Tearsheet

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $21.8 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $21.8
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 153%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.4%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.4%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 153%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PGY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PGY Return---11%-44%140%50%
Peers Return13%13%-55%16%37%-17%-23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PGY Win Rate--33%33%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate23%55%35%50%53%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PGY Max Drawdown----36%-48%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-1%-59%-38%-40%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, ARQQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPGYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5131.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, ARQQ


In The Past

Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -98.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2022. A -98.1% loss requires a 5131.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Better Bets than Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.7%-10.7%-10.7%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.7%-10.7%-10.7%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-3.5%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-3.9%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.3%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pagaya Technologies

Financials

PGYGENPATHSVRNTARQQMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.Arqit Qu. 
Mkt Price22.3026.1413.5216.1620.2725.9621.29
Mkt Cap1.716.17.25.31.2-5.3
Rev LTM1,1254,4731,497907894-1,125
Op Inc LTM1311,697-46-32877-77
FCF LTM1101,30031017113-113
FCF 3Y Avg271,463268-44120-120
CFO LTM1311,32433541138-138
CFO 3Y Avg511,480282-22149-149

Growth & Margins

PGYGENPATHSVRNTARQQMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.Arqit Qu. 
Rev Chg LTM26.2%16.2%8.3%25.4%-2.3%-16.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.7%16.5%14.6%45.6%-0.2%-16.5%
Rev Chg Q31.0%25.3%14.4%21.7%-1.0%-21.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.2%5.8%3.1%5.0%-0.2%-5.0%
Op Mgn LTM11.6%37.9%-3.1%-36.2%8.6%-8.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.8%36.7%-12.6%-53.2%8.9%--4.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.0%-1.3%5.8%2.1%-1.2%-2.1%
CFO/Rev LTM11.7%29.6%22.4%4.5%15.5%-15.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%37.1%20.7%-5.5%16.6%-16.6%
FCF/Rev LTM9.8%29.1%20.7%1.8%12.6%-12.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.6%36.7%19.6%-8.7%13.4%-13.4%

Valuation

PGYGENPATHSVRNTARQQMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.Arqit Qu. 
Mkt Cap1.716.17.25.31.2-5.3
P/S1.53.64.85.91.4-3.6
P/EBIT13.110.0-156.4-17.515.2-10.0
P/E-6.128.2359.4-12.519.9-19.9
P/CFO13.112.221.7131.58.8-13.1
Total Yield-16.4%5.5%0.3%-8.0%5.0%-0.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%9.5%3.6%-1.0%7.1%-3.6%
D/E0.40.50.00.00.4-0.4
Net D/E0.30.5-0.2-0.10.2-0.2

Returns

PGYGENPATHSVRNTARQQMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.Arqit Qu. 
1M Rtn-15.8%-1.0%-12.4%-3.1%0.1%-37.4%-7.8%
3M Rtn-34.4%-16.3%21.0%-5.0%4.2%-20.1%-10.6%
6M Rtn54.5%-7.4%7.4%-19.2%13.1%7.0%7.2%
12M Rtn153.1%-9.7%9.3%-38.1%-13.7%227.8%-0.2%
3Y Rtn80.4%23.1%8.2%-2.9%-47.7%-86.5%2.6%
1M Excs Rtn-16.0%-1.1%-12.6%-3.2%0.0%-37.6%-7.9%
3M Excs Rtn-32.7%-20.7%18.9%-8.7%2.2%-17.5%-13.1%
6M Excs Rtn42.7%-19.3%-4.5%-31.0%1.2%-4.9%-4.7%
12M Excs Rtn107.6%-23.9%-11.6%-53.1%-32.6%169.5%-17.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-37.8%-44.9%-54.7%-77.9%-113.2%-157.7%-66.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,132,492
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520251.8%
Average Daily Volume3,611,080
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.36
Basic Shares Quantity76,873,529
Short % of Basic Shares15.8%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/202512.8%  
7/17/202525.4%43.0%42.5%
5/7/2025-2.1%30.2%45.8%
2/13/202524.3%36.3%-10.4%
11/12/2024-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%
8/9/2024-5.8%-19.3%-20.4%
5/9/202420.0%16.0%17.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive443
# Negative334
Median Positive22.1%33.3%42.5%
Median Negative-5.8%-34.3%-20.4%
Max Positive25.4%43.0%45.8%
Max Negative-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023425202410-K 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202381720236-K 6/30/2023
331202351620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022420202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
6302022101920226-K 6/30/2022
123120215272022DEFM14A 12/31/2021
630202181620226-K 6/30/2021

Insider Activity

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