Roblox (RBLX)
Market Price (5/9/2026): $41.97 | Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Home Entertainment
Roblox (RBLX)
Market Price (5/9/2026): $41.97Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Home Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital & Alternative Assets, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 10/8/2024. Key risksRBLX key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and reputational scrutiny over child safety due to its predominantly young user base and [2] an uncertain path to profitability needed to justify its premium valuation. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital & Alternative Assets, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 10/8/2024. |
| Key risksRBLX key risks include [1] heightened regulatory and reputational scrutiny over child safety due to its predominantly young user base and [2] an uncertain path to profitability needed to justify its premium valuation. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Roblox significantly lowered its full-year 2026 guidance after reporting mixed first-quarter 2026 results. The company's revenue for Q1 2026 was approximately $1.44 billion, falling short of analyst estimates of $1.74 billion. While earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.35 beat expectations of -$0.41, Roblox revised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.87 billion to $6.14 billion, a substantial reduction from prior guidance and well below the consensus estimate of $8.42 billion. Full-year bookings guidance was also cut to 8%-12% growth, down from a previous forecast of 22%-26%. This downward revision led to a sharp stock decline, including a nearly 22% plunge in premarket trading on May 1, 2026.
2. The implementation of new safety measures and age-verification processes created greater-than-expected headwinds for user growth and engagement. Roblox cited its mandatory age-check rollout, which began in January 2026, as a primary reason for slowed new user acquisition and restricted on-platform communication for non-age-checked users. This impacted daily active users (DAUs), which reached 132 million in Q1 2026, missing analyst estimates of 143.8 million. Hours engaged also fell short at 31 billion compared to estimates of 33.7 billion. Additionally, increased regulatory pressure concerning child safety, including multi-million dollar settlements in states like Nevada ($10 million), West Virginia ($11 million), and Alabama ($12.2 million), contributed to concerns around platform changes and their impact on monetization.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.3% change in RBLX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.76 | 41.91 | -36.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,464 | 5,297 | 18.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.3 | 5.6 | -45.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 697 | 712 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -36.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 50.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.3% | 32.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -63.1% change in RBLX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.72 | 41.91 | -63.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,464 | 5,297 | 18.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 17.8 | 5.6 | -68.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 697 | 712 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -63.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -63.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 39.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | 2.5% | 25.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.5% change in RBLX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.05 | 41.91 | -37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,602 | 5,297 | 47.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.3 | 5.6 | -54.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 661 | 712 | -7.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 36.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | 24.0% | 32.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.7% change in RBLX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 138.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.60 | 41.91 | 17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,225 | 5,297 | 138.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.6 | 5.6 | -41.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 602 | 712 | -15.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RBLX | 17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 38.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 101.7% | 36.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RBLX Return | 48% | -72% | 61% | 27% | 40% | -45% | -36% |
| Peers Return | 9% | -44% | 73% | 11% | 41% | -15% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RBLX Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 32% | 72% | 55% | 55% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RBLX Max Drawdown | -8% | -78% | -11% | -33% | -11% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -51% | -7% | -19% | -16% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, TTWO, EA, U, META.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RBLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 326.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1133 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Roblox's stock fell -19.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RBLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 326.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1133 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Roblox's stock fell -19.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Roblox (RBLX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Roblox (RBLX):
- YouTube for 3D games.
- An App Store for user-created virtual worlds.
- Lego meets the App Store for digital worlds.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Roblox Studio: A free toolset enabling developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences and other content.
- Roblox Client: An application that allows users to explore the 3D digital world created on the platform.
- Roblox Education: Provides learning experiences through its platform.
- Roblox Cloud: Offers services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Roblox primarily sells its services and content to **individuals**. The company's major customer categories are:- Players/Users (Consumers of Experiences): These are individuals across various age groups who engage with the Roblox platform to explore 3D digital worlds, play games, and socialize. They are the primary source of revenue by purchasing Robux, the in-platform currency, which is then used to buy virtual items, avatar customizations, and access to premium experiences created by developers.
- Parents/Guardians: Often, parents or guardians make the direct financial transactions for Robux purchases, gift cards, or subscriptions (e.g., Roblox Premium) on behalf of younger players. While the end-user is the player, the paying customer in many instances is the parent or guardian managing these purchases.
- Roblox Premium Subscribers: A dedicated segment of players who subscribe to a recurring monthly service. These individuals pay a subscription fee to receive a monthly Robux stipend, exclusive virtual items, and other benefits, representing a consistent revenue stream from committed users.
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- Amazon (AMZN)
- Alphabet (GOOGL)
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David Baszucki, Founder & CEO
David Baszucki is the co-founder and CEO of Roblox Corporation. Before Roblox, he co-founded Knowledge Revolution in 1989, an educational software company that developed "Interactive Physics" and "Working Model" software, which was later acquired by MSC Software in December 1998. He then served as Vice President and General Manager of MSC Software from 2000 to 2002. From 2003 to 2004, Baszucki founded Baszucki & Associates, an angel investment firm, providing seed funding to companies like Friendster.
Naveen Chopra, Chief Financial Officer
Naveen Chopra was appointed as Roblox's Chief Financial Officer, effective June 30, 2025. He brings over 25 years of extensive financial and strategic leadership experience from various technology and media companies, including Paramount, Amazon, Pandora, and TiVo. He also serves on the board of directors at Macy's Inc.
Manuel Bronstein, Chief Product Officer
Manuel Bronstein serves as the Chief Product Officer at Roblox, leading the Product, Design, and Data Science organizations. With over 20 years of experience as a product leader in consumer and entertainment industries, he previously held roles as Vice President of Product at Google, where he led the Google Assistant, and Vice President of Product at YouTube, overseeing mobile, desktop, and living room applications, as well as live streaming, growth, and community. He also served as VP of Product and General Manager at Zynga and held product, strategy, and planning roles at Xbox.
Craig Donato, Chief Business Officer
Craig Donato is the Chief Business Officer at Roblox, overseeing Business Development and Developer Relations. He founded Oodle Holdings LLC in 2004, serving as its CEO from 2005 to 2013, before it was acquired by QVC in 2012. Prior to joining Roblox in 2016, he was the Vice President of Business Development at Nextdoor and Vice President-Social at QVC, Inc.
Arvind KC, Chief People & Systems Officer
Arvind KC serves as the Chief People and Systems Officer at Roblox. His background includes significant roles at major technology companies, such as Vice President of Engineering at Google and CIO at Palantir Technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Roblox Corporation (RBLX) primarily revolve around its unique platform model, which heavily relies on user-generated content and a significant youth demographic.
- Child Safety, Content Moderation, and Regulatory Scrutiny: A paramount risk stems from the challenges of ensuring child safety and effectively moderating user-generated content and interactions on a platform with millions of young users. Despite efforts, Roblox faces ongoing criticism for instances of inappropriate content, cyberbullying, and predatory behavior slipping through its moderation systems. This has led to formal regulatory investigations in various jurisdictions, such as the Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets, and multiple lawsuits alleging failures in developing adequate safety protocols. The potential for negative media coverage, legal liabilities, and regulatory fines poses a significant threat to the company's reputation, user trust, and financial performance.
- Financial Performance and Path to Profitability: Roblox has a documented history of net losses and anticipates continued losses as it makes substantial investments in business growth, including significant capital expenditures for proprietary AI infrastructure and data centers. While the company generates strong cash flow, its consistent GAAP unprofitability raises concerns among investors, as it indicates that, when all long-term costs and equity compensation are factored in, the core business may be operating at a loss. Maintaining investor confidence and balancing aggressive growth strategies with a clear path to sustained profitability remains a critical financial risk.
- Competition and Developer Ecosystem Management: Roblox operates in a highly competitive digital entertainment market, vying for users and creators against well-resourced rivals such as Epic Games (Fortnite) and Meta Platforms (Horizon Worlds). There is an ongoing "war for talent" among developers, and Roblox's business model is heavily reliant on its community of creators to produce engaging experiences. Concerns exist regarding the revenue share developers receive and the opaque conversion rates when cashing out Robux (the platform's virtual currency) into real money, which has drawn criticism for potentially exploiting young developers. If top developers migrate to competing platforms or the company fails to maintain a vibrant and incentivized creator community, it could significantly impact user engagement and revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Roblox is the potential for major technology companies to launch highly integrated and compelling platforms for user-generated 3D interactive experiences, leveraging advanced spatial computing hardware and sophisticated AI-driven content creation tools. Such platforms could offer a more intuitive, immersive, or accessible environment for developers and users, potentially establishing new industry standards and drawing significant portions of Roblox’s developer base and user audience to alternative ecosystems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Roblox (RBLX) operates within several substantial addressable markets related to its online entertainment platform, 3D experiences, and content creation tools.
The global online entertainment market, which encompasses digital platforms and services delivering multimedia content like video, music, and gaming, was valued at USD 474.78 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2639.74 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 21% from 2025 to 2033. North America is a dominant region in this market.
For the broader metaverse market, which includes Roblox's 3D digital worlds, the global market size was valued at USD 1,273.58 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 10,808.57 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 22.60% from 2026–2034. North America held a significant share of this market, at 70.70% in 2025.
More specifically, the metaverse in gaming market, directly relevant to Roblox's immersive 3D experiences, was valued at $23.9 billion globally in 2024 and is forecast to grow at a 27.7% CAGR to $216.1 billion by 2033. In 2025, North America accounted for 38.27% of the revenue in the metaverse in gaming market.
The user-generated content (UGC) platform market, vital for Roblox Studio's function in enabling creators to build content, was valued at USD 7.1 billion globally in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 64.31 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 28.8%. North America led this market with a 33.3% share in 2025.
Furthermore, as 3D content creation becomes more sophisticated, the AI-generated 3D asset market, which aids in developing content, was valued at USD 1.63 billion globally in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 9.24 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 24.29% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. portion of this market was valued at USD 0.46 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.56 billion by 2032.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Roblox (RBLX)
Over the next 2-3 years, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion into the 18+ User Demographic and Targeted Content: Roblox is actively growing its user base among individuals aged 18 and older, a cohort that demonstrates significantly higher monetization compared to younger users. The company has observed the 18+ demographic growing over 50% year-over-year and monetizing approximately 40% higher. To cater to this audience, Roblox is launching programs like "Incubator" and "Jumpstart" to foster the creation of more mature game genres such as RPGs, strategy games, and shooters. This strategic shift aims to capture a more lucrative segment of the gaming market.
- Continued International Growth, particularly in the Asia-Pacific Region: International markets represent a substantial growth opportunity for Roblox. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, in particular, has shown robust performance, with bookings growing 96% year-over-year. Key countries like Japan (160% growth), India (110% growth), and Indonesia (exceeding 700% growth) are leading this expansion. Deepening engagement and monetization in these high-growth regions will be a significant revenue driver.
- Growth of the Advertising Business: Roblox is developing advertising as a new and growing revenue stream. Management anticipates "pretty healthy growth" from its advertising business in 2026. Initiatives like "Rewarded Video" and "Sponsored Tiles" are showing strong early growth, indicating the potential for immersive advertising to contribute significantly to future revenue diversification.
- Enhancements to the Creator Ecosystem and Monetization Tools: Roblox continues to invest heavily in its creator community to foster a richer content library and boost in-game purchases. This includes increasing DevEx (Developer Exchange) rates, introducing AI-assisted creation tools, and implementing improved monetization options such as differential and regional pricing. Innovations like "Amaze Digital Fits" are also projected to enhance avatar customization engagement and contribute to revenue growth.
- AI-driven Improvements in Content Discovery and Personalization: Advances in search, discovery, and recommendation algorithms are driving a double-digit increase in the unique experiences surfaced for users. By improving how users find and engage with content, Roblox aims to diversify engagement beyond the top experiences, leading to higher overall user engagement and increased monetization opportunities across the platform.
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Share Repurchases
Roblox has not engaged in significant share repurchase programs over the last 3-5 years, with its buyback yield reported as -0.22% as of March 14, 2026, indicating net share issuance rather than repurchases.
Share Issuance
- Roblox's shares outstanding increased by 3.51% in 2023 to 0.616 billion from 2022.
- Shares outstanding grew by 5.03% in 2024 to 0.647 billion from 2023.
- In 2025, shares outstanding further increased by 6.51% to 0.69 billion from 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In January 2021, prior to its direct listing, Roblox completed a "series H" funding round led by Altimeter Capital and Dragoneer Investment Group, which valued the company at $29.5 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2021, Roblox acquired Guilded, Inc., a company focused on connecting gaming communities, for $90 million in cash and stock.
- Roblox also acquired the online communication platform Bash Video in August 2021.
- The company is actively investing in existing and developing games on its platform.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were reported as $93.273 million in fiscal year 2021, and then increased to $426.2 million in 2022.
- For fiscal year 2025, Roblox's reported capital expenditures were $310 million. The company had also raised its full-year 2025 CapEx guidance to $468 million, primarily for investments in proprietary AI infrastructure (including high-end GPUs) and data centers to manage demand and develop future technology.
- Expected capital expenditures for Q1 2026 are projected to be $85 million.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04242026 | CMCSA | Comcast | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| 04022026 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 7.0% | -8.9% |
| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.4% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | MSFT | Microsoft | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -8.3% |
| 01302026 | RBLX | Roblox | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.0% | -16.0% | -21.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 210.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 45.4 |
| Rev LTM | 6,933 |
| Op Inc LTM | 331 |
| FCF LTM | 1,910 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,497 |
| CFO LTM | 2,252 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,753 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 45.4 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 0.0 |
| P/EBIT | 3.2 |
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | -1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 50.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $41.91 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 29.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/10/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -70.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $56.99 | $92.69 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -26.5% | -54.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.0% | 58.2% |
| Downside Capture | 2.29 | 1.29 |
| Upside Capture | 150.50 | 117.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.0% | 32.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.29 | 1.54 | 2.12 | 1.88 | 1.60 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | 0.73 | 1.02 | 1.43 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 6.36 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 3.36 | 2.53 | 1.23 |
| Up Capture | 113% | 98% | 205% | 50% | 128% | 300% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 19 | 30 | 54 | 129 | 407 |
| Down Capture | 375% | 233% | 269% | 212% | 152% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 24 | 34 | 71 | 120 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RBLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -43.6% | 58.2% | -0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 21.6% | 13.2% | 1.22 | 32.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 2.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.9% | 42.1% | -0.35 | 21.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RBLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -10.9% | 70.1% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.6% | 20.7% | 0.38 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 41.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 26.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 24.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RBLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBLX | -5.4% | 70.3% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.7% | 22.3% | 0.51 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 42.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 26.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 24.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -18.3% | -19.0% | |
| 2/5/2026 | 9.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | -15.5% | -23.6% | -29.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 10.3% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.9% | 5.1% | 29.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | -11.1% | -14.9% | -24.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | 19.9% | 22.6% | 16.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.4% | -12.9% | 4.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 10.2% | 7.4% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -18.3% | -17.2% | -21.1% |
| Max Positive | 42.2% | 40.3% | 62.1% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -37.7% | -36.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baszucki, Gregory | See Footnotes | Sell | 5072026 | 44.97 | 16,666 | 749,424 | 58,210,106 | Form | |
| 2 | Kaufman, Matthew D | Chief Safety Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 57.94 | 13,325 | 772,102 | 21,110,095 | Form |
| 3 | Reinstra, Mark | Chief Legal Off. & Corp. Sec. | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 57.94 | 18,653 | 1,080,808 | 26,391,400 | Form |
| 4 | Baszucki, Gregory | See Footnotes | Sell | 4022026 | 57.95 | 16,666 | 965,840 | 75,502,806 | Form | |
| 5 | Wong, Andrea L | See footnote | Sell | 2262026 | 66.16 | 563 | 37,249 | 2,957,592 | Form |
RBLX Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock receives a low score due to its negative risk/reward skew, a contested moat, and a speculative valuation. The entire thesis rests on a successful, but highly uncertain, operational pivot to overcome a self-inflicted growth crisis. While a positive outcome is possible, the downside risk of failure is more significant than the upside potential from success at the current valuation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'Roblox is a former hyper-growth company that is now experiencing a significant, self-inflicted deceleration in user growth. The core investment debate has pivoted from pure top-line acceleration to the company's ability to manage this transition by attracting a higher-monetizing older demographic and introducing new revenue streams like advertising, which aligns perfectly with the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary bull case posits that the current user growth slowdown, caused by the rollout of mandatory safety features, is a temporary headwind. The thesis is that Daily Active Users (DAUs) will stabilize and resume growth in the second half of 2026, while the strategic pivot to the faster-growing and higher-monetizing 17-24 year old demographic, combined with new advertising revenue, will drive bookings growth and margin expansion, leading to a positive re-rating.
- The 17-24 age group is the fastest-growing user segment on the platform.
- Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow was strong at $596 million, demonstrating the model's cash-generative nature despite growth headwinds.
- Average Bookings per DAU (ABPDAU) grew 6% YoY in Q1 2026, showing healthy monetization of the existing user base.
- Management has guided for a potential return to DAU growth in Q3 2026 after an expected Q2 contraction.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the friction from new age-verification and safety protocols is not a temporary issue but a permanent structural impairment to the viral, organic user acquisition loop. A failure to re-accelerate DAU growth would signal market saturation or platform fatigue, breaking the high-growth narrative and justifying a significantly lower valuation multiple.
- Management slashed full-year 2026 bookings growth guidance from a midpoint of 24% to 10%.
- The company explicitly guided for a sequential decline in Daily Active Users (DAUs) in Q2 2026, confirming the severity of the friction.
- The stock fell over 20% following the Q1 2026 earnings report, indicating the market views this slowdown as a critical threat to the thesis.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Sequential Change in Daily Active Users (DAUs) | Positive growth in Q3 2026 | This is the single most critical KPI. A failure to return to sequential growth after the guided Q2 decline would confirm the primary bear case that the user acquisition funnel is permanently impaired. |
| Bookings Growth YoY | Achieve the 8-12% full-year guidance | Meeting the drastically lowered guidance is the minimum requirement to stabilize the stock. Any further downward revisions would signal a deeper operational crisis. |
| Average Bookings per DAU (ABPDAU) | Continued positive YoY growth | This metric must show strength to prove that the pivot to older, higher-value users is working. It is the primary offset to slowing headline DAU growth. |
The User Growth Engine: Temporary Stall or Permanent Impairment?
BULL VIEW
This is a temporary, self-inflicted slowdown. A strategic pivot to higher-monetizing older users and new ad revenue will drive a successful transition to profitable growth.
CORE TENSION
Are new safety features a one-time friction event, or have they permanently broken the viral user acquisition loop, signaling market saturation or platform fatigue?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management slashed FY26 bookings growth guidance from ~24% to a ~10% midpoint and explicitly guided for a sequential DAU decline in Q2 2026, confirming the friction's severity.
BEAR VIEW
The user acquisition funnel is structurally impaired. The slowdown is not temporary, and the high-growth narrative justifying the valuation is permanently broken.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July / Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential Change in Daily Active Users (DAUs). Watch for a decline smaller than feared after the -8.3% drop from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. |
Late October / Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings & FY Guidance Update Watch: A return to positive sequential DAU growth as guided by management and FY2026 bookings growth tracking toward the high end of the 8-12% revised range. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | EU Digital Services Act Ruling Watch: Formal announcement of findings or fines from the Dutch ACM investigation into child safety measures on the platform. |
Ongoing (Next 6 months) | Developer Migration Watch Watch: Announcements from high-profile Roblox developers shifting primary focus to Epic Games' UEFN, citing superior revenue share. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 21, 2025 | Strategic: Mandatory Age-Checks Announced Details: Company announced that age-checks would be required to access chat and other features, a key strategic shift to improve safety that later caused significant growth headwinds. | Modest 1.5% gain $89.25 -> $90.58 |
Dec 3, 2025 | Platform Banned in Russia Details: Access to Roblox was blocked by Russia's censorship agency, Roskomnadzor, citing child safety issues. The market reaction did not reflect significant concern at the time. | Rose significantly by 3.4% $92.10 -> $95.21 |
Jan 30, 2026 | Netherlands ACM Investigation Launch Details: The Dutch Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM) launched a formal investigation into Roblox under the EU's Digital Services Act, assessing child safety measures. | Plummeted -13.2% $75.73 -> $65.76 |
Feb 1, 2026 | Georgia AG Investigation & LA Lawsuit Details: Georgia's AG launched an investigation and Los Angeles County filed a lawsuit over child safety failures. The stock reaction was muted, likely overshadowed by other news. | Modest 2.6% gain $65.76 -> $67.48 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported strong bookings growth of 63% YoY and DAU growth of 69% YoY. The market reacted positively, before the subsequent Q1 slowdown became apparent. | Surged +9.7% $60.57 -> $66.42 |
Apr 30, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Cut Details: Despite strong Q1 FCF of $596M, RBLX slashed full-year bookings growth guidance from ~24% to 8-12%, citing friction from new safety features. Stock plummeted on the news. | Crashed -18.3% $55.26 -> $45.13 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.6x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, Contested moat, and Low visibility force a Conservative sizing to manage extreme drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
TTWO
SECTORUnlike RBLX's user-growth crisis, TTWO's primary catalyst is a known, high-conviction product launch (GTA 6) which provides much greater visibility into future earnings.
U
INDUSTRYUnity provides a more diversified way to invest in the creator economy, not tied to a single consumer-facing platform. Its risk is B2B adoption, not fickle consumer trends.
Roblox is transitioning from a hyper-growth youth gaming platform into a more mature, but slower-growing, social platform, as mandatory safety initiatives create near-term user acquisition headwinds while management pushes for expansion into older demographics and new monetization like advertising.
Filter all news through the lens of a trade-off: are new safety measures and a push to older users successfully creating a more monetizable, moat-like platform, or are they permanently impairing the user growth flywheel?
Evidence of DAU growth re-accelerating into Q3 2026; stabilization or growth in Average Bookings per DAU (ABPDAU), especially in international markets; named brands launching significant advertising campaigns; developer payout rates (DevEx) increasing for the 18+ user cohort successfully attracting higher-quality game content.
Continued sequential decline in Daily Active Users (DAUs) past Q2 2026; a decline in ABPDAU in high-value regions like the US & Canada; significant regulatory fines or restrictions related to child safety; major developers leaving the platform for competitors like Epic Games' Fortnite Creative.
Seasonal fluctuations in quarterly user numbers (Q4 is seasonally strongest); individual hit games gaining or losing popularity (focus on the diversity of top-100 games instead); minor changes to the Robux-to-USD exchange rate; partnerships with toy companies or for single-movie promotional events.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is currently re-pricing Roblox's growth trajectory downward due to management's guidance revision. The key catalyst for a positive re-rating would be evidence that the user growth deceleration caused by new mandatory age-verification checks is temporary. If DAUs stabilize and resume growth in H2 2026, it would validate the thesis that the safety initiatives are a one-time headwind, not a permanent impairment to the network effect.
(Adapted: Bookings) US & Canada
$707000.0B TTM (41% of Total) · 82% MarginWhat It Is
Virtual Currency 'Robux' sales to users for avatar items and in-experience purchases.
Who Pays & How
23 million DAUs pay for Robux to customize avatars and gain advantages in games. Lock-in is driven by network effects (friends are on the platform) and accumulated digital assets.
Competition
(Adapted: Bookings) Europe
$431000.0B TTM (25% of Total) · 82% MarginWhat It Is
Virtual Currency 'Robux' sales to users for avatar items and in-experience purchases.
Who Pays & How
28 million DAUs pay for Robux. Lock-in is driven by network effects.
Competition
(Adapted: Bookings) Asia-Pacific (APAC)
$371000.0B TTM (21% of Total) · 82% MarginWhat It Is
Virtual Currency 'Robux' sales to users for avatar items and in-experience purchases.
Who Pays & How
41 million DAUs pay for Robux. This is the largest and fastest-growing user region.
Competition
(Adapted: Bookings) Rest of World
$222000.0B TTM (13% of Total) · 82% MarginWhat It Is
Virtual Currency 'Robux' sales to users for avatar items and in-experience purchases.
Who Pays & How
39 million DAUs pay for Robux.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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