Tearsheet

Nexstar Media (NXST)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $205.58 | Market Cap: $6.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting

Nexstar Media (NXST)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $205.58
Market Cap: $6.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Broadcasting

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming.
  Key risks
NXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
8 Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025.
9 Key risks
NXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NXST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Nexstar Media (NXST) stock experienced fluctuations influenced by several key factors. While the overall net movement for the entire period is not precisely 1.6% based on available data, specific daily movements around this percentage were observed, and the following points highlight the reasons behind these and other significant movements within the timeframe: **1. Negative Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Miss.** Nexstar Media Group reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which fell short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company announced a substantial year-over-year decline in net income (down 63.9%), Adjusted EBITDA (down 29.8%), and Adjusted Free Cash Flow (down 49.2%). This led to a negative market reaction, with the stock trading down approximately 2.2% in pre-market activity following the announcement, indicating investor disappointment. **2. Decline in Political Advertising Revenue.** A significant contributing factor to the weaker Q3 2025 financial performance was a considerable decrease in political advertising revenue. This cyclical downturn in advertising, partially offset by stable core operations, directly impacted the company's profitability and revenue figures for the quarter. **3. Positive Stock Rebound in December 2025.** Following earlier dips, Nexstar Media's stock showed signs of recovery in December 2025, with notable daily gains. For instance, on December 11, 2025, the stock climbed 1.4% from the previous day, and on December 17, 2025, it gained 1.58%. These movements contributed to the stock being up 7.77% over the two weeks leading up to December 17, 2025, and 8% over the preceding 30 days as of December 16, 2025, suggesting renewed investor confidence and a rebound from earlier negative sentiment. **4. Strategic TEGNA Acquisition Progress.** Throughout the period, Nexstar's definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA Inc. for $6.2 billion remained a significant strategic point. This acquisition is anticipated to be highly accretive, enhancing Nexstar's cash flow and market position, pending regulatory approval. Management expressed confidence in completing the deal, which serves as a potential catalyst for future shareholder value. **5. Commitment to Shareholder Returns and Future Growth Drivers.** Nexstar demonstrated its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, including declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share payable on August 29, 2025. Additionally, the company continued to reduce its total debt. Looking forward, management highlighted potential growth catalysts such as upcoming distribution renewals, the anticipated closing of the TEGNA acquisition, and the 2026 mid-term election political advertising cycle, which are expected to drive future shareholder value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NXST Return-4%39%20%-8%5%34%108%
Peers Return-12%8%-21%-14%11%63%16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NXST Win Rate67%58%25%50%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate50%47%33%38%53%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NXST Max Drawdown-60%-1%0%-22%-2%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-10%-28%-29%-27%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNXSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-96.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2896.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,563 days1,480 days

Compare to NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST


In The Past

Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Nexstar Media (NXST)

Better Bets than Nexstar Media (NXST)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Mkt Price205.7571.1728.2115.7819.655.0623.93
Mkt Cap6.231.869.91.13.30.54.8
Rev LTM5,14816,47437,8633,3372,8763,3484,248
Op Inc LTM1,0493,2431,412331599625837
FCF LTM9832,6654,134211429440712
FCF 3Y Avg9081,8344,925168519372713
CFO LTM1,1123,0365,230289468545828
CFO 3Y Avg1,0562,1886,071255567603830

Growth & Margins

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.4%14.9%-4.3%-1.0%-2.7%-3.3%-2.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.2%5.6%17.2%-8.1%-2.8%0.3%0.7%
Rev Chg Q-12.3%4.9%-6.0%-15.7%-19.3%-21.2%-14.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.2%1.1%-1.5%-4.1%-5.1%-5.7%-3.6%
Op Mgn LTM20.4%19.7%3.7%9.9%20.8%18.7%19.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.8%18.4%-0.5%5.2%22.8%19.2%18.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.4%-0.1%1.2%-3.7%-3.5%-3.6%-2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM21.6%18.4%13.8%8.7%16.3%16.3%16.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.5%14.2%15.2%7.7%19.0%17.5%16.4%
FCF/Rev LTM19.1%16.2%10.9%6.3%14.9%13.1%14.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.6%11.9%12.3%5.1%17.4%10.9%12.1%

Valuation

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
Mkt Cap6.231.869.91.13.30.54.8
P/S1.21.71.30.31.10.21.2
P/EBIT5.59.013.13.1-0.95.5
P/E11.613.999.8-23.49.56.010.6
P/CFO5.49.39.33.67.01.06.2
Total Yield12.3%8.2%1.0%2.3%13.0%22.5%10.3%
Dividend Yield3.7%1.0%0.0%6.6%2.4%5.7%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg16.7%8.5%18.3%21.7%-65.3%18.3%
D/E1.10.30.74.0-10.11.1
Net D/E1.00.10.63.5-9.81.0

Returns

NXSTFOXAWBDSBGITGNAGTNMedian
NameNexstar .Fox Warner B.Sinclair Tegna Gray Med. 
1M Rtn9.7%10.3%24.1%-5.0%-0.5%5.5%7.6%
3M Rtn0.9%20.2%56.8%12.4%-5.6%-7.1%6.7%
6M Rtn25.8%30.7%166.9%24.8%20.9%26.1%26.0%
12M Rtn32.8%46.4%148.5%-1.0%11.6%64.7%39.6%
3Y Rtn29.8%141.0%184.7%-28.1%7.3%-46.1%18.5%
1M Excs Rtn9.0%9.5%23.3%-5.7%-1.2%4.8%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-0.7%17.6%49.5%10.3%-7.3%-8.1%4.8%
6M Excs Rtn13.4%18.3%154.5%12.4%8.5%13.7%13.6%
12M Excs Rtn19.2%41.5%122.6%-13.0%-1.9%34.6%26.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-43.2%66.5%81.9%-96.5%-61.1%-118.1%-52.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Broadcast11,20311,63512,03912,35312,919
Corporate (unallocated)4465471,226  
Other429497 1,0521,071
Total12,07812,67913,26413,40413,990


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,126,848
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.5%
Average Daily Volume320,090
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.64
Basic Shares Quantity30,319,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-3.6%-3.3%0.8%
8/7/2025-1.3%12.3%12.4%
5/8/20255.4%12.0%9.6%
2/27/202511.1%15.9%22.7%
11/7/20242.9%-9.4%-6.2%
8/8/2024-4.9%-6.6%-5.1%
5/9/20246.9%4.5%-6.0%
2/28/20241.5%-3.1%5.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141417
# Negative10107
Median Positive5.4%10.9%9.2%
Median Negative-3.4%-3.7%-6.2%
Max Positive32.1%34.6%45.2%
Max Negative-6.0%-11.3%-44.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0McMillen Charles Thomas 3282025Sell151.731,000151,735839,852Form
1ALFORD ANDREWPresident, Broadcasting3272025Sell181.983,768685,716983,624Form
2Jenkins BrettSee Remarks3192025Sell176.753,785668,9873,845,131Form
3ZIMMER DANASee Remarks3112025Sell177.684,846861,021318,397Form
4WEITMAN GARYSee Remarks3072025Sell177.211,241219,918704,410Form