Tearsheet

T-Mobile US (TMUS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $207.73 | Market Cap: $233.4 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services

T-Mobile US (TMUS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $207.73
Market Cap: $233.4 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Wireless Services, and Telecom Infrastructure.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMUS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot provide specific key points explaining a -16.8% stock movement for T-Mobile US (TMUS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. My search for actual stock performance and news within this future timeframe did not yield information about a -16.8% drop. However, based on the provided search results which include some information up to December 2025, here are some general points that indicate potential movements and market sentiment for TMUS around that period, though none confirm a specific -16.8% decline. **1. T-Mobile's Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Market Reaction.** T-Mobile reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS. Despite exceeding revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, the stock experienced an intraday fall of approximately 3% to $217.23 on October 24, 2025, with some reports noting a negative reaction in pre-market trading due to EPS falling short of analyst expectations, overshadowing strong operational performance and record customer growth. **2. Analyst Rating Changes and Market Sentiment.** In early December 2025, KeyBanc upgraded T-Mobile US from "Underweight" to "Sector Weight," suggesting a more balanced risk/reward profile as concerns about structural, cyclical, and company-specific challenges were believed to be adequately reflected in the stock's valuation. Despite this upgrade, the stock was trading lower in early December, with investors weighing analyst upgrades against modest near-term estimate cuts and upcoming investor events. **3. Competitive Landscape and 5G Network Advantage.** T-Mobile continues to highlight its 5G network advantages, which are expected to maintain superior switching share and lower churn, contributing to strong financial performance even amidst slowing consumer spending. However, the company operates in a highly competitive and saturated U.S. wireless market, facing pressure from rivals like AT&T and Verizon. Concerns about a resurgent Verizon were noted by KeyBanc to be potentially overdone. **4. Acquisition Activity.** T-Mobile completed the acquisition of UScellular's wireless operations in the third quarter of 2025, a purchase valued at $4.3 billion, aimed at boosting its home broadband and fixed wireless portfolio. Earlier in July 2025, T-Mobile shares slipped by 0.6% after the Justice Department announced it would not prevent the company from closing on its proposed $4.4 billion acquisition of U.S. Cellular, a deal that had been under antitrust scrutiny. **5. Future Guidance and Outlook.** T-Mobile raised its full-year 2025 guidance across several key metrics following its Q3 2025 results, including total postpaid net customer additions, Core Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. The company also plans to unveil new 2027 guidance during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, scheduled for February 4, 2026, which is identified as a significant catalyst for the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMUS Return74%-14%21%15%40%-3%181%
Peers Return15%17%-18%-11%47%50%118%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMUS Win Rate75%42%58%58%83%40% 
Peers Win Rate47%52%40%48%57%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMUS Max Drawdown-5%-21%-12%-10%0%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-33%-33%-25%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMCSA, LUMN, TMUS, SATS, GOGO. See TMUS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMUSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-26.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven61 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven310 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven589.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3545 days1480 days

Compare to CMCSA, LUMN, TMUS, SATS, GOGO


In The Past

T-Mobile US's stock fell -32.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/16/2021. A -32.0% loss requires a 47.0% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMUS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for T-Mobile US

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMUSCMCSALUMNSATSGOGOMedian
NameT-Mobile.Comcast Lumen Te.EchoStar Gogo  
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Growth & Margins

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NameT-Mobile.Comcast Lumen Te.EchoStar Gogo  
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Valuation

TMUSCMCSALUMNSATSGOGOMedian
NameT-Mobile.Comcast Lumen Te.EchoStar Gogo  
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Returns

TMUSCMCSALUMNSATSGOGOMedian
NameT-Mobile.Comcast Lumen Te.EchoStar Gogo  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Postpaid revenues48,69245,91942,56236,30622,673
Equipment revenues14,13817,13020,72717,3129,840
Prepaid revenues9,7679,8579,7339,4219,543
Wholesale and other service revenues4,7825,5476,074  
Other revenues1,1791,1181,022690658
Other service revenues   2,078 
Wholesale revenues   2,5901,279
Roaming and other service revenues    1,005
Total78,55879,57180,11868,39744,998


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,295,704
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-11.1%
Average Daily Volume5,049,485
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.24
Basic Shares Quantity1,123,754,096
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024131202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021