Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $236.35 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $236.35Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.3 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 4748x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 167x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -26% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, I cannot provide an analysis of historical stock movements or the key points for a 20% stock change for Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) within this future timeframe. However, the search results provide some information regarding MSGS's fiscal year 2025 results, which ended on June 30, 2025, and some forward-looking statements.
Here are some key points from the available information, noting that these pertain to reported past fiscal performance and future expectations, not actual stock movements within the requested future period:
1. Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Results: Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. reported its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full-year results on August 12, 2025. For the full fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), the company reported revenues of $1,039.2 million, a 1% increase from the prior year. Operating income, however, decreased significantly to $14.8 million, a decrease of $131.2 million, and adjusted operating income decreased to $38.2 million, a decrease of $134.1 million, both compared to the prior year. The fiscal fourth quarter revenues decreased by 10% to $204.0 million, with an operating loss of $22.6 million.
2. Impact of Knicks' Playoff Run and Reduced Local Media Rights Fees: The fiscal 2025 fourth quarter was highlighted by the New York Knicks' participation in the NBA playoffs, which included nine home playoff games and culminated in an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. This was fewer than the fifteen combined home playoff games for the Knicks and Rangers in the prior year quarter. Additionally, the fiscal 2025 results reflected reductions in local media rights fees due to amendments to the Knicks' and Rangers' local media rights agreements with MSG Networks Inc., leading to a 28% and 18% reduction in annual rights fees, respectively, for the Knicks and Rangers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSGS Return | -12% | -6% | 10% | -1% | 24% | 4% | 17% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 32% | 46% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSGS Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 38% | 56% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSGS Max Drawdown | -35% | -16% | -21% | -10% | -2% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -8% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BATRA, TKO, LYV, SPHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1682 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2180 days | 120 days |
Compare to BFAM, LOPE, UNF, DV, ANGX
In The Past
Madison Square Garden Sports's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/1/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Madison Square Garden Sports
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 143.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,054 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18 |
| FCF LTM | 42 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 81 |
| CFO LTM | 97 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 83 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 31.0 |
| P/E | -16.5 |
| P/CFO | 23.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/31/2025 | -4.6% | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| 8/12/2025 | -3.5% | -2.7% | 1.4% |
| 5/2/2025 | -2.8% | -1.0% | -1.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.6% | -4.6% | -8.2% |
| 11/1/2024 | -0.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 8/13/2024 | -0.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.8% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 11.0% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.0% | -14.5% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |