Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $350.98 | Market Cap: $5.1 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $350.98Market Cap: $5.1 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 145 Bil, FCF LTM is 136 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 272 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 145 Bil, FCF LTM is 136 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 272 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Apple reported record-setting financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, which ended in September 2026. The company posted $114.5 billion in revenue, marking a 12% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst estimates of $113.4 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.10, a 14% rise from the previous year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.99. Both net income of $30.7 billion and EPS established new September quarter records. For the full fiscal year 2026, Apple achieved its "best fiscal year yet," with revenue of $478.8 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and EPS of $8.98, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
2. The company experienced robust growth in its key iPhone and Services segments during fiscal Q4 2026. iPhone revenue climbed 17% year-over-year to $57.6 billion, setting a new September quarter record despite supply constraints. Services revenue also reached an all-time high of $31.6 billion, growing 10% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across video, cloud services, payment services, and advertising categories. Mac revenue notably increased by 24% to $10.8 billion.
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Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Apple reported record-setting financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, which ended in September 2026. The company posted $114.5 billion in revenue, marking a 12% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst estimates of $113.4 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.10, a 14% rise from the previous year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.99. Both net income of $30.7 billion and EPS established new September quarter records. For the full fiscal year 2026, Apple achieved its "best fiscal year yet," with revenue of $478.8 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and EPS of $8.98, an increase of 20% year-over-year.
2. The company experienced robust growth in its key iPhone and Services segments during fiscal Q4 2026. iPhone revenue climbed 17% year-over-year to $57.6 billion, setting a new September quarter record despite supply constraints. Services revenue also reached an all-time high of $31.6 billion, growing 10% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across video, cloud services, payment services, and advertising categories. Mac revenue notably increased by 24% to $10.8 billion.
3. Successful new product launches, particularly the strong initial demand for the iPhone Duo, contributed positively to the stock's trend. Apple introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in September 2026, with availability starting September 18. The highly anticipated foldable iPhone Duo, launched on October 23, 2026, garnered significant interest, reportedly leading Apple to request suppliers to increase shipments by 44%, from 9.7 million to 14 million units over 12 months, due to strong demand. Other product updates, including the Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, and AirPods 5, were also part of the fall 2026 lineup.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and favorable price targets provided a supportive backdrop for Apple's stock. Throughout the period, analysts maintained a generally bullish outlook, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating for AAPL. Several firms raised their price targets, such as Monness, Crespi, Hardt, which increased its target to $355 from $335 on October 28, 2026. This positive sentiment, coupled with a perceived "medium-term bullish trend" ahead of the fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, reflected confidence in the company's strong iPhone demand and continued growth in high-margin Services.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.2% change in AAPL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.64 | 349.51 | 13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 466,823 | 478,834 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.6% | 27.6% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.1 | 38.5 | 9.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,656 | 14,570 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 0.7% | -0.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.0% change in AAPL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 270.87 | 349.51 | 29.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 435,617 | 478,834 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 27.6% | 2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.9 | 38.5 | 13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,748 | 14,570 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 29.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 16.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.8% | 1.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.7% change in AAPL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 269.37 | 349.51 | 29.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 416,161 | 478,834 | 15.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.9% | 27.6% | 2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.6 | 38.5 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,815 | 14,570 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 29.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 31.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.9% | 15.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 107.4% change in AAPL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.49 | 349.51 | 107.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 383,933 | 478,834 | 24.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.7% | 27.6% | 11.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.9 | 38.5 | 38.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,698 | 14,570 | 7.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 107.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 59.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 119.1% | 48.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 9% | 29% | 171% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 14% | 52% | 256% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 73% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -19% | -30% | -15% | -15% | -31% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -43% | -18% | -25% | -32% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Apple (AAPL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of consumer electronics, software, and online services. The company's business model centers on creating an integrated ecosystem of hardware and software, providing users with premium smartphones, personal computers, tablets, and wearable devices.
Apple's main products include the iPhone (smartphones), Mac (personal computers), iPad (tablets), and popular wearables such as Apple Watch and AirPods. Complementing its hardware, Apple offers a robust suite of services, including the App Store for digital content and applications, Apple Music for streaming, Apple TV+ for original video content, Apple Pay for mobile payments, and AppleCare for support. It also provides cloud services and subscription offerings like Apple Arcade and Apple News+.
The company primarily serves a broad customer base, including individual consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and sectors like education, enterprise, and government. Apple distributes its products globally through its own retail and online stores, direct sales force, and a network of third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apple (AAPL):
- The Nike of personal technology.
- Imagine if Tesla made your phone, computer, and watch, and designed all the software they ran on.
- The Rolex of personal electronics.
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- iPhone: Apple's flagship line of smartphones.
- Mac: Apple's brand of personal computers.
- iPad: Apple's line of multi-purpose tablets.
- Wearables & Accessories: Includes devices like Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple TV, and HomePod.
- App Store: A digital marketplace for applications and content.
- Apple Music: A subscription-based music streaming service.
- Apple TV+: A subscription video streaming service featuring exclusive original content.
- Apple Arcade: A subscription service offering a curated library of games.
- Apple News+: A subscription service for news and magazines.
- AppleCare: Comprehensive support and extended warranty services for Apple products.
- iCloud: Cloud storage and synchronization services for data across Apple devices.
- Apple Pay: A mobile payment and digital wallet service.
- Apple Card: A co-branded credit card offering integrated financial management.
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) primarily sells its products and services to individuals and various organizational entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Consumers: Individual users worldwide who purchase Apple's smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and subscribe to its various services (e.g., Apple Music, Apple TV+, App Store content) for personal use.
- Small and Mid-sized Businesses: Organizations that acquire Apple products (such as iPhones, Macs, and iPads) and related services for their employees and operational needs.
- Education, Enterprise, and Government Markets: Larger institutions, corporations, and public sector bodies that integrate Apple technology into their learning environments, corporate infrastructure, or administrative systems.
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- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)
- Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)
- Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)
- Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)
- Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
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Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook has served as Apple's CEO since 2011, succeeding co-founder Steve Jobs. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Apple's chief operating officer, responsible for the company's worldwide sales and operations, supply chain management, and service and support across all markets. Before joining Apple in 1998, Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he was director of North American Fulfillment. He also served as chief operating officer of the Reseller Division at Intelligent Electronics and as vice president of Corporate Materials for Compaq.
Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevan Parekh assumed the role of Apple's Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2025. He reports directly to CEO Tim Cook and oversees Apple's accounting, business support, financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, internal audit, and tax functions. Parekh joined Apple in 2013 and has held key roles in financial and business planning, and product development planning. Prior to his time at Apple, he held senior leadership positions at Thomson Reuters and General Motors, working across Europe and Asia.
Katherine Adams, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs
Katherine Adams is Apple's senior vice president of Government Affairs, leading the team that engages with legislators and policymakers globally on topics important to Apple's users. She previously served as Apple's general counsel and senior vice president of Legal and Global Security. Adams joined Apple in 2017 after 14 years at Honeywell, where she was most recently senior vice president and general counsel, managing the organization's global legal strategy across over 100 countries.
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services and Health
Eddy Cue is Apple's senior vice president of Services and Health, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. He oversees the full range of Apple's services, including Apple Music, Apple News, Apple Podcasts, Apple TV app, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Maps, iCloud services, and Apple's productivity and creativity apps. Cue joined Apple in 1989 and was instrumental in creating the Apple Store online in 1998, the iTunes Store in 2003, and the App Store in 2008.
Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering
Craig Federighi is Apple's senior vice president of Software Engineering, responsible for the development of Apple's software platforms, including iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS. His teams deliver the software, user interface, applications, and frameworks for Apple's innovative products. Federighi returned to Apple in 2009 to lead macOS engineering, and in 2012, his responsibilities expanded to include iOS. Before rejoining Apple, he worked at NeXT, and then spent a decade at Ariba, an e-commerce pioneer where he held several roles, including chief technology officer.
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The key risks to Apple's business include:
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Apple faces significant global regulatory and antitrust challenges, particularly concerning its App Store policies and business practices. Investigations and lawsuits from entities such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) target Apple's control over app distribution and in-app purchasing systems, which could lead to mandated changes in business practices, lower commission fees, and substantial fines. These actions directly threaten the high-margin revenue generated by Apple's Services segment.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Concentration: Apple's deep reliance on China as both a primary manufacturing hub and a critical consumer market exposes it to considerable geopolitical risks. Escalating trade tensions, tariffs, export controls, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment in China could disrupt its supply chain, increase production costs, and negatively impact sales in a key region. While Apple is pursuing diversification of its manufacturing base to countries like India and Vietnam, this process is complex, costly, and its dependency on China remains substantial.
- Innovation and Competition in Rapidly Evolving Technologies: Apple operates in highly competitive markets across its product and service categories, requiring constant innovation to maintain its leadership. There is a risk that new products and services may not achieve the same level of profitability or market acceptance as existing offerings, such as the iPhone. Furthermore, the company faces pressure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and a perceived lag in AI development or a failure to introduce compelling new AI features could impact its competitive standing and future growth.
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Regulatory actions, particularly those aimed at dismantling its tightly controlled App Store ecosystem and payment policies. Examples include the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which mandates allowing alternative app stores and third-party payment systems on iOS devices, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny in other regions such as the United States and Japan. These actions threaten Apple's significant revenue streams from App Store commissions and its strategic control over its platform, potentially leading to reduced profitability and a more fragmented user experience.
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Addressable Markets for Apple's Main Products and Services
- Smartphones (iPhone): The global smartphone market size was valued at USD 649.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1173.47 billion by 2033.
- Personal Computers (Mac): The global personal computers market size was valued at USD 211.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 390.84 billion by 2033.
- Tablets (iPad): The global tablet market size was valued at USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033.
- Wearables (AirPods Max, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats products): The global wearables market was estimated at USD 179.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 995.2 billion in 2034.
- App Store (Applications and Digital Content): The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Of this, USD 131 billion originated from billings and sales of digital goods and services.
- Apple Arcade (Game Subscription Service): The global subscription-based gaming market generated USD 11.53 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.18 billion by 2030.
- Apple Music (Music Streaming): The global music streaming market generated USD 48.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about USD 200 billion by 2034.
- Apple TV+ (Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030.
-
Apple Card and Apple Pay (FinTech/Digital Payments):
- The global fintech market was valued at USD 394.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,760.18 billion by 2034.
- The global digital payment market size was estimated at USD 114.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030.
- Apple News+: null
- AppleCare support services: null
- Licensing intellectual property: null
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Continued Services Growth: Apple's Services segment, encompassing offerings like the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and payment services, is a consistent and high-margin revenue driver. This segment has shown robust double-digit year-over-year growth and is projected to continue its strong momentum, supported by Apple's extensive installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices. The expansion of this ecosystem, through recurring subscriptions and digital transactions, provides stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Strong iPhone Sales and Upgrade Cycles: iPhone sales continue to be a significant contributor to Apple's revenue, with recent quarters showing strong growth, particularly driven by new product launches like the iPhone 17 lineup. A large, installed base of active devices creates opportunities for significant hardware upgrade cycles, especially with the introduction of new, more capable, and AI-ready iPhone models.
- Expansion in Emerging Markets: Apple is experiencing considerable growth in emerging markets. The company has reported double-digit iPhone growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, South Asia, Brazil, and Greater China, indicating a successful strategy to expand its customer base beyond traditional markets. This geographical expansion is crucial for sustained long-term revenue growth.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration and Innovation: Apple's strategic focus on developing and integrating AI across its platforms is a significant future growth driver. This includes efforts to enhance its operating systems and services, such as a more personalized Siri, potentially through collaborations like the one with Google for foundational AI models. New AI-ready iPads and Macs are also expected to accelerate sales by appealing to an increasingly AI-focused technological environment.
- New Product Line Innovation and Market Share Expansion: Apple is demonstrating flexibility in its product strategy by introducing new offerings aimed at broader market segments. Examples include the launch of the MacBook Neo, a more budget-friendly laptop, and the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPhone, designed to attract new users into the Apple ecosystem and increase market share. Furthermore, exploration into new categories like home automation and security, potentially with a smart home hub and security cameras, could also serve as future revenue catalysts.
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Share Repurchases
- Apple authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases in May 2024, marking the largest share buyback in U.S. company history.
- The company repurchased $90.711 billion in shares in 2025, $94.949 billion in 2024, and $77.55 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Apple's shares outstanding declined by 2.62% in 2025 (to 15.005 billion), 2.56% in 2024 (to 15.408 billion), and 3.14% in 2023 (to 15.813 billion), primarily due to extensive share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- Apple is significantly increasing its AI investments and has made seven acquisitions directly related to its AI ambitions in 2025, with a stated openness to further strategic acquisitions aligned with long-term AI goals.
- The company has committed $500 billion to U.S. investments over several years, focusing on expanding U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development.
- In October 2025, Apple pledged further investments in China while simultaneously preparing to dedicate another $100 billion to expanding its operations in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Apple's annual capital expenditures were $12.715 billion in 2025, $9.447 billion in 2024, and $10.959 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the next fiscal year are forecast at $13.465 billion, with a high consensus reaching $16.238 billion.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures in fiscal Q4 2025, which saw a 35% year-over-year increase to $12.7 billion, was directed towards AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centers.
Peer Outperformance in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 17.2% | 109.4% | 187.6% | FLEX 488% · TTMI 419% · JBL 311% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 52.3% | 67.5% | 72.9% | AVT 148% · SNX 123% · CNXN 99% |
| Electronic Components | 24 | 16.4% | 69.6% | 35.2% | CLS 2134% · BELFA 1016% · APH 318% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 8.7% | 75.7% | 31.6% | LITE 609% · AAOI 586% · ANET 445% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 42.7% | 55.4% | 31.5% | AXTI 418% · LRCX 289% · KLAC 284% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -2.2% | 28.0% | 4.3% | PI 130% · OSIS 116% · CXT 71% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 2.3% | 45.5% | 1.3% | MU 1027% · NVDA 575% · AVGO 548% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals ← | 21 | 7.9% | 85.9% | -14.2% | WDC 691% · DELL 652% · STX 574% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 3.5% | 45.5% | -20.9% | GDDY 58% · VRSN 40% · DOCN -20% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -18.2% | 1.2% | -26.5% | APLD 303% · IBM 155% · GIB -8% |
| Application Software | 126 | -9.9% | -6.3% | -50.0% | PLTR 549% · AGYS 157% · FROG 144% |
| Systems Software | 70 | -8.4% | 24.1% | -51.9% | ZETA 255% · CRWD 245% · CVLT 146% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 5 Catalysts to Monitor Over In The Next 2 Quarters For AAPL Stock | 09/29/2026 | |
| Is Apple Stock's Shrinking Share Count Worth Paying Up For Near The Highs? | 09/21/2026 | |
| Can AAPL Stock Compound Its Way Higher? | 08/28/2026 | |
| null | 08/26/2026 | |
| Does Apple Stock Still Have Room to Run? | 08/15/2026 | |
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| ARTICLES | ||
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| Should You Pick Apple Stock Over Its Competitors? | 10/26/2026 | |
| Should You Be Worried About Apple Stock? | 10/21/2026 | |
| Which Stocks Are Paying For $4.33 Gas? | 10/20/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 320.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 3,214.3 |
| Rev LTM | 408,772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 130,671 |
| FCF LTM | 14,154 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 27,650 |
| CFO LTM | 156,698 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 131,088 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3,214.3 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.0 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 21.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 96.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 25.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 254,098 | 209,586 | 201,183 | 200,583 | 205,489 |
| Services | 123,301 | 109,158 | 96,169 | 85,200 | 78,129 |
| Mac | 37,929 | 33,708 | 29,984 | 29,357 | 40,177 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 35,577 | 35,686 | 37,005 | 39,845 | 41,241 |
| iPad | 27,929 | 28,023 | 26,694 | 28,300 | 29,292 |
| Total | 478,834 | 416,161 | 391,035 | 383,285 | 394,328 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Americas | 6,637 |
| Europe | 4,296 |
| Retail | 1,677 |
| Other Segments | 1,121 |
| Japan | 961 |
| Corporate | -2,952 |
| Total | 11,740 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Corporate | 41,897 |
| Americas | 1,882 |
| Europe | 1,352 |
| Retail | 1,344 |
| Other Segments | 543 |
| Japan | 483 |
| Total | 47,501 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $349.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5,092.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $334.84 | $297.58 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.4% | 17.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| Downside Capture | -11.33 | 51.02 |
| Upside Capture | 27.79 | 70.50 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 11.0% | 30.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.57 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 1.67 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 0.77 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 1.15 |
| Up Capture | -36% | 36% | 41% | 38% | 49% | 83% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 35 | 69 | 131 | 407 |
| Down Capture | -88% | -35% | -22% | -12% | 44% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 57 | 120 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 30.5% | 24.7% | 1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.5% | 27.3% | 0.56 | 15.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 31.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -19.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 23.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 7.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.1% | 26.2% | 0.62 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 71.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 45.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 26.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 29.2% | 29.2% | 0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.4% | 25.2% | 0.85 | 76.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 73.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 18.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -1.9% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | -6.3% | -4.0% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.1% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -1.9% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -7.4% | -6.3% | -4.0% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.8% | -1.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/27/2021 | -1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| 1/27/2021 | -3.5% | -5.7% | -14.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -4.1% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.4% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 343.36 | 2,399 | 823,721 | 11,123,491 | Form |
| 2 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10222026 | 339.62 | 2,399 | 814,748 | 11,817,078 | Form |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 345.40 | 1,280 | 442,108 | 13,224,542 | Form |
| 4 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 345.05 | 1,392 | 480,315 | 6,051,905 | Form |
| 5 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 345.00 | 2,399 | 827,655 | 12,831,930 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10292026 | 343.36 | 2,399 | 823,721 | 11,123,491 | Form |
| 2 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10222026 | 339.62 | 2,399 | 814,748 | 11,817,078 | Form |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 345.40 | 1,280 | 442,108 | 13,224,542 | Form |
| 4 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 345.05 | 1,392 | 480,315 | 6,051,905 | Form |
| 5 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 345.00 | 2,399 | 827,655 | 12,831,930 | Form |
| 6 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10082026 | 332.01 | 2,399 | 796,492 | 13,145,272 | Form |
| 7 | Cook, Timothy D | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 332.96 | 191,753 | 63,845,841 | 1,086,833,329 | Form |
| 8 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 333.42 | 46,389 | 15,466,923 | 45,614,903 | Form |
| 9 | Ternus, John | CEO | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 332.94 | 25,412 | 8,460,740 | 19,832,398 | Form |
| 10 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 10012026 | 336.18 | 2,399 | 806,496 | 14,116,871 | Form |
| 11 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 9242026 | 340.06 | 2,399 | 815,804 | 15,095,603 | Form |
| 12 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 330.19 | 1,438 | 474,813 | 10,867,874 | Form |
| 13 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 9102026 | 317.23 | 1,438 | 456,177 | 10,897,485 | Form |
| 14 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 317.01 | 1,439 | 456,177 | 11,345,788 | Form |
| 15 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 310.95 | 1,439 | 447,457 | 11,576,358 | Form |
| 16 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 307.49 | 1,439 | 442,478 | 11,890,023 | Form |
| 17 | Newstead, Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 307.75 | 1,439 | 442,852 | 12,342,929 | Form |
| 18 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 295.14 | 116 | 34,236 | 11,425,755 | Form |
| 19 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 311.02 | 50,000 | 15,551,000 | 1,170,858,428 | Form | |
| 20 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 290.00 | 1,274 | 369,460 | 11,226,770 | Form |
| 21 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 284.76 | 250,000 | 71,189,722 | 1,087,658,219 | Form | |
| 22 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.00 | 1,534 | 421,850 | 3,675,650 | Form |
| 23 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 255.35 | 30,002 | 7,660,875 | 34,933,815 | Form |
| 24 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 254.23 | 64,949 | 16,512,198 | 833,991,449 | Form |
| 25 | Kondo, Chris | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
| 26 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 247.39 | 4,199 | 1,038,787 | 2,168,367 | Form |
| 27 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.81 | 129,963 | 33,375,723 | 842,410,671 | Form |
| 28 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 257.39 | 43,013 | 11,071,078 | 35,181,747 | Form |
| 29 | Adams, Katherine L | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.79 | 47,125 | 12,101,154 | 46,005,698 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| MPS Loria Financial Planners, LLC | $71.0 Mil | 18.7% | 94 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $40.5 Mil | 15.6% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Zullo Investment Group, Inc. | $40.5 Mil | 15.4% | 158 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Clare Market Investments LLC | $60.6 Mil | 12.7% | 167 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $50.4 Mil | 12.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| 1776 Wealth LLC | $31.6 Mil | 12.4% | 146 | New | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $134.4 Mil | 12.8% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Platform Wealth Management, LLC | $61.9 Mil | 16.4% | 82 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Sittner & Nelson, LLC | $39.2 Mil | 14.3% | 573 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Everett Harris & Co /Ca/ | $1.0 Bil | 13.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Cincinnati Financial Corp | $709.9 Mil | 14.3% | 55 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| HCR Wealth Advisors | $129.7 Mil | 13.5% | 241 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Wahed Invest LLC | $95.7 Mil | 12.4% | 225 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Aljian Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 14.9% | 131 | Hold | 13F |
AAPL Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Apple is launching a potentially transformational product cycle with its first foldable iPhone and new AI features. However, this is countered by explicit company guidance for decelerating revenue growth and near-term margin pressure from rising component costs. A massive inventory build adds further uncertainty, making the immediate path for the stock contested.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Branded Hardware Franchise with Recurring Services(Size of Installed Base * Hardware Upgrade Rate * ASP) + (Size of Installed Base * Services Attach Rate * ARPU) Mix shift from lower-margin hardware sales to higher-margin, recurring services revenue.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence is mixed. While early response to the new iPhone is strong, overall company growth is guided to slow, creating a contested near-term outlook.
- The active installed base of devices grew to a record of over 2.5 billion.
- The new iPhone Duo is described as 'the most transformational iPhone since the original'.
- Services gross margin was 76% in the latest quarter, up 40 basis points sequentially.
- The company has over 1.5 billion paid subscriptions, which grew by double digits.
- Company raised prices on iPhone, Mac, and iPad to offset higher memory costs.
PRIMARY RISK
Both iPhone and Services growth are slowing, with total revenue guided to 7-10% from 12% last quarter. Gross margins are guided to fall sequentially to 45-46% due to 'unprecedented' memory costs. A 154.3% YoY inventory surge suggests a potential miscalculation of demand, risking future write-downs.
- Total revenue growth is guided to slow to 7-10% in the December quarter.
- Services revenue growth is guided to slow to 8-9% from 10% in the prior quarter.
- Gross margin is guided to contract to 45-46% from 47.9% sequentially.
- Management described the current memory pricing environment as 'unprecedented'.
- Inventory grew 154.3% year-over-year, while revenue grew only 11.7%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone Revenue Growth | 17% year-over-year for the September quarter - Decelerating | iPhone revenue growth slowed to 17% YoY in the latest quarter, down from 22% in the prior two quarters. Management noted this performance was achieved despite supply constraints and that the company set a record for upgraders, suggesting strong underlying demand for new models like the iPhone Duo. |
| Services Revenue Growth | 10% year-over-year for the September quarter - Decelerating | Services revenue growth has decelerated sequentially over the past three quarters. Management guided for a further slowdown to 8-9% YoY growth in the December quarter, citing headwinds from third-party licensing and foreign exchange. While paid subscriptions grew by double digits, the decelerating revenue trend was a key focus for analysts on the earnings call. |
| Installed base of active devices | over 2.5 billion (Q4 FY2026) | This KPI represents the total addressable market for Apple's high-margin services and future hardware upgrades. Growth in the installed base is the foundation for future services revenue. |
| Paid subscriptions | over 1.5 billion (Q4 FY2026) | This measures the direct monetization of the installed base through recurring revenue streams. Strong growth indicates successful conversion of device users into paying services customers. |
iPhone Duo Cycle vs. Decelerating Fundamentals
BULL VIEW
The new foldable iPhone Duo and integrated AI will ignite a major upgrade cycle within the 2.5 billion device installed base, overcoming temporary supply costs and re-accelerating growth, proving the ecosystem's resilience and pricing power.
CORE TENSION
Can the new iPhone Duo cycle offset guided revenue deceleration to 7-10% and a sequential gross margin decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bears. Company guidance for both revenue and gross margin is decelerating, and the massive inventory build is a tangible, near-term risk that the market has already punished.
BEAR VIEW
Slowing growth is structural. Services are decelerating to 8-9% and a 154.3% inventory build signals weak demand for new hardware, leading to margin compression below the guided 45-46% as component costs rise.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 16, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A cash dividend of $0.27 per share is payable to shareholders of record as of November 12, 2026. |
the December quarter | First Quarter Financial Results Watch: Company provides guidance for the December quarter, including revenue growth between 7% and 10% and gross margin between 45% and 46%. |
1/26/2027 | Peer AI Sentiment Watch: Microsoft and Alphabet earnings calls for commentary on AI monetization, capex, and cloud demand. |
1/27/2027 | Margin Contraction Watch: Actual gross margin versus the 45-46% guided range and management commentary on memory cost trajectory. |
1/27/2027 | Revenue Deceleration Watch: Reported revenue and services growth versus guidance and commentary on demand for new products like iPhone Duo. |
1/27/2027 | Inventory Realization Watch: Inventory levels in the next report, sell-through commentary for the holiday quarter, and any mention of write-downs. |
2/1/2027 | Dell Earnings Report Watch: Peer Dell Technologies (DELL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Alphabet Earnings Report Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
tomorrow | Annual Report Filing Watch: The company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 26, 2026, is scheduled to be filed. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Record Q4 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported record September quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year, and diluted EPS of $2.10, up 14%. | -3.7% $344.63 -> $331.90 |
2026-09-25 | Apple Pay Lawsuit Development Details: A judge certified a class of payment card issuers in an antitrust lawsuit against the company concerning Apple Pay fees. | +0.7% $335.92 -> $338.40 |
2026-09-09 | Fall Product Launch Event Details: Apple unveiled its new product lineup, including the first foldable iPhone Duo, the iPhone 18 Pro, Apple Watch Series 12, and AirPods 5. | +3.3% $316.22 -> $326.57 |
2026-07-30 | Negative Q3 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -9.0% around the July 30, 2026 earnings call, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 2.0% gain. | -8.7% $337.90 -> $308.64 |
2026-07-13 | AI Trade Secret Lawsuit Details: Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and two former employees, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets related to AI hardware development. | -0.1% $315.05 -> $314.59 |
2026-07-08 | Expanded US Chipmaking Commitment Details: The company announced a new multiyear agreement with Broadcom valued at more than $30 billion to manufacture custom silicon and wireless components in the United States. | +1.8% $310.39 -> $315.95 |
2026-05-05 | Supply Chain Strategy Shift Details: Press reports indicated Apple held exploratory discussions with Intel and Samsung about chipmaking services, signaling a shift in managing supply chain risk. | +3.9% $276.34 -> $287.00 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AAPL trades at roughly 19% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.9x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI & CloudMicrosoft offers deeper exposure to enterprise cloud and AI software growth, with higher gross margins of 67.7%. Its business is less exposed to consumer hardware cycles and component cost volatility.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Foundational AI & AdsAlphabet provides exposure to the digital advertising market and has a significant R&D budget of $74.5 billion focused on foundational AI models, with a less hardware-intensive business model.
Apple is a premium hardware franchise whose primary function is to acquire and lock in customers for its increasingly dominant, high-margin services business.
Apple's core business is selling high-margin, differentiated hardware like the iPhone, which builds a large and loyal installed base of over 2.5 billion devices. This captive ecosystem is then monetized through a rapidly growing suite of even higher-margin services, creating a powerful and profitable flywheel. Future growth depends on breakthrough hardware innovations like the iPhone Duo and AI to drive upgrade cycles, which in turn feeds the services engine.
Sustained double-digit growth in the Services segment, successful market adoption of the new iPhone Duo driving an upgrade cycle, and continued gross margin expansion.
A stall in the growth of the active device installed base, significant deceleration in services revenue growth, or an inability to pass on rising component costs, leading to sustained margin compression.
Short-term stock reactions to earnings reports, minor quarterly fluctuations in product mix outside of the core iPhone and Services segments.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's reaction to the launch and sales trajectory of the transformational iPhone Duo and the perceived monetization potential of new AI features like Siri AI integrated across the product lineup.
iPhone
$254.1B TTM (53% of Total)What It Is
Sells a line of smartphones, including the iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, and iPhone 17, to consumers and enterprise customers globally through direct and indirect channels.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and businesses purchase iPhones for their performance, camera capabilities, battery life, design, and deep integration with Apple's software and services ecosystem, which provides a secure and intuitive user experience.
Competition
Services
$123.3B TTM (26% of Total)What It Is
Sells advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content (App Store, Music, TV+), and payment services to its global installed base of device users.
Who Pays & How
Device users pay for subscriptions and content, while developers pay commissions for App Store sales. Customers pay for convenience, access to a vast library of content and apps, and seamless integration across their Apple devices.
Competition
Mac
$37.9B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
Sells a line of personal computers, including laptops (MacBook Neo, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro) and desktops (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio) to consumers, creative professionals, and enterprise customers.
Who Pays & How
Customers purchase Macs for their performance, design, reliability, and security, particularly with the introduction of powerful proprietary Apple Silicon chips and new features like touch capabilities on the MacBook Pro.
Competition
Wearables, Home and Accessories
$35.6B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
Sells smartwatches (Apple Watch), wireless headphones (AirPods, Beats), spatial computers (Apple Vision Pro), and home devices (Apple TV, HomePod) to its consumer base.
Who Pays & How
Consumers buy these products for their tight integration with the iPhone and broader Apple ecosystem, health and fitness tracking features (Apple Watch), and high-quality audio experiences (AirPods).
Competition
iPad
$27.9B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Sells a line of multipurpose tablets, including iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad mini, to consumers, students, and business professionals.
Who Pays & How
Customers buy the iPad for its versatility as a device for content consumption, creativity, and productivity, supported by a vast ecosystem of apps and a portable form factor.
Competition
Apple — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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