Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.54 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Sirius XM (SIRI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.54Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Music Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 127% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SIRI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. SiriusXM Revised 2025 Revenue Guidance Downwards. The company adjusted its financial guidance for 2025, anticipating $8.5 billion in revenue, a decrease from the approximately $8.675 billion projected for 2024. This revision, announced in December 2024, was attributed to ongoing "marketplace headwinds," including a softened advertising market and a decline in car sales which impacts subscriber conversion.
2. Persistent Negative Net Margin and Liquidity Concerns. Sirius XM reported a negative net margin of 26.41% for Q3 2025, indicating that its expenses exceeded its revenue. This signals potential long-term profitability challenges. Additionally, a low current ratio of 0.41 suggests the company may face difficulties in meeting its short-term financial obligations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIRI Return | -10% | 1% | -3% | -4% | -59% | -4% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 248% | -8% | -28% | -11% | -11% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIRI Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 35% | 40% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIRI Max Drawdown | -38% | -9% | -6% | -41% | -63% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -6% | -20% | -39% | -28% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMC, NXST, SBGI, AMC, UONE. See SIRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1217 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1508 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7445.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2457 days | 1480 days |
Compare to OMC, NXST, SBGI, AMC, UONE
In The Past
Sirius XM's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/20/2023. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| null | |||
| Sirius XM vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Sirius XM Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than SIRI Stock: Pay Less Than Sirius XM To Get More From CHTR, JEF | |||
| Better Bet Than SIRI Stock: Pay Less Than Sirius XM To Get More From CHTR | |||
| SIRI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Sirius XM During 2008 Recession vs. 2022 Inflation Shock: SIRI Stock Has 195% Upside If It Recovers To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels | Better Bets | ||
| Sirius XM (SIRI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sirius XM (SIRI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Sirius XM (SIRI) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Sirius XM Stock | May 6th, 2025 | ||
| Down 50%, What’s Happening With Sirius Stock? | February 20th, 2025 | ||
| How Sirius XM Stock Can Fall 50% | January 10th, 2025 | ||
| Sirius Stock Down 50% This Year, What’s Happening? | December 16th, 2024 | ||
| Where Is Sirius Stock Headed Post Reverse Stock Split? | September 13th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 08312024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.0% | -43.4% |
| 02292024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.0% | -46.4% | -54.9% |
| 08312023 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.5% | -23.1% | -41.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 08312024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.2% | -29.0% | -43.4% |
| 02292024 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.0% | -46.4% | -54.9% |
| 08312023 | SIRI | Sirius XM | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.5% | -23.1% | -41.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sirius XM
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,008 |
| Op Inc LTM | 690 |
| FCF LTM | 597 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 538 |
| CFO LTM | 700 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 656 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 3.8 |
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| D/E | 2.7 |
| Net D/E | 2.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -47.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -120.8% |
Comparison Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
