Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%

Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28%

Key risks
UPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x
6 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28%
10 Key risks
UPST key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on a concentrated number of lending partners for funding and revenue and [2] regulatory scrutiny targeting the fairness and transparency of its core AI-driven lending model.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstart (UPST) stock has lost about 25% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Upstart's Q1 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for diluted net earnings per share (EPS) and showed declining profitability. The company reported a diluted net loss of ($0.07) per share for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.39 per share by $0.46. While total revenue of $308.21 million exceeded analysts' expectations, the adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 13% in Q1 2026 from 22% in Q4 2025.

2. A shift in financial guidance strategy and a CEO transition created investor uncertainty. Following its Q4 2025 earnings report on February 10, 2026, Upstart announced it would discontinue quarterly financial guidance, instead providing annual targets supplemented by monthly transaction volume updates, a move that Wall Street interpreted as a "blackout" on near-term data. Concurrently, co-founder Paul Gu was announced to succeed Dave Girouard as CEO effective May 1, 2026, further contributing to investor apprehension due to the leadership change.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -26.9% change in UPST stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265112026Change
Stock Price ($)39.2528.69-26.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9591,11916.7%
Net Income Margin (%)3.4%4.4%31.5%
P/E Multiple117.856.3-52.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9797-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-26.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-26.9% 
Market (SPY)3.6%62.9%
Sector (XLF)-3.7%60.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -39.6% change in UPST stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255112026Change
Stock Price ($)47.5228.69-39.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8441,11932.6%
P/S Multiple5.42.5-53.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9697-1.4%
Cumulative Contribution-39.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-39.6% 
Market (SPY)5.5%59.1%
Sector (XLF)-1.4%56.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -40.0% change in UPST stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -64.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020255112026Change
Stock Price ($)47.8028.69-40.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6291,11977.9%
P/S Multiple7.02.5-64.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9297-4.9%
Cumulative Contribution-40.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST-40.0% 
Market (SPY)30.4%52.0%
Sector (XLF)6.6%48.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 106.4% change in UPST stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020235112026Change
Stock Price ($)13.9028.69106.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8381,11933.5%
P/S Multiple1.42.584.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8197-16.0%
Cumulative Contribution106.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
UPST106.4% 
Market (SPY)78.7%45.1%
Sector (XLF)61.9%40.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
UPST Return271%-91%209%51%-29%-34%-29%
Peers Return49%-70%117%25%53%-19%49%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%97%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPST Win Rate58%25%50%50%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate48%27%50%48%60%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPST Max Drawdown0%-92%-8%-47%-43%-45% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-74%-19%-32%-30%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SOFI, LC, AFRM, PGY, ALLY. See UPST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventUPSTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-58.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven110 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-66.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven201.8%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven364 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-24.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days31 days

Compare to SOFI, LC, AFRM, PGY, ALLY

In The Past

Upstart's stock fell -58.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventUPSTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-58.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven110 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-66.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven201.8%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven364 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-24.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven8 days31 days

Compare to SOFI, LC, AFRM, PGY, ALLY

In The Past

Upstart's stock fell -58.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Upstart (UPST)

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud- based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company's platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network of the company's AI- enabled bank partners. Its platform connects consumers, banks, and institutional investors through a shared AI lending platform. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Upstart:

  • Upstart is like an Expedia for personal loans, powered by AI.
  • Upstart is like a LendingClub for banks, driven by AI.
  • Upstart is like Salesforce for AI-driven loan origination for banks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • AI Lending Platform: A cloud-based platform that utilizes artificial intelligence to connect consumers seeking loans with bank partners and institutional investors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstart (UPST) primarily sells its cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform and related services to other companies, specifically financial institutions. Upstart operates with a diversified network of partners and typically does not disclose the names of individual "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its revenue.

The primary categories of companies that are Upstart's customers include:

  • Banks and Credit Unions: These financial institutions leverage Upstart's AI platform to originate and underwrite loans for consumers. Upstart has a network of over 100 bank and credit union partners. While specific major bank partners are not typically disclosed by name due to the nature of Upstart's diversified partner base, a notable and long-standing partner that has been publicly mentioned in various contexts as a significant originator of Upstart-powered loans is Cross River Bank. Cross River Bank is a privately held institution and therefore does not have a public stock symbol.
  • Institutional Investors: These entities provide funding and liquidity to the Upstart ecosystem by purchasing loans originated through the platform, either from Upstart directly or from its bank partners. This category encompasses a variety of investment funds, asset managers, and other capital providers. No specific names of individual institutional investors are publicly disclosed as major customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Amazon (symbol: AMZN)

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Dave Girouard, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer

Dave Girouard co-founded Upstart in 2012. Before founding Upstart, he served as President of Google Enterprise for eight years (2004-2012), where he was instrumental in building Google's multi-billion dollar cloud applications business worldwide, encompassing product development, sales, marketing, and customer support. His career also includes roles as a Product Manager at Apple, SVP of Product Management & Marketing at Virage, a Senior Associate at Booz Allen & Hamilton, and a software developer at Accenture. Girouard will transition to the role of Executive Chairman on May 1, 2026.

Andrea Blankmeyer, Chief Financial Officer

Andrea Blankmeyer joined Upstart as Chief Financial Officer, effective March 16, 2026. Prior to Upstart, she was the CFO of Cityblock Health from 2020 to March 2026. She also held the CFO position at Transfix, an AI-enabled freight solutions provider, and served as Vice President of Finance at SoFi, where her responsibilities included leading FP&A, investor relations, treasury, financial operations, and warehouse operations.

Paul Gu, Co-Founder & Chief Technology Officer (Incoming Chief Executive Officer effective May 1, 2026)

Paul Gu co-founded Upstart in 2012 and currently serves as the Chief Technology Officer, overseeing product, engineering, and machine learning functions, as well as general management of the emerging auto and home businesses. He will become Chief Executive Officer of Upstart on May 1, 2026. Gu was a Thiel Fellow in the 20 Under 20 Program and previously worked as a Summer Analyst at D.E. Shaw & Co. He studied Economics and Computer Science at Yale University.

Anna Counselman, Co-Founder & Head of People & Operations

Anna Counselman is a co-founder of Upstart, which she helped establish in 2012, and leads the company's People & Operations teams, focusing on customer experience and culture-strategy alignment. Before Upstart, she spent five years at Google, where she managed Gmail Consumer Operations during its growth from 150 million to over 450 million users and launched the global Enterprise Customer Programs team. Her background also includes various operations roles at McMaster Carr and other startups. Counselman received a White House Champion of Change award.

Sanjay Datta, President and Chief Capital Officer

Sanjay Datta was named Upstart's President and Chief Capital Officer, effective February 10, 2026. He joined Upstart over nine years ago as Chief Financial Officer, a role in which he was instrumental in the company's transition from a pre-profit startup to a rapidly growing, profitable publicly traded financial technology company, including managing its December 2020 IPO. His prior experience includes senior roles at Google and Deloitte.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) primarily stem from its reliance on funding partners, the sensitivity of its AI lending model and credit performance to macroeconomic conditions, and an evolving regulatory landscape for AI in finance.

1. Concentration Risk and Reliance on Funding Partners

Upstart faces significant concentration risk due to its heavy reliance on a limited number of bank partners and institutional investors for loan originations and funding. For instance, in 2021, two banks alone contributed 83% of Upstart's revenue, having originated 55% and 36% of the loans on its platform, respectively. A reduction in loan quotas or termination of relationships by these key partners could lead to substantial business disruption, negatively impacting Upstart's financial performance and customer satisfaction. While Upstart operates a capital-light model by referring loans to banks, its growth prospects are directly tied to its ability to attract and retain these funding sources.

2. Credit Performance and Macroeconomic Headwinds

The effectiveness of Upstart's AI-powered lending platform is highly susceptible to credit cycle deterioration and broader macroeconomic conditions, such as rising interest rates and economic slowdowns. Higher interest rates typically reduce loan demand, directly impacting Upstart's revenue. Furthermore, in a weakening economy, increased loan defaults could reduce the appeal of Upstart's platform to lenders and challenge the accuracy of its AI models to predict appropriate credit losses. Although Upstart's model aims to assess credit risk more effectively than traditional methods, its performance under severe, prolonged stressful economic conditions has yet to be fully battle-tested.

3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks, Including AI Bias and Data Privacy

Operating an AI-driven lending platform in the financial industry exposes Upstart to a complex and evolving regulatory environment. This includes potential scrutiny from regulators regarding fairness and transparency in AI lending models, the risk of hidden biases against certain borrowers, and concerns related to data privacy and security when handling sensitive consumer information. Upstart's recent application for a national bank charter, while potentially offering benefits like reduced regulatory friction, also introduces new compliance requirements and operating costs that need to be managed. Non-compliance with these evolving regulations could lead to investigations, enforcement actions, fines, and reputational damage.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The following are clear emerging threats for Upstart (UPST):

  • Erosion of confidence in its AI model's resilience: Upstart's business relies on its proprietary AI model outperforming traditional credit scoring methods, particularly for non-prime borrowers. Emerging evidence from recent periods of economic volatility and rising interest rates has shown challenges for the model to consistently predict credit risk and maintain loan performance, leading to higher-than-expected defaults. This has resulted in significantly reduced demand and increased caution from institutional investors and the securitization market for Upstart-powered loans, threatening the platform's ability to attract and retain the capital necessary for loan growth.
  • Increasing regulatory scrutiny on AI in lending: Governments and financial regulatory bodies are placing increasing focus on the ethical implications, fairness, transparency, and potential for bias in AI models used for credit decisions. The emerging regulatory landscape, potentially including new mandates for algorithmic explainability, bias auditing, or limitations on certain AI methodologies, could necessitate costly modifications to Upstart's core AI platform or restrict its operational scope.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Upstart (UPST) operates in several large addressable markets within the United States for its lending products and services:

  • The total addressable market (TAM) for personal loans, small business loans, auto loans, and home loans is estimated to be more than $3 trillion in annual origination volume in the U.S.
  • The personal loan market in the U.S. is estimated to be approximately $96 billion.
  • The auto loan origination opportunity in the U.S. is valued at $727 billion annually.
  • The small business lending market in the U.S. is an estimated $895 billion annually.
  • The mortgage market in the U.S. is approximately $4.6 trillion.
  • The home equity line of credit (HELOC) market in the U.S. has more than $30 trillion in untapped home equity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Upstart (UPST)

Over the next 2-3 years, Upstart (UPST) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives:

  1. Expansion into New Lending Products: Upstart is actively diversifying its product offerings beyond unsecured personal loans. Significant growth is expected from its expansion into auto retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and newly launched small-dollar loan products, such as the "Cash Line." This strategy taps into larger markets and broadens the company's addressable opportunity.

  2. Growth in Lending Partner Network and Institutional Capital: A crucial driver will be the continued expansion of Upstart's network of AI-enabled bank and credit union partners, along with securing additional institutional funding. An increasing number of lending partners and greater access to capital on its platform directly facilitate higher loan origination volumes.

  3. Advancements in AI Underwriting Models and Automation: Ongoing improvements to Upstart's proprietary artificial intelligence underwriting models are expected to enhance credit assessment accuracy, leading to higher loan conversion rates and greater automation in the lending process. This increased efficiency allows for a higher volume of loans to be processed with improved unit economics and reduced operating costs.

  4. Cross-Selling to Existing Customers: Upstart is focusing on leveraging its current base of millions of borrowers by offering them additional loan products, particularly in areas like auto refinancing. This approach is designed to reduce customer acquisition costs and increase the lifetime value of its customers, thereby contributing to sustained revenue growth.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Upstart's Board of Directors authorized a $400 million share repurchase program.
  • Between February 12 and February 18, 2026, Upstart repurchased $100 million of common stock, acquiring 3,193,294 shares at an average price of $31.31 per share.
  • As of February 19, 2026, $122 million remained available for future repurchases under the $400 million share repurchase program.

Share Issuance

  • In Q2 2025, Upstart received $4.565 million from the issuance of common stock under its employee stock purchase plan and $2.219 million from the exercise of stock options.
  • On February 28, 2026, 912,702 performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) were granted to the Chief Technology Officer as an equity incentive.
  • Upstart issued 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032.

Inbound Investments

  • Upstart secured a 12-month, $1.5 billion forward flow agreement with Castlelake in November 2025.
  • The company finalized a $480 million Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) transaction, UPST 2025-4, in November 2025.
  • In Q4 2024, Upstart noted an upsized $1.3 billion commitment from capital partners and a $150 million personal loan warehouse facility.

Capital Expenditures

  • Upstart emphasizes continued investment in technology to improve the user experience and enhance its AI-driven lending platform.
  • The company's capital allocation includes scaling AI model innovation and advancing competitive rates and processes across its product offerings.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to UPST.

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EEFT_4302026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302026EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
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HOMB_4242026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V204242026HOMBHome BancSharesInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
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HBAN_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026HBANHuntington BancsharesInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
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NP_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026NPNeptune InsuranceInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
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3.9%3.9%0.0%
JKHY_3272026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03272026JKHYJack Henry & AssociatesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.3%0.3%-4.0%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSTSOFILCAFRMPGYALLYMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.LendingC.Affirm Pagaya T.Ally Fin. 
Mkt Price28.6916.2616.5766.4514.5442.7422.63
Mkt Cap2.820.81.922.41.213.38.0
Rev LTM1,1193,9421,0333,9721,2789,3682,610
Op Inc LTM---769244-507
FCF LTM-287-6,345-3,160787234-1-144
FCF 3Y Avg-58-4,257-2,4985589276517
CFO LTM-268-6,079-3,0071,0092474,160-10
CFO 3Y Avg-44-4,064-2,4107411114,25133

Growth & Margins

UPSTSOFILCAFRMPGYALLYMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.LendingC.Affirm Pagaya T.Ally Fin. 
Rev Chg LTM56.6%40.9%25.4%32.1%21.6%10.8%28.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg25.1%32.1%-0.6%38.2%22.1%0.7%23.6%
Rev Chg Q44.4%42.6%15.9%32.6%5.8%34.1%33.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.3%9.1%3.5%6.9%1.3%6.8%6.8%
Op Inc Chg LTM---293.1%205.1%-249.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg---163.7%228.1%-195.9%
Op Mgn LTM---19.4%19.1%-19.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg---1.3%7.8%-4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM---1.4%1.4%-1.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.9%-154.2%-291.0%25.4%19.4%44.4%-2.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.5%-137.4%-270.5%23.9%9.3%47.8%3.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-25.6%-161.0%-305.8%19.8%18.3%-0.0%-12.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.2%-143.8%-279.9%17.8%7.5%8.7%2.1%

Valuation

UPSTSOFILCAFRMPGYALLYMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.LendingC.Affirm Pagaya T.Ally Fin. 
Mkt Cap2.820.81.922.41.213.38.0
P/S2.55.31.95.60.91.42.2
P/Op Inc---29.14.9-17.0
P/EBIT---26.84.9-15.8
P/E56.336.010.958.612.29.524.1
P/CFO-10.4-3.4-0.622.24.93.21.3
Total Yield1.8%2.8%9.2%1.7%8.2%13.4%5.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%-36.2%-199.5%3.9%9.9%6.3%0.5%
D/E0.70.10.00.40.81.60.6
Net D/E0.5-0.2-0.40.3-0.3-0.6-0.2

Returns

UPSTSOFILCAFRMPGYALLYMedian
NameUpstart SoFi Tec.LendingC.Affirm Pagaya T.Ally Fin. 
1M Rtn5.2%0.2%12.2%36.9%24.4%4.3%8.7%
3M Rtn-26.2%-23.8%-4.2%14.7%2.5%2.4%-0.9%
6M Rtn-26.0%-46.8%-12.1%-12.7%-47.3%10.4%-19.3%
12M Rtn-39.2%23.4%56.6%43.2%-0.3%27.2%25.3%
3Y Rtn75.0%223.9%132.4%450.5%38.8%88.4%110.4%
1M Excs Rtn-3.5%-8.5%3.4%28.2%15.6%-4.5%-0.0%
3M Excs Rtn-32.6%-30.3%-10.7%8.2%-4.0%-4.1%-7.4%
6M Excs Rtn-34.3%-50.4%-18.2%-9.6%-48.1%1.9%-26.3%
12M Excs Rtn-71.0%-8.3%25.3%-8.4%-26.0%0.5%-8.3%
3Y Excs Rtn47.7%149.6%72.0%545.3%-30.1%11.6%59.9%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Platform and referral fees, net502414732726200
Servicing and other fees, net1331461757528
Total635560907801229


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$28.69 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.8 
First Trading Date12/16/2020 
Distance from 52W High-65.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$28.90$45.71
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-0.7%-37.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility72.9%70.1%
Downside Capture2.571.92
Upside Capture289.47207.79
Correlation (SPY)54.5%51.9%
UPST Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.962.633.173.212.962.89
Up Beta1.912.052.482.763.472.36
Down Beta9.522.301.662.563.312.73
Up Capture351%384%399%456%294%33056%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days13233265131378
Down Capture749%243%334%257%192%113%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days9203260120371

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-42.6%70.9%-0.49-
Sector ETF (XLF)4.3%14.5%0.0749.8%
Equity (SPY)28.1%12.5%1.7853.6%
Gold (GLD)42.9%26.9%1.30-1.5%
Commodities (DBC)48.6%18.0%2.14-5.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.5%0.7032.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-22.4%41.7%-0.5035.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-23.8%105.1%0.24-
Sector ETF (XLF)8.7%18.6%0.3539.3%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5946.3%
Gold (GLD)21.2%17.9%0.966.3%
Commodities (DBC)13.5%19.1%0.586.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.6%18.8%0.0939.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.5%56.0%0.3623.8%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with UPST
UPST-0.7%114.5%0.51-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.4%22.2%0.5234.4%
Equity (SPY)15.0%17.9%0.7241.1%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.706.8%
Commodities (DBC)9.5%17.7%0.453.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2434.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.1%66.9%1.0719.7%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 4152026-3.2%
Average Daily Volume4.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity96.9 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares27.8%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/2026-7.9%  
2/10/2026-15.0%-19.1%-33.9%
11/4/2025-9.7%-15.8%1.1%
8/5/2025-18.7%-23.3%-20.3%
5/6/2025-9.6%4.4%-0.0%
2/11/202531.8%23.4%-31.2%
11/7/202446.0%21.5%37.7%
8/6/202439.5%58.5%49.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive688
# Negative1077
Median Positive37.1%22.4%28.4%
Median Negative-12.4%-19.1%-29.4%
Max Positive89.3%84.7%132.5%
Max Negative-27.3%-25.5%-42.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/14/202510-K
09/30/202411/08/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total Revenue 1.40 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.40 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue From Fees 1.30 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.30 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 21.0% 00AffirmedGuidance: 21.0% for 2026
2028 Total Revenue CAGR 0.35 0 AffirmedGuidance: 0.35 for 2025-2028
2028 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25.0% 00AffirmedGuidance: 25.0% for 2025-2028

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Total Revenue 1.40 Bil 35.3% Higher NewActual: 1.03 Bil for 2025
2026 Revenue From Fees 1.30 Bil 37.4% Higher NewActual: 946.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 21.0% -4.6%-1.0%Lower NewActual: 22.0% for 2025
2025-2028 Total Revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate 35.0%    
2025-2028 Terminal Adjusted EBITDA Margin 25.0%    

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Girouard, Dave See FootnoteBuy507202629.37170,2404,999,607250,007,983Form
2Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell303202626.0239010,148891,809Form
3Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell226202628.7986624,932728,070Form
4Datta, SanjayChief Financial OfficerDirectSell224202629.867,982238,3758,263,038Form
5Mirgorodskaya, NataliaSee RemarksDirectSell224202629.9063318,925781,959Form