Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $205.58 | Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $205.58Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -43% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. | Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -43% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 103% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
| Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NXST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Nexstar Media (NXST) stock experienced fluctuations influenced by several key factors. While the overall net movement for the entire period is not precisely 1.6% based on available data, specific daily movements around this percentage were observed, and the following points highlight the reasons behind these and other significant movements within the timeframe: **1. Negative Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Miss.** Nexstar Media Group reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which fell short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company announced a substantial year-over-year decline in net income (down 63.9%), Adjusted EBITDA (down 29.8%), and Adjusted Free Cash Flow (down 49.2%). This led to a negative market reaction, with the stock trading down approximately 2.2% in pre-market activity following the announcement, indicating investor disappointment. **2. Decline in Political Advertising Revenue.** A significant contributing factor to the weaker Q3 2025 financial performance was a considerable decrease in political advertising revenue. This cyclical downturn in advertising, partially offset by stable core operations, directly impacted the company's profitability and revenue figures for the quarter. **3. Positive Stock Rebound in December 2025.** Following earlier dips, Nexstar Media's stock showed signs of recovery in December 2025, with notable daily gains. For instance, on December 11, 2025, the stock climbed 1.4% from the previous day, and on December 17, 2025, it gained 1.58%. These movements contributed to the stock being up 7.77% over the two weeks leading up to December 17, 2025, and 8% over the preceding 30 days as of December 16, 2025, suggesting renewed investor confidence and a rebound from earlier negative sentiment. **4. Strategic TEGNA Acquisition Progress.** Throughout the period, Nexstar's definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA Inc. for $6.2 billion remained a significant strategic point. This acquisition is anticipated to be highly accretive, enhancing Nexstar's cash flow and market position, pending regulatory approval. Management expressed confidence in completing the deal, which serves as a potential catalyst for future shareholder value. **5. Commitment to Shareholder Returns and Future Growth Drivers.** Nexstar demonstrated its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, including declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share payable on August 29, 2025. Additionally, the company continued to reduce its total debt. Looking forward, management highlighted potential growth catalysts such as upcoming distribution renewals, the anticipated closing of the TEGNA acquisition, and the 2026 mid-term election political advertising cycle, which are expected to drive future shareholder value.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | -4% | 39% | 20% | -8% | 5% | 34% | 108% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 8% | -21% | -14% | 11% | 63% | 16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 33% | 38% | 53% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -60% | -1% | 0% | -22% | -2% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -10% | -28% | -29% | -27% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FOXA, WBD, SBGI, TGNA, GTN. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2896.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,563 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NYT, LBTYA, TGNA, CABO, CAST
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -37.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -37.2% loss requires a 59.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NXST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nexstar Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,248 |
| Op Inc LTM | 837 |
| FCF LTM | 712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 713 |
| CFO LTM | 828 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 830 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 5.5 |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.7% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 32.1% | 34.6% | 45.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.0% | -11.3% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | McMillen Charles Thomas | 3282025 | Sell | 151.73 | 1,000 | 151,735 | 839,852 | Form | |
| 1 | ALFORD ANDREW | President, Broadcasting | 3272025 | Sell | 181.98 | 3,768 | 685,716 | 983,624 | Form |
| 2 | Jenkins Brett | See Remarks | 3192025 | Sell | 176.75 | 3,785 | 668,987 | 3,845,131 | Form |
| 3 | ZIMMER DANA | See Remarks | 3112025 | Sell | 177.68 | 4,846 | 861,021 | 318,397 | Form |
| 4 | WEITMAN GARY | See Remarks | 3072025 | Sell | 177.21 | 1,241 | 219,918 | 704,410 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |