Upstart (UPST)


Market Price (9/24/2026): $24.65 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance

Upstart (UPST)


Market Price (9/24/2026): $24.65
Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Consumer Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 66%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 39x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%

Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27%

Key risks
UPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 66%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 39x
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27%
8 Key risks
UPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model.

UPST in ETFs

Weight = UPST's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.07%
VB0.03%
IWO0.14%
VTWO0.08%
VBK0.07%
SCHA0.05%
+7 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/10/2026

Upstart (UPST) stock has lost about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance. Upstart reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 4, 2026, showing a mixed outcome that likely contributed to the stock's decline. While the company returned to GAAP profitability for the first time since late 2021, reporting $16.5 million in net income, and revenue increased 41.9% year-over-year to $364.71 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $354.74 million, its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18.

2. Elevated Macroeconomic Pressures and Credit Quality Concerns. Ongoing macroeconomic pressures and concerns about credit quality have continued to impact investor sentiment. Upstart's proprietary Macro Index (UMI) stood at 1.50 as of August 3, 2026, reflecting a 9% increase from April 3, 2026. This indicates that macroeconomic conditions are estimated to be pushing credit defaults approximately 50% above the company's long-run baseline, suggesting persistent challenges in the lending environment.

Show more
Updated on 9/10/2026

Upstart (UPST) stock has lost about 30% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance. Upstart reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 4, 2026, showing a mixed outcome that likely contributed to the stock's decline. While the company returned to GAAP profitability for the first time since late 2021, reporting $16.5 million in net income, and revenue increased 41.9% year-over-year to $364.71 million, exceeding consensus estimates of $354.74 million, its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18.

2. Elevated Macroeconomic Pressures and Credit Quality Concerns. Ongoing macroeconomic pressures and concerns about credit quality have continued to impact investor sentiment. Upstart's proprietary Macro Index (UMI) stood at 1.50 as of August 3, 2026, reflecting a 9% increase from April 3, 2026. This indicates that macroeconomic conditions are estimated to be pushing credit defaults approximately 50% above the company's long-run baseline, suggesting persistent challenges in the lending environment.

3. Cautious Analyst Sentiment and Hold Ratings. Analyst coverage during the period reflected a cautious outlook for Upstart. The overall consensus rating for the stock is "Hold," with an average price target of $43.75. For example, Loop Capital initiated coverage with a "Hold" rating and a $34.00 price target, citing concerns about capital. This mixed to cautious analyst sentiment, despite some positive operational developments, likely weighed on the stock price.

4. Sustained Higher Interest Rate Environment and Lending Market Headwinds. The broader economic environment, characterized by expectations of sustained higher interest rates, continues to pose challenges for lending platforms. Market pricing assigns a high probability of a rate hike by December 2026. Additionally, credit conditions are anticipated to soften slightly, and approval rates for borrowers with subprime scores may remain constrained, impacting Upstart's ability to expand its lending volume in certain segments.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -27.6% change in UPST stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269232026Change
Stock Price ($)33.7924.45-27.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,1191,2269.6%
Net Income Margin (%)4.4%4.9%11.4%
P/E Multiple66.339.1-41.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)97970.3%
Cumulative Contribution-27.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/23/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-27.6% 
Market (SPY)1.8%70.3%
Sector (XLF)6.1%32.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.2% change in UPST stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269232026Change
Stock Price ($)27.2324.45-10.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0241,22619.8%
Net Income Margin (%)5.2%4.9%-6.0%
P/E Multiple49.639.1-21.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)98971.1%
Cumulative Contribution-10.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/23/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-10.2% 
Market (SPY)12.5%61.1%
Sector (XLF)7.0%34.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -66.6% change in UPST stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120259232026Change
Stock Price ($)73.2824.45-66.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8441,22645.3%
P/S Multiple8.31.9-76.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9697-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution-66.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/23/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-66.6% 
Market (SPY)20.3%56.5%
Sector (XLF)2.6%45.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -24.0% change in UPST stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239232026Change
Stock Price ($)32.1724.45-24.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5381,226127.9%
P/S Multiple5.01.9-61.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8397-13.9%
Cumulative Contribution-24.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/23/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-24.0% 
Market (SPY)77.0%48.1%
Sector (XLF)66.3%42.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UPST Return271%-91%209%51%-29%-41%-36%
Peers Return31%-50%129%37%37%-17%133%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPST Win Rate58%25%50%50%42%44% 
Peers Win Rate57%35%55%57%65%33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%56% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPST Max Drawdown-66%-92%-71%-47%-61%-52% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-59%-37%-28%-37%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SOFI, AFRM, ALLY, AXP, COF. See UPST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/24/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUPSTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-58.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven110 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-66.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven201.8%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven364 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-24.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days31 days

Compare to SOFI, AFRM, ALLY, AXP, COF

In The Past

Upstart's stock fell -58.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventUPSTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-58.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven110 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-66.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven201.8%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven364 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-24.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days31 days

Compare to SOFI, AFRM, ALLY, AXP, COF

In The Past

Upstart's stock fell -58.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Upstart (UPST)

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Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a sophisticated cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company's core business revolves around modernizing the consumer loan application and approval process. By leveraging proprietary AI models, Upstart aims to provide more accurate assessments of borrower creditworthiness compared to traditional methods, ultimately seeking to expand access to affordable credit for consumers while managing and potentially reducing risk for its lending partners.

The main product is its AI lending platform, which functions as a digital marketplace for loans. This platform efficiently aggregates consumer demand for various types of loans and connects these prospective borrowers with a network of the company's AI-enabled bank partners. Through this technology, Upstart facilitates the end-to-end lending lifecycle, from initial application to loan funding, providing a streamlined and data-driven approach to credit origination.

Upstart primarily serves a multi-sided customer base within the United States. Its key customers include individual consumers seeking personal loans, a growing network of bank partners that utilize the AI platform to originate and service loans more efficiently, and institutional investors who provide capital for many of the loans facilitated through the platform. This interconnected ecosystem benefits consumers with fairer loan terms, banks with enhanced lending capabilities, and investors with new opportunities.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Upstart:

  • Upstart is like an Expedia for personal loans, powered by AI.
  • Upstart is like a LendingClub for banks, driven by AI.
  • Upstart is like Salesforce for AI-driven loan origination for banks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • AI Lending Platform: A cloud-based platform that utilizes artificial intelligence to connect consumers seeking loans with bank partners and institutional investors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstart (UPST) primarily sells its cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform and related services to other companies, specifically financial institutions. Upstart operates with a diversified network of partners and typically does not disclose the names of individual "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its revenue.

The primary categories of companies that are Upstart's customers include:

  • Banks and Credit Unions: These financial institutions leverage Upstart's AI platform to originate and underwrite loans for consumers. Upstart has a network of over 100 bank and credit union partners. While specific major bank partners are not typically disclosed by name due to the nature of Upstart's diversified partner base, a notable and long-standing partner that has been publicly mentioned in various contexts as a significant originator of Upstart-powered loans is Cross River Bank. Cross River Bank is a privately held institution and therefore does not have a public stock symbol.
  • Institutional Investors: These entities provide funding and liquidity to the Upstart ecosystem by purchasing loans originated through the platform, either from Upstart directly or from its bank partners. This category encompasses a variety of investment funds, asset managers, and other capital providers. No specific names of individual institutional investors are publicly disclosed as major customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Amazon (symbol: AMZN)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Dave Girouard, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Dave Girouard co-founded Upstart in 2012. Before founding Upstart, he served as President of Google Enterprise for eight years (2004-2012), where he was instrumental in building Google's multi-billion dollar cloud applications business worldwide, encompassing product development, sales, marketing, and customer support. His career also includes roles as a Product Manager at Apple, SVP of Product Management & Marketing at Virage, a Senior Associate at Booz Allen & Hamilton, and a software developer at Accenture. Girouard will transition to the role of Executive Chairman on May 1, 2026.

Andrea Blankmeyer, Chief Financial Officer

Andrea Blankmeyer joined Upstart as Chief Financial Officer, effective March 16, 2026. Prior to Upstart, she was the CFO of Cityblock Health from 2020 to March 2026. She also held the CFO position at Transfix, an AI-enabled freight solutions provider, and served as Vice President of Finance at SoFi, where her responsibilities included leading FP&A, investor relations, treasury, financial operations, and warehouse operations.

Paul Gu, Co-Founder & Chief Technology Officer (Incoming Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026)

Paul Gu co-founded Upstart in 2012 and currently serves as the Chief Technology Officer, overseeing product, engineering, and machine learning functions, as well as general management of the emerging auto and home businesses. He will become Chief Executive Officer of Upstart on May 1, 2026. Gu was a Thiel Fellow in the 20 Under 20 Program and previously worked as a Summer Analyst at D.E. Shaw & Co. He studied Economics and Computer Science at Yale University.

Anna Counselman, Co-Founder & Head of People & Operations

Anna Counselman is a co-founder of Upstart, which she helped establish in 2012, and leads the company's People & Operations teams, focusing on customer experience and culture-strategy alignment. Before Upstart, she spent five years at Google, where she managed Gmail Consumer Operations during its growth from 150 million to over 450 million users and launched the global Enterprise Customer Programs team. Her background also includes various operations roles at McMaster Carr and other startups. Counselman received a White House Champion of Change award.

Sanjay Datta, President and Chief Capital Officer

Sanjay Datta was named Upstart's President and Chief Capital Officer, effective February 10, 2026. He joined Upstart over nine years ago as Chief Financial Officer, a role in which he was instrumental in the company's transition from a pre-profit startup to a rapidly growing, profitable publicly traded financial technology company, including managing its December 2020 IPO. His prior experience includes senior roles at Google and Deloitte.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) primarily stem from its reliance on funding partners, the sensitivity of its AI lending model and credit performance to macroeconomic conditions, and an evolving regulatory landscape for AI in finance.

1. Concentration Risk and Reliance on Funding Partners

Upstart faces significant concentration risk due to its heavy reliance on a limited number of bank partners and institutional investors for loan originations and funding. For instance, in 2021, two banks alone contributed 83% of Upstart's revenue, having originated 55% and 36% of the loans on its platform, respectively. A reduction in loan quotas or termination of relationships by these key partners could lead to substantial business disruption, negatively impacting Upstart's financial performance and customer satisfaction. While Upstart operates a capital-light model by referring loans to banks, its growth prospects are directly tied to its ability to attract and retain these funding sources.

2. Credit Performance and Macroeconomic Headwinds

The effectiveness of Upstart's AI-powered lending platform is highly susceptible to credit cycle deterioration and broader macroeconomic conditions, such as rising interest rates and economic slowdowns. Higher interest rates typically reduce loan demand, directly impacting Upstart's revenue. Furthermore, in a weakening economy, increased loan defaults could reduce the appeal of Upstart's platform to lenders and challenge the accuracy of its AI models to predict appropriate credit losses. Although Upstart's model aims to assess credit risk more effectively than traditional methods, its performance under severe, prolonged stressful economic conditions has yet to be fully battle-tested.

3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks, Including AI Bias and Data Privacy

Operating an AI-driven lending platform in the financial industry exposes Upstart to a complex and evolving regulatory environment. This includes potential scrutiny from regulators regarding fairness and transparency in AI lending models, the risk of hidden biases against certain borrowers, and concerns related to data privacy and security when handling sensitive consumer information. Upstart's recent application for a national bank charter, while potentially offering benefits like reduced regulatory friction, also introduces new compliance requirements and operating costs that need to be managed. Non-compliance with these evolving regulations could lead to investigations, enforcement actions, fines, and reputational damage.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The following are clear emerging threats for Upstart (UPST):

  • Erosion of confidence in its AI model's resilience: Upstart's business relies on its proprietary AI model outperforming traditional credit scoring methods, particularly for non-prime borrowers. Emerging evidence from recent periods of economic volatility and rising interest rates has shown challenges for the model to consistently predict credit risk and maintain loan performance, leading to higher-than-expected defaults. This has resulted in significantly reduced demand and increased caution from institutional investors and the securitization market for Upstart-powered loans, threatening the platform's ability to attract and retain the capital necessary for loan growth.
  • Increasing regulatory scrutiny on AI in lending: Governments and financial regulatory bodies are placing increasing focus on the ethical implications, fairness, transparency, and potential for bias in AI models used for credit decisions. The emerging regulatory landscape, potentially including new mandates for algorithmic explainability, bias auditing, or limitations on certain AI methodologies, could necessitate costly modifications to Upstart's core AI platform or restrict its operational scope.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstart (UPST) operates in several large addressable markets within the United States for its lending products and services:

  • The total addressable market (TAM) for personal loans, small business loans, auto loans, and home loans is estimated to be more than $3 trillion in annual origination volume in the U.S.
  • The personal loan market in the U.S. is estimated to be approximately $96 billion.
  • The auto loan origination opportunity in the U.S. is valued at $727 billion annually.
  • The small business lending market in the U.S. is an estimated $895 billion annually.
  • The mortgage market in the U.S. is approximately $4.6 trillion.
  • The home equity line of credit (HELOC) market in the U.S. has more than $30 trillion in untapped home equity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Upstart (UPST)

Over the next 2-3 years, Upstart (UPST) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives:

  1. Expansion into New Lending Products: Upstart is actively diversifying its product offerings beyond unsecured personal loans. Significant growth is expected from its expansion into auto retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and newly launched small-dollar loan products, such as the "Cash Line." This strategy taps into larger markets and broadens the company's addressable opportunity.

  2. Growth in Lending Partner Network and Institutional Capital: A crucial driver will be the continued expansion of Upstart's network of AI-enabled bank and credit union partners, along with securing additional institutional funding. An increasing number of lending partners and greater access to capital on its platform directly facilitate higher loan origination volumes.

  3. Advancements in AI Underwriting Models and Automation: Ongoing improvements to Upstart's proprietary artificial intelligence underwriting models are expected to enhance credit assessment accuracy, leading to higher loan conversion rates and greater automation in the lending process. This increased efficiency allows for a higher volume of loans to be processed with improved unit economics and reduced operating costs.

  4. Cross-Selling to Existing Customers: Upstart is focusing on leveraging its current base of millions of borrowers by offering them additional loan products, particularly in areas like auto refinancing. This approach is designed to reduce customer acquisition costs and increase the lifetime value of its customers, thereby contributing to sustained revenue growth.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Upstart's Board of Directors authorized a $400 million share repurchase program.
  • Between February 12 and February 18, 2026, Upstart repurchased $100 million of common stock, acquiring 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share.
  • As of February 19, 2026, $122 million remained available for future repurchases under the $400 million share repurchase program.

Share Issuance

  • In Q2 2025, Upstart received $4.565 million from the issuance of common stock under its employee stock purchase plan and $2.219 million from the exercise of stock options.
  • On February 28, 2026, 912,702 performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) were granted to the Chief Technology Officer as an equity incentive.
  • Upstart issued 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032.

Inbound Investments

  • Upstart secured a 12-month, $1.5 billion forward flow agreement with Castlelake in November 2025.
  • The company finalized a $480 million Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) transaction, UPST 2025-4, in November 2025.
  • In Q4 2024, Upstart noted an upsized $1.3 billion commitment from capital partners and a $150 million personal loan warehouse facility.

Capital Expenditures

  • Upstart emphasizes continued investment in technology to improve the user experience and enhance its AI-driven lending platform.
  • The company's capital allocation includes scaling AI model innovation and advancing competitive rates and processes across its product offerings.

Peer Outperformance in Consumer Finance

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Share of Consumer Finance constituents that UPST has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
—
insufficient peer history
3Y
—
insufficient peer history
5Y
—
insufficient peer history
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Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSTSOFIAFRMALLYAXPCOFMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.Affirm Ally Fin.American.Capital . 
Mkt Price24.4516.5568.0938.58301.96196.1053.34
Mkt Cap2.421.323.111.9204.7121.722.2
Rev LTM1,2264,3064,2619,62975,95261,9386,967
Op Inc LTM--871---871
FCF LTM-305-8,80099376215,05229,701877
FCF 3Y Avg-177-4,88362869916,48523,450664
CFO LTM-284-8,5021,2314,56618,47531,4522,898
CFO 3Y Avg-162-4,6678254,17318,88924,8582,499

Growth & Margins

UPSTSOFIAFRMALLYAXPCOFMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.Affirm Ally Fin.American.Capital . 
Rev Chg LTM45.3%41.0%32.2%12.3%10.7%45.1%36.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg34.5%32.7%39.1%1.6%10.0%21.2%26.9%
Rev Chg Q41.7%42.5%33.0%11.4%10.0%26.9%30.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%9.2%7.3%2.8%2.4%5.7%6.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM--157.7%---157.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--152.8%---152.8%
Op Mgn LTM--20.4%---20.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--6.5%---6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.1%---1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.2%-197.5%28.9%47.4%24.3%50.8%26.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-18.9%-135.1%24.3%46.3%27.7%53.0%26.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.9%-204.4%23.3%7.9%19.8%48.0%13.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-20.7%-141.7%18.2%7.7%24.3%50.0%12.9%

Valuation

UPSTSOFIAFRMALLYAXPCOFMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.Affirm Ally Fin.American.Capital . 
Mkt Cap2.421.323.111.9204.7121.722.2
P/S1.94.95.41.22.72.02.3
P/Op Inc--26.5---26.5
P/EBIT--24.4---24.4
P/E39.133.412.08.217.911.614.9
P/CFO-8.3-2.518.82.611.13.93.2
Total Yield2.6%3.0%8.4%15.4%6.8%10.2%7.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%3.2%1.2%1.6%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%-31.2%3.1%5.4%8.5%27.7%4.3%
D/E0.90.20.41.90.30.40.4
Net D/E0.7-0.20.3-0.40.1-0.1-0.0

Returns

UPSTSOFIAFRMALLYAXPCOFMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.Affirm Ally Fin.American.Capital . 
1M Rtn-18.2%-9.3%-11.4%-9.1%-10.5%-9.3%-9.9%
3M Rtn-25.1%-4.4%-12.3%-14.7%-11.6%-1.8%-12.0%
6M Rtn-6.3%-0.1%51.1%-0.3%1.2%6.7%0.6%
12M Rtn-60.8%-43.1%-17.7%-7.0%-10.6%-10.7%-14.2%
3Y Rtn-7.9%119.5%237.4%58.2%104.2%109.0%106.6%
1M Excs Rtn-18.9%-10.0%-12.1%-9.8%-11.2%-10.0%-10.6%
3M Excs Rtn-29.8%-9.1%-17.0%-19.5%-16.3%-6.6%-16.7%
6M Excs Rtn-25.6%-18.4%34.5%-18.6%-17.0%-10.5%-17.7%
12M Excs Rtn-77.4%-59.6%-39.6%-23.8%-25.6%-26.8%-33.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-88.5%17.9%99.2%-24.3%22.8%27.2%20.3%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Platform and referral fees, net793502414732726
Servicing and other fees, net15713314617575
Total950635560907801


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$24.45 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.4 
First Trading Date12/16/2020 
Distance from 52W High-60.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$28.33$33.29
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-13.7%-26.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility48.6%65.6%
Downside Capture503.89425.46
Upside Capture253.22245.04
Correlation (SPY)68.4%58.1%
UPST Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta4.253.332.942.652.922.70
Up Beta2.321.982.471.922.692.55
Down Beta3.171.972.051.692.442.67
Up Capture528%330%369%486%424%5732%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days7142760123367
Down Capture614%469%304%240%192%113%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days14283767128381

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-62.5%65.6%-1.22-
Sector ETF (XLF)2.2%14.7%-0.0746.9%
Equity (SPY)16.2%13.0%0.8858.6%
Gold (GLD)13.9%29.3%0.4413.6%
Commodities (DBC)46.6%20.7%1.75-18.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.5%13.7%0.0825.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.2%44.8%-0.4641.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-39.1%102.4%-0.00-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.5%18.4%0.3840.9%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.2%0.5748.8%
Gold (GLD)18.6%18.8%0.807.6%
Commodities (DBC)10.5%19.5%0.414.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.8%18.9%-0.0640.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.5%52.6%0.4128.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-2.2%111.7%0.47-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.0%22.1%0.5334.1%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7341.5%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.4%0.608.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%18.1%0.382.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2033.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)64.2%66.2%1.0420.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 81520264.7%
Average Daily Volume4.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity96.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares26.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/2026-0.4%-1.4%-7.1%
5/5/2026-7.9%-10.7%3.5%
2/10/2026-15.0%-19.1%-33.9%
11/4/2025-9.7%-15.8%1.1%
8/5/2025-18.7%-23.3%-20.3%
5/6/2025-9.6%4.4%-0.0%
2/11/202531.8%23.4%-31.2%
11/7/202446.0%21.5%37.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive698
# Negative1189
Median Positive37.1%21.5%26.4%
Median Negative-11.8%-17.4%-20.3%
Max Positive89.3%84.7%132.5%
Max Negative-27.3%-25.5%-42.7%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/4/2026-0.4%-1.4%-7.1%
5/5/2026-7.9%-10.7%3.5%
2/10/2026-15.0%-19.1%-33.9%
11/4/2025-9.7%-15.8%1.1%
8/5/2025-18.7%-23.3%-20.3%
5/6/2025-9.6%4.4%-0.0%
2/11/202531.8%23.4%-31.2%
11/7/202446.0%21.5%37.7%
8/6/202439.5%58.5%49.6%
5/7/2024-5.6%16.8%9.8%
2/13/2024-19.6%-25.5%-29.4%
11/7/2023-27.3%-13.5%15.2%
5/9/202334.6%37.5%132.5%
2/14/202328.1%10.2%-6.2%
8/8/2022-11.8%2.5%-17.4%
11/9/2021-18.2%-24.8%-42.7%
3/17/202189.3%84.7%72.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive698
# Negative1189
Median Positive37.1%21.5%26.4%
Median Negative-11.8%-17.4%-20.3%
Max Positive89.3%84.7%132.5%
Max Negative-27.3%-25.5%-42.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/14/202510-K
09/30/202411/08/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/14/202510-K
09/30/202411/08/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202102/18/202210-K
09/30/202111/12/202110-Q
06/30/202108/13/202110-Q
03/31/202105/14/202110-Q
12/31/202003/18/202110-K
09/30/202012/16/2020424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 9/15/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total RevenueReported 1.40 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.40 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue From FeesReported 1.30 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.30 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 294.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 294.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total RevenueReported 1.40 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.40 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue From FeesReported 1.30 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.30 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 294.00 Mil    
2026 Adjusted EBITDA MarginReported 21.0%  0AffirmedGuidance: 21.0% for 2026
2028 Total Revenue CAGRReported 0.35  0AffirmedGuidance: 0.35 for 2025-2028
2028 Adjusted EBITDA MarginReported 25.0%  0AffirmedGuidance: 25.0% for 2025-2028

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total RevenueReported 1.40 Bil 35.3% Higher NewActual: 1.03 Bil for 2025
2026 Revenue From FeesReported 1.30 Bil 37.4% Higher NewActual: 946.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA MarginReported 21.0%  -1.0%Lower NewActual: 22.0% for 2025
2025-2028 Total Revenue Compound Annual Growth RateReported 35.0%    
2025-2028 Terminal Adjusted EBITDA MarginReported 25.0%    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Contribution MarginReported 53.0%  -5.0%Lower NewActual: 58.0% for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Total RevenueReported 288.00 Mil 2.9% Higher NewActual: 280.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Revenue From FeesReported 262.00 Mil -4.7% Lower NewActual: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDAReported 63.00 Mil 12.5% Higher NewActual: 56.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Net Interest IncomeReported 26.00 Mil 420.0% Higher NewActual: 5.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 GAAP Net IncomeReported 17.00 Mil 88.9% Higher NewActual: 9.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted Net IncomeReported 52.00 Mil 18.2% Higher NewActual: 44.00 Mil for Q3 2025
2025 Total RevenueReported 1.03 Bil -1.9% LoweredGuidance: 1.05 Bil for 2025
2025 Revenue From FeesReported 946.00 Mil -4.4% LoweredGuidance: 990.00 Mil for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDA MarginReported 22.0%  2.0%RaisedGuidance: 20.0% for 2025
2025 Net Interest IncomeReported 89.00 Mil 36.9% RaisedGuidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025
2025 GAAP Net IncomeReported 50.00 Mil 42.9% RaisedGuidance: 35.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/10/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gu, PaulChief Executive Officerby LLCBuy910202625.5550,0001,277,5003,321,500Form
2Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell909202627.29116,0003,166,19713,008,101Form
3Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell827202630.0391327,4171,077,326Form
4Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell821202628.098,945251,2988,219,599Form
5Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell821202628.097,696216,2162,059,503Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gu, PaulChief Executive Officerby LLCBuy910202625.5550,0001,277,5003,321,500Form
2Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell909202627.29116,0003,166,19713,008,101Form
3Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell827202630.0391327,4171,077,326Form
4Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell821202628.098,945251,2988,219,599Form
5Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell821202628.097,696216,2162,059,503Form
6Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell821202628.0958616,4611,033,371Form
7Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell821202631.4610,000314,6339,486,909Form
8Blankmeyer, AndreaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell819202629.333,00087,9904,464,261Form
9Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell819202629.362,03359,6839,145,412Form
10Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell819202629.3681423,8982,559,676Form
11Blankmeyer, AndreaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell819202629.367,175210,6464,556,643Form
12Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell611202630.4115,000456,1169,534,517Form
13Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell527202628.9997428,2361,083,472Form
14Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell521202628.777,985229,7409,453,016Form
15Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell521202628.7752615,1341,103,345Form
16Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell521202628.786,634190,9122,553,397Form
17Blankmeyer, AndreaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell518202629.637,044208,7034,811,157Form
18Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell518202629.5472721,4763,031,112Form
19Datta, SanjayPresident, Capital& EnterpriseDirectSell518202629.561,81753,7079,947,511Form
20Gu, PaulChief Executive Officerby trustBuy513202627.5050,0001,375,0001,925,000Form
21Girouard, Dave See FootnoteBuy507202629.37170,2404,999,607250,007,983Form
22Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell303202626.0239010,148891,809Form
23Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell226202628.7986624,932728,070Form
24Datta, SanjayChief Financial OfficerDirectSell224202629.867,982238,3758,263,038Form
25Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell224202629.9063318,925781,959Form
26Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell224202629.856,478193,3942,571,026Form
27Darling, ScottChief Legal Officerby trustSell224202630.2539011,798957,019Form
28Darling, ScottChief Legal Officerby trustSell106202650.001,00050,000871,750Form
29Cooper, Kerry Whorton See FootnoteSell1215202550.001,50075,0001,196,700Form
30Darling, ScottChief Legal Officerby trustSell1215202550.007,392369,600871,750Form
31Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell1125202538.9176229,6491,027,146Form
32Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell1124202536.6282130,063994,541Form
33Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell1124202536.587,723282,4803,584,131Form
34Datta, SanjayChief Financial OfficerDirectSell1124202536.5813,624498,32310,398,076Form
35Gu, PaulChief Technology Offierby trustBuy1111202539.2220,000784,400784,400Form
36Gu, PaulChief Technology Offierby LLCBuy1111202539.2380,0003,138,4003,138,400Form
37Darling, ScottChief Legal Officerby trustSell1028202555.011,00055,0126,774,667Form
38Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell1003202554.641,00054,6406,769,787Form
39Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell919202570.011,00070,0108,674,037Form
40Girouard, DaveChief Executive OfficerDirectSell917202564.9341,6672,705,5453,416,362Form
41Darling, ScottChief Legal OfficerDirectSell905202569.414,000277,6548,600,181Form
42Gu, PaulChief Technology OffierDirectSell904202568.615,000343,05978,708,508Form
43Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell904202569.211,43999,5931,459,016Form
44Cooper, Kerry Whorton See FootnoteSell904202569.2150034,6051,760,287Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 24, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Halter Ferguson Financial Inc.$37.6 Mil8.3%36ADD +253.3%13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$15.1 Mil2.1%39ADD +13.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Halter Ferguson Financial Inc.$37.6 Mil8.3%36ADD +253.3%13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$15.1 Mil2.1%39ADD +13.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P.$219.2 Mil2.5%25Exited13F
Azora Capital LP$38.6 Mil2.4%47Exited13F
Nishkama Capital, LLC$21.3 Mil2.9%49Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Halter Ferguson Financial Inc.$37.6 Mil8.3%36ADD +253.3%13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$15.1 Mil2.1%39ADD +13.2%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/23/2026