Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $191.82 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $191.82Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NXST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Nexstar Media (NXST) stock moved by -5.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Nexstar Media Group missed its Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of $2.14, which fell short of the Wall Street consensus estimate of $2.58 per share, representing a 15.75% negative surprise.
2. The company's Third Quarter 2025 net revenue declined and also missed analyst expectations. Nexstar reported net revenue of $1.20 billion for the quarter, below the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $1.22 billion. This marked a 12.3% decrease compared to the same period in the prior year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | -4% | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 24% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 5% | -21% | -0% | 7% | -9% | -3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 38% | 30% | 42% | 35% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -60% | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -10% | -31% | -16% | -17% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Nexstar Media Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Nexstar Media Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | |||
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nexstar Media vs. StoneCo: NXST stock's significantly lower valuation vs. STNE appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,856 |
| Op Inc LTM | 417 |
| FCF LTM | 449 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 568 |
| CFO LTM | 602 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 638 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -63.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McMillen Charles Thomas | 3282025 | Sell | 151.73 | 1,000 | 151,735 | 839,852 | Form | |
| 1 | ALFORD ANDREW | President, Broadcasting | 3272025 | Sell | 181.98 | 3,768 | 685,716 | 983,624 | Form |
| 2 | Jenkins Brett | See Remarks | 3192025 | Sell | 176.75 | 3,785 | 668,987 | 3,845,131 | Form |
| 3 | ZIMMER DANA | See Remarks | 3112025 | Sell | 177.68 | 4,846 | 861,021 | 318,397 | Form |
| 4 | WEITMAN GARY | See Remarks | 3072025 | Sell | 177.21 | 1,241 | 219,918 | 704,410 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |