Tearsheet

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.25 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Pagaya Technologies (PGY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.25
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 126%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
  Key risks
PGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 126%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154%
7 Key risks
PGY key risks include [1] significant credit impairment losses from its practice of retaining the riskiest loan tranches, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PGY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



Pagaya Technologies (PGY) experienced a significant stock decline of -40.3% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, attributed to several key factors:

1. Concerns over deteriorating credit performance in the broader industry. A negative outlook emerged for Pagaya Technologies due to reports highlighting deteriorating credit performance at a peer company, Upstart. This raised concerns about a broader macroeconomic trend affecting the credit environment, which could potentially impact Pagaya's operations.

2. Industry caution regarding increasing delinquencies. The industry faced caution associated with increasing delinquencies, and Pagaya's strategy to approve more borrowers was seen to compound risks surrounding the company's future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PGY Return11%-44%140%
Peers Return-77%152%37%3%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PGY Win Rate33%33%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%22%52%43%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PGY Max Drawdown-36%-48%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-79%-15%-39%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UPST, SOFI, AFRM, LC, LPRO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPGYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven5131.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -98.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2022. A -98.1% loss requires a 5131.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Better Bets than Pagaya Technologies (PGY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pagaya Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Mkt Price22.0345.0525.2772.0418.381.7423.65
Mkt Cap2.34.429.625.12.10.23.3
Rev LTM1,2169593,3223,459950171,088
Op Inc LTM186--540--84186
FCF LTM185-385-3,179769-2,151-14-200
FCF 3Y Avg58-153-4,671361-1,93836-59
CFO LTM205-367-2,951972-2,009-12-190
CFO 3Y Avg78-139-4,506527-1,85438-51

Growth & Margins

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Rev Chg LTM29.5%73.6%34.0%37.0%25.7%-82.3%31.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.3%10.8%33.4%34.4%-4.8%-48.3%17.1%
Rev Chg Q36.3%70.9%38.6%33.6%31.9%3.0%35.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.1%13.6%8.8%7.3%7.3%4.3%7.7%
Op Mgn LTM15.3%--15.6%--497.5%15.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.7%---13.4%--153.3%-13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.7%--5.1%--37.6%3.7%
CFO/Rev LTM16.9%-38.3%-88.8%28.1%-211.5%-70.9%-54.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%-16.7%-204.8%17.8%-224.6%12.2%-5.1%
FCF/Rev LTM15.2%-40.2%-95.7%22.2%-226.5%-83.1%-61.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.4%-18.8%-211.1%11.2%-233.9%6.6%-7.2%

Valuation

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
Mkt Cap2.34.429.625.12.10.23.3
P/S1.95.19.37.41.814.76.2
P/EBIT---37.8--3.417.2
P/E-12.2152.548.3109.216.8-1.732.6
P/CFO11.4-13.4-10.526.2-0.9-20.7-5.7
Total Yield-8.2%0.7%2.1%0.9%5.9%-60.3%0.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--4.3%-50.4%1.6%-144.9%3.0%-4.3%
D/E-0.40.10.30.00.70.3
Net D/E-0.3-0.10.2-0.5-0.2-0.1

Returns

PGYUPSTSOFIAFRMLCLPROMedian
NamePagaya T.Upstart SoFi Tec.Affirm LendingC.Open Len. 
1M Rtn-1.2%24.9%-6.5%5.7%13.5%11.5%8.6%
3M Rtn-47.5%-33.9%-6.9%-20.3%6.7%-18.3%-19.3%
6M Rtn16.9%-23.7%64.5%16.8%63.8%-17.1%16.8%
12M Rtn126.2%-45.7%51.7%1.6%3.3%-73.5%2.5%
3Y Rtn196.1%193.7%444.6%611.9%104.7%-75.1%194.9%
1M Excs Rtn-1.9%24.2%-7.3%4.9%12.8%10.8%7.9%
3M Excs Rtn-51.1%-35.1%-11.5%-21.2%2.8%-24.4%-22.8%
6M Excs Rtn4.5%-36.1%52.1%4.4%51.4%-29.5%4.5%
12M Excs Rtn117.4%-57.7%44.4%-9.2%-0.1%-80.7%-4.6%
3Y Excs Rtn101.5%91.1%399.4%418.7%24.4%-143.4%96.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment773   
Revenue from fees 68544692
Total77368544692


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,317,373
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.1%
Average Daily Volume3,057,237
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.03
Basic Shares Quantity78,539,137
Short % of Basic Shares15.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/202512.8%-2.2%1.0%
7/17/202525.4%43.0%42.5%
5/7/2025-2.1%30.2%45.8%
2/13/202524.3%36.3%-10.4%
11/12/2024-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%
8/9/2024-5.8%-19.3%-20.4%
5/9/202420.0%16.0%17.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive444
# Negative333
Median Positive22.1%33.3%30.0%
Median Negative-5.8%-19.3%-20.4%
Max Positive25.4%43.0%45.8%
Max Negative-35.6%-49.2%-42.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023425202410-K 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202381720236-K 6/30/2023
331202351620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022420202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
6302022101920226-K 6/30/2022
123120215272022DEFM14A 12/31/2021
630202181620226-K 6/30/2021