Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.58 | Market Cap: $9.5 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Alternative Carriers
Lumen Technologies (LUMN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.58Market Cap: $9.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Alternative Carriers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 255% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 20% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.2% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 255% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.2% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LUMN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Lumen Technologies (LUMN) stock moved by 92.6% due to several key factors:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Reaffirmed Guidance.
Lumen Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, where it exceeded expectations for earnings per share (EPS), Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow, despite a year-over-year revenue decline. The company posted an EPS of -$0.20, surpassing analysts' expectations of -$0.26, and its revenue reached $3.087 billion, slightly above forecasts. Management reiterated its full-year 2025 financial outlook, projecting Adjusted EBITDA near the high end of its $3.2-$3.4 billion guidance range and free cash flow supported by lower capital expenditures, reduced interest expense, and a $400 million tax refund.
2. Significant Debt Reduction and Improved Financial Stability.
During the third quarter of 2025, Lumen Technologies executed a $2.4 billion debt refinancing, a term loan repricing, and further debt reduction, resulting in $135 million in annual interest expense savings year-to-date. This proactive approach to balance sheet management was highlighted as removing a "key overhang" and strengthening the company's financial position, contributing to increased investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUMN Return | -19% | 39% | -55% | -65% | 190% | 72% | -13% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 35% | -25% | -17% | 31% | -2% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUMN Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 67% | 35% | 48% | 48% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUMN Max Drawdown | -33% | -0% | -57% | -81% | -46% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -6% | -40% | -31% | -30% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, ZD, ATEX, LUMN, IRDM. See LUMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1459.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to CSCO, ZD, ATEX, LUMN, IRDM
In The Past
Lumen Technologies's stock fell -93.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -93.6% loss requires a 1459.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LUMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 06302024 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 399.1% | 298.2% | -6.4% |
| 12312023 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -39.9% | 195.1% | -45.8% |
| 06302023 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -19.0% | -51.3% | -56.6% |
| 12312022 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -56.7% | -64.9% | -81.2% |
| 06302022 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -50.3% | -78.8% | -83.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 06302024 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 399.1% | 298.2% | -6.4% |
| 12312023 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -39.9% | 195.1% | -45.8% |
| 06302023 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -19.0% | -51.3% | -56.6% |
| 12312022 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -56.7% | -64.9% | -81.2% |
| 06302022 | LUMN | Lumen Technologies | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -50.3% | -78.8% | -83.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lumen Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,457 |
| Op Inc LTM | 176 |
| FCF LTM | 305 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 279 |
| CFO LTM | 396 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 358 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 4.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -39.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -39.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business | 11,583 | 13,041 | 14,119 | 14,817 | |
| Mass Markets | 2,974 | 4,437 | 5,568 | 5,895 | |
| Consumer | 5,517 | ||||
| Enterprise | 5,696 | ||||
| International and Global Accounts | 3,476 | ||||
| Small and Medium Business | 2,727 | ||||
| Wholesale | 4,042 | ||||
| Total | 14,557 | 17,478 | 19,687 | 20,712 | 21,458 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business | 6,055 | 8,569 | 9,453 | 9,899 | |
| Mass Markets | 1,517 | 2,690 | 4,876 | 5,118 | |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -52 | -98 | -120 | -175 | -162 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -2,985 | -3,239 | -4,019 | -4,710 | -4,829 |
| Other unallocated expense | -3,426 | -4,556 | -5,905 | -6,528 | -7,024 |
| Goodwill impairment | -10,693 | -3,271 | -2,642 | -6,506 | |
| Consumer | 4,799 | ||||
| Enterprise | 3,383 | ||||
| International and Global Accounts | 2,295 | ||||
| Small and Medium Business | 1,869 | ||||
| Wholesale | 3,449 | ||||
| Total | -9,584 | 95 | 4,285 | 962 | -2,726 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |