T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $207.73 | Market Cap: $233.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $207.73Market Cap: $233.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Wireless Telecommunication Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TMUS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide specific key points explaining a -16.8% stock movement for T-Mobile US (TMUS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. My search for actual stock performance and news within this future timeframe did not yield information about a -16.8% drop. However, based on the provided search results which include some information up to December 2025, here are some general points that indicate potential movements and market sentiment for TMUS around that period, though none confirm a specific -16.8% decline. **1. T-Mobile's Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Market Reaction.** T-Mobile reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS. Despite exceeding revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, the stock experienced an intraday fall of approximately 3% to $217.23 on October 24, 2025, with some reports noting a negative reaction in pre-market trading due to EPS falling short of analyst expectations, overshadowing strong operational performance and record customer growth. **2. Analyst Rating Changes and Market Sentiment.** In early December 2025, KeyBanc upgraded T-Mobile US from "Underweight" to "Sector Weight," suggesting a more balanced risk/reward profile as concerns about structural, cyclical, and company-specific challenges were believed to be adequately reflected in the stock's valuation. Despite this upgrade, the stock was trading lower in early December, with investors weighing analyst upgrades against modest near-term estimate cuts and upcoming investor events. **3. Competitive Landscape and 5G Network Advantage.** T-Mobile continues to highlight its 5G network advantages, which are expected to maintain superior switching share and lower churn, contributing to strong financial performance even amidst slowing consumer spending. However, the company operates in a highly competitive and saturated U.S. wireless market, facing pressure from rivals like AT&T and Verizon. Concerns about a resurgent Verizon were noted by KeyBanc to be potentially overdone. **4. Acquisition Activity.** T-Mobile completed the acquisition of UScellular's wireless operations in the third quarter of 2025, a purchase valued at $4.3 billion, aimed at boosting its home broadband and fixed wireless portfolio. Earlier in July 2025, T-Mobile shares slipped by 0.6% after the Justice Department announced it would not prevent the company from closing on its proposed $4.4 billion acquisition of U.S. Cellular, a deal that had been under antitrust scrutiny. **5. Future Guidance and Outlook.** T-Mobile raised its full-year 2025 guidance across several key metrics following its Q3 2025 results, including total postpaid net customer additions, Core Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. The company also plans to unveil new 2027 guidance during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, scheduled for February 4, 2026, which is identified as a significant catalyst for the stock.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMUS Return | 74% | -14% | 21% | 15% | 40% | -3% | 181% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 17% | -18% | -11% | 47% | 50% | 118% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMUS Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 52% | 40% | 48% | 57% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMUS Max Drawdown | -5% | -21% | -12% | -10% | 0% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -33% | -33% | -25% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMCSA, LUMN, TMUS, SATS, GOGO. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 589.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3545 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CMCSA, LUMN, TMUS, SATS, GOGO
In The Past
T-Mobile US's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMUS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for T-Mobile US
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid revenues | 48,692 | 45,919 | 42,562 | 36,306 | 22,673 |
| Equipment revenues | 14,138 | 17,130 | 20,727 | 17,312 | 9,840 |
| Prepaid revenues | 9,767 | 9,857 | 9,733 | 9,421 | 9,543 |
| Wholesale and other service revenues | 4,782 | 5,547 | 6,074 | ||
| Other revenues | 1,179 | 1,118 | 1,022 | 690 | 658 |
| Other service revenues | 2,078 | ||||
| Wholesale revenues | 2,590 | 1,279 | |||
| Roaming and other service revenues | 1,005 | ||||
| Total | 78,558 | 79,571 | 80,118 | 68,397 | 44,998 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
