SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.22 | Market Cap: $34.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.22Market Cap: $34.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.3x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 5.6% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 104% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 5.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.3x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 104% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOFI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why SoFi Technologies (SOFI) stock moved by 13.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. SoFi exceeded analyst expectations with its Q3 2025 earnings report.
The company reported $0.11 earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter of 2025, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.09. Additionally, SoFi's revenue reached $949.63 million, beating the analyst forecast of $880.33 million and representing a 37.7% increase year-over-year.
2. The company provided strong full-year 2025 EPS guidance.
Following its robust quarterly performance, SoFi Technologies set its full-year 2025 EPS guidance at $0.37, signaling continued profitability and a positive outlook to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOFI Return | - | 27% | -71% | 116% | 55% | 92% | 137% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 17% | -10% | 41% | 14% | -2% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOFI Win Rate | 100% | 33% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 50% | 38% | 46% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOFI Max Drawdown | - | -3% | -73% | -2% | -36% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -6% | -18% | -5% | -6% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OBDC, BUR, GFCX, SUIG, AXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SOFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 992 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -2.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 148 days |
Compare to OBDC, BUR, GFCX, SUIG, AXP
In The Past
SoFi Technologies's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/1/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 499.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can SoFi Technologies Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for SoFi Technologies Stock with 21% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [7/14/2025] | |||
| SOFI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| SOFI Stock Analysis: Strong Fundamentals At A Premium Valuation | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 23rd, 2025 | ||
| Why Buy SoFi Technologies Stock Now? | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| SoFi’s Breakout Continues: Crypto And Rate Cuts Fuel Further Upside | August 13th, 2025 | ||
| Should You Buy SoFi Technologies Stock? | July 29th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SoFi Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| Rev LTM | 742 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -0 |
| CFO LTM | 32 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -0 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 26.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |