AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $657.485 | Market Cap: $222.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $657.485Market Cap: $222.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 125% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 86x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 125% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strategic Pivot to Pure-Play Ad-Tech. AppLovin completed the strategic divestiture of its mobile gaming division in early 2025, notably selling it to Tripledot Studios for $900 million. This transformation allowed the company to focus exclusively on its high-margin advertising technology platform, pivoting to a "hyper-scalable ad-tech AI flywheel" model.
2. Exceptional Financial Performance. The company reported robust financial results, with Q3 2025 revenue soaring 68% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. Net income nearly doubled, increasing 92% to $836 million, and adjusted EBITDA margins consistently exceeded 80%. This strong performance included significant free cash flow generation and a positive outlook for Q4 2025.
3. Advancements in AXON AI Engine. AppLovin's proprietary AXON AI engine, including its AXON 2.0 version, served as a primary growth driver. This advanced AI optimized ad targeting and performance across mobile and e-commerce, capable of processing over 2 million ad auctions per second and leveraging predictive analytics and real-time optimization to enhance efficiency and scalability.
4. Expansion into New High-Growth Verticals and Multi-Channel Advertising. AppLovin actively expanded its AI-powered solutions beyond gaming into other high-growth sectors such as e-commerce, fintech, automotive, and Connected TV (CTV). This diversification, partly driven by the acquisition of Wurl, significantly broadened its total addressable market and revenue streams.
5. Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation and Strong Investor Confidence. AppLovin's board of directors increased its share repurchase authorization by an additional $3.2 billion in Q3 2025, signaling confidence in the company's future. The stock also exhibited strong institutional confidence, with 73.7% institutional ownership, and received positive analyst sentiment, including a "Strong Buy" consensus rating with favorable price targets.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APP Return | � | � | -89% | 278% | 713% | 109% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -1% | -62% | 46% | 16% | 47% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APP Win Rate | � | 75% | 8% | 83% | 83% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 47% | 32% | 63% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APP Max Drawdown | � | � | -90% | -8% | -4% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -31% | -73% | -26% | -34% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: U, TTD, META, APPS, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1134.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 629 days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -91.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -91.9% loss requires a 1134.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | APP | AppLovin | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 375.1% | 406.7% | -12.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | APP | AppLovin | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 375.1% | 406.7% | -12.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AppLovin
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,297 |
| Op Inc LTM | 307 |
| FCF LTM | 535 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 412 |
| CFO LTM | 647 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 499 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 29.2 |
| P/E | 42.7 |
| P/CFO | 22.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 31.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 34.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 21.7% | 23.5% | 32.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -16.9% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.8% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |