026.
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- Growth of Ad-Supported Tier: Netflix's ad-supported subscription tier is a significant driver, having reached 94 million subscribers globally by May 2025, a 34% increase from November 2024. This less-expensive option now accounts for 50% of all new Netflix subscribers. Netflix more than doubled its ad revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, to over $1.5 billion, and expects it to roughly double again in 2026 to about $3 billion.
- Paid Sharing Initiative: The strategic crackdown on password sharing has proven to be a major success, converting unauthorized viewers into paying subscribers. This initiative significantly bolstered subscriber numbers, adding 9.3 million new subscribers in Q1 2024 and 9 million new subscribers globally in Q3 2023.
- Price Increases and Average Revenue Per Membership (ARM) Growth: Netflix has been implementing price increases, and management expects continued growth in average revenue per membership (ARM) which contributes to overall revenue. While Q1 2024 saw modest ARM growth, the company expects it to continue throughout the year.
- Content Investment and Diversification: A strong and diverse content slate, including original programming, international productions, reality shows, live events, and sports, is crucial for attracting and retaining subscribers. Netflix is also expanding its content offerings to include video podcasts and live sports, such as the World Baseball Classic in Japan and MLB rights.
- Gaming Monetization: While Netflix's gaming strategy primarily focuses on enhancing subscriber engagement and retention, the company is exploring new monetization strategies for its gaming platform. Potential revenue streams could include in-game purchases and premium gaming subscriptions, moving beyond the current model where most games are free of in-app purchases.
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[1] Share Repurchases
- Netflix reported net common equity repurchases of approximately $22.772 billion in 2025.
- Net common equity repurchases were approximately $5.431 billion in 2024.
- In 2023, net common equity repurchases amounted to approximately $5.875 billion.
[2] Share Issuance
- Netflix's shares outstanding declined by 1.11% in 2025 to 4.344 billion, indicating net share repurchases over issuance.
- In 2024, shares outstanding decreased by 2.28% to 4.393 billion, also reflecting net repurchases.
- Shares outstanding saw a 0.4% decline in 2023, reaching 4.495 billion, suggesting a continuation of net share repurchases.
[4] Outbound Investments
- Netflix did not report meaningful long-term investments (outbound) for 2025, 2024, or 2023, with figures recorded as $0B for these years.
[5] Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures peaked in December 2025 at $688.2 million.
- In 2024, capital expenditures were approximately $439.5 million.
- Capital expenditures were $348.6 million in 2023, marking its five-year low.
Peer Outperformance in Movies & Entertainment
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | Netflix | 15.0% | 18.4x | -39.8% | 60.1% | -0.9% | — |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment | 11.5% | 299.8x | 13.5% | 123.2% | 72.1% | +73pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -20.3% | 9.3% | 31.9% | ECHO 269% · TMUS 32% |
| Publishing | 5 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 23.0% | NYT 34% · NWSA 33% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -14.5% | -3.1% | -21.9% | GSAT 250% · AD 133% · TDS 111% |
| Movies & Entertainment ← | 24 | 7.8% | 44.0% | -29.6% | IMAX 144% · MSGS 124% · CNK 98% |
| Advertising | 18 | -29.1% | -4.9% | -68.5% | APP 176% · OMC 39% · STGW 0% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -29.5% | 15.7% | -69.4% | IRDM 17% · LUMN -60% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -18.3% | -14.7% | -70.9% | FOXA 67% · NXST 30% · SIRI -50% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 32 | -38.0% | -29.2% | -72.0% | GOOGL 135% · META 100% · CARG -7% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -42.3% | -12.7% | -73.5% | TTWO 13% · RBLX -37% · PINS -62% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 112.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 272.8 |
| Rev LTM | 123,005 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,101 |
| FCF LTM | 11,375 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 15,401 |
| CFO LTM | 31,727 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 30,041 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 272.8 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 19.8 |
| P/CFO | 16.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 45,183 | 39,001 | 33,723 | ||
| DVD revenues | 146 | 182 | |||
| Streaming revenues | 31,470 | 29,515 | |||
| Total | 45,183 | 39,001 | 33,723 | 31,616 | 29,698 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 13,327 | 10,418 | 6,954 | ||
| DVD revenues | 212 | 248 | |||
| Domestic Streaming | 2,583 | 2,280 | |||
| International Streaming | 662 | 227 | |||
| Other operating expenses | -1,852 | -1,916 | |||
| Total | 13,327 | 10,418 | 6,954 | 1,605 | 839 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 10,981 | 8,712 | 5,408 |
| Total | 10,981 | 8,712 | 5,408 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $65.85 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 272.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/23/2002 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -43.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $74.27 | $82.27 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.3% | -20.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.2% | 35.7% |
| Downside Capture | 52.64 | 61.87 |
| Upside Capture | 11.97 | -10.20 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 8.2% | 8.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | 1.07 | 0.59 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | 0.09 | 0.23 | -0.13 | -0.00 | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | -0.01 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | 72% | 118% | 66% | -9% | 0% | 77% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 29 | 53 | 110 | 378 |
| Down Capture | 293% | 166% | 93% | 89% | 84% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 25 | 35 | 73 | 142 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -41.1% | 35.7% | -1.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -8.0% | 16.2% | -0.70 | 41.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 8.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.8% | 28.5% | -0.11 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | 2.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.9% | 0.06 | 18.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.8% | 43.5% | -0.54 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 0.9% | 43.8% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.7% | 21.0% | 0.23 | 58.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 24.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.7% | 51.7% | 0.29 | 25.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 20.7% | 41.5% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.6% | 22.1% | 0.42 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 46.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 23.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.4% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | -5.3% | ||
| 7/16/2026 | -7.3% | -7.3% | 5.1% |
| 4/16/2026 | -9.7% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
| 1/20/2026 | -0.8% | -2.6% | -11.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | -10.1% | -11.2% | -11.4% |
| 7/17/2025 | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% |
| 4/17/2025 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 22.5% |
| 10/17/2024 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 17 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -7.4% | -11.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.1% | 20.8% | 34.9% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | -5.3% | ||
| 7/16/2026 | -7.3% | -7.3% | 5.1% |
| 4/16/2026 | -9.7% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
| 1/20/2026 | -0.8% | -2.6% | -11.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | -10.1% | -11.2% | -11.4% |
| 7/17/2025 | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% |
| 4/17/2025 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 22.5% |
| 10/17/2024 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
| 7/18/2024 | -1.5% | -1.4% | 4.8% |
| 4/18/2024 | -9.1% | -7.5% | 1.7% |
| 1/23/2024 | 1.3% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| 10/18/2023 | 16.1% | 18.8% | 34.9% |
| 7/19/2023 | -8.4% | -11.5% | -15.6% |
| 4/18/2023 | -3.2% | -3.3% | 1.9% |
| 1/19/2023 | -3.2% | 12.8% | 7.5% |
| 10/18/2022 | 13.1% | 20.8% | 27.1% |
| 7/19/2022 | 7.3% | 6.1% | 19.6% |
| 4/19/2022 | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
| 1/20/2022 | -1.5% | -30.3% | -25.0% |
| 10/19/2021 | -2.2% | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| 7/20/2021 | -3.3% | -2.3% | -1.7% |
| 4/20/2021 | -7.4% | -8.0% | -11.3% |
| 1/19/2021 | 0.8% | 11.8% | 10.7% |
| 10/20/2020 | -6.9% | -6.9% | -8.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 17 | 14 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -7.4% | -11.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.1% | 20.8% | 34.9% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/20/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/21/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 13.44 Bil | 4.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 12.86 Bil for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.5% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 F/X Neutral Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 3.50 Bil | -18.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.27 Bil for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 26.0% | -7.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 33.2% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Net Income | Reported | 2.79 Bil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.45 Bil for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.67 | -18.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.82 for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 Cash Content Spend to Amortization Ratio | Reported | 1.1 | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 51.10 Bil | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 13.0% | ||||||
| 2026 F/X Neutral Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Ad Revenue | Reported | 2.70 Bil | -10.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Income Growth | Reported | 20.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 31.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 F/X Neutral Operating Margin | Reported | 31.4% | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 12.00 Bil | -4.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 12.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 12.86 Bil | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 4.27 Bil | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 4.11 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 33.2% | 0.6% | Higher New | Actual: 32.6% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Net Income | Reported | 3.45 Bil | 3.8% | Higher New | Actual: 3.33 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 EPS | Reported | 0.82 | 5.1% | Higher New | Actual: 0.78 for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 51.00 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Ads Revenue | Reported | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Income Growth | Reported | 20.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 31.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 12.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 50.70 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 51.70 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Ad Revenue | Reported | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 31.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 12.50 Bil | 13.6% | Raised | Guidance: 11.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 12.57 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 4.11 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 32.6% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | Reported | 3.33 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | Reported | 0.78 | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 12.16 Bil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 11.96 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 3.91 Bil | 36.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.86 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 32.1% | 8.2% | Higher New | Actual: 23.9% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Net Income | Reported | 3.26 Bil | 38.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.35 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.76 | -86.1% | Lower New | Actual: 5.45 for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 50.70 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 51.70 Bil | 13.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 45.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | ||||
| 2026 Ad Revenue Growth | Reported | 100.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 31.5% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 11.00 Bil | 22.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 75.27 | 720 | 54,194 | 185,164 | Form | |
| 2 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 76.26 | 720 | 54,907 | 187,600 | Form | |
| 3 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 77.60 | 720 | 55,872 | 190,896 | Form | |
| 4 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 75.79 | 9,248 | 700,907 | 5,592,324 | Form |
| 5 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 73.54 | 27,312 | 2,008,606 | 8,893,629 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 75.27 | 720 | 54,194 | 185,164 | Form | |
| 2 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 76.26 | 720 | 54,907 | 187,600 | Form | |
| 3 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 77.60 | 720 | 55,872 | 190,896 | Form | |
| 4 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 75.79 | 9,248 | 700,907 | 5,592,324 | Form |
| 5 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 73.54 | 27,312 | 2,008,606 | 8,893,629 | Form |
| 6 | Barton, Richard N | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 75.10 | 2,160 | 162,216 | 18,475 | Form | |
| 7 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 72.85 | 5,723 | 416,899 | 23,026,715 | Form |
| 8 | Sarandos, Theodore A | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 73.35 | 27,312 | 2,003,423 | 13,126,849 | Form |
| 9 | Sarandos, Theodore A | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 73.03 | 105,850 | 7,730,162 | 15,063,482 | Form |
| 10 | Smith, Bradford L | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 77.52 | 35,990 | 2,789,799 | 6,177,247 | Form | |
| 11 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 85.97 | 386,700 | 33,244,035 | 338,716 | Form | |
| 12 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.69 | 27,312 | 2,422,421 | 10,725,902 | Form |
| 13 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.95 | 9,253 | 823,075 | 6,563,516 | Form |
| 14 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 93.13 | 407,550 | 37,956,938 | 366,950 | Form | |
| 15 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 95.49 | 420,550 | 40,156,465 | 376,213 | Form | |
| 16 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 95.50 | 57,260 | 5,468,330 | 7,046,658 | Form |
| 17 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 83.24 | 27,312 | 2,273,454 | 10,166,949 | Form |
| 18 | Willems, Cletus R | Chief Global Affairs Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 82.67 | 3,136 | Form | ||
| 19 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 81.06 | 5,727 | 464,231 | 25,623,098 | Form |
| 20 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 81.27 | 9,248 | 751,598 | 5,996,773 | Form |
| 21 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 83.63 | 390,970 | 32,695,591 | 329,490 | Form | |
| 22 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 82.94 | 105,781 | 8,773,028 | 10,129,774 | Form |
| 23 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 88.11 | 23,439 | 2,065,206 | 27,851,508 | Form |
| 24 | Smith, Bradford L | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 88.86 | 31,790 | 2,824,821 | 7,081,158 | Form | |
| 25 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 91.67 | 426,290 | 39,077,470 | 361,175 | Form | |
| 26 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 108.43 | 375,470 | 40,712,436 | 427,217 | Form | |
| 27 | Willems, Cletus R | Chief Global Affairs Officer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 1100.33 | 238 | Form | ||
| 28 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1095.68 | 2,027 | 2,220,943 | 14,003,886 | Form |
| 29 | Sarandos, Theodore A | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1092.08 | 2,027 | 2,213,639 | 16,564,613 | Form |
| 30 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1099.84 | 31,462 | 34,603,191 | 34,765,968 | Form |
| 31 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1093.78 | 695 | 760,177 | 4,026,204 | Form |
| 32 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1121.67 | 240 | 269,200 | 4,140,072 | Form |
| 33 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1097.56 | 2,360 | 2,590,251 | 4,314,524 | Form |
| 34 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1121.51 | 40,374 | 45,279,704 | 441,874 | Form | |
| 35 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 1172.51 | 2,600 | 3,048,515 | 4,327,719 | Form |
| 36 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 1171.92 | 42,176 | 49,427,029 | 461,738 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton Investment Management | $225.3 Mil | 28.3% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $1.5 Bil | 15.4% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $44.2 Mil | 10.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Islander Capital Partners, L.P. | $19.2 Mil | 7.6% | 15 | TRIM -24.2% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $104.4 Mil | 7.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 6.8% | 24 | TRIM -15.5% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $28.9 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $17.3 Mil | 5.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Northern Right Capital Management, L.P. | $13.7 Mil | 4.9% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| Concord Investment Counsel Inc. | $12.5 Mil | 4.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $644.9 Mil | 4.2% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $20.1 Mil | 4.2% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $10.2 Mil | 3.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $64.1 Mil | 2.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 3.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $24.9 Mil | 2.5% | 35 | New | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $17.3 Mil | 5.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Northern Right Capital Management, L.P. | $13.7 Mil | 4.9% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Eleva Capital SAS | $8.4 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 2.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 3.7% | 40 | ADD +89.0% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $17.8 Mil | 2.4% | 23 | ADD +42.1% | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $133.1 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $406.2 Mil | 4.6% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $60.9 Mil | 3.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Capital Impact Advisors, LLC | $29.0 Mil | 2.3% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Dock Street Asset Management Inc | $22.8 Mil | 2.1% | 47 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $22.1 Mil | 4.6% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $19.5 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Light Street Capital Management, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.9% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ariose Capital Management Ltd | $17.8 Mil | 6.0% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.1% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $11.2 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 2.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Horiko Capital Management LLC | $7.1 Mil | 1.6% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Islander Capital Partners, L.P. | $19.2 Mil | 7.6% | 15 | TRIM -24.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 6.8% | 24 | TRIM -15.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $1.5 Bil | 15.4% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $644.9 Mil | 4.2% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Barton Investment Management | $225.3 Mil | 28.3% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $133.1 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $104.4 Mil | 7.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $64.1 Mil | 2.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $44.2 Mil | 10.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. | $38.5 Mil | 3.7% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $28.9 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 3.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $25.0 Mil | 2.9% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $24.9 Mil | 2.5% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $23.5 Mil | 2.7% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
NFLX Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Netflix's trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded to 31.3%, but this profitability is overshadowed by three consecutive quarters of revenue growth deceleration. Recent guidance cuts for Q4 profit and full-year advertising revenue, coupled with an admission of needing better U.S. execution, create significant uncertainty. The investment case now hinges on a new content head and ad-tier expansion delivering a turnaround.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Subscription (Recurring Revenue) with an emerging Advertising component.(Number of Members x Average Revenue per Member) + Advertising Revenue Operating leverage achieved by growing revenue from a global subscriber base over a large, but relatively fixed, content amortization expense.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The business is in a challenging transition, with slowing growth and execution stumbles clouding a highly profitable core operation.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded 2.2 percentage points to 31.3%.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is $11.4 billion.
- Recent price increases have 'gone well' with churn improving year-over-year in Q3.
- International regions including APAC, LATAM, and EMEA are showing 'great results'.
PRIMARY RISK
Three straight quarters of decelerating revenue growth, a 10% cut to full-year ad revenue guidance, and management's admission of needing 'better execution in the U.S.' suggest the slowdown may not be temporary. Intense competition and market saturation could be creating a permanent, lower-growth reality for the business.
- Full-year 2026 ad revenue guidance was lowered by 10.0%.
- Guidance for Q4 2026 operating income was lowered by 18.0%.
- Operating expenses grew 17.4% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 14.7%.
- Accounts receivable grew 22% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth of 11.8%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 11.8% year-over-year for the quarter ended 9/30/2026 - Decelerating | While still showing positive sequential growth, the year-over-year growth rate has been consistently slowing, indicating a clear deceleration in the top-line trend. Management noted in a prior quarter's call that some quarter-to-quarter chop can occur due to back-half weighting in the prior year. |
| Advertising Business Performance | Full-year 2026 ad revenue guidance was lowered by 10.0%. - Decelerating | Management acknowledged being 'a bit behind our aggressive target for the year' due to delays in rolling out new ad products and partner integrations. While absolute growth remains very strong, the lowered guidance indicates a miss versus internal expectations for this key growth initiative. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Operating Margin | 31.3% (as of 9/30/2026) | This measures the company's profitability over the last year. The margin expanded by 2.2 percentage points from 29.1% a year earlier, signaling improving operating leverage. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Free Cash Flow | $11.4 billion (as of 9/30/2026) | This represents the cash generated by the business after capital expenditures, indicating its ability to fund operations, investments, and shareholder returns. |
Execution Stumble vs. Structural Saturation
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the new content chief will fix U.S. engagement and the ad business, still growing over 80%, will re-accelerate the top line. They see recent price hikes with lower churn as proof of enduring pricing power.
CORE TENSION
Can the ad business's >80% growth and a content reset offset the three-quarter revenue deceleration, which the market punished with a -7% post-earnings stock drop?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence, including broad guidance cuts for Q4 profit and full-year revenue, favors the bear case. The bull thesis now requires new initiatives to prove themselves.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see decelerating revenue, a 10% cut to ad guidance, and rising costs as signs of saturation in a hyper-competitive market. They believe the model's best growth years are over, limiting future upside.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 2026 | Debt Maturity and Funding Watch: Commentary on capital allocation, refinancing plans, and the pace of share repurchases in the next earnings report. |
November 2026 | Senior Note Maturity Watch: A $1.0 billion tranche of 4.375% Senior Notes is scheduled to mature. |
Q4 | Fourth Quarter Content Slate Watch: The Q4 content slate includes the final season of Emily in Paris, a recently discussed product S4, and NFL games. |
1/18/2027 | Weak Forward Guidance Watch: First quarter 2027 guidance, particularly for revenue growth, operating margin, and any commentary on U.S. engagement trends. |
1/18/2027 | Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its Q4 and full-year 2026 financial results. |
1/27/2027 - 2/3/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Subscriber growth, average revenue per user, and streaming engagement commentary from DIS, AMZN, AAPL, and CMCSA. |
2/1/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Walt Disney (DIS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
THIS_QUARTER | Content Slate Underperformance Watch: Management commentary on the performance of key Q4 titles and any shifts in content strategy under new leadership. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-20 | Weak Q3 Results and Guidance Details: The company reported Q3 results and issued a weak Q4 forecast, lowering guidance for revenue growth, operating income, and net income, resulting in a -7.0% stock reaction. | -6.9% $69.85 -> $65.04 |
2026-10-15 | Content Leadership Shake-Up Details: The company named former Disney executive Peter Rice as its new content chief, following the departure of Bela Bajaria. The film division head also announced an exit the same week. | -0.1% $70.57 -> $70.53 |
2026-09-18 | Analyst Downgrade on Engagement Details: An analyst note in September downgraded the stock, citing concerns over 'weaker engagement and content' that could pressure margins and valuation. | -2.6% $75.31 -> $73.36 |
2026-07-16 | Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock experienced a -6.0% two-day reaction following its Q2 earnings report, continuing a trend of negative market responses to quarterly results. | -6.4% $73.68 -> $68.95 |
2026-05-20 | Ad-Tier Viewership Milestone Details: A press report in May stated that the company's ad-supported tier surpassed 250 million monthly viewers globally, a significant increase from 94 million a year prior. | -0.0% $89.33 -> $89.30 |
2026-04-16 | Negative Q1 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -10.0% around the Q1 earnings call. A press report noted a 9% dip post-results, citing a softer-than-expected guide. | -9.7% $107.71 -> $97.31 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: NFLX trades at roughly 35% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (3.2x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DIS - Walt Disney
Prestige Content & IPDisney possesses a powerful, multi-generational IP flywheel that translates stories across theatrical, streaming, consumer products, and theme parks, creating a hard-to-replicate advantage in monetizing prestige content.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Bundled Value PropositionAmazon's Prime membership bundles streaming video with a host of other high-value services like free shipping, creating a comprehensive value proposition that is difficult for a pure-play media company to compete with on price.
A global, direct-to-consumer content studio using its scale and technology to monetize a vast library of original and licensed entertainment through subscriptions and advertising.
Netflix's core flywheel involves investing in exclusive original content to attract and retain a global subscriber base, which it monetizes through recurring monthly fees and a growing advertising business. This scale allows it to spread content costs globally, driving margin expansion. The key to the model is the ability to consistently produce culturally relevant hits that justify pricing power and keep churn low in a hyper-competitive market.
Sustained double-digit revenue growth, continued operating margin expansion, successful execution of price increases without significant churn, and strong performance of the advertising tier and new content initiatives like live sports.
Continued revenue growth deceleration, inability to expand margins, high churn following price increases, or a prolonged slate of underperforming content that fails to drive engagement.
The performance of a single film or series, unless it indicates a broader trend in content quality or strategy execution. Short-term stock price volatility around non-earnings news.
Repricing Catalyst
Recent weak guidance for Q4 profit and full-year advertising revenue, coupled with senior executive departures, has intensified investor anxiety and led to a negative stock reaction following the Q3 2026 earnings report.
Single Segment
$48.4B TTM (100% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
Netflix sells streaming entertainment services, including TV series, films, games, and live programming, directly to a global consumer member base.
Who Pays & How
Members pay a monthly fee for access to a large, on-demand library of content. The company's strategy is to be the "must-have entertainment service" by offering compelling, exclusive original content that attracts new members and is the last service existing members would cancel.
Competition
Netflix — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Movies & Entertainment Resources |
| Deadline |
| IndieWire |
| Screen Daily |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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