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Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $15.57 | Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Specialized Finance

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $15.57
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Specialized Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 18%

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -19%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%

Key risks
PGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 18%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -19%
7 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
8 Key risks
PGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) stock has lost about 20% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Analyst Price Target Revisions Post-Q4 2025 Earnings.

Despite Pagaya reporting strong Q4 2025 results on February 9, 2026, which included a GAAP net income of $34 million (up $272 million year-over-year) and diluted EPS of $0.80 that beat analyst estimates by 15.94%, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets. For example, Benchmark reduced its price objective from $48.00 to $33.00, Citigroup from $40.00 to $32.00, and Jefferies from $35.00 to $30.00, around February 10-12, 2026. These significant downward adjustments to future valuation expectations, even while maintaining "buy" ratings, likely contributed to a market re-evaluation and exerted downward pressure on the stock.

2. Impact of Challenging Macroeconomic Environment and Higher Cost of Capital.

Throughout the period, Pagaya operated within a "challenging macroeconomic environment" and faced "market volatility," as noted in its Q1 2026 earnings report. These broader market conditions contributed to a "higher cost of capital and a tighter pricing" in Q1 2026. This external pressure resulted in a contraction of "Revenue from fees less production costs" (FRLPC) as a percentage of network volume, which decreased by 19 basis points year-over-year to 4.6%. Such macroeconomic headwinds likely impacted the company's profitability margins and overall investor sentiment, despite the company's efforts.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -20.1% change in PGY stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265072026Change
Stock Price ($)19.3915.50-20.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2161,2613.7%
P/S Multiple1.31.0-19.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7982-4.3%
Cumulative Contribution-20.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PGY-20.1% 
Market (SPY)3.6%47.9%
Sector (XLF)-3.0%59.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -42.4% change in PGY stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255072026Change
Stock Price ($)26.8915.50-42.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,1251,26112.1%
P/S Multiple1.81.0-45.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7782-6.4%
Cumulative Contribution-42.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PGY-42.4% 
Market (SPY)5.5%55.4%
Sector (XLF)-0.7%52.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 41.4% change in PGY stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)43020255072026Change
Stock Price ($)10.9615.5041.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0051,26125.6%
P/S Multiple0.81.023.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7582-9.0%
Cumulative Contribution41.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PGY41.4% 
Market (SPY)30.4%51.3%
Sector (XLF)7.4%48.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 49.0% change in PGY stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)43020235072026Change
Stock Price ($)10.4015.5049.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6851,26184.0%
P/S Multiple0.91.016.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5782-30.6%
Cumulative Contribution49.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PGY49.0% 
Market (SPY)78.7%44.5%
Sector (XLF)63.1%42.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
PGY Return--80%11%-44%125%-29%-80%
Peers Return79%-77%152%37%1%-17%19%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%96%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PGY Win Rate-29%33%50%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate43%22%52%43%55%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PGY Max Drawdown--91%-36%-48%-8%-49% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-79%-15%-39%-51%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UPST, SOFI, AFRM, LC, LPRO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventPGYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-46.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven85.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven49 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-50.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven633 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-41.6%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven54 days31 days

Compare to UPST, SOFI, AFRM, LC, LPRO

In The Past

Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -46.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 85.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventPGYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-46.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven85.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven49 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-50.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.7%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven633 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-41.6%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven54 days31 days

Compare to UPST, SOFI, AFRM, LC, LPRO

In The Past

Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -46.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 85.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Stripe for AI-driven loan origination: Like Stripe simplifies payment processing for businesses, Pagaya provides AI technology that simplifies and improves loan origination decisions for financial institutions.

An 'Intel Inside' for financial institutions' lending decisions: Similar to how Intel provides the core processing power for computers, Pagaya offers essential AI technology that powers and enhances the lending decisions of its financial partners.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • AI-powered Loan Origination Platform: Pagaya develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist its partners in originating loans and other assets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) sells its proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions primarily to other companies. While specific names of individual customer companies are not typically disclosed by Pagaya, their major customers fall into the following categories of financial institutions and service providers:

  • High-growth financial technology companies: These are other fintech firms that utilize Pagaya's AI to enhance their loan origination and asset management processes.
  • Incumbent financial institutions: Traditional banks and credit unions that integrate Pagaya's technology into their lending operations.
  • Auto finance providers: Companies specializing in the origination and servicing of automobile loans.
  • Brokers: Entities that facilitate lending activities and leverage Pagaya's platform.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Gal Krubiner Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer Mr. Krubiner co-founded Pagaya in 2016 and has served as CEO since its inception. He possesses extensive experience in the investments and wealth management industry, specializing in innovative and sophisticated credit structured products. Before co-founding Pagaya, Mr. Krubiner focused on structuring and distributing sophisticated credit and asset-backed securities products at UBS AG. His prior entrepreneurial experience includes co-founding and serving as CEO of Super Price from 2011 to 2012, and he was an Investment Manager and Board Member at ORMOR CAPITAL from 2009 to 2012. Evangelos Perros Chief Financial Officer Mr. Perros was named Chief Financial Officer effective February 20, 2024, after serving as Interim CFO since November 2023. He joined Pagaya in 2021 as Deputy CFO and Head of Strategic Finance. With over 25 years of industry experience, Mr. Perros has held leadership roles at several top-tier financial institutions. His previous positions include Managing Director and Head of Business Planning & Analysis at Apollo Global Management, and various leadership roles at JPMorgan Chase & Co, including Managing Director and Head of COO Financial Analytics & Strategic Expense Management, and an Investment Banker in the Mergers & Acquisitions Group. Avital Pardo Co-Founder and Deputy Chief Executive Officer Mr. Pardo co-founded Pagaya in 2016 and has served as Chief Technology Officer and a director since then. He was instrumental in designing Pagaya's AI-based credit model and system. Prior to co-founding Pagaya, Mr. Pardo was one of the first employees at Fundbox, where he focused on algorithms. Yahav Yulzari Co-Founder and Deputy Chief Executive Officer Mr. Yulzari co-founded Pagaya in 2016 and has served as Chief Revenue Officer and a director since then. He is responsible for overseeing Pagaya's growth and global commercial activities. Mr. Yulzari is also a former real estate entrepreneur. Sanjiv Das Co-Founder and President Mr. Das joined Pagaya as President in 2023, bringing over 30 years of experience in financial services. In his role, he oversees the strategy and growth of the company's commercial business, including its single-family rental business and Darwin subsidiary. Prior to Pagaya, Mr. Das served as CEO of Caliber Home Loans and held positions as CEO, President, and Chairman of the Board for Citi's Mortgage Division, as well as Head of all International Businesses at Citi.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Pagaya Technologies (PGY):

  1. Reliance on Securitization Markets and Exposure to Credit Risk: Pagaya Technologies heavily depends on securitization, primarily through asset-backed securities (ABS), for its funding model. In 2024, approximately 90% of its funding was derived from ABS securitizations. The company faces significant risks from market volatility, deterioration in credit conditions, and reduced investor appetite, which could severely impact its ability to fund operations. Furthermore, regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. (e.g., risk-retention, Volcker Rule) and proposed Israeli securitization frameworks could impose compliance burdens and limit access to investors. Pagaya retains at least 5% of each ABS issuance to comply with risk-retention regulations, exposing it to credit risk through these retained interests. Any decline in the performance of these underlying loans, many of which are "second-look" loans originally rejected by traditional lenders, directly affects Pagaya's balance sheet and investor confidence in its underwriting capabilities.
  2. Intense Competition in the Fintech Industry: The financial technology sector is highly competitive and characterized by rapid innovation. Pagaya Technologies operates in this environment, facing numerous players vying for market share. The company must continuously differentiate its offerings and maintain its technological lead to avoid erosion of its market position by competitors with similar or superior artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
  3. Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Conditions and Regulatory Changes: Pagaya's business performance is susceptible to broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation, interest rate fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, all of which can impact investor confidence and the availability of funding. Tighter credit conditions, for example, could lead to a slowdown in loan origination volumes, challenging Pagaya's volume-dependent business model. Additionally, the company operates in a dynamic regulatory landscape concerning AI, machine learning, and financial services, where evolving rules could lead to increased compliance costs or restrict its operational flexibility.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emerging threat for Pagaya Technologies is the increasing capability and strategic imperative for its financial institution and financial technology partners to develop and implement their own proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions for loan origination and asset management. As AI tools become more accessible and sophisticated, and as partners gain more experience and build internal data science teams, they may choose to insource these critical capabilities, thereby reducing or eliminating their reliance on third-party providers like Pagaya.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) operates in several significant addressable markets related to artificial intelligence in financial technology and lending.

One direct area for Pagaya Technologies is the market for AI in lending. The global artificial intelligence (AI) in lending market was valued at approximately $11.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $37.28 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2%. In 2023, North America held a dominant share of this market, valued at approximately US$2.8 billion.

Another closely related market is AI platform lending. The global AI platform lending market size was valued at USD 128.06 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 1.16 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of over 24.7% during the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to command a 32% revenue share in this market by 2035.

Pagaya's services also fall within the broader loan origination software market. Globally, this market was valued at USD 6.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 19.69 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 13.2% between 2026 and 2033. Specifically for North America, the loan origination software market is projected to hold a 43% share by 2035. Another estimate places the global loan origination software market at USD 6.58 billion in 2025, growing to $11.48 billion in 2030.

Furthermore, Pagaya operates within the larger artificial intelligence in fintech market. The global AI in fintech market was estimated at US$22.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach US$79.4 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 19.8% from 2023 to 2030. The U.S. segment of the AI in fintech market alone generated approximately USD 3.3 billion in revenue in 2022 and is expected to reach about USD 9.36 billion by 2030.

Pagaya Technologies itself anticipates becoming a multi-product lending technology enterprise with a "multi-trillion dollar addressable market" in the U.S. over the next few years.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion of Partner Network and New Verticals: Pagaya is actively onboarding new financial institution partners, including large U.S. banks, auto captives, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) providers. For instance, the company recently announced onboarding Achieve, GLS, and a leading Buy Now Pay Later provider. Pagaya has also expanded its point-of-sale (POS) business with a bank partner set to go live in the second half of 2024, and added Elavon (U.S. Bank's Merchant Services and Payment Solutions) to its POS vertical. This expansion into new partnerships and product verticals, such as auto and POS financing, widens its market reach within the U.S. consumer credit landscape.
  2. Deepening Existing Partner Relationships and Multi-Product Adoption: A significant driver of growth comes from expanding the volume and breadth of services offered to existing partners, encouraging them to adopt multiple Pagaya products. Multi-product partners currently account for a substantial portion of the company's network volume. Pagaya's CEO, Gal Krubiner, highlighted that the company's "earning power and cash flow generation will become more robust as partners continue maturing into multiproduct relationships." The company emphasizes expanding products to boost partner customer value.
  3. Enhancement of Unit Economics and Monetization: Pagaya is focused on improving the profitability of each transaction by enhancing its unit economics. This is reflected in the growth of its fee revenue less production costs (FRLPC), which significantly outpaced network volume growth in Q1 2024, increasing by 84% year-over-year. The company is improving unit economics with its lending partners as channels scale and aims to maintain a fee-related-performance margin between 4% and 5%.
  4. Continued Advancement and Application of AI Technology: Pagaya's proprietary artificial intelligence technology is central to its value proposition. The ongoing refinement and expansion of its AI, particularly for loan origination, credit scoring, and asset-backed securities, are expected to lead to higher transaction volumes, improved margins, and stronger partnership growth. This AI-driven credit decisioning engine also enhances operational efficiency and helps in maintaining prudent underwriting standards while expanding network volume.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Pagaya Technologies repurchased approximately $14.3 million of its 8.875% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2030 in 2025.
  • Since December 26, 2025, the company repurchased approximately $6.9 million in aggregate principal amount of its 8.875% Senior Notes due 2030 through open-market transactions.
  • The company considers these debt repurchases, made at a discount, an attractive use of capital within its capital allocation strategy.

Share Issuance

  • In 2023, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported an issuance of Preferred Shares amounting to USD 74.3 million.
  • Pagaya's CEO, President, Chairman, Chief Development Officer, and other co-founders purchased approximately $2 million of the Company's Class A ordinary shares.

Inbound Investments

  • Pagaya secured a forward flow agreement with Blue Owl Capital in February 2025 to purchase up to $2.4 billion in consumer loans over 24 months.
  • The company has raised $27 billion through its ABS program across 66 transactions with over 130 institutional funding partners.
  • In 2023 alone, Pagaya raised $6.6 billion across 15 asset-backed securitizations (ABS), engaging with over 100 institutional investment firms.
  • In March 2026, Pagaya closed a $400 million RPM 2026-1 Auto ABS Transaction, and in February 2026, launched its 2026 capital markets activity with an $800 million Consumer Loan ABS.

Capital Expenditures

  • Pagaya Technologies' annual capital expenditures for FY 2025 were $13.90 million.
  • Capital expenditures in a recent quarter (likely Q4 2025) totaled $3.24 million.
  • The company's Capital Expenditures 1Y Growth was -21.6% in 2025, indicating a year-over-year decrease.

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Mkt Price15.5029.0016.0067.3616.691.6216.34
Mkt Cap1.32.820.422.51.90.22.4
Rev LTM1,2611,1193,9423,7161,033931,190
Op Inc LTM224--666--5224
FCF LTM225-287-6,345619-3,160-4-146
FCF 3Y Avg69-58-4,257422-2,49830-14
CFO LTM239-268-6,079833-3,007-3-135
CFO 3Y Avg88-44-4,064594-2,41032-6

Growth & Margins

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Rev Chg LTM25.6%56.6%40.9%32.7%25.4%288.0%36.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.8%25.1%32.1%36.1%-0.6%58.0%28.6%
Rev Chg Q16.5%44.4%42.6%29.6%15.9%134.0%36.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%9.3%9.1%7.4%3.5%450.0%8.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM471.8%--2,030.7%-92.3%471.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg237.7%--725.3%--100.9%237.7%
Op Mgn LTM17.7%--17.9%--5.4%17.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.5%---4.5%--84.3%-4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%--2.3%-492.2%2.5%
CFO/Rev LTM18.9%-23.9%-154.2%22.4%-291.0%-3.4%-13.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%-1.5%-137.4%19.7%-270.5%46.7%2.8%
FCF/Rev LTM17.8%-25.6%-161.0%16.7%-305.8%-4.5%-15.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%-3.2%-143.8%13.4%-279.9%40.3%0.9%

Valuation

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Mkt Cap1.32.820.422.51.90.22.4
P/S1.02.55.26.11.92.02.3
P/Op Inc5.7--33.8--38.25.7
P/EBIT5.7--30.9-44.530.9
P/E15.656.935.479.811.0-45.125.5
P/CFO5.3-10.5-3.427.0-0.6-59.8-2.0
Total Yield6.4%1.8%2.8%1.3%9.1%-2.2%2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.2%-3.0%-36.2%1.9%-199.5%2.5%-0.5%
D/E0.70.70.10.40.00.70.5
Net D/E-0.30.5-0.20.3-0.4-0.2-0.2

Returns

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
1M Rtn27.8%9.6%-0.7%42.1%15.1%28.6%21.4%
3M Rtn-6.9%-16.2%-17.8%13.4%6.4%-3.6%-5.2%
6M Rtn-33.7%-23.1%-41.1%2.1%-7.3%0.6%-15.2%
12M Rtn37.8%-37.6%23.0%30.7%62.4%4.5%26.8%
3Y Rtn56.2%116.7%192.5%464.2%142.9%-78.2%129.8%
1M Excs Rtn17.1%-2.0%-11.1%27.1%2.9%6.7%4.8%
3M Excs Rtn-14.8%-24.2%-25.7%5.4%-1.6%-11.5%-13.2%
6M Excs Rtn-46.7%-45.6%-53.9%-14.0%-14.4%-14.7%-30.2%
12M Excs Rtn4.0%-74.4%-5.2%1.2%36.0%-11.7%-2.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-18.6%61.6%148.1%569.5%72.9%-154.6%67.2%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment1,005773   
Revenue from fees  68544692
Total1,00577368544692


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$15.50 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.3 
First Trading Date06/23/2022 
Distance from 52W High-64.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$12.47$23.19
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA24.3%-33.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility85.9%82.2%
Downside Capture1.471.76
Upside Capture177.73280.26
Correlation (SPY)45.2%50.5%
PGY Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.432.212.773.293.362.73
Up Beta1.611.703.143.773.762.46
Down Beta8.061.271.252.733.342.22
Up Capture269%339%200%276%667%16026%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days15263462131364
Down Capture995%227%312%258%196%113%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days7162962119373

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with PGY
PGY33.7%82.2%0.71-
Sector ETF (XLF)6.5%14.6%0.2248.1%
Equity (SPY)29.6%12.5%1.8651.2%
Gold (GLD)37.0%27.1%1.14-4.0%
Commodities (DBC)48.7%18.0%2.12-4.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.9%13.5%0.6520.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-16.3%42.1%-0.3138.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with PGY
PGY-26.8%146.0%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.2%18.6%0.3725.5%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5926.1%
Gold (GLD)21.1%17.9%0.961.6%
Commodities (DBC)14.1%19.1%0.604.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.3%18.8%0.0823.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.0%56.0%0.3414.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with PGY
PGY-14.4%146.0%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.6%22.2%0.5225.5%
Equity (SPY)15.0%17.9%0.7226.1%
Gold (GLD)13.5%16.0%0.701.6%
Commodities (DBC)9.4%17.8%0.444.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2423.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.2%66.9%1.0714.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3312026-3.9%
Average Daily Volume3.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity82.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares16.6%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/20264.5%  
2/9/2026-23.9%-33.3%-39.2%
11/10/202512.8%-2.2%1.0%
7/17/202525.4%43.0%42.5%
5/7/2025-2.1%30.2%45.8%
2/13/202524.3%36.3%-10.4%
11/12/2024-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%
8/9/2024-5.8%-19.3%-20.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive544
# Negative444
Median Positive20.0%33.3%30.0%
Median Negative-14.9%-26.3%-29.8%
Max Positive25.4%43.0%45.8%
Max Negative-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202403/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/09/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202304/25/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/20236-K
06/30/202308/17/20236-K
03/31/202305/16/20236-K
12/31/202204/20/202320-F
09/30/202211/10/20226-K
06/30/202210/19/20226-K
12/31/202105/27/2022DEFM14A

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/9/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Network Volume2.50 Bil2.60 Bil2.70 Bil   
Q1 2026 Total Revenue and Other Income315.00 Mil325.00 Mil335.00 Mil   
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA80.00 Mil87.50 Mil95.00 Mil   
Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income15.00 Mil25.00 Mil35.00 Mil   
2026 Network Volume11.25 Bil12.12 Bil13.00 Bil   
2026 Total Revenue and Other Income1.40 Bil1.49 Bil1.57 Bil   
2026 Adjusted EBITDA410.00 Mil435.00 Mil460.00 Mil   
2026 GAAP Net Income100.00 Mil125.00 Mil150.00 Mil   

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Network Volume2.65 Bil2.77 Bil2.90 Bil   
Q4 2025 Total Revenue and Other Income333.00 Mil345.50 Mil358.00 Mil   
Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA99.00 Mil104.00 Mil109.00 Mil   
Q4 2025 GAAP Net Income25.00 Mil30.00 Mil35.00 Mil   
2025 Network Volume10.50 Bil10.62 Bil10.75 Bil-3.4% LoweredGuidance: 11.00 Bil for 2025
2025 Total Revenue and Other Income1.30 Bil1.31 Bil1.32 Bil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 1.29 Bil for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDA372.00 Mil377.00 Mil382.00 Mil5.5% RaisedGuidance: 357.50 Mil for 2025
2025 GAAP Net Income72.00 Mil77.00 Mil82.00 Mil18.5% RaisedGuidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Rosen, Tami DirectSell420202615.149,720147,161568,416Form
2Perros, EvangelosChief Financial OfficerDirectSell402202611.3413,004147,4651,385,453Form
3Das, SanjivPresidentDirectSell316202610.999,702106,6251,582,929Form
4Perros, EvangelosChief Financial OfficerDirectSell316202610.998,42592,5911,235,408Form
5Rosen, TamiChief Development OfficerDirectSell316202610.995,90564,896519,431Form

Industry Resources

External Quote Links


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