Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $224.01 | Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $224.01Market Cap: $5.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Results (reported August 12, 2025). Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. reported a 1% increase in full-year revenues to $1.039 billion, but fiscal fourth-quarter revenues decreased by 10% to $204 million. The company also experienced a significant 90% decline in full-year operating income and an operating loss of $22.6 million in the fourth quarter, compared to an operating income in the prior year period.
2. Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Results (reported October 31, 2025). The company's revenues for the first quarter ended September 30, 2025, were $39.5 million, a 26% decrease year-over-year. This quarter saw an increased operating loss of $27.4 million and an adjusted operating loss of $20.8 million, significantly worse than the prior year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSGS Return | -12% | -6% | 10% | -1% | 24% | -2% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 4% | -7% | -14% | 27% | -2% | -10% | -7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSGS Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 41% | 40% | 47% | 37% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSGS Max Drawdown | -35% | -16% | -21% | -10% | -2% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -13% | -27% | -5% | -17% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BFAM, LOPE, UNF, DV, ANGX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1682 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2180 days | 120 days |
Compare to BFAM, LOPE, UNF, DV, ANGX
In The Past
Madison Square Garden Sports's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/1/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Madison Square Garden Sports
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 128.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,058 |
| Op Inc LTM | 132 |
| FCF LTM | 142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 123 |
| CFO LTM | 227 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 262 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.5 |
| P/E | 28.8 |
| P/CFO | 19.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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