Tearsheet

CarGurus (CARG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.22 | Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

CarGurus (CARG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.22
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
Key risks
CARG key risks include [1] its significant reliance on dealer relationships in a highly competitive market and [2] the persistent underperformance of its Digital Wholesale segment.
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.9%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces.
 
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.9%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces.
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%
6 Key risks
CARG key risks include [1] its significant reliance on dealer relationships in a highly competitive market and [2] the persistent underperformance of its Digital Wholesale segment.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CARG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of CarGurus (CARG) experienced notable movements between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to the overall positive performance during this period, leading to an approximate 10.4% increase.

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: CarGurus announced its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, reporting strong Marketplace revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, reaching $232 million. The company also reported an 18% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP Marketplace Adjusted EBITDA to $82.4 million, exceeding the midpoint of their guidance range. Despite a slight miss on total revenue expectations, the strong performance of the core marketplace business and positive forward guidance impressed investors, leading to an approximate 2.6% rise in the stock in after-hours trading following the announcement.

2. Share Repurchase Programs: CarGurus demonstrated a commitment to returning value to shareholders through significant share repurchases. The company repurchased $111 million worth of shares in Q3 2025, contributing to a total of 23% of outstanding shares repurchased since the initiation of the buyback program in December 2022. Additionally, in Q2 2025, the board approved an additional $150 million share repurchase, increasing the 2025 authorization to $350 million and extending it through July 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CARG Return-10%6%-58%72%51%5%9%
Peers Return63%39%-28%240%59%27%1010%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CARG Win Rate50%58%33%58%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate63%60%40%58%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CARG Max Drawdown-55%-27%-65%0%-12%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-61%-5%-43%-2%-17%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVNA, CARS, LAD, AN, PAG. See CARG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCARGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven587 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to Z, CARS, TRUE, STUB, WSHP


In The Past

CarGurus's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/28/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CarGurus (CARG)

Better Bets than CarGurus (CARG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CARG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
CARG_8312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312023CARGCarGurusDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.3%60.0%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
CARG_8312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312023CARGCarGurusDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.3%60.0%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CarGurus

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CARGCVNACARSLADANPAGMedian
NameCarGurus Carvana Cars.com Lithia M.AutoNati.Penske A. 
Mkt Price38.20446.2313.38344.09206.61167.85187.23
Mkt Cap3.862.10.88.77.811.18.2
Rev LTM92618,26672037,61127,91530,68223,091
Op Inc LTM2081,717581,5481,2841,2961,290
FCF LTM252546119-42-178757185
FCF 3Y Avg175418123-28057773149
CFO LTM2886661452951111,070291
CFO 3Y Avg229529147314081,125319

Growth & Margins

CARGCVNACARSLADANPAGMedian
NameCarGurus Carvana Cars.com Lithia M.AutoNati.Penske A. 
Rev Chg LTM4.2%45.5%0.2%8.4%6.1%2.2%5.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-15.9%11.6%3.8%11.0%1.3%4.3%4.0%
Rev Chg Q3.2%54.5%1.1%4.9%6.9%1.4%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%12.2%0.3%1.2%1.6%0.3%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM22.5%9.4%8.1%4.1%4.6%4.2%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.1%3.5%7.9%4.7%5.2%4.5%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.0%0.2%0.7%-0.1%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM31.1%3.6%20.1%0.8%0.4%3.5%3.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.6%3.8%20.8%0.0%1.5%3.8%3.8%
FCF/Rev LTM27.2%3.0%16.5%-0.1%-0.6%2.5%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.6%2.9%17.5%-0.9%0.2%2.6%2.8%

Valuation

CARGCVNACARSLADANPAGMedian
NameCarGurus Carvana Cars.com Lithia M.AutoNati.Penske A. 
Mkt Cap3.862.10.88.77.811.18.2
P/S3.92.91.00.20.30.40.7
P/EBIT17.631.810.74.26.17.49.1
P/E24.083.525.28.812.412.218.2
P/CFO12.778.95.227.074.010.719.9
Total Yield4.2%1.2%4.0%12.0%8.1%10.4%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%2.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%2.4%12.8%-3.4%1.1%6.9%4.4%
D/E0.10.10.61.81.20.70.6
Net D/E0.00.10.51.81.20.70.6

Returns

CARGCVNACARSLADANPAGMedian
NameCarGurus Carvana Cars.com Lithia M.AutoNati.Penske A. 
1M Rtn9.2%38.1%19.3%20.6%6.9%7.8%14.2%
3M Rtn3.9%18.0%0.4%3.5%-6.3%-4.8%1.9%
6M Rtn20.3%44.9%22.8%5.6%7.1%0.1%13.7%
12M Rtn2.9%75.9%-26.3%-6.5%21.2%7.1%5.0%
3Y Rtn176.2%8,771.4%-3.7%65.6%85.0%52.4%75.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.5%37.4%18.5%19.9%6.2%7.0%13.5%
3M Excs Rtn0.3%16.7%-2.9%0.8%-7.9%-6.5%-1.3%
6M Excs Rtn7.9%32.5%10.4%-6.7%-5.3%-12.3%1.3%
12M Excs Rtn-9.7%68.7%-38.1%-20.0%8.6%-5.0%-7.3%
3Y Excs Rtn123.8%8,846.3%-69.8%-8.6%8.1%-24.3%-0.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S. Marketplace607525454  
Digital Wholesale258358442  
Other revenue534436  
Total919927932  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,713,762
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.6%
Average Daily Volume805,479
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.85
Basic Shares Quantity98,170,081
Short % of Basic Shares4.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20250.6%9.3%12.0%
8/7/2025-7.3%1.1%14.4%
5/8/202511.2%17.7%14.6%
2/20/2025-17.1%-18.2%-19.9%
11/7/20244.3%7.6%13.5%
8/8/202420.3%26.0%21.4%
5/9/20248.7%6.8%16.6%
2/26/2024-1.5%-4.0%-3.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141415
# Negative10109
Median Positive6.3%8.7%13.5%
Median Negative-7.7%-13.3%-19.9%
Max Positive44.0%35.3%28.3%
Max Negative-26.5%-20.7%-48.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021