Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $235.93 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $235.93Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% | ||
| Key risksMSGS key risks include [1] potential reduction in revenue and credit risk exposure from its specific media rights partner, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Key risksMSGS key risks include [1] potential reduction in revenue and credit risk exposure from its specific media rights partner, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following is an analysis of key points that would explain a hypothetical 18.9% stock movement for Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, based on the most recent available information leading up to and within that timeframe:
**1. Strong Fiscal 2024 Financial Performance:**
Madison Square Garden Sports reported record revenues exceeding $1 billion for fiscal year 2024, marking a 16% increase year-over-year. The company also achieved record operating income of $146.0 million and adjusted operating income of $172.2 million for the same fiscal year. The fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant outperformance, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06 far surpassing analyst estimates of 29 cents, and revenue of $227.25 million exceeding estimates by over 40%. These strong financial results, driven by robust demand for the Knicks and Rangers teams and their playoff appearances, would likely instill investor confidence and contribute to a positive stock movement.
**2. Expansive Strategic Partnerships:**
The MSG Family of Companies announced significant multi-year partnerships that expanded revenue streams and brand exposure. In September 2024, an expansive partnership with global technology powerhouse Lenovo and its subsidiary Motorola was announced, making them Official Partners for Madison Square Garden, the Knicks, and Rangers, among other assets. Subsequently, in March 2025, a renewed and expanded multi-year partnership with PepsiCo was unveiled, cementing its role as an Official Partner across MSG's premier sports and entertainment assets. Additional partnerships were also announced in 2025, including with Liquid Death in April and Snapple. These new and enhanced agreements would bolster the company's sponsorship and advertising revenues, positively impacting its financial outlook.
**3. Enhanced Fan Engagement Initiatives:**
MSG Sports continued its "Fan First" program for the 2024-2025 Knicks and Rangers seasons, an initiative designed to offer fans direct access to tickets at face value and bypass secondary market brokers. This strategy aims to foster greater fan loyalty and ensure ticket legitimacy, potentially strengthening direct-to-consumer revenue channels and overall brand value.
**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases:**
Analysts demonstrated increasing confidence in MSGS, with multiple firms issuing "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings and raising their price targets during 2025. For example, Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating in September 2025 and subsequently raised its price target to $290 in December 2025. These optimistic analyst outlooks, alongside a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from several Wall Street analysts, indicate a positive market perception and expectations for continued growth.
**5. Anticipation of Higher National Media Rights Fees:**
Looking ahead, the upcoming ramp-up in high-value national media rights fees for the NBA, slated to begin in fiscal year 2026, is anticipated to significantly benefit Madison Square Garden Sports. This increase is expected to offset recent adjustments in local media rights fees, positioning the company for an overall increase in recurring media revenue and supporting higher net margins over the next several years. This forward-looking revenue growth potential would serve as a key driver for investor interest and stock appreciation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSGS Return | -12% | -6% | 10% | -1% | 24% | 5% | 19% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 32% | 47% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSGS Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 38% | 56% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSGS Max Drawdown | -35% | -16% | -21% | -10% | -2% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -8% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BATRA, TKO, LYV, SPHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1682 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2180 days | 120 days |
Compare to BFAM, LOPE, UNF, DV, ANGX
In The Past
Madison Square Garden Sports's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/1/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Madison Square Garden Sports
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 138.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,054 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18 |
| FCF LTM | 42 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 81 |
| CFO LTM | 97 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 83 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 31.0 |
| P/E | -16.5 |
| P/CFO | 23.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/31/2025 | -4.6% | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| 8/12/2025 | -3.5% | -2.7% | 1.4% |
| 5/2/2025 | -2.8% | -1.0% | -1.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.6% | -4.6% | -8.2% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | -0.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.8% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.0% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.0% | -14.5% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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