Autodesk (ADSK)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $237.45 | Market Cap: $50.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Autodesk (ADSK)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $237.45Market Cap: $50.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Cloud Computing, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Key risksADSK key risks include [1] regulatory and investor scrutiny following an internal investigation into its financial reporting practices, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.7 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Cloud Computing, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Key risksADSK key risks include [1] regulatory and investor scrutiny following an internal investigation into its financial reporting practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Autodesk (ADSK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering investor concerns over sales and marketing optimization impacting subscription growth. Despite exceeding expectations for its fiscal Q1 2027 (ended April 30, 2026) with diluted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.99 (beating estimates of $2.84) and revenue of $1.93 billion (surpassing projections of $1.89 billion), Autodesk experienced a 4.0% stock decline the day after its earnings report on May 28, 2026. This decline was primarily attributed to the company's disclosure that ongoing sales reorganization efforts were temporarily affecting new subscription growth and creating near-term billings pressure, dampening investor enthusiasm despite strong headline numbers.
2. Analyst price target reductions following the Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings report. Post-earnings, several analyst firms revised their price targets downwards, contributing to the negative stock momentum. For example, on May 29, 2026, Loop Capital reduced its price target from $250.00 to $235.00 (maintaining a "hold" rating), BMO Capital Markets lowered its target from $279.00 to $262.00, and Royal Bank of Canada decreased its target from $335.00 to $305.00. These adjustments reflected a more cautious outlook on the stock's near-term valuation.
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Autodesk (ADSK) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering investor concerns over sales and marketing optimization impacting subscription growth. Despite exceeding expectations for its fiscal Q1 2027 (ended April 30, 2026) with diluted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.99 (beating estimates of $2.84) and revenue of $1.93 billion (surpassing projections of $1.89 billion), Autodesk experienced a 4.0% stock decline the day after its earnings report on May 28, 2026. This decline was primarily attributed to the company's disclosure that ongoing sales reorganization efforts were temporarily affecting new subscription growth and creating near-term billings pressure, dampening investor enthusiasm despite strong headline numbers.
2. Analyst price target reductions following the Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings report. Post-earnings, several analyst firms revised their price targets downwards, contributing to the negative stock momentum. For example, on May 29, 2026, Loop Capital reduced its price target from $250.00 to $235.00 (maintaining a "hold" rating), BMO Capital Markets lowered its target from $279.00 to $262.00, and Royal Bank of Canada decreased its target from $335.00 to $305.00. These adjustments reflected a more cautious outlook on the stock's near-term valuation.
3. Market caution regarding the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition and perceived slower growth profile. In May 2026, Autodesk announced a definitive agreement to acquire MaintainX, Inc. for $3.6 billion. While intended to expand its market and strengthen AI capabilities, some analysts expressed concern that this significant acquisition could strain Autodesk's cash position. Additionally, the stock has underperformed the broader market and technology sector over the past year, partly due to a "relatively slower growth profile" compared to some software peers, leading investors to remain cautious about its long-term growth trajectory and customer acquisition payback period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.8% change in ADSK stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 239.40 | 237.38 | -0.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,206 | 7,507 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 19.5% | 24.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.4 | 34.2 | -24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 211 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADSK | -0.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.9% | -2.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 28.7% | -19.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.8% change in ADSK stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 296.01 | 237.38 | -19.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,888 | 7,507 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.1% | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.8 | 34.2 | -39.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 211 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADSK | -19.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.0% | -0.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.3% change in ADSK stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 309.57 | 237.38 | -23.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,347 | 7,507 | 18.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 19.5% | 22.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 65.5 | 34.2 | -47.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 211 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADSK | -23.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.7% | 4.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.0% change in ADSK stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 204.61 | 237.38 | 16.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,104 | 7,507 | 47.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 19.5% | 18.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.5 | 34.2 | -34.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 215 | 211 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADSK | 16.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.0% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 100.5% | 40.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADSK Return | -8% | -34% | 30% | 21% | 0% | -24% | -26% |
| Peers Return | 21% | -24% | 46% | -1% | -7% | -24% | -5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADSK Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 83% | 58% | 14% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 37% | 65% | 48% | 40% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADSK Max Drawdown | -27% | -42% | -17% | -25% | -23% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -38% | -19% | -23% | -33% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PTC, TRMB, BSY, ADBE, SNPS. See ADSK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 219 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 851 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Autodesk's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ADSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 851 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 333.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Autodesk's stock fell -20.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Autodesk (ADSK)
Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) is a leading global software company that provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services. The company's core business revolves around developing tools that enable professionals across various industries to create, simulate, analyze, and manage complex projects and designs digitally.
Autodesk offers a broad portfolio of specialized software. Key products include AutoCAD for general design and drafting, AutoCAD Civil 3D for civil engineering, BIM 360 for construction management, and Fusion 360 for integrated 3D CAD, CAM, and CAE in manufacturing. For the media and entertainment sector, solutions like Maya and 3ds Max provide advanced 3D modeling, animation, and rendering capabilities. Many of these tools are bundled into "Industry Collections" to offer comprehensive suites tailored to specific professional workflows.
The company primarily serves three major markets: architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC); product design and manufacturing; and media and entertainment. Its diverse customer base includes architects designing buildings, engineers developing infrastructure and mechanical products, and artists creating visual effects for films and games. Autodesk sells its products and services both directly and through an extensive network of resellers and distributors worldwide.
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Autodesk is like Adobe, but for architects, engineers, and manufacturers.
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- AutoCAD Civil 3D: A surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering projects.
- BIM 360: A cloud-based software for construction management.
- AutoCAD: Professional software for design, drafting, detailing, and visualization.
- AutoCAD LT: A software specifically for 2D drafting and detailing.
- CAM software: Products for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modeling in manufacturing.
- Fusion 360: An integrated 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool.
- Industry Collections: Bundles of tools tailored for professionals in architecture, engineering, construction, product design, manufacturing, and media & entertainment.
- Inventor: Tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation.
- Vault: Data management software to centralize data, accelerate design processes, and streamline collaboration.
- Maya: 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing software.
- 3ds Max: 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing software.
- ShotGrid: A cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry.
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- Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) firms: These include architectural design firms, civil engineering companies (e.g., those involved in land development, transportation, and environmental projects), and construction companies that rely on Autodesk's design, drafting, BIM (Building Information Modeling), and construction management solutions like AutoCAD Civil 3D, BIM 360, and the Industry Collections for AEC.
- Product Design and Manufacturing companies: This category encompasses businesses involved in mechanical design, product development, and manufacturing processes, utilizing software such as Fusion 360, Inventor, and CAM solutions, as well as the Industry Collections for Product Design & Manufacturing.
- Media and Entertainment companies: This segment includes film studios, animation houses, visual effects (VFX) companies, and game developers that employ Autodesk's 3D modeling, animation, rendering, and production tracking tools like Maya, 3ds Max, and ShotGrid.
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- Amazon (AMZN)
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Andrew Anagnost, President and Chief Executive Officer
Dr. Andrew Anagnost has served as President and CEO of Autodesk since June 2017. He joined Autodesk in 1997 and has been instrumental in the company's strategic transformation to a subscription and cloud-based business model. Before becoming CEO, he held various key positions at Autodesk, including Chief Marketing Officer and Senior Vice President of Business Strategy & Marketing, and he led the development of the company's manufacturing products, such as Autodesk Inventor. Prior to Autodesk, his career included roles at Lockheed Aeronautical Systems Company as a composite structures engineer and propulsion installation engineer, at NASA Ames Research Center as a postdoctoral fellow, and in product management for Exa Corporation. Dr. Anagnost holds a Ph.D. in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering with a minor in Computer Science from Stanford University. He also serves on the board of directors of HubSpot, Inc.
Janesh Moorjani, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Janesh Moorjani was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Autodesk, effective December 16, 2024. He brings over 20 years of experience in the technology industry, with deep expertise in driving growth and efficiency. Most recently, Mr. Moorjani served as CFO and COO of Elastic NV. His prior experience includes executive and leadership roles at prominent technology companies such as Infoblox, VMware, Cisco, PTC, and Goldman Sachs. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of Cohesity.
Deborah Clifford, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer
Debbie Clifford serves as Autodesk's Chief Strategy Officer, guiding the company's growth with a focus on sustainability and impact. She previously served as the Chief Financial Officer of Autodesk from 2021 to 2024. Ms. Clifford played a pivotal role in transitioning Autodesk to a subscription-based model during her earlier tenure in various financial leadership roles at the company. Before rejoining Autodesk as CFO, she served as the Chief Financial Officer of SurveyMonkey (now Momentive) from 2019 to 2021. Her early career included finance positions at Virage, Inc. and Ernst & Young. She is also the Board Chair of the Autodesk Foundation.
Ruth Ann Keene, Executive Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Ruth Ann Keene oversees Autodesk's global legal and government affairs team and provides counsel to the CEO and board of directors. She possesses nearly three decades of experience in the technology industry and legal field. Ms. Keene was previously the Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Unity, where she supported its growth and initial public offering in 2020. Prior to that, she spent 11 years at Autodesk in various roles, including Vice President and Assistant General Counsel. Before her first tenure at Autodesk, she was a technology transactions attorney at Morrison & Foerster LLP. She serves on the board of directors for the Autodesk Foundation and chairs the Board of Directors for the Business Software Alliance.
Steven Blum, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Steven Blum serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer (COO) at Autodesk Inc. In this role, he is responsible for driving the company's overall operational performance and strategic execution. Before becoming COO, Mr. Blum held the position of Senior Vice President of Worldwide Sales and Services at Autodesk. He has significant expertise in leading global teams and managing large-scale operations, having held leadership roles at other prominent tech companies prior to joining Autodesk.
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- Competitive Landscape and Technological Disruption, particularly from Artificial Intelligence (AI): The software industry, in which Autodesk operates, is highly competitive and characterized by rapid technological changes and evolving customer preferences. Autodesk must continuously innovate to maintain its market position against competitors that may offer similar or more advanced solutions at competitive prices. Disruptive technologies, such as AI, could significantly alter the market for Autodesk's products, with AI-driven 3D design tools potentially automating tasks and leading to a reduction in licenses or customer churn.
- Economic Uncertainty and Dependence on Cyclical Industries: Autodesk's business is significantly influenced by global economic and political conditions. Economic downturns or recessions can lead to reduced demand for its products, impacting financial performance. The company's performance is closely tied to the health of industries like construction and manufacturing, which are susceptible to economic cycles. Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions can also affect Autodesk's operations and financial performance.
- Challenges and Friction Related to the Subscription and Licensing Model: While Autodesk's transition to a subscription-based revenue model has been a financial strength, there is ongoing friction from its newer transaction model, which could impact renewal rates and billings. Customers have expressed outcry regarding the subscription model, citing concerns about perceived price gouging, especially given Autodesk's significant market position in certain areas. Furthermore, the company faces legal and compliance risks related to its licensing model, including potential audits for indirect usage or cross-entity use, which could result in financial liabilities and reputational damage.
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1. Integration of AI and Cloud-Native Platforms: Autodesk is heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud-first industry solutions to reimagine how industries design, make, and operate. The company's AI-first industry clouds, such as Forma, Fusion, and Flow, are designed to connect various professionals through AI-native, end-to-end workflows, aiming to deliver better outcomes for customers and stronger business results for Autodesk. Key deliverables through 2025 include enhanced cloud simulation, automated manufacturability checks, and embedded generative AI assistants to boost productivity and customer retention. The company also emphasizes AI-powered features like AutoConstrain, which are increasing seat value and driving extension attach rates.
2. Expansion within the Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations (AECO) Sector: The AECO sector is a significant contributor to Autodesk's revenue growth, with continued investments in data centers, infrastructure, and industrial buildings. Autodesk's Forma platform is strategically positioned to lead end-to-end solutions in AECO, and the company is expanding its Construction Cloud to cover the entire lifecycle of physical assets. Management estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of over $10 billion in new construction and infrastructure needs, supporting sustained double-digit top-line growth.
3. Growth in Manufacturing with Fusion 360: The Fusion 360 platform, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool, is expanding rapidly among manufacturers of all sizes. This expansion supports the digitization and modernization of the manufacturing sector as it embraces cloud- and AI-powered workflows. Fusion's integrated design, simulation, and manufacturing tools are expected to deepen Autodesk's role in customers' workflows and drive broader adoption.
4. Increased Multi-Product Adoption and Subscription Revenue: Autodesk's growth strategy focuses on scaling platform adoption, expanding adjacent workflows, and monetizing AI productivity gains, all while maintaining its robust subscription-based recurring revenue model. The company aims to increase multi-product adoption in enterprise accounts, seeking rising attach rates to shift more customers from single-seat to suite-based Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). The company's net revenue retention rate remaining above 110% in constant currency indicates strong customer satisfaction and expanded usage of its products.
5. Geographic Penetration in Emerging Markets: Autodesk is targeting growth in international markets, particularly in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific). Specific initiatives include focusing on infrastructure in India and Southeast Asia, and industrial digitization in DACH (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) and Japan, supported by channel partners, enterprise agreements, and localized go-to-market strategies.
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Share Repurchases
- Autodesk approved a $5 billion share-repurchase authorization.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $1.101 billion in fiscal year 2023, $795 million in fiscal year 2024, and $852 million in fiscal year 2025.
- Approximately 1.3 million shares were repurchased for $353 million at an average price of $269 per share in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Share Issuance
- Autodesk's share count has seen a slow decline of about 5% over the past decade, largely due to share repurchases offsetting dilution from stock-based compensation.
- Shares outstanding were 0.217 billion in 2025 (a 0.46% increase from 2024), 0.216 billion in 2024 (a 0.92% decline from 2023), and 0.218 billion in 2023 (a 1.8% decline from 2022).
- In Q4 2026, the company had 212 million shares outstanding, which was a 0.5% decrease from the prior quarter.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2021, Autodesk acquired Innovyze, a provider of smart water infrastructure modeling and simulation technology, for $1 billion.
- Autodesk announced the acquisition of Payapps, a cloud-based construction claim software, in January 2024, following a previous collaboration.
- In February 2024, Autodesk entered into an agreement to acquire the PIX business of X2X, a production management solution for secure review and content collaboration in the media and entertainment industry.
Capital Expenditures
- Autodesk's capital expenditures averaged $51.6 million annually for fiscal years ending January 2021 to 2025.
- Annual capital expenditures were $91 million in 2021, $56 million in 2022, $40 million in 2023, $31 million in 2024, and $40 million in 2025.
- For fiscal year 2027, Autodesk expects approximately $50 million in capital expenditures, which are primarily related to funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 182.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| Rev LTM | 5,597 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,008 |
| FCF LTM | 1,781 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,198 |
| CFO LTM | 1,860 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,287 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 28.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.6 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.2 |
| P/E | 32.1 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -50.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -77.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations | 3,583 | 2,937 | 2,580 | 2,278 | 1,969 |
| AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT | 1,787 | 1,572 | 1,462 | 1,387 | 1,244 |
| Manufacturing | 1,379 | 1,189 | 1,063 | 978 | 876 |
| Media and Entertainment | 332 | 315 | 295 | 291 | 259 |
| Other | 125 | 118 | 97 | 71 | 38 |
| Total | 7,206 | 6,131 | 5,497 | 5,005 | 4,386 |
| $ Mil | 2008 | 2007 | 2005 | 2004 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design Solutions | 814 | 737 | 495 | 315 | 520 |
| Media & Ent | 91 | 56 | |||
| Discreet | 21 | 3 | -5 | ||
| Total | 905 | 793 | 517 | 318 | 515 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $237.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 50.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/1985 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -27.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $217.31 | $255.13 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 9.2% | -7.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 44.1% | 35.5% |
| Downside Capture | -62.42 | 81.55 |
| Upside Capture | -45.17 | 36.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -14.3% | 18.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.17 | -0.33 | 0.23 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | -1.33 | -1.00 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.89 |
| Down Beta | 0.83 | 1.09 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Up Capture | -120% | -109% | -34% | 1% | 16% | 101% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 18 | 31 | 62 | 128 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 67% | -12% | 46% | 114% | 99% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 32 | 63 | 123 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADSK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | -21.8% | 35.4% | -0.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 31.3% | 24.9% | 1.04 | 5.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.3% | 12.7% | 0.99 | 18.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 28.1% | 0.64 | -6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.1% | 19.5% | 1.19 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 14.1% | 0.72 | 17.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.4% | 42.9% | -1.33 | 11.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADSK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | -4.6% | 35.7% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.7% | 25.6% | 0.66 | 57.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 62.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 9.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 47.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.2% | 53.4% | 0.48 | 29.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADSK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | 15.0% | 36.5% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.7% | 24.8% | 0.87 | 64.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 64.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.8% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 17.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 45.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.5% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 19.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -4.0% | -3.0% | -19.0% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.3% | 13.1% | -1.5% |
| 11/25/2025 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | 9.1% | 13.1% | 11.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.9% | -7.8% | -7.3% |
| 11/26/2024 | -8.6% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.1% | -3.0% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -4.0% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.5% | -17.9% | -19.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -4.0% | -3.0% | -19.0% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.3% | 13.1% | -1.5% |
| 11/25/2025 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | 9.1% | 13.1% | 11.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.9% | -7.8% | -7.3% |
| 11/26/2024 | -8.6% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.1% | -3.0% | 6.7% |
| 6/11/2024 | 5.4% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.5% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| 11/21/2023 | -6.9% | -1.8% | 11.1% |
| 8/23/2023 | 2.1% | 8.4% | -0.2% |
| 5/25/2023 | 0.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | -12.9% | -9.1% | -9.5% |
| 11/22/2022 | -5.7% | -3.3% | -10.0% |
| 8/24/2022 | 2.7% | -5.9% | -13.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | 10.3% | 8.7% | -7.7% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.7% | -3.7% | -2.8% |
| 11/23/2021 | -15.5% | -17.9% | -7.6% |
| 8/25/2021 | -9.4% | -11.4% | -13.9% |
| 5/27/2021 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| 2/25/2021 | -2.8% | -6.5% | -5.3% |
| 11/24/2020 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 16.4% |
| 8/25/2020 | -1.6% | 0.5% | -12.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -4.0% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.5% | -17.9% | -19.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 06/10/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 06/10/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 5/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Revenue | 2.00 Bil | 2.01 Bil | 2.02 Bil | 6.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.89 Bil for Q1 2027 | |
| Q2 2027 EPS GAAP | 1.84 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 8.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.75 for Q1 2027 | |
| Q2 2027 EPS non-GAAP | 3.1 | 3.12 | 3.14 | 9.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.84 for Q1 2027 | |
| 2027 Billings | 8.51 Bil | 8.54 Bil | 8.58 Bil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 8.53 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Revenue | 8.15 Bil | 8.19 Bil | 8.21 Bil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 8.13 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 GAAP operating margin | 26.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 27.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Non-GAAP operating margin | 39.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 38.75% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 EPS GAAP | 8.07 | 8.35 | 8.63 | 3.4% | Raised | Guidance: 8.07 for 2027 | |
| 2027 EPS non-GAAP | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 12.4 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Free cash flow | 2.73 Bil | 2.76 Bil | 2.80 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.75 Bil for 2027 | |
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Revenue | 1.89 Bil | 1.89 Bil | 1.90 Bil | -0.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.91 Bil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 EPS GAAP | 1.68 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 18.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.49 for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 EPS non-GAAP | 2.82 | 2.84 | 2.86 | 8.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.63 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2027 Billings | 8.48 Bil | 8.53 Bil | 8.58 Bil | 13.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Revenue | 8.10 Bil | 8.13 Bil | 8.17 Bil | 13.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.16 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 GAAP operating margin | 26.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 23.0% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Non-GAAP operating margin | 38.5% | 38.75% | 39.0% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 37.5% for 2026 | |
| 2027 EPS GAAP | 7.76 | 8.07 | 8.39 | 54.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.25 for 2026 | |
| 2027 EPS non-GAAP | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 21.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.2 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Free cash flow | 2.70 Bil | 2.75 Bil | 2.80 Bil | 20.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.27 Bil for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 1.90 Bil | 1.91 Bil | 1.92 Bil | 5.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.80 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 EPS GAAP | 1.4 | 1.49 | 1.57 | 7.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.38 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 EPS non-GAAP | 2.59 | 2.63 | 2.67 | 5.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.5 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Billings | 7.46 Bil | 7.50 Bil | 7.53 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 7.40 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 7.15 Bil | 7.16 Bil | 7.17 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP operating margin | 23.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 21.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 37.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 37.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 EPS GAAP | 5.16 | 5.25 | 5.33 | 7.4% | Raised | Guidance: 4.88 for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS non-GAAP | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 3.3% | Raised | Guidance: 9.89 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 2.26 Bil | 2.27 Bil | 2.29 Bil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.24 Bil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/23/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cahill, John T | Revocable Trust. | Buy | 6232026 | 189.20 | 2,000 | 378,400 | 756,800 | Form | |
| 2 | Anagnost, Andrew | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6172026 | 202.66 | 2,460 | 498,544 | 41,132,482 | Form |
| 3 | Moorjani, Janesh | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 197.67 | 2,500 | 494,175 | 10,079,786 | Form |
| 4 | Smith, Stacy J | Direct | Buy | 5292026 | 231.17 | 3,435 | 794,054 | 6,129,822 | Form | |
| 5 | Howard, Ayanna | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 325.00 | 917 | 298,025 | 1,129,700 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cahill, John T | Revocable Trust. | Buy | 6232026 | 189.20 | 2,000 | 378,400 | 756,800 | Form | |
| 2 | Anagnost, Andrew | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 6172026 | 202.66 | 2,460 | 498,544 | 41,132,482 | Form |
| 3 | Moorjani, Janesh | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 197.67 | 2,500 | 494,175 | 10,079,786 | Form |
| 4 | Smith, Stacy J | Direct | Buy | 5292026 | 231.17 | 3,435 | 794,054 | 6,129,822 | Form | |
| 5 | Howard, Ayanna | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 325.00 | 917 | 298,025 | 1,129,700 | Form | |
| 6 | Blum, Steven M | EVP, Chief Operating Officer | Family Trust | Sell | 9092025 | 323.75 | 22,420 | 7,258,476 | 4,240,802 | Form |
| 7 | Keene, Ruth Ann | EVP, Corp Affairs, CLO | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 315.10 | 2,761 | 869,991 | 25,288,350 | Form |
| 8 | Howard, Ayanna | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 325.00 | 3,159 | 1,026,675 | 1,427,725 | Form | |
| 9 | Pearce, Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 323.06 | 6,129 | 1,980,040 | 4,300,263 | Form |
| 10 | Pearce, Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 315.00 | 3,251 | 1,024,065 | 6,123,600 | Form |
| 11 | Pearce, Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302025 | 310.00 | 3,110 | 964,100 | 7,034,210 | Form |
| 12 | Pearce, Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 305.00 | 2,544 | 775,920 | 7,869,305 | Form |
| 13 | Pearce, Rebecca | EVP, Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 300.00 | 486 | 145,800 | 8,503,500 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 29, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Investments LLC | $202.3 Mil | 11.9% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $49.1 Mil | 5.9% | 24 | TRIM -13.4% | 13F |
| Capco Asset Management, LLC | $21.1 Mil | 5.7% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $30.9 Mil | 5.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $180.6 Mil | 3.9% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $83.8 Mil | 3.3% | 25 | TRIM -12.5% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $5.8 Mil | 2.1% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $103.5 Mil | 1.8% | 44 | ADD +39.9% | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.5% | 41 | ADD +54.6% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $74.0 Mil | 0.7% | 44 | TRIM -32.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starboard Value LP | $296.5 Mil | 5.6% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $80.1 Mil | 3.8% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Greenvale Capital LLP | $54.8 Mil | 5.1% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BWCP, LP | $30.8 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $21.9 Mil | 4.6% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| 2Xideas AG | $7.4 Mil | 2.1% | 50 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $74.0 Mil | 0.7% | 44 | TRIM -32.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $49.1 Mil | 5.9% | 24 | TRIM -13.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $83.8 Mil | 3.3% | 25 | TRIM -12.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Investments LLC | $202.3 Mil | 11.9% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $180.6 Mil | 3.9% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $103.5 Mil | 1.8% | 44 | ADD +39.9% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $83.8 Mil | 3.3% | 25 | TRIM -12.5% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $74.0 Mil | 0.7% | 44 | TRIM -32.2% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $49.1 Mil | 5.9% | 24 | TRIM -13.4% | 13F |
| Tensor Edge Capital, LLC | $30.9 Mil | 5.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Capco Asset Management, LLC | $21.1 Mil | 5.7% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $10.0 Mil | 1.5% | 41 | ADD +54.6% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $5.8 Mil | 2.1% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
ADSK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Autodesk is demonstrating strong operating leverage, with margins expanding 4.8 percentage points as revenue grows 18.3%. The company recently raised its full-year outlook for revenue and free cash flow. A $3.6 billion acquisition is set to open a new $40 billion market, though near-term execution on this and a sales reorganization are key areas to monitor.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
SaaS & Platform(Number of Subscriptions x Average Revenue Per Subscription) + Consumption Revenue Operating leverage on a high-gross-margin, recurring revenue base, driven by sales and marketing efficiency and disciplined R&D spending.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is winning customers by consolidating workflows and just acquired its way into a new $40 billion operations market.
- FY2027 revenue guidance was raised to a range of $8.155 billion to $8.215 billion.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded by 4.8 percentage points to 27%.
- The AECO segment grew from 1,969 to 3,583 in 2026.
- A $3.6 billion acquisition of MaintainX opens a stated $40 billion addressable market.
- Net revenue retention was slightly above the 100% to 110% range as of April 30, 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The combination of a major sales force reorganization and the company's largest-ever acquisition ($3.6 billion) could disrupt new business momentum and fall short of synergy targets, revealing a weakening core.
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO) decreased 6% sequentially in the last quarter.
- Billings growth was 18% YoY in Q1 FY27.
- Management guidance incorporates prudence for disruption from its sales optimization plan.
- The company plans to absorb margin dilution from the large MaintainX acquisition.
- The stock reacted negatively (-2.0%) to the last earnings report despite a guidance raise.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Billings Growth | 18% year-over-year in Q1 FY27 - Decelerating | The sharp deceleration in reported billings growth is primarily due to lapping significant, non-recurring tailwinds from a new transaction model and a transition to annual billings for multi-year contracts. Management stated these factors created 'noise' that will now fade, and that the 'underlying momentum of the business was consistent with prior quarters'. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) | $7.81 billion as of April 30, 2026 | The sequential decline is attributed to typical fourth-quarter seasonality and a strategic shift to shorter contract durations by reducing discounts on multi-year deals. Management views this as a positive long-term 'economic trade-off' for better price realization. |
| Net Revenue Retention Rate (NR3) | Slightly above the range of 100% to 110% (As of April 30, 2026) | This metric measures the year-over-year change in recurring revenue from the existing customer base. A rate above 100% indicates that revenue growth from existing customers (through upgrades, expansion, and price increases) is more than offsetting any customer churn or contraction. |
| Recurring Revenue as a percentage of Net Revenue | 97% (Three months ended April 30, 2026) | This indicates the high predictability of the company's revenue stream, as the vast majority comes from recurring subscription and maintenance plans rather than one-time sales. |
Leading Indicators vs. Forward Guidance
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the raised full-year guidance for revenue and cash flow, seeing it as management's confident signal that underlying business momentum is strong and recent softness in bookings is temporary.
CORE TENSION
Can the company's raised FY27 revenue guidance to over $8.1 billion overcome investor concern from a 6% sequential decline in its backlog?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Management's decision to raise full-year guidance after seeing the Q1 results provides a direct, forward-looking counterpoint to the concerns raised by the backward-looking sequential metric.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 6% sequential drop in remaining performance obligations as a clear warning sign of a slowdown, arguing that the sales reorganization is causing more disruption than admitted.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/26/2026 | Synopsys Earnings Report Watch: Peer Synopsys (SNPS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/10/2026 | Adobe Earnings Report Watch: Peer Adobe (ADBE) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer AI Advancements Shift Narrative Watch: Peer earnings calls from PTC, Trimble, and others revealing major AI-native product launches or customer wins. |
11/23/2026 | Go-to-Market Disruption Materializes Watch: Billings or revenue miss versus guidance; negative commentary on sales productivity or new business momentum. |
later in fiscal 2027 | MaintainX Acquisition Headwinds Watch: Deal closing announcement, details of debt financing, and updated guidance reflecting margin dilution and integration costs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-06-04 | Flex Offering Made More Accessible Details: The company lowered the minimum purchase for Autodesk Flex to 33 tokens for $99, a reduction from 100 tokens for $300, to make it more affordable for small businesses. | +0.2% $229.60 -> $229.96 |
2026-06-03 | Strategic Collaboration with AWS Details: The company announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services, with Fusion products to become available via AWS Marketplace. | -1.3% $236.66 -> $233.64 |
2026-05-28 | Announced Largest-Ever Acquisition Details: Autodesk announced a definitive agreement to acquire MaintainX for approximately $3.6 billion in cash, advancing its strategy to converge design, make, and operate workflows. | -2.4% $237.00 -> $231.31 |
2026-05-28 | Q1 FY27 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported strong Q1 FY27 results and raised guidance for FY27 revenue, EPS, and free cash flow. The stock had a negative two-day reaction of -2.0%. | -2.4% $237.00 -> $231.31 |
2026-04-15 | Jefferies Initiates Coverage Details: An analyst note initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and a $300 price target, describing Autodesk as a "durable double-digit grower." | +6.4% $228.59 -> $243.16 |
2026-02-26 | Strong Q4 FY26 Results Details: The company reported strong Q4 results and a robust FY27 outlook. The stock had a positive two-day reaction of 9.0% following the earnings call dated 2026-02-26. | +9.4% $224.81 -> $245.87 |
2026-01-22 | Workforce Reduction Announced Details: The company announced it would lay off about 7% of its workforce, or roughly 1,000 employees, as the final phase of its sales and marketing optimization program. | +4.9% $257.44 -> $270.00 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ADSK trades at roughly 46% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market), around the 98th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
PTC - PTC Inc.
Pure-play manufacturing focusPTC offers more concentrated exposure to the industrial and manufacturing digital transformation, a key growth driver for Autodesk's MFG segment. Its AI roadmap is reportedly resonating well with customers.
TRMB - Trimble Navigation Limited
Hardware and software integratorTrimble provides a different model, integrating hardware, software, and services across construction, agriculture, and transportation. This offers exposure to the physical-world application of digital models, not just the software itself.
Autodesk is a SaaS company leveraging its dominant position in design software to build a converged 'Design, Make, and Operate' platform, with AI and strategic acquisitions as key catalysts for expanding its addressable market.
Autodesk is transitioning from a portfolio of best-in-class design tools to an integrated cloud platform that connects workflows from initial design through manufacturing, construction, and now, with the MaintainX acquisition, into operations. This 'convergence' strategy aims to create a powerful data and context loop, which is essential for developing valuable, industry-specific AI agents. The company is monetizing this through a resilient subscription model while expanding into consumption-based offerings, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the entire project lifecycle.
Sustained or accelerating growth in the AECO and Manufacturing segments, successful integration and scaling of the MaintainX acquisition, and announcements of new AI-driven products that are monetized through consumption or higher-tier subscriptions.
Decelerating revenue growth, particularly in cloud products like Fusion and Forma; significant disruption from the go-to-market reorganization impacting new business; or evidence that competitors are gaining traction with their own platform or AI strategies.
Short-term stock price reactions to quarterly earnings beats or misses that don't alter the long-term platform and AI strategy. Fluctuations in billings due to changes in contract duration.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration of the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition, which significantly expands the company's TAM into operations and strengthens its data-driven AI strategy. The next earnings report is scheduled for November 23, 2026.
Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations (AECO)
$3.6B TTM (50% of Total)What It Is
Sells a portfolio of software, including the AEC Collection (with Revit and AutoCAD Civil 3D) and cloud platform Forma for Construction, to professionals in the building, infrastructure, and industrial project sectors to improve how projects are designed, built, and operated.
Who Pays & How
Architects, engineers, construction firms, and project owners pay for AECO solutions to design, build, and maintain higher-quality, more predictable, and more energy-efficient projects. They use tools like Revit for Building Information Modeling (BIM) to make better-informed decisions and collaborate more effectively.
Competition
AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT
$1.8B TTM (25% of Total)What It Is
Sells AutoCAD, a customizable CAD application for professional design and drafting, and AutoCAD LT, a version for professional drafting and detailing. These products are used across industries from construction and civil engineering to manufacturing.
Who Pays & How
Design and engineering professionals across multiple industries pay for AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT for their established, feature-rich capabilities in 2D drafting and 3D design. It is often a foundational tool for many design workflows.
Competition
Manufacturing (MFG)
$1.4B TTM (19% of Total)What It Is
Sells software like Fusion (a cloud-based 3D CAD, CAM, and CAE tool), Inventor, and the Product Design & Manufacturing Collection to manufacturers in automotive, industrial machinery, and consumer products industries.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers and product designers pay for these tools to create comprehensive digital design, engineering, and production solutions. They use the software to go from 3D design to digital prototyping, validating form, fit, and function before a product is built.
Competition
Media and Entertainment (M&E)
$332M TTM (5% of Total)What It Is
Sells tools like Maya and 3ds Max for 3D modeling, animation, and visual effects to film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals.
Who Pays & How
Creative professionals in the media and entertainment industry pay for these tools to create compelling effects, 3D characters, and digital worlds for movies, games, and design visualization.
Competition
Autodesk — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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