Tearsheet

Sirius XM (SIRI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.54 | Market Cap: $7.3 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Sirius XM (SIRI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.54
Market Cap: $7.3 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SIRI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. SiriusXM Revised 2025 Revenue Guidance Downwards. The company adjusted its financial guidance for 2025, anticipating $8.5 billion in revenue, a decrease from the approximately $8.675 billion projected for 2024. This revision, announced in December 2024, was attributed to ongoing "marketplace headwinds," including a softened advertising market and a decline in car sales which impacts subscriber conversion.

2. Persistent Negative Net Margin and Liquidity Concerns. Sirius XM reported a negative net margin of 26.41% for Q3 2025, indicating that its expenses exceeded its revenue. This signals potential long-term profitability challenges. Additionally, a low current ratio of 0.41 suggests the company may face difficulties in meeting its short-term financial obligations.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SIRI Return-10%1%-3%-4%-59%-4%-67%
Peers Return3%248%-8%-28%-11%-11%86%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SIRI Win Rate50%50%58%42%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate47%47%35%40%47%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SIRI Max Drawdown-38%-9%-6%-41%-63%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-6%-20%-39%-28%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMC, NXST, SBGI, AMC, UONE. See SIRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSIRIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1217 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1508 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7445.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2457 days1480 days

Compare to OMC, NXST, SBGI, AMC, UONE


In The Past

Sirius XM's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/20/2023. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sirius XM (SIRI)

Better Bets than Sirius XM (SIRI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SIRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
SIRI_8312024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312024SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-29.2%-29.0%-43.4%
SIRI_2292024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292024SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.0%-46.4%-54.9%
SIRI_8312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312023SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.5%-23.1%-41.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
SIRI_8312024_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy08312024SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-29.2%-29.0%-43.4%
SIRI_2292024_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292024SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.0%-46.4%-54.9%
SIRI_8312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312023SIRISirius XMDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.5%-23.1%-41.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sirius XM

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SIRIOMCNXSTSBGIAMCUONEMedian
NameSirius XMOmnicom Nexstar .Sinclair AMC Ente.Urban One 
Mkt Price21.3371.00190.9215.162.281.1818.24
Mkt Cap7.213.85.81.11.20.13.5
Rev LTM8,55316,0655,1483,3374,8673945,008
Op Inc LTM1,9262,1411,049331-2643690
FCF LTM1,2231,668983211-29535597
FCF 3Y Avg1,1451,297908168-41924538
CFO LTM1,8971,8261,112289-4344700
CFO 3Y Avg1,8231,4111,056255-18241656

Growth & Margins

SIRIOMCNXSTSBGIAMCUONEMedian
NameSirius XMOmnicom Nexstar .Sinclair AMC Ente.Urban One 
Rev Chg LTM-2.8%4.1%-1.4%-1.0%9.7%-13.1%-1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%4.0%1.2%-8.1%6.3%-6.3%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q-0.6%4.0%-12.3%-15.7%-3.6%-16.0%-8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%1.0%-3.2%-4.1%-1.0%-4.3%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM22.5%13.3%20.4%9.9%-0.5%10.9%12.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.9%14.1%19.8%5.2%-1.0%15.8%14.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.6%-2.4%-3.7%-2.8%-3.9%-2.6%
CFO/Rev LTM22.2%11.4%21.6%8.7%-0.9%11.1%11.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.8%9.1%20.5%7.7%-4.0%9.2%9.2%
FCF/Rev LTM14.3%10.4%19.1%6.3%-6.1%8.8%9.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%8.4%17.6%5.1%-9.1%5.6%7.0%

Valuation

SIRIOMCNXSTSBGIAMCUONEMedian
NameSirius XMOmnicom Nexstar .Sinclair AMC Ente.Urban One 
Mkt Cap7.213.85.81.11.20.13.5
P/S0.91.01.20.30.30.20.6
P/EBIT4.47.25.53.1-12.0-0.93.8
P/E7.911.811.6-23.4-2.3-0.53.7
P/CFO4.18.75.43.6-34.71.43.9
Total Yield17.3%11.9%12.3%2.3%-43.1%-207.8%7.1%
Dividend Yield4.7%3.5%3.7%6.6%0.0%0.0%3.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.8%7.6%16.7%21.7%-28.2%28.3%14.3%
D/E1.30.41.14.05.58.52.7
Net D/E1.30.21.03.55.37.22.4

Returns

SIRIOMCNXSTSBGIAMCUONEMedian
NameSirius XMOmnicom Nexstar .Sinclair AMC Ente.Urban One 
1M Rtn-2.6%-2.8%-1.2%12.8%-11.6%-7.8%-2.7%
3M Rtn-8.2%-8.4%-6.3%9.5%-15.9%-31.8%-8.3%
6M Rtn0.4%1.6%17.3%22.5%-32.9%-30.6%1.0%
12M Rtn-18.2%-29.2%16.8%-8.1%-53.1%-20.8%-19.5%
3Y Rtn-64.3%-0.4%16.8%-30.9%-96.8%-77.2%-47.6%
1M Excs Rtn-2.5%-2.7%-1.2%12.8%-11.6%-7.8%-2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-13.8%-14.9%-12.1%4.7%-21.5%-33.4%-14.4%
6M Excs Rtn-14.3%-13.1%2.6%7.8%-47.7%-45.3%-13.7%
12M Excs Rtn-30.5%-43.4%3.1%-23.7%-67.5%-42.0%-36.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-137.9%-72.5%-50.2%-103.7%-169.3%-149.8%-120.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Sirius XM6,8406,9056,6246,3426,187
Pandora and Off-platform2,1132,0982,0721,6981,607
Total8,9539,0038,6968,0407,794


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27,715,211
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.4%
Average Daily Volume3,386,475
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.18
Basic Shares Quantity337,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023201202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021201202210-K 12/31/2021