Ally Financial (ALLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.76 | Market Cap: $13.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Ally Financial (ALLY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $41.76Market Cap: $13.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -74% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% | |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 8.4% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -74% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 15% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 8.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALLY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Ally Financial (ALLY) stock moved by approximately 2.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Ally Financial significantly surpassed Wall Street's expectations for its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported on October 17, 2025. The company posted a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.15, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.03 to $1.01, and reported revenues of $2.168 billion, which also topped the consensus estimate.
2. Positive Immediate Market Reaction: Following the robust Q3 earnings announcement, Ally's stock experienced a substantial positive surge, rising by approximately 4.6% to 5.9% in pre-market trading. This strong reaction reversed a negative trend the stock had experienced in the month prior to the earnings release.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALLY Return | 21% | 36% | -47% | 49% | 6% | 18% | 63% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 40% | -17% | 18% | 30% | 19% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALLY Win Rate | 83% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 50% | 33% | 46% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALLY Max Drawdown | -61% | -1% | -49% | -8% | -8% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -1% | -23% | -10% | -4% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, COF, GFCX, SUIG. See ALLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 264 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 120 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, COF, GFCX, SUIG
In The Past
Ally Financial's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ally Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 214.8 |
| Rev LTM | 48,231 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
| CFO LTM | 4,040 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,172 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 46.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 43.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 214.8 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 16.1 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 94.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 19.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Finance operations | 5,838 | 5,530 | 5,460 | 4,488 | 4,390 |
| Insurance operations | 1,532 | 1,112 | 1,404 | 1,376 | 1,328 |
| Corporate Finance operations | 534 | 456 | 436 | 344 | 284 |
| Corporate and Other | 330 | 1,082 | 688 | 258 | 199 |
| Mortgage Finance operations | 248 | 218 | 220 | 193 | |
| Total | 8,234 | 8,428 | 8,206 | 6,686 | 6,394 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive Finance operations | 115,301 | 111,463 | 103,653 | 104,794 | 113,863 |
| Corporate and Other | 60,735 | 41,631 | 43,283 | 47,237 | 36,168 |
| Corporate Finance operations | 11,212 | 10,544 | 7,950 | 6,108 | 5,787 |
| Insurance operations | 9,081 | 8,659 | 9,381 | 9,137 | 8,547 |
| Mortgage Finance operations | 19,529 | 17,847 | 14,889 | 16,279 | |
| Total | 196,329 | 191,826 | 182,114 | 182,165 | 180,644 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |