Stagwell (STGW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.62 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Stagwell (STGW)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $5.62Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 116% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Creator Economy Monetization, and Ad-Tech Platforms. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Creator Economy Monetization, and Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 116% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STGW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -0.4% movement in Stagwell (STGW) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025:
1. Stagwell reported a decline in organic growth during Q3 2025. The company's Q3 2025 earnings highlights, released on November 6, 2025, indicated a 0.4% decrease in organic growth, suggesting underlying challenges in expanding its core business.
2. The communications segment faced industry-wide headwinds and softer PR results. Challenges within the communications segment, including elongated pitch cycles and broader industry issues, contributed to weaker performance in this area as reported in the Q3 2025 earnings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STGW Return | -10% | 245% | -28% | 7% | -1% | -15% | 102% |
| Peers Return | 94% | 12% | -23% | 25% | 16% | -29% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STGW Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 51% | 40% | 58% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STGW Max Drawdown | -63% | -5% | -44% | -35% | -22% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -18% | -43% | -14% | -19% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STGW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 319 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -86.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 620.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 390.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI
In The Past
Stagwell's stock fell -62.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -62.1% loss requires a 163.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STGW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stagwell
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,840 |
| Op Inc LTM | 337 |
| FCF LTM | 420 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 382 |
| CFO LTM | 562 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.5 |
| P/E | 48.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -24.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -29.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -92.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated Agencies Network | 1,419 | 1,475 | 770 | 230 | |
| Brand Performance Network | 728 | 757 | 425 | ||
| Communications Network | 334 | 436 | 249 | 383 | |
| Elimination | 47 | ||||
| All Other | 20 | 26 | 21 | 40 | |
| Media Network | 254 | ||||
| Communications, Public Affairs and Advocacy | 112 | ||||
| Digital — Content | 158 | ||||
| Digital — Marketing | 208 | ||||
| Research — Corporate | 52 | ||||
| Research — Technology | 58 | ||||
| Total | 2,527 | 2,688 | 1,469 | 888 | 629 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Integrated Agencies Network | 270 | 292 | 164 | 42 | |
| Brand Performance Network | 98 | 116 | 66 | ||
| Communications Network | 52 | 87 | 46 | 79 | |
| All Other | -11 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -3 |
| Impairment and other losses | -11 | -122 | -16 | ||
| Deferred acquisition consideration | -13 | 13 | -19 | -4 | -16 |
| Other items, net | -45 | -19 | -21 | -14 | -7 |
| Corporate | -48 | -43 | -21 | -4 | -3 |
| Stock-based compensation | -57 | -33 | -75 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization | -143 | -131 | -78 | -41 | |
| Media Network | 28 | ||||
| Communications, Public Affairs and Advocacy | 14 | ||||
| Digital — Content | 11 | ||||
| Digital — Marketing | 25 | ||||
| Research — Corporate | 6 | ||||
| Research — Technology | 13 | ||||
| Total | 91 | 159 | 45 | 84 | 41 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |