CarGurus (CARG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.22 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
CarGurus (CARG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.22Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Key risksCARG key risks include [1] its significant reliance on dealer relationships in a highly competitive market and [2] the persistent underperformance of its Digital Wholesale segment. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Key risksCARG key risks include [1] its significant reliance on dealer relationships in a highly competitive market and [2] the persistent underperformance of its Digital Wholesale segment. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CARG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of CarGurus (CARG) experienced notable movements between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to the overall positive performance during this period, leading to an approximate 10.4% increase.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: CarGurus announced its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, reporting strong Marketplace revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, reaching $232 million. The company also reported an 18% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP Marketplace Adjusted EBITDA to $82.4 million, exceeding the midpoint of their guidance range. Despite a slight miss on total revenue expectations, the strong performance of the core marketplace business and positive forward guidance impressed investors, leading to an approximate 2.6% rise in the stock in after-hours trading following the announcement.
2. Share Repurchase Programs: CarGurus demonstrated a commitment to returning value to shareholders through significant share repurchases. The company repurchased $111 million worth of shares in Q3 2025, contributing to a total of 23% of outstanding shares repurchased since the initiation of the buyback program in December 2022. Additionally, in Q2 2025, the board approved an additional $150 million share repurchase, increasing the 2025 authorization to $350 million and extending it through July 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CARG Return | -10% | 6% | -58% | 72% | 51% | 5% | 9% |
| Peers Return | 63% | 39% | -28% | 240% | 59% | 27% | 1010% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CARG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 60% | 40% | 58% | 52% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CARG Max Drawdown | -55% | -27% | -65% | 0% | -12% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -61% | -5% | -43% | -2% | -17% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVNA, CARS, LAD, AN, PAG. See CARG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CARG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 587 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to Z, CARS, TRUE, STUB, WSHP
In The Past
CarGurus's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/28/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CARG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| 08312023 | CARG | CarGurus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.3% | 60.0% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| 08312023 | CARG | CarGurus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.3% | 60.0% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CarGurus
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| Rev LTM | 23,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,290 |
| FCF LTM | 185 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 149 |
| CFO LTM | 291 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 319 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 9.1 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.6% | 9.3% | 12.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.3% | 1.1% | 14.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 11.2% | 17.7% | 14.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -17.1% | -18.2% | -19.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 4.3% | 7.6% | 13.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 20.3% | 26.0% | 21.4% |
| 5/9/2024 | 8.7% | 6.8% | 16.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -13.3% | -19.9% |
| Max Positive | 44.0% | 35.3% | 28.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -20.7% | -48.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |