Pagaya Technologies (PGY)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $19.09 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Pagaya Technologies (PGY)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $19.09Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 16% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60% Key risksPGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 60% |
| Key risksPGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Pagaya Technologies (PGY) stock has gained about 40% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Pagaya Technologies delivered strong fiscal Q2 2026 results that significantly beat analyst expectations and led to a raised full-year net income guidance.
The company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on July 30, 2026, showcasing record performance. Network volume increased 33% year-over-year to $3.5 billion, surpassing the company's outlook of $2.875 - $3.075 billion. Total revenue and other income grew 19% year-over-year to $387 million, exceeding the outlook of $345 - $365 million. GAAP net income rose to $45 million (up 189% year-over-year from $15.6 million in Q2 2025), with basic EPS at $0.55 (up 169% year-over-year from $0.20 in Q2 2025). Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA climbed 43% year-over-year to $124 million. Following this robust performance, Pagaya raised its full-year 2026 GAAP net income guidance by approximately 25% at the midpoint to a range of $155 million-$180 million.
2. The company demonstrated strong capital markets execution with increased and upsized asset-backed securities (ABS) transactions.
During the period, Pagaya successfully completed significant ABS transactions, indicating robust demand for its securitized products. On July 27, 2026, Pagaya issued an AAA-rated upsized $900 million personal loan ABS transaction (PAID 2026-5), marking its largest personal loan ABS transaction since 2022. This transaction brought Pagaya's total issuance for 2026 to a record $7.5 billion. Preceding this, on July 16, 2026, the company closed a $750 million Auto ABS transaction (RPM 2026-4), which was its largest auto ABS deal to date. These deals were part of three company-record-breaking transactions in the year, highlighting strong execution in a key aspect of its business model.
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Pagaya Technologies (PGY) stock has gained about 40% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Pagaya Technologies delivered strong fiscal Q2 2026 results that significantly beat analyst expectations and led to a raised full-year net income guidance.
The company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on July 30, 2026, showcasing record performance. Network volume increased 33% year-over-year to $3.5 billion, surpassing the company's outlook of $2.875 - $3.075 billion. Total revenue and other income grew 19% year-over-year to $387 million, exceeding the outlook of $345 - $365 million. GAAP net income rose to $45 million (up 189% year-over-year from $15.6 million in Q2 2025), with basic EPS at $0.55 (up 169% year-over-year from $0.20 in Q2 2025). Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA climbed 43% year-over-year to $124 million. Following this robust performance, Pagaya raised its full-year 2026 GAAP net income guidance by approximately 25% at the midpoint to a range of $155 million-$180 million.
2. The company demonstrated strong capital markets execution with increased and upsized asset-backed securities (ABS) transactions.
During the period, Pagaya successfully completed significant ABS transactions, indicating robust demand for its securitized products. On July 27, 2026, Pagaya issued an AAA-rated upsized $900 million personal loan ABS transaction (PAID 2026-5), marking its largest personal loan ABS transaction since 2022. This transaction brought Pagaya's total issuance for 2026 to a record $7.5 billion. Preceding this, on July 16, 2026, the company closed a $750 million Auto ABS transaction (RPM 2026-4), which was its largest auto ABS deal to date. These deals were part of three company-record-breaking transactions in the year, highlighting strong execution in a key aspect of its business model.
3. Positive revisions to the company's credit rating outlook and multiple analyst price target increases contributed to positive sentiment.
Fitch Ratings revised Pagaya's rating outlook to "Positive" from "Stable" on July 23, 2026, affirming the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B'. Fitch cited Pagaya's momentum in profitability, reduced leverage, and expanded interest coverage as reasons for the upgrade. Concurrently, several analysts raised their price targets and reiterated positive ratings. On July 31, 2026, B. Riley Financial increased its price target from $32.00 to $36.00 with a "buy" rating. Citizens JMP raised its price target from $22.00 to $25.00 with a "market outperform" rating, and Canaccord Genuity Group upped its target price from $32.00 to $36.00, maintaining a "buy" rating. Earlier, on June 10, 2026, Texas Capital upgraded Pagaya Technologies to a "strong-buy" rating.
4. Pagaya exhibited significant operational leverage and ongoing success of its AI-driven platform.
The fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report underscored the company's operational efficiency, with core operating expenses declining 6% year-over-year and remaining broadly flat for approximately 18 months. Management indicated that the existing AI-driven platform is capable of supporting substantially more volume and additional partners with minimal extra investment. The company's "AI-focused fintech" approach and "AI-driven product solutions" are consistently highlighted as fundamental drivers of its expanding network volume and enhanced profitability, creating a "flywheel" effect where increased partner activity and product adoption compound growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.7% change in PGY stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.89 | 19.27 | 38.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,261 | 1,326 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 9.6% | 48.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 12.6 | -9.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 82 | 83 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGY | 38.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 56.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.9% | 50.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.6% change in PGY stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.39 | 19.27 | -0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,216 | 1,326 | 9.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.2 | -3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 83 | -5.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGY | -0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 51.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.0% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.9% change in PGY stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.05 | 19.27 | -35.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,050 | 1,326 | 26.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 1.2 | -44.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 76 | 83 | -8.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGY | -35.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 55.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.0% | 47.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.6% change in PGY stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.92 | 19.27 | -39.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 523 | 1,326 | 153.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.5 | 1.2 | -65.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 83 | -31.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PGY | -39.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 46.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 100.3% | 39.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PGY Return | - | -80% | 11% | -44% | 125% | -16% | -76% |
| Peers Return | 60% | -74% | 162% | 21% | 4% | 5% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PGY Win Rate | - | 29% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 27% | 55% | 45% | 55% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PGY Max Drawdown | - | - | -59% | -53% | -53% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -77% | -51% | -41% | -55% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UPST, SOFI, AFRM, LPRO, ALLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -46.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 85.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | PGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -46.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 85.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Pagaya Technologies (PGY)
Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is a financial technology company that specializes in using artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the lending process for its partners. The company develops and implements proprietary AI technology and related software solutions designed to assist financial institutions in originating loans and other financial assets more effectively and efficiently. Essentially, Pagaya acts as a technology enabler, providing the analytical backbone for partners to make informed lending decisions and streamline their origination processes.
Pagaya's primary offerings are its advanced AI models and software platforms that integrate into the operations of various financial entities. Its customer base includes a diverse range of partners, such as high-growth financial technology companies, traditional incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. By leveraging Pagaya's AI capabilities, these partners can potentially expand their lending capacity, improve risk assessment, and offer financial products to a broader spectrum of consumers and businesses in markets across the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands.
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Stripe for AI-driven loan origination: Like Stripe simplifies payment processing for businesses, Pagaya provides AI technology that simplifies and improves loan origination decisions for financial institutions.
An 'Intel Inside' for financial institutions' lending decisions: Similar to how Intel provides the core processing power for computers, Pagaya offers essential AI technology that powers and enhances the lending decisions of its financial partners.
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- AI-powered Loan Origination Platform: Pagaya develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist its partners in originating loans and other assets.
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Pagaya Technologies (PGY) sells its proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions primarily to other companies. While specific names of individual customer companies are not typically disclosed by Pagaya, their major customers fall into the following categories of financial institutions and service providers:
- High-growth financial technology companies: These are other fintech firms that utilize Pagaya's AI to enhance their loan origination and asset management processes.
- Incumbent financial institutions: Traditional banks and credit unions that integrate Pagaya's technology into their lending operations.
- Auto finance providers: Companies specializing in the origination and servicing of automobile loans.
- Brokers: Entities that facilitate lending activities and leverage Pagaya's platform.
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Here are the key risks to Pagaya Technologies (PGY):
- Reliance on Securitization Markets and Exposure to Credit Risk: Pagaya Technologies heavily depends on securitization, primarily through asset-backed securities (ABS), for its funding model. In 2024, approximately 90% of its funding was derived from ABS securitizations. The company faces significant risks from market volatility, deterioration in credit conditions, and reduced investor appetite, which could severely impact its ability to fund operations. Furthermore, regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. (e.g., risk-retention, Volcker Rule) and proposed Israeli securitization frameworks could impose compliance burdens and limit access to investors. Pagaya retains at least 5% of each ABS issuance to comply with risk-retention regulations, exposing it to credit risk through these retained interests. Any decline in the performance of these underlying loans, many of which are "second-look" loans originally rejected by traditional lenders, directly affects Pagaya's balance sheet and investor confidence in its underwriting capabilities.
- Intense Competition in the Fintech Industry: The financial technology sector is highly competitive and characterized by rapid innovation. Pagaya Technologies operates in this environment, facing numerous players vying for market share. The company must continuously differentiate its offerings and maintain its technological lead to avoid erosion of its market position by competitors with similar or superior artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
- Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Conditions and Regulatory Changes: Pagaya's business performance is susceptible to broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, all of which can impact investor confidence and the availability of funding. Tighter credit conditions, for example, could lead to a slowdown in loan origination volumes, challenging Pagaya's volume-dependent business model. Additionally, the company operates in a dynamic regulatory landscape concerning AI, machine learning, and financial services, where evolving rules could lead to increased compliance costs or restrict its operational flexibility.
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The emerging threat for Pagaya Technologies is the increasing capability and strategic imperative for its financial institution and financial technology partners to develop and implement their own proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions for loan origination and asset management. As AI tools become more accessible and sophisticated, and as partners gain more experience and build internal data science teams, they may choose to insource these critical capabilities, thereby reducing or eliminating their reliance on third-party providers like Pagaya.
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Pagaya Technologies (PGY) operates in several significant addressable markets related to artificial intelligence in financial technology and lending.
One direct area for Pagaya Technologies is the market for AI in lending. The global artificial intelligence (AI) in lending market was valued at approximately $11.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $37.28 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2%. In 2023, North America held a dominant share of this market, valued at approximately US$2.8 billion.
Another closely related market is AI platform lending. The global AI platform lending market size was valued at USD 128.06 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 1.16 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of over 24.7% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to command a 32% revenue share in this market by 2035.
Pagaya's services also fall within the broader loan origination software market. Globally, this market was valued at USD 6.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 19.69 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 13.2% between 2026 and 2033. Specifically for North America, the loan origination software market is projected to hold a 43% share by 2035. Another estimate places the global loan origination software market at USD 6.58 billion in 2025, growing to $11.48 billion in 2030.
Furthermore, Pagaya operates within the larger artificial intelligence in fintech market. The global AI in fintech market was estimated at US$22.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach US$79.4 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 19.8% from 2023 to 2030. The U.S. segment of the AI in fintech market alone generated approximately USD 3.3 billion in revenue in 2022 and is expected to reach about USD 9.36 billion by 2030.
Pagaya Technologies itself anticipates becoming a multi-product lending technology enterprise with a "multi-trillion dollar addressable market" in the U.S. over the next few years.
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Expansion of Partner Network and New Verticals: Pagaya is actively onboarding new financial institution partners, including large U.S. banks, auto captives, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) providers. For instance, the company recently announced onboarding Achieve, GLS, and a leading Buy Now Pay Later provider. Pagaya has also expanded its point-of-sale (POS) business with a bank partner set to go live in the second half of 2024, and added Elavon (U.S. Bank's Merchant Services and Payment Solutions) to its POS vertical. This expansion into new partnerships and product verticals, such as auto and POS financing, widens its market reach within the U.S. consumer credit landscape.
- Deepening Existing Partner Relationships and Multi-Product Adoption: A significant driver of growth comes from expanding the volume and breadth of services offered to existing partners, encouraging them to adopt multiple Pagaya products. Multi-product partners currently account for a substantial portion of the company's network volume. Pagaya's CEO, Gal Krubiner, highlighted that the company's "earning power and cash flow generation will become more robust as partners continue maturing into multiproduct relationships." The company emphasizes expanding products to boost partner customer value.
- Enhancement of Unit Economics and Monetization: Pagaya is focused on improving the profitability of each transaction by enhancing its unit economics. This is reflected in the growth of its fee revenue less production costs (FRLPC), which significantly outpaced network volume growth in Q1 2024, increasing by 84% year-over-year. The company is improving unit economics with its lending partners as channels scale and aims to maintain a fee-related-performance margin between 4% and 5%.
- Continued Advancement and Application of AI Technology: Pagaya's proprietary artificial intelligence technology is central to its value proposition. The ongoing refinement and expansion of its AI, particularly for loan origination, credit scoring, and asset-backed securities, are expected to lead to higher transaction volumes, improved margins, and stronger partnership growth. This AI-driven credit decisioning engine also enhances operational efficiency and helps in maintaining prudent underwriting standards while expanding network volume.
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Share Repurchases
- Pagaya Technologies repurchased approximately $14.3 million of its 8.875% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2030 in 2025.
- Since December 26, 2025, the company repurchased approximately $6.9 million in aggregate principal amount of its 8.875% Senior Notes due 2030 through open-market transactions.
- The company considers these debt repurchases, made at a discount, an attractive use of capital within its capital allocation strategy.
Share Issuance
- In 2023, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported an issuance of Preferred Shares amounting to USD 74.3 million.
- Pagaya's CEO, President, Chairman, Chief Development Officer, and other co-founders purchased approximately $2 million of the Company's Class A ordinary shares.
Inbound Investments
- Pagaya secured a forward flow agreement with Blue Owl Capital in February 2025 to purchase up to $2.4 billion in consumer loans over 24 months.
- The company has raised $27 billion through its ABS program across 66 transactions with over 130 institutional funding partners.
- In 2023 alone, Pagaya raised $6.6 billion across 15 asset-backed securitizations (ABS), engaging with over 100 institutional investment firms.
- In March 2026, Pagaya closed a $400 million RPM 2026-1 Auto ABS Transaction, and in February 2026, launched its 2026 capital markets activity with an $800 million Consumer Loan ABS.
Capital Expenditures
- Pagaya Technologies' annual capital expenditures for FY 2025 were $13.90 million.
- Capital expenditures in a recent quarter (likely Q4 2025) totaled $3.24 million.
- The company's Capital Expenditures 1Y Growth was -21.6% in 2025, indicating a year-over-year decrease.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,942 |
| Op Inc LTM | 525 |
| FCF LTM | 252 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 118 |
| CFO LTM | 265 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 136 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 32.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 204.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 342.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/23/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -56.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.15 | $17.94 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.3% | 7.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 71.9% | 76.7% |
| Downside Capture | 319.41 | 403.71 |
| Upside Capture | 409.21 | 270.65 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.3% | 55.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.04 | 3.27 | 2.95 | 2.88 | 3.31 | 2.71 |
| Up Beta | 5.13 | 2.87 | 2.99 | 2.98 | 4.08 | 2.57 |
| Down Beta | 0.39 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.11 | 2.47 | 2.12 |
| Up Capture | 604% | 735% | 605% | 527% | 674% | 10269% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 65 | 123 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 398% | 279% | 265% | 234% | 187% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 32 | 60 | 128 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | -35.8% | 77.0% | -0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 33.2% | 25.6% | 1.08 | 47.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 8.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 13.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 39.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | -23.6% | 142.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.7% | 25.7% | 0.65 | 23.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 26.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 22.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 15.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PGY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGY | -12.6% | 142.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.9% | 0.87 | 23.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 26.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 22.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 9.0% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | 4.5% | -11.3% | -1.8% |
| 2/9/2026 | -23.9% | -33.3% | -39.2% |
| 11/10/2025 | 12.8% | -2.2% | 1.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -2.4% | 8.2% | 18.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.1% | 30.2% | 45.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | 24.3% | 36.3% | -10.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -35.6% | -49.2% | -42.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 12.8% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -19.3% | -20.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.3% | 36.3% | 45.8% |
| Max Negative | -35.6% | -49.2% | -42.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 9.0% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | 4.5% | -11.3% | -1.8% |
| 2/9/2026 | -23.9% | -33.3% | -39.2% |
| 11/10/2025 | 12.8% | -2.2% | 1.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -2.4% | 8.2% | 18.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.1% | 30.2% | 45.8% |
| 2/13/2025 | 24.3% | 36.3% | -10.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -35.6% | -49.2% | -42.0% |
| 8/9/2024 | -5.8% | -19.3% | -20.4% |
| 5/9/2024 | 20.0% | 16.0% | 17.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 12.8% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -19.3% | -20.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.3% | 36.3% | 45.8% |
| Max Negative | -35.6% | -49.2% | -42.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/17/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/16/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/20/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/17/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/16/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 04/20/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 05/27/2022 | DEFM14A |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2022 | 6-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Network Volume | 3.42 Bil | 3.52 Bil | 3.62 Bil | 18.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.98 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 370.00 Mil | 380.00 Mil | 390.00 Mil | 7.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 355.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 120.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 130.00 Mil | 16.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 107.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 GAAP Net Income | 42.00 Mil | 47.00 Mil | 52.00 Mil | 34.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Network Volume | 12.50 Bil | 12.88 Bil | 13.25 Bil | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: 12.22 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 1.43 Bil | 1.48 Bil | 1.52 Bil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.49 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 460.00 Mil | 475.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 440.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Net Income | 155.00 Mil | 167.50 Mil | 180.00 Mil | 24.1% | Raised | Guidance: 135.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Network Volume | 2.88 Bil | 2.98 Bil | 3.08 Bil | 14.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.60 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 345.00 Mil | 355.00 Mil | 365.00 Mil | 9.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 100.00 Mil | 107.50 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 22.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 87.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 GAAP Net Income | 25.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 40.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 25.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Network Volume | 11.45 Bil | 12.22 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 12.12 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 1.40 Bil | 1.49 Bil | 1.57 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.49 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 420.00 Mil | 440.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 435.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP Net Income | 110.00 Mil | 135.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 8.0% | Raised | Guidance: 125.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Network Volume | 2.50 Bil | 2.60 Bil | 2.70 Bil | -6.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.77 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 315.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 335.00 Mil | -5.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 345.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 80.00 Mil | 87.50 Mil | 95.00 Mil | -15.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 104.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income | 15.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | -16.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Network Volume | 11.25 Bil | 12.12 Bil | 13.00 Bil | 14.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.62 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income | 1.40 Bil | 1.49 Bil | 1.57 Bil | 13.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.31 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 410.00 Mil | 435.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 15.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 377.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP Net Income | 100.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 62.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 77.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Network Volume | 2.65 Bil | 2.77 Bil | 2.90 Bil | -2.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.85 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Total Revenue and Other Income | 333.00 Mil | 345.50 Mil | 358.00 Mil | 1.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 340.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 99.00 Mil | 104.00 Mil | 109.00 Mil | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 95.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 GAAP Net Income | 25.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 100.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 15.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Network Volume | 10.50 Bil | 10.62 Bil | 10.75 Bil | -3.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 11.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Total Revenue and Other Income | 1.30 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 1.32 Bil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.29 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 372.00 Mil | 377.00 Mil | 382.00 Mil | 5.5% | Raised | Guidance: 357.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP Net Income | 72.00 Mil | 77.00 Mil | 82.00 Mil | 18.5% | Raised | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vieira, Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 15.83 | 1,458 | 23,080 | 331,781 | Form |
| 2 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 15.83 | 14,000 | 221,620 | 2,619,462 | Form |
| 3 | Krubiner, Gal | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 15.43 | 16,230 | 250,468 | 8,578,964 | Form |
| 4 | Rosen, Tami | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 15.20 | 9,944 | 151,132 | 570,605 | Form | |
| 5 | Perros, Evangelos | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 16.23 | 11,558 | 187,586 | 2,130,041 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vieira, Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 15.83 | 1,458 | 23,080 | 331,781 | Form |
| 2 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 15.83 | 14,000 | 221,620 | 2,619,462 | Form |
| 3 | Krubiner, Gal | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6252026 | 15.43 | 16,230 | 250,468 | 8,578,964 | Form |
| 4 | Rosen, Tami | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 15.20 | 9,944 | 151,132 | 570,605 | Form | |
| 5 | Perros, Evangelos | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 16.23 | 11,558 | 187,586 | 2,130,041 | Form | |
| 6 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 16.23 | 13,309 | 216,005 | 2,507,122 | Form |
| 7 | Rosen, Tami | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 16.23 | 5,681 | 92,203 | 770,730 | Form | |
| 8 | Vieira, Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 15.01 | 2,140 | 32,121 | 272,867 | Form |
| 9 | Krubiner, Gal | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 15.09 | 16,600 | 250,550 | 8,145,546 | Form |
| 10 | Rosen, Tami | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 15.14 | 9,720 | 147,161 | 568,416 | Form | |
| 11 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 11.34 | 13,004 | 147,465 | 1,385,453 | Form |
| 12 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 10.99 | 9,702 | 106,625 | 1,582,929 | Form |
| 13 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 10.99 | 8,425 | 92,591 | 1,235,408 | Form |
| 14 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 10.99 | 5,905 | 64,896 | 519,431 | Form |
| 15 | Vieira, Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 10.92 | 2,490 | 27,191 | 165,012 | Form |
| 16 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 22.99 | 9,750 | 224,152 | 2,303,874 | Form |
| 17 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 22.99 | 3,945 | 90,696 | 2,988,368 | Form |
| 18 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 30.73 | 7,561 | 232,384 | 1,153,896 | Form |
| 19 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 22.35 | 568 | 12,695 | 2,993,157 | Form |
| 20 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 22.35 | 11,592 | 259,081 | 1,948,831 | Form |
| 21 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 22.35 | 8,064 | 180,230 | 1,008,097 | Form |
| 22 | Vieira, Cory | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 23.15 | 8,442 | 195,432 | 286,875 | Form |
| 23 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 27.40 | 12,816 | 351,158 | 3,034,276 | Form |
| 24 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 30.20 | 4,783 | 144,447 | 3,039,328 | Form |
| 25 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 30.73 | 15,026 | 461,817 | 866,129 | Form |
| 26 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 30.20 | 12,754 | 385,171 | 2,360,523 | Form |
| 27 | Petrozzo, Dan | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 41.43 | 2,828 | 117,168 | 3,871,774 | Form | |
| 28 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 40.62 | 13,304 | 540,408 | 3,935,469 | Form |
| 29 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 40.62 | 11,553 | 469,283 | 2,768,294 | Form |
| 30 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 41.20 | 13,870 | 571,449 | 1,780,144 | Form |
| 31 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 37.34 | 14,356 | 536,003 | 2,205,803 | Form |
| 32 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 38.84 | 9,435 | 366,433 | 2,852,039 | Form |
| 33 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 37.00 | 12,123 | 448,551 | 3,198,243 | Form |
| 34 | Petrozzo, Dan | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 30.15 | 8,484 | 255,793 | 2,902,782 | Form | |
| 35 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 25.95 | 12,742 | 330,655 | 2,557,684 | Form |
| 36 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 21.85 | 13,821 | 302,029 | 778,378 | Form |
| 37 | Das, Sanjiv | President | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 22.57 | 4,784 | 107,975 | 1,994,917 | Form |
| 38 | Perros, Evangelos | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 22.57 | 12,755 | 287,880 | 1,870,376 | Form |
| 39 | Rosen, Tami | Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 22.57 | 14,645 | 330,538 | 1,115,861 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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