Tearsheet

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $25.21 | Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $25.21
Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.7%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.7%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PGY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that could have contributed to the -32.5% stock movement for Pagaya Technologies (PGY) between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025: 1. Lower-than-expected Q2 2025 Earnings Per Share. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.64, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 per share. While this earnings report was released on August 7, 2025, prior to the specified period, the market's reaction or continued sentiment from this miss could have carried over and influenced the stock price in the subsequent weeks.

2. Network Volume at the Lower End of Management Guidance in Q3. Although Pagaya Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results with an earnings beat and revenue outperformance, the network volume was noted to be on the lower end of management's guidance. This could have created some concern among investors regarding the company's growth trajectory or future performance, despite overall positive results.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PGY Return---11%-44%168%67%
Peers Return13%13%-38%33%-9%-1%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PGY Win Rate--33%33%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate23%40%30%45%45%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PGY Max Drawdown----36%-48%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-1%-42%-20%-26%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPGYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5131.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -98.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2022. A -98.1% loss requires a 5131.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Better Bets than Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
8.0%8.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pagaya Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PGYGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Price24.8827.0618.4816.97-10.1818.48
Mkt Cap1.916.79.95.6--7.8
Rev LTM1,1254,4731,497907--1,311
Op Inc LTM1311,697-46-328--42
FCF LTM1101,30031017--210
FCF 3Y Avg271,463268-44--148
CFO LTM1311,32433541--233
CFO 3Y Avg511,480282-22--167

Growth & Margins

PGYGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Rev Chg LTM26.2%16.2%8.3%25.4%--20.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.7%16.5%14.6%45.6%--20.1%
Rev Chg Q31.0%25.3%14.4%21.7%--23.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.2%5.8%3.1%5.0%--5.4%
Op Mgn LTM11.6%37.9%-3.1%-36.2%--4.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.8%36.7%-12.6%-53.2%---8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.0%-1.3%5.8%2.1%--3.0%
CFO/Rev LTM11.7%29.6%22.4%4.5%--17.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%37.1%20.7%-5.5%--12.5%
FCF/Rev LTM9.8%29.1%20.7%1.8%--15.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.6%36.7%19.6%-8.7%--10.6%

Valuation

PGYGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Cap1.916.79.95.6--7.8
P/S1.53.94.66.7--4.2
P/EBIT12.510.9-148.1-19.8---4.5
P/E-5.830.7340.3-14.1--12.4
P/CFO12.513.220.5148.8--16.9
Total Yield-17.1%5.0%0.3%-7.1%---3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%9.5%3.6%-1.0%--2.5%
D/E0.50.50.00.0--0.2
Net D/E0.30.5-0.2-0.1--0.1

Returns

PGYGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NamePagaya T.Gen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
1M Rtn-1.1%5.1%29.5%0.6%-19.3%5.1%
3M Rtn-33.1%-7.9%70.3%-6.5%---7.2%
6M Rtn48.5%-6.3%39.4%-6.3%--16.5%
12M Rtn140.6%-13.1%20.5%-40.8%--3.7%
3Y Rtn133.1%22.2%39.9%19.1%--31.0%
1M Excs Rtn-2.4%3.8%28.2%-0.7%-18.1%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-39.0%-13.6%55.0%-15.2%---14.4%
6M Excs Rtn33.1%-21.8%23.9%-21.8%--1.1%
12M Excs Rtn116.8%-24.4%13.9%-51.5%---5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn28.0%-45.8%-16.3%-63.4%---31.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,711,960
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.8%
Average Daily Volume5,602,046
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.27
Basic Shares Quantity76,873,529
Short % of Basic Shares16.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023425202410-K 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202381720236-K 6/30/2023
331202351620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022420202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
6302022101920226-K 6/30/2022
123120215272022DEFM14A 12/31/2021
630202181620226-K 6/30/2021