Pagaya Technologies (PGY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $25.21 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Pagaya Technologies (PGY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $25.21Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Credit Underwriting. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 111% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PGY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that could have contributed to the -32.5% stock movement for Pagaya Technologies (PGY) between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025:
1. Lower-than-expected Q2 2025 Earnings Per Share. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.64, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 per share. While this earnings report was released on August 7, 2025, prior to the specified period, the market's reaction or continued sentiment from this miss could have carried over and influenced the stock price in the subsequent weeks.
2. Network Volume at the Lower End of Management Guidance in Q3. Although Pagaya Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results with an earnings beat and revenue outperformance, the network volume was noted to be on the lower end of management's guidance. This could have created some concern among investors regarding the company's growth trajectory or future performance, despite overall positive results.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PGY Return | - | - | - | 11% | -44% | 168% | 67% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -1% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PGY Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 33% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PGY Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -36% | -48% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PGY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5131.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Pagaya Technologies's stock fell -98.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2022. A -98.1% loss requires a 5131.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With Pagaya Technologies Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Day 6 of Gains Streak for Pagaya Technologies Stock with 43% Return (vs. 262% YTD) [7/23/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Pagaya Technologies Stock with 35% Return (vs. 241% YTD) [7/22/2025] | Notification | ||
| PGY Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Time To Buy Pagaya Technologies Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Pagaya Technologies (PGY) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 18th, 2025 | ||
| PGY Stock Up 43% after 6-Day Win Streak | July 24th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 23rd, 2025 | ||
| PGY Stock Up 35% after 5-Day Win Streak | July 23rd, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LCID, SOC, PGY | Losers: CDNA, ELV, SAH | July 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PGY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pagaya Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,311 |
| Op Inc LTM | 42 |
| FCF LTM | 210 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 148 |
| CFO LTM | 233 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 167 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -4.5 |
| P/E | 12.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4202023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10192022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5272022 | DEFM14A 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8162022 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |