AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $667.98 | Market Cap: $226.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $667.98Market Cap: $226.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 125% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 125% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why AppLovin's (APP) stock moved by 42.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. AppLovin reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results that exceeded analyst expectations.
The company announced on November 5, 2025, revenue of $1.405 billion, a 68% year-over-year increase, and net income of $836 million, up 92% from the previous year, both surpassing consensus estimates. Diluted EPS was reported at $2.45, beating the forecast.
2. AppLovin provided a bullish financial outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Following the strong Q3 results, AppLovin projected Q4 2025 revenue between $1.57 billion and $1.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA between $1.29 billion and $1.32 billion, implying sustained high-profit margins of 82% to 83%. This outlook exceeded Wall Street estimates and instilled confidence in future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APP Return | - | - | -89% | 278% | 713% | 111% | 625% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 897% | 1587% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APP Win Rate | - | 75% | 8% | 83% | 83% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APP Max Drawdown | - | - | -90% | -8% | -4% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1134.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 629 days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -91.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -91.9% loss requires a 1134.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | APP | AppLovin | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 375.1% | 406.7% | -12.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | APP | AppLovin | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 375.1% | 406.7% | -12.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AppLovin
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,026 |
| Op Inc LTM | 65 |
| FCF LTM | 1,051 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,704 |
| CFO LTM | 1,117 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,775 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 42.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| P/EBIT | 46.7 |
| P/E | 63.3 |
| P/CFO | 34.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1,710.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1,630.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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