CarGurus (CARG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $35.875 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
CarGurus (CARG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $35.875Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CARG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
CarGurus (CARG) experienced a 3.6% stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. CarGurus announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025. The company reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.57, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.55. Additionally, quarterly revenue rose 3.2% year-over-year to $238.70 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $234.57 million.
2. The core Marketplace segment showed robust growth. Marketplace revenue increased by 14% year-over-year, reaching $232 million, which was at the high end or above the midpoint of the company's guidance range. This growth was attributed to the increased adoption of data-driven tools by dealers and subscription-based listings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CARG Return | -10% | 6% | -58% | 72% | 51% | -2% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -5% | -18% | 31% | 5% | -15% | 21% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CARG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 32% | 25% | 33% | 27% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CARG Max Drawdown | -55% | -27% | -65% | 0% | -12% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -17% | -33% | -6% | -15% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, CARS, TRUE, STUB, WSHP. See CARG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CARG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 587 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to Z, CARS, TRUE, STUB, WSHP
In The Past
CarGurus's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/28/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CARG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 08312023 | CARG | CarGurus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.3% | 60.0% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| 08312023 | CARG | CarGurus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.3% | 60.0% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CarGurus
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 823 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12 |
| FCF LTM | 134 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 149 |
| CFO LTM | 216 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 188 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 3.0 |
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 42.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |