Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $26.28 | Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $26.28Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 15% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% Key risksSIRI key risks include [1] a declining subscriber base as its core satellite model faces obsolescence, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4% |
| Key risksSIRI key risks include [1] a declining subscriber base as its core satellite model faces obsolescence, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance: Sirius XM reported robust first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026, surpassing analyst expectations with diluted earnings per share of $0.72 against an anticipated $0.70, and revenue reaching $2.09 billion compared to estimates of $2.07 billion. This performance represented a 20% year-over-year increase in net income to $245 million and a 6% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $666 million. The company also demonstrated significant cash flow generation, with free cash flow tripling to $171 million due to enhanced profitability and reduced capital expenditures. Furthermore, Sirius XM reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting approximately $8.5 billion in revenue, $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.35 billion in free cash flow, reinforcing investor confidence.
2. Strategic Partnership with YouTube for Audio Advertising: A key driver for the stock's upward trend was the announcement that SiriusXM Media became the exclusive U.S. audio advertising representative for YouTube. This partnership, set to launch in Fall 2026, is expected to significantly expand SiriusXM's advertising reach to an estimated 255 million monthly listeners. This development led to a notable analyst upgrade, with Rosenblatt raising its rating on Sirius XM stock to "Buy" and increasing its price target to $46.00 on April 23, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.4% change in SIRI stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 53.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.09 | 26.40 | 31.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,553 | 8,581 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.6% | 9.9% | -15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.8 | 10.5 | 53.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 337 | 336 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SIRI | 31.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.4% | 23.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.8% change in SIRI stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.15 | 26.40 | 24.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,553 | 8,581 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.6% | 9.9% | -15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.2 | 10.5 | 46.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 337 | 336 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SIRI | 24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 14.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | 1.4% | 28.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.6% change in SIRI stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.37 | 26.40 | 29.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,699 | 8,581 | -1.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 1.0 | 29.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 341 | 336 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SIRI | 29.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 20.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 22.7% | 26.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.7% change in SIRI stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.53 | 26.40 | -27.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,960 | 8,581 | -4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 10.5 | -38.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 389 | 336 | 15.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SIRI | -27.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 99.5% | 23.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIRI Return | 1% | -3% | -4% | -60% | -8% | 36% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 248% | -8% | -28% | -11% | -12% | -7% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIRI Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 35% | 40% | 47% | 40% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIRI Max Drawdown | -9% | -6% | -41% | -64% | -14% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -20% | -39% | -28% | -29% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OMC, NXST, SBGI, AMC, UONE. See SIRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1217 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Sirius XM's stock fell -23.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | SIRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1217 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5772.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1451 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Sirius XM's stock fell -23.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Sirius XM (SIRI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- It's like Cable TV for audio, providing a subscription bundle of diverse music, talk, sports, and news channels, often found in cars.
- It also operates Pandora, which is similar to Spotify for personalized music and podcast streaming.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Sirius XM Satellite Radio Subscription Service: Provides a wide array of audio content including music, sports, news, and entertainment through satellite radio and streaming applications for a recurring fee.
- Pandora Streaming Platform: An ad-supported and subscription-based personalized music, comedy, and podcast streaming service accessible across various devices.
- Location-Based Vehicle Services: Offers in-vehicle safety, security, convenience, and diagnostic features through wireless connectivity.
- Data & Infotainment Services: Delivers real-time information such as traffic, graphical weather, fuel prices, and sports scores to vehicles, boats, and planes.
- Business Music Solutions: Supplies commercial-free music programming and channels for offices, restaurants, and other business establishments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sirius XM (SIRI) primarily sells its services to individuals. Based on the company description, its major customer categories are:1. In-Vehicle Satellite Radio Subscribers: Individuals who subscribe to Sirius XM's satellite radio service for a wide range of audio content (music, sports, entertainment, news, traffic, weather, etc.) and related data/location-based services, primarily consumed through their vehicle's satellite radio system.
2. Digital Streaming Listeners/Subscribers (Pandora & SiriusXM App): Individuals who access Sirius XM and Pandora's content (personalized music, comedy, podcasts) through streaming via mobile devices, home devices, computers, and connected car platforms. This category includes both users of Pandora's ad-supported tier and premium subscribers across both platforms.
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Jennifer Witz, Chief Executive Officer
Jennifer Witz has served as Chief Executive Officer of SiriusXM since January 2021. Prior to her appointment as CEO, she held various senior leadership roles at SiriusXM, including President of Sales, Marketing and Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Senior Vice President, Finance. Before joining SiriusXM in 2002, Ms. Witz held senior financial and operating positions at global media companies Viacom Inc. and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM). She began her career in the Investment Banking division of Kidder, Peabody & Co Inc. Ms. Witz also served as a Director at LendingTree, Inc. She earned an MBA from Harvard Business School, a BA from the University of Pennsylvania, and a BS in Economics from The Wharton School.
Zac Coughlin, Chief Financial Officer
Zac Coughlin assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer for SiriusXM effective January 1, 2026. He brings nearly three decades of financial leadership experience from major global consumer, retail, and automotive brands. Prior to joining SiriusXM, Mr. Coughlin served as CFO of PVH Corp. His previous experience includes roles as Group CFO and Chief Operating Officer of DFS Group Limited, a subsidiary of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton Group, and CFO of Converse, Inc., a division of Nike, Inc. Mr. Coughlin also spent over a decade in various global financial leadership roles at Ford Motor Company. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BSBA in Finance and Supply Chain Logistics from The Ohio State University.
Scott Greenstein, President and Chief Content Officer
Scott Greenstein is the President and Chief Content Officer of SiriusXM. In this role, he manages Pandora's dedicated original programming team and oversees SiriusXM's podcasting studios, including the development and production of the company's original content. Before his tenure at SiriusXM, Mr. Greenstein served as Chairman of USA Films and Co-President of October Films.
Eve Konstan, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Eve Konstan serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary for SiriusXM.
Wayne Thorsen, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Wayne Thorsen was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of SiriusXM, effective December 16, 2024. In this newly created role, Mr. Thorsen oversees SiriusXM's product and technology functions and is responsible for aspects of the company's commercial operations, including business development, automotive, and streaming distribution arrangements. Prior to joining SiriusXM, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer of ADT Inc. At ADT, he led product management, engineering, and business development. He also previously led business development for the devices and services division at Google. His executive experience also includes roles at Social Finance, Inc., Viacom, Telefónica Digital, and Microsoft.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Sirius XM (SIRI) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by intense market competition and evolving consumer preferences in the audio entertainment landscape. The most significant risks include:1. Intense Competition and Declining Subscriber Base
Sirius XM is battling significant challenges in retaining subscribers and attracting new ones due to fierce competition from a multitude of audio streaming platforms, such as Spotify and Apple Music. These competitors often offer a broader array of content and more competitive pricing, leading to a shift in consumer preferences from traditional radio to podcasts and other compelling streaming options. The company has consistently reported subscriber losses for its satellite radio unit and a decline in monthly active users for its Pandora ad-supported service over recent years, impacting its revenue and market relevance.2. Reliance on and Transformation of the Automotive Industry
A substantial portion of Sirius XM's business model is tied to the automotive sector, particularly through the distribution of satellite radios in new and used vehicles. However, the automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with many new electric vehicles (EVs) featuring comprehensive in-built entertainment systems that increasingly prioritize internet-based streaming services. This shift poses a challenge to Sirius XM's traditional satellite radio offerings, potentially diminishing its competitive advantage and subscriber acquisition opportunities within the crucial in-car listening environment.AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Sirius XM is the **increasing prevalence and sophistication of in-car internet connectivity and integrated infotainment systems.** Modern vehicles are increasingly equipped with built-in 4G/5G connectivity, and deep integration with platforms like Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, as well as advanced proprietary OEM systems. These systems allow drivers and passengers to seamlessly access a vast array of alternative audio streaming services (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, various podcast apps) and data services (e.g., Google Maps, Waze, OEM-provided traffic/weather/fuel information) directly through the vehicle's display and sound system, often leveraging existing mobile subscriptions or built-in data plans.
This trend directly threatens Sirius XM's core value proposition, particularly for its satellite radio segment. As consumers can effortlessly stream their preferred content and access critical data services through these integrated platforms, the unique appeal and necessity of a separate satellite radio subscription or Sirius XM's bundled data services may diminish. This mirrors historical disruptions where superior, more integrated platforms (like the iPhone or Netflix) displaced incumbent services (BlackBerry or Blockbuster) by offering a more convenient, versatile, and often more cost-effective user experience.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Sirius XM's main products and services:Satellite Radio
- The United States satellite radio market was valued at USD 4,282.16 million in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 6,514.01 million by 2034.
- The Canadian satellite radio market is expected to increase from USD 1,092.47 million in 2025 to USD 1,652.13 million by 2034.
- North America leads the automotive satellite radio market, holding approximately 60% of the global share. The global automotive satellite radio market is projected to grow from USD 30.61 billion in 2024 to USD 53.10 billion by 2034.
Pandora and Off-platform (Digital Audio Streaming and Podcasting)
- The North American podcasting market generated revenue of USD 11,755.6 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach US$ 36,666.8 million by 2030.
- The global podcasting market size was valued at USD 30.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 327.83 billion by 2034, with North America being the largest market.
- North America held the largest revenue share in the audio streaming market in 2024, at 33.37%. The global audio streaming market size was an estimated USD 43.7 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 115.3 million by 2030.
- North America dominates the global music streaming market with approximately a 35% revenue share. The U.S. music streaming industry is forecast to reach $17,195.0 million by 2027.
- The global digital audio market was valued at USD 23.99 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 73.79 billion by 2035, with North America holding a 33%-41% share.
Location-Based Services (Connected Vehicle Services and Data Services)
- The North America automotive infotainment system market was valued at USD 5.63 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 10.29 billion by 2033.
- The global in-car infotainment market size was valued at USD 22.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 42.19 billion by 2030, with North America being the largest market in 2024.
- The North America location-based services (LBS) market dominated the global market with over 40.0% revenue share in 2024. The North America LBS market was estimated at USD 53,869.5 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 178,853.7 million in 2032. The global location-based services market size was estimated at USD 59.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 236.34 billion by 2033.
Music Programming for Businesses (Commercial Background Music)
- The global background music market was valued at USD 2.7 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 9.60% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America holds a leading share of nearly 35% and accounted for 38.10% of the commercial background music market share in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Sirius XM (SIRI) over the next 2-3 years:- Increased Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): Sirius XM anticipates continued improvement in its average revenue per user (ARPU) through recent pricing adjustments flowing through the subscriber base and the introduction of additional package options and targeted marketing. This strategy aims to drive subscription revenue even amidst potentially stable or slightly declining subscriber numbers.
- Expansion of Podcasting and Digital Advertising: The company is cautiously optimistic about sustained growth in its podcasting and digital advertising segments. This growth is expected to be fueled by strengthened programmatic partnerships and increasing demand from new advertising categories. Notably, podcasting ad revenue grew 41% for the full year 2025.
- Enhancing In-Car Subscription Business and Customer Lifetime Value: Sirius XM is focusing on expanding its in-car subscription business by improving distribution and customer engagement. This includes strategies such as content portfolio expansion through renewals of key talent and the introduction of new music and sports channels, as well as product innovations like "continuous service" and the increased penetration of the 360L platform in vehicles. These initiatives are aimed at improving retention and maximizing the value generated from its core subscriber base through more diverse pricing and packaging.
- Introduction of New Subscription Models and Personalized Content: New offerings, such as the ad-supported "SiriusXM Play" plan, are being launched to target price-sensitive customers and broaden the company's audience reach. These new subscription models and personalized content options are expected to contribute to both subscription and advertising revenue by expanding the funnel for potential subscribers.
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Share Repurchases
- SiriusXM's Board of Directors authorized a $1.166 billion common stock repurchase program, which was a continuation of a prior initiative that began in December 2012.
- As of March 31, 2025, approximately $1.135 billion remained available under the existing stock repurchase program authorization.
- Actual share repurchases were $136 million in 2025, $6 million in 2024, and $274 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Sirius XM Holdings' shares outstanding increased by 5.62% in 2025.
- As of December 31, 2025, shares outstanding were 334.955 million, representing a 7.01% increase from the prior year.
- As of March 31, 2025, 35 million shares of common stock were reserved for issuance in connection with outstanding stock-based awards to employees and third parties.
Inbound Investments
- No information available for large inbound investments made directly into the company by strategic partners or private equity firms in the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2022, SiriusXM acquired Team Coco, a provider of radio podcast, live event, and merchandise services.
- In January 2022, the company acquired Cloud Cover Music.
- In April 2021, SiriusXM acquired 99% Invisible Inc., the company producing the 99% Invisible radio show and podcast.
Capital Expenditures
- Full-year satellite capital expenditures were approximately $204 million in 2025.
- Non-satellite capital expenditures for 2025 were $449 million.
- Satellite capital expenditures are projected to decline significantly to approximately $115 million in 2026, $50 million in 2027, and near zero by 2028, largely due to successful satellite deployments.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04242026 | CMCSA | Comcast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| 04022026 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 7.0% | -8.9% |
| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -8.3% |
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 31.6% | 31.6% | -5.7% |
| 08312025 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.7% | 16.9% | -14.7% |
| 02282025 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.2% | -4.5% | -20.0% |
| 08312024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -30.1% | -29.9% | -44.1% |
| 02292024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.0% | -47.1% | -55.4% |
| 08312023 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.5% | -23.1% | -41.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,899 |
| Op Inc LTM | 426 |
| FCF LTM | 429 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 495 |
| CFO LTM | 540 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 610 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -51.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 5.0 |
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| D/E | 2.7 |
| Net D/E | 2.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -29.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -103.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $26.40 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/10/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $23.77 | $22.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.1% | 20.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.6% | 35.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.61 | 0.25 |
| Upside Capture | 34.96 | 64.93 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.6% | 21.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.13 | 0.53 | -0.00 | 0.20 | 0.61 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | -0.03 | -0.00 | -0.05 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | 12.46 | 1.44 | 1.16 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Up Capture | 85% | 104% | 32% | 36% | 46% | 78% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 32 | 57 | 127 | 356 |
| Down Capture | -285% | -1% | -120% | -28% | 47% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 32 | 67 | 122 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SIRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRI | 35.8% | 35.1% | 0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 20.3% | 13.2% | 1.14 | 26.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | -2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -6.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 1.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SIRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRI | -13.6% | 44.9% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.6% | 20.7% | 0.37 | 25.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 30.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 28.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 9.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SIRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRI | -2.6% | 37.5% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.6% | 22.3% | 0.51 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 42.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 37.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 9.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | 9.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| 10/30/2025 | 10.1% | 6.4% | 0.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | -7.9% | -8.5% | 3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -9.0% | -1.3% | 2.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 5.8% | 18.1% | 11.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | -3.3% | -0.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.4% | -9.9% | -4.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -7.3% | 0.3% | -12.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -3.3% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 18.1% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.3% | -27.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salen, Kristina | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 21.64 | 1,845 | 39,926 | 432,129 | Form | |
| 2 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 8042025 | 21.63 | 1,037,199 | 22,429,636 | 2,698,978,867 | Form | |
| 3 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 8042025 | 21.02 | 1,930,000 | 40,574,004 | 2,601,990,232 | Form | |
| 4 | Berkshire, Hathaway Inc | See footnotes | Buy | 8042025 | 21.06 | 2,063,226 | 43,450,740 | 2,565,901,436 | Form | |
| 5 | Salen, Kristina | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 21.28 | 1,651 | 35,133 | 462,244 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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