Tearsheet

Lumen Technologies (LUMN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.58 | Market Cap: $9.5 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Alternative Carriers

Lumen Technologies (LUMN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.58
Market Cap: $9.5 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Alternative Carriers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 255%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 20%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.2%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 20%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, Show more.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 255%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.2%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LUMN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Lumen Technologies (LUMN) stock moved by 92.6% due to several key factors: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Reaffirmed Guidance.
Lumen Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, where it exceeded expectations for earnings per share (EPS), Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow, despite a year-over-year revenue decline. The company posted an EPS of -$0.20, surpassing analysts' expectations of -$0.26, and its revenue reached $3.087 billion, slightly above forecasts. Management reiterated its full-year 2025 financial outlook, projecting Adjusted EBITDA near the high end of its $3.2-$3.4 billion guidance range and free cash flow supported by lower capital expenditures, reduced interest expense, and a $400 million tax refund.

2. Significant Debt Reduction and Improved Financial Stability.
During the third quarter of 2025, Lumen Technologies executed a $2.4 billion debt refinancing, a term loan repricing, and further debt reduction, resulting in $135 million in annual interest expense savings year-to-date. This proactive approach to balance sheet management was highlighted as removing a "key overhang" and strengthening the company's financial position, contributing to increased investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LUMN Return-19%39%-55%-65%190%72%-13%
Peers Return6%35%-25%-17%31%-2%13%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LUMN Win Rate42%58%25%33%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%67%35%48%48%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LUMN Max Drawdown-33%-0%-57%-81%-46%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-6%-40%-31%-30%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSCO, ZD, ATEX, LUMN, IRDM. See LUMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLUMNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1459.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven310 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-64.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven182.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-56.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven127.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to CSCO, ZD, ATEX, LUMN, IRDM


In The Past

Lumen Technologies's stock fell -93.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -93.6% loss requires a 1459.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lumen Technologies (LUMN)

Better Bets than Lumen Technologies (LUMN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LUMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
LUMN_6302024_Short_Squeeze06302024LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
399.1%298.2%-6.4%
LUMN_12312023_Short_Squeeze12312023LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-39.9%195.1%-45.8%
LUMN_6302023_Short_Squeeze06302023LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-19.0%-51.3%-56.6%
LUMN_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-56.7%-64.9%-81.2%
LUMN_6302022_Short_Squeeze06302022LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-50.3%-78.8%-83.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.9%2.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.3%1.3%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.5%-0.5%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-22.5%-22.5%-25.6%
LUMN_6302024_Short_Squeeze06302024LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
399.1%298.2%-6.4%
LUMN_12312023_Short_Squeeze12312023LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-39.9%195.1%-45.8%
LUMN_6302023_Short_Squeeze06302023LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-19.0%-51.3%-56.6%
LUMN_12312022_Short_Squeeze12312022LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-56.7%-64.9%-81.2%
LUMN_6302022_Short_Squeeze06302022LUMNLumen TechnologiesSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-50.3%-78.8%-83.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lumen Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LUMNCSCOZDATEXIRDMMedian
NameLumen Te.Cisco Sy.Ziff Dav.Anterix Iridium . 
Mkt Price9.5777.7535.8420.1017.1320.10
Mkt Cap9.5308.01.50.41.81.8
Rev LTM12,69056,6541,45768721,457
Op Inc LTM17012,504176-46233176
FCF LTM1,22613,288261-47305305
FCF 3Y Avg54114,178214-23279279
CFO LTM4,86414,193374-30396396
CFO 3Y Avg3,83714,986323-3358358

Growth & Margins

LUMNCSCOZDATEXIRDMMedian
NameLumen Te.Cisco Sy.Ziff Dav.Anterix Iridium . 
Rev Chg LTM-4.6%5.3%5.7%16.0%7.3%5.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.6%3.4%1.3%75.4%8.6%3.4%
Rev Chg Q-4.2%7.6%2.9%-7.0%6.7%2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.0%1.9%0.7%-1.8%1.7%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM1.3%22.1%12.0%-771.4%26.7%12.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.2%24.5%13.8%-1,442.1%19.2%13.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%0.3%-2.0%41.6%1.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM38.3%25.1%25.7%-507.1%45.5%25.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.9%26.7%23.0%-246.5%43.3%26.7%
FCF/Rev LTM9.7%23.5%17.9%-789.8%35.0%17.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%25.3%15.2%-845.6%33.7%15.2%

Valuation

LUMNCSCOZDATEXIRDMMedian
NameLumen Te.Cisco Sy.Ziff Dav.Anterix Iridium . 
Mkt Cap9.5308.01.50.41.81.8
P/S0.54.91.180.62.12.1
P/EBIT-6.321.79.6-10.58.08.0
P/E-3.727.013.916.314.714.7
P/CFO1.319.44.1-15.94.74.1
Total Yield-27.1%6.0%7.2%6.1%10.2%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%0.0%0.0%3.4%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.5%6.4%10.9%-4.7%9.6%6.4%
D/E2.90.10.60.01.00.6
Net D/E2.60.00.2-0.10.90.2

Returns

LUMNCSCOZDATEXIRDMMedian
NameLumen Te.Cisco Sy.Ziff Dav.Anterix Iridium . 
1M Rtn-19.1%4.4%5.4%2.2%-6.4%2.2%
3M Rtn102.8%15.6%-3.7%-10.5%-30.0%-3.7%
6M Rtn144.8%22.2%9.6%-25.5%-34.1%9.6%
12M Rtn42.0%34.1%-39.7%-40.8%-41.4%-39.7%
3Y Rtn73.7%70.8%-61.6%-39.4%-65.9%-39.4%
1M Excs Rtn-19.1%4.5%5.5%2.2%-6.4%2.2%
3M Excs Rtn87.2%9.7%-9.4%-15.1%-35.2%-9.4%
6M Excs Rtn130.0%7.5%-5.1%-40.2%-48.8%-5.1%
12M Excs Rtn16.8%21.1%-52.6%-55.6%-54.6%-52.6%
3Y Excs Rtn0.6%3.7%-132.5%-115.1%-137.9%-115.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business11,58313,04114,11914,817 
Mass Markets2,9744,4375,5685,895 
Consumer    5,517
Enterprise    5,696
International and Global Accounts    3,476
Small and Medium Business    2,727
Wholesale    4,042
Total14,55717,47819,68720,71221,458


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business6,0558,5699,4539,899 
Mass Markets1,5172,6904,8765,118 
Stock-based compensation expense-52-98-120-175-162
Depreciation and amortization-2,985-3,239-4,019-4,710-4,829
Other unallocated expense-3,426-4,556-5,905-6,528-7,024
Goodwill impairment-10,693-3,271 -2,642-6,506
Consumer    4,799
Enterprise    3,383
International and Global Accounts    2,295
Small and Medium Business    1,869
Wholesale    3,449
Total-9,584954,285962-2,726


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity57,381,225
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-6.2%
Average Daily Volume24,122,856
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.38
Basic Shares Quantity995,998,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021