Venture Global (VG)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Venture Global (VG)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $0Market Cap: $-Sector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 124% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -41% Key risksVG key risks include [1] potential multi-billion dollar liabilities from significant legal disputes and arbitration with major customers over alleged contract defaults, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 124% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -41% |
| Key risksVG key risks include [1] potential multi-billion dollar liabilities from significant legal disputes and arbitration with major customers over alleged contract defaults, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Venture Global (VG) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Venture Global reported strong financial results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), surpassing analyst expectations and increasing full-year guidance. The company announced revenue of $4.6 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 48% increase from fiscal Q2 2025, and income from operations rose by 111% to $2.2 billion. Venture Global also beat the consensus earnings per share estimate by $0.01, reporting $0.51 per share. Reflecting a positive outlook, management subsequently raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.7-$9.1 billion.
2. The company announced a strategic expansion into AI utility and data center power generation. On October 15, 2026, Venture Global entered into power and grid frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 new 720 MW power island units. This initiative aims to develop up to 10 GW of new compute capacity at company-owned sites, leveraging its existing natural gas and LNG infrastructure to provide grid-independent power for data centers, thereby diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional LNG exports.
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Venture Global (VG) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Venture Global reported strong financial results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), surpassing analyst expectations and increasing full-year guidance. The company announced revenue of $4.6 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 48% increase from fiscal Q2 2025, and income from operations rose by 111% to $2.2 billion. Venture Global also beat the consensus earnings per share estimate by $0.01, reporting $0.51 per share. Reflecting a positive outlook, management subsequently raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.7-$9.1 billion.
2. The company announced a strategic expansion into AI utility and data center power generation. On October 15, 2026, Venture Global entered into power and grid frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 new 720 MW power island units. This initiative aims to develop up to 10 GW of new compute capacity at company-owned sites, leveraging its existing natural gas and LNG infrastructure to provide grid-independent power for data centers, thereby diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional LNG exports.
3. Global LNG demand intensified and prices rose due to disruptions in Middle Eastern supply. Geopolitical conflicts at the end of February 2026 led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly disrupting LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE, which historically account for nearly 20% of global LNG supply. This supply shock, coupled with low European gas inventories, led to increased competition for LNG cargoes, particularly from Atlantic Basin producers like the U.S. As a result, European benchmark TTF prices moved higher during fiscal Q3 2026, reaching approximately 84.50 EUR/MWh.
4. Venture Global continued to advance its significant LNG capacity expansion projects. The company made substantial progress on the commissioning of its Plaquemines LNG facility, which was a primary driver for higher LNG sales volumes and increased financial results in fiscal Q2 2026. Additionally, Venture Global is progressing with the brownfield expansions of its CP2 and Plaquemines projects, which are expected to add 10 MTPA and 6 MTPA of capacity by late 2028 and 2029, respectively, ultimately bringing the company's total production capacity to approximately 85 MTPA by 2029.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.4% change in VG stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.10 | 12.81 | 15.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,474 | 16,951 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 21.2% | 25.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 8.9 | -15.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,463 | 2,489 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VG | 15.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -30.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.2% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.4% change in VG stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.70 | 12.81 | -18.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,769 | 16,951 | 23.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 21.2% | 15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 8.9 | -41.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,450 | 2,489 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VG | -18.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | -38.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 11.1% | 70.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.0% change in VG stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.07 | 12.81 | -9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,208 | 16,951 | 225.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.1% | 21.2% | -27.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.4 | 8.9 | -60.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,420 | 2,489 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VG | -9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | -12.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 54.7% | 55.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.8% | 16.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 63.4% | 51.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VG Return | - | - | - | - | -71% | 89% | -46% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 58% | -2% | 24% | -2% | 33% | 259% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VG Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 60% | 57% | 62% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -27% | -25% | -20% | -29% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LNG, SRE, NEXT, XOM, CVX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Venture Global's stock fell -56.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 129.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Venture Global's stock fell -56.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 129.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Venture Global (VG)
Venture Global (VG) is a rapidly expanding company specializing in the development, construction, and operation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export facilities. The company employs an innovative and scalable "design one, build many" approach, which allows it to bring LNG to the global market faster and at a lower cost than traditional methods. Its core mission is to supply clean, affordable, and secure natural gas worldwide, aiming to displace more carbon-intensive energy sources and underpin global energy security and economic development.
The company's primary product is LNG, which is natural gas supercooled to a liquid for efficient transport by tankers to international markets that lack domestic supply. Venture Global is actively developing and constructing five major LNG liquefaction and export projects near the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana. These projects are designed to deliver a substantial total peak production capacity of 143.8 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), including both guaranteed and excess capacity. Even during commissioning phases, the company generates revenue from the sale of initial LNG cargoes.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Venture Global (VG):
- Venture Global is like the **Tesla for building large-scale LNG export terminals**, applying a disruptive, rapid, and cost-effective approach to constructing massive energy infrastructure.
- Venture Global is like the **AWS for industrial energy assets**, standardizing and rapidly deploying huge LNG export facilities with a "design one, build many" approach.
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- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Venture Global produces and exports supercooled natural gas, which is converted into liquid form for efficient global transportation.
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Based on the provided company description, Venture Global (VG) sells liquefied natural gas (LNG) primarily to other companies, likely international utilities, energy trading firms, or national energy companies. However, the background information does not explicitly name its major customers or provide their symbols.
The company description mentions "Sale and Purchase Agreements" (SPAs) and the sale of "commissioning cargos," indicating that it enters into contracts with other entities for the delivery of LNG to global markets.
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Michael Sabel
CEO, Executive Co-Chairman and Founder
Michael Sabel co-founded Venture Global LNG with Robert Pender in 2013. He has served as the CEO and Executive Co-Chairman since 2020, prior to which he was a Co-CEO. Before establishing Venture Global, Mr. Sabel worked for decades in the energy, technology, and financial services sectors, taking on senior leadership roles, engaging in new company formation, technology licensing, corporate business development, and capital market transactions. He was also an investment banker prior to co-founding Venture Global.
Jonathan Thayer
Chief Financial Officer
Jonathan (Jack) Thayer joined Venture Global LNG as Chief Financial Officer in June 2020. He brings over 15 years of finance leadership experience. Previously, Mr. Thayer held CFO positions at Exelon Corporation, a leading utility, power marketing, and generation holding company, and Constellation Energy Group, Inc., a large, integrated energy company. His career also includes roles in investment banking at SBC Warburg and Deutsche Bank Securities. Most recently before Venture Global, he served as Vice Chairman, Corporate Operations and CFO at Woodward, Inc..
Robert Pender
Executive Co-Chairman and Founder
Robert Pender co-founded Venture Global LNG with Michael Sabel in 2013. He currently serves as Executive Co-Chairman and was previously Co-CEO until 2020, when Sabel became the sole chief executive. Prior to founding the company, Mr. Pender practiced law for 28 years, specializing in alternative energy project financings. He worked on over $35 billion in energy, infrastructure, and power projects, and was a partner at Hogan Lovells, where he led the Project & International Finance Group for a decade.
Brian Cothran
Chief Operating Officer
Brian Cothran serves as the Chief Operating Officer for Venture Global LNG.
Fory Musser
Senior Vice President, Development
Fory Musser holds the position of Senior Vice President, Development at Venture Global LNG.
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Dependency on Subsidiaries: Venture Global, Inc. operates as a holding company with no direct operations, making it entirely dependent on its subsidiaries, including VGLNG, to generate revenues and funds. The ability of these subsidiaries to generate profits and make payments to the parent company is critical for Venture Global to meet its financial obligations and potentially pay dividends to stockholders.
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Reliance on Achieving Commercial Operation Date (COD) for Projects: While Venture Global is currently generating proceeds from the sale of commissioning cargos, particularly at the Calcasieu Project, the full realization of expected revenues from long-term contracts (post-COD SPAs) is contingent upon achieving Commercial Operation Date (COD) for each relevant project or phase. Delays in reaching COD across its five commissioning, constructing, and developing projects could impact projected financial performance.
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The accelerating global transition to and technological advancements in truly zero-carbon energy sources (such as green hydrogen, advanced renewables coupled with highly efficient storage, and advanced nuclear power) could diminish the long-term demand and strategic importance of liquefied natural gas as a bridge fuel, potentially bypassing or significantly shortening the role of LNG in the "cleaner energy future" that Venture Global aims to serve.
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The addressable market for Venture Global's main product, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), is global. The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market was projected to reach an estimated 165.5 billion USD in 2026. This market is expected to grow to 282.1 billion USD by 2035, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% during the forecast period.
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Venture Global (VG) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by the expansion and commercialization of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and an increasing volume of contracted sales. The company's innovative and scalable approach to LNG production underpins its rapid growth trajectory.
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth:
- Full Commercial Operation of Plaquemines LNG Project: The Plaquemines LNG project, which began producing LNG in December 2024 and shipped its inaugural commissioning cargo, is a key driver. Phase 1 of Plaquemines is anticipated to achieve Commercial Operation Date (COD) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with Phase 2 expected to be in-service by mid-2027 and full completion by the end of 2027. Once fully operational, Plaquemines is projected to have an export capacity of at least 20 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), transitioning current commissioning cargo revenues into stable, long-term contractual income.
- Commissioning and Initial Operations of CP2 LNG Project: Venture Global reached Final Investment Decision (FID) for Phase 1 of the CP2 LNG project in July 2025 and for Phase 2 in March 2026. The company expects to export its first LNG from CP2 in the second half of 2027. Upon completion, CP2 will contribute a peak production capacity of 29 MTPA, significantly boosting Venture Global's overall output and positioning it to become one of the largest LNG exporters globally.
- Contribution from Future Bolt-on Expansion Projects: Venture Global has aggressive plans for bolt-on expansions at its CP2 (10 MTPA capacity) and Plaquemines (6.4 MTPA capacity) sites, with FIDs targeted for 2027. First production from these expansions is anticipated in late 2028 (CP2) and 2029 (Plaquemines), further increasing the company's liquefaction capacity towards its goal of over 100 MTPA by 2030.
- Growth in LNG Sales Volumes and Expanding Long-Term Contract Portfolio: The company's strategy of securing long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs), often 20-year terms, provides strong revenue visibility. Venture Global has a contracted backlog of $137 billion, covering 77% of its capacity. For 2026, 91% of available cargos have already been contracted, and the company projects a near doubling of cargo capacity by 2029, indicating robust growth in sales volumes and associated revenue.
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Share Issuance
- Venture Global, Inc. launched an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in January 2025, offering 70 million shares of Class A common stock at an initial price of $25 per share, valuing the IPO at $1.75 billion.
Inbound Investments
- D. E. Shaw reported acquiring a new stake of over 5% in Venture Global (VG) as of a Schedule 13G filing on September 15, 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Venture Global expanded its total assets by $15.0 billion, from $46.5 billion as of June 30, 2025, to $61.5 billion as of June 30, 2026, largely attributable to ongoing construction and development of its natural gas liquefaction and export projects.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on commissioning, constructing, and developing five natural gas liquefaction and export projects near the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, aiming for a total expected peak production capacity of 143.8 mtpa. [BACKGROUND]
Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 117.8% | 146.4% | 323.3% | MPC 660% · VLO 514% · PBF 474% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | 7 | 52.1% | 74.1% | 210.7% | IMO 327% · SU 320% · XOM 236% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation ← | 18 | 35.4% | 116.6% | 169.7% | INSW 904% · LPG 817% · TRGP 472% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 62.7% | 6.1% | 55.9% | VAL 155% · NE 96% · RIG 56% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 51 | 36.4% | 12.6% | 54.0% | BTE 993% · PR 293% · CNQ 223% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 33 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 51.9% | FTI 785% · SEI 745% · TDW 537% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -21.9% | 1.6% | 26.9% | CNR 226% · CCJ 208% · LEU 114% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 131.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 57.8 |
| Rev LTM | 19,221 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,400 |
| FCF LTM | -1,226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,900 |
| CFO LTM | 6,484 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,670 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 44.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaquemines Project | 9,175 | 23 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calcasieu Project | 4,125 | 4,916 | 7,897 | 6,448 | 0 |
| Sales and Shipping | 2,518 | 329 | 0 | ||
| CP2 Project | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | -2,050 | -298 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 13,769 | 4,972 | 7,897 | 6,448 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaquemines Project | 4,228 | -217 | -187 | -269 | -158 |
| Calcasieu Project | 1,316 | 2,813 | 5,598 | 4,042 | -85 |
| Sales and Shipping | 248 | -20 | -7 | ||
| CP2 Project | -278 | -500 | -362 | -34 | -15 |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | -358 | -313 | -192 | ||
| Corporate and other | -184 | -79 | |||
| Total | 5,156 | 1,763 | 4,850 | 3,555 | -337 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plaquemines Project | 26,256 | 24,627 | 12,734 |
| CP2 Project | 10,857 | 3,643 | 1,359 |
| Calcasieu Project | 6,955 | 7,181 | 7,571 |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | 6,893 | 6,567 | |
| Sales and Shipping | 2,485 | 1,473 | |
| Corporate and other | 6,799 | ||
| Total | 53,446 | 43,491 | 28,463 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.81 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 31.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/24/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.79 | $12.46 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.1% | 2.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.3% | 74.0% |
| Downside Capture | -174.77 | -189.01 |
| Upside Capture | -204.29 | -122.81 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -23.1% | -22.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.75 | -1.57 | -2.25 | -2.42 | -0.83 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | 0.87 | -1.21 | 1.42 | -2.21 | -1.85 | 0.21 |
| Down Beta | -7.73 | -3.36 | -4.33 | -1.31 | 1.62 | -0.53 |
| Up Capture | -187% | -132% | -184% | -117% | -49% | -2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 31 | 58 | 122 | 202 |
| Down Capture | -0% | -146% | -540% | -621% | -340% | 22% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 68 | 128 | 215 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VG | 34.5% | 74.0% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 59.7% | 22.1% | 2.02 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | -21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.2% | 28.4% | -0.09 | -7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | 54.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 13.9% | 0.08 | -16.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 43.4% | -0.47 | 5.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VG | -11.6% | 82.9% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.0% | 25.5% | 0.79 | 51.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 16.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.9% | 0.72 | -1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 48.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 8.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.0% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 14.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VG | -6.0% | 82.9% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.1% | 29.6% | 0.41 | 51.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 16.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.4% | 0.59 | -1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 48.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 8.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.0% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 14.5% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -7.3% | -3.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/12/2026 | 14.2% | 21.9% | 14.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 17.4% | 28.8% | 74.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.3% | -0.1% | -24.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 15.7% |
| 5/13/2025 | 8.2% | 2.0% | 69.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | -36.1% | -27.8% | -36.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 8.2% | 12.3% | 15.7% |
| Median Negative | -21.7% | -3.6% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 28.8% | 74.5% |
| Max Negative | -36.1% | -27.8% | -36.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -7.3% | -3.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/12/2026 | 14.2% | 21.9% | 14.4% |
| 3/2/2026 | 17.4% | 28.8% | 74.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.3% | -0.1% | -24.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 15.7% |
| 5/13/2025 | 8.2% | 2.0% | 69.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | -36.1% | -27.8% | -36.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 8.2% | 12.3% | 15.7% |
| Median Negative | -21.7% | -3.6% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 28.8% | 74.5% |
| Max Negative | -36.1% | -27.8% | -36.8% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cargos from Calcasieu Pass | Reported | 149 | 151.5 | 154 | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 150.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Cargos from Plaquemines | Reported | 351 | 357.5 | 364 | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 358 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 8.70 Bil | 8.90 Bil | 9.10 Bil | 6.6% | Raised | Guidance: 8.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-controlling interest share of Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Calcasieu Project Cargo Exports | Reported | 147 | 150.5 | 154 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 150.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Plaquemines Project Cargo Exports | Reported | 347 | 358 | 369 | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 356 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 8.20 Bil | 8.35 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 51.8% | Raised | Guidance: 5.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | 1.25 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Calcasieu Project Cargo Exports | Reported | 145 | 150.5 | 156 | 1.7% | Higher New | Actual: 148 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Plaquemines Project Cargo Exports | Reported | 341 | 356 | 371 | 50.8% | Higher New | Actual: 236 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 5.20 Bil | 5.50 Bil | 5.80 Bil | -14.4% | Lower New | Actual: 6.42 Bil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total Cargos | Reported | 382 | 384 | 386 | ||||
| 2025 Calcasieu Project Cargos | Reported | 148 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 146.5 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Plaquemines Project Cargos | Reported | 234 | 236 | 238 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 233.5 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 6.35 Bil | 6.42 Bil | 6.50 Bil | -2.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-controlling interest share of Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 105.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 125.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 12.70 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 2 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 12.68 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 3 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 12.43 | 389,679 | 4,842,463 | 65,862 | Form |
| 4 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 13.37 | 394,978 | Form | ||
| 5 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9212026 | 14.23 | 111,111 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 12.70 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 2 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202026 | 12.68 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 3 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 12.43 | 389,679 | 4,842,463 | 65,862 | Form |
| 4 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10152026 | 13.37 | 394,978 | Form | ||
| 5 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9212026 | 14.23 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 6 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9212026 | 14.40 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 7 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 14.40 | 394,979 | Form | ||
| 8 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 14.82 | 394,979 | Form | ||
| 9 | Cothran, Brian | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 9142026 | 16.15 | 152,660 | Form | ||
| 10 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 15.21 | 1,885,804 | Form | ||
| 11 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 15.05 | 464,196 | Form | ||
| 12 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 14.26 | 259,413 | Form | ||
| 13 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 14.01 | 12,600 | Form | ||
| 14 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 13.86 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 15 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 14.17 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 16 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 14.02 | 22,013 | Form | ||
| 17 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 14.02 | 447,534 | Form | ||
| 18 | Blake, Sarah | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 14.02 | 1,000,000 | Form | ||
| 19 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 13.48 | 555,555 | Form | ||
| 20 | Granat, Sari Beth | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 13.49 | 200,000 | Form | |||
| 21 | Staton, Jimmy D | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 13.35 | 66,000 | 881,034 | 14,456,967 | Form | |
| 22 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 14.08 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 23 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 14.21 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 24 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 12.91 | 555,555 | Form | ||
| 25 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 12.93 | 555,556 | Form | ||
| 26 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 10.92 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 27 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 11.05 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 28 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 11.27 | 555,555 | Form | ||
| 29 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 11.90 | 555,556 | Form | ||
| 30 | Sabel, Michael | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 13.04 | 1,226 | 15,981 | 15,473,992 | Form |
| 31 | Earl, Thomas | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 12.44 | 1,000,000 | Form | ||
| 32 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 12.61 | 233,735 | Form | ||
| 33 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 13.09 | 266,265 | Form | ||
| 34 | Cothran, Brian | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 14.33 | 31,910 | Form | ||
| 35 | Cothran, Brian | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 14.55 | 120,623 | Form | ||
| 36 | Cothran, Brian | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 14.81 | 473,533 | Form | ||
| 37 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 14.59 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 38 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 14.27 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 39 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 14.04 | 555,555 | Form | ||
| 40 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 13.07 | 555,556 | Form | ||
| 41 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 13.09 | 2,000,000 | Form | ||
| 42 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 11.89 | 111,111 | Form | ||
| 43 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 11.50 | 111,112 | Form | ||
| 44 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 12.64 | 555,556 | Form | ||
| 45 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 12.38 | 555,556 | Form | ||
| 46 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 15.55 | 3,206,138 | Form | ||
| 47 | Blake, Sarah | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 16.00 | 200,000 | Form | ||
| 48 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 16.08 | 2,611,111 | Form | ||
| 49 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 15.02 | 1,793,862 | Form | ||
| 50 | Thayer, Jonathan W | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 14.04 | 611,112 | Form | ||
| 51 | Blake, Sarah | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 13.01 | 119,300 | Form | ||
| 52 | Earl, Thomas | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 11.83 | 1,000,000 | Form | ||
| 53 | Blake, Sarah | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 13.00 | 30,700 | Form | ||
| 54 | Blake, Sarah | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 11.85 | 300,000 | Form | ||
| 55 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 10.90 | 1,000,000 | Form | ||
| 56 | Earl, Thomas | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 6.89 | 1,000,000 | Form | ||
| 57 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 7.80 | 42,901 | Form | ||
| 58 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 7.80 | 188,337 | Form | ||
| 59 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 8.01 | 768,762 | Form | ||
| 60 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 8.06 | 776,298 | Form | ||
| 61 | Musser, Fory | Senior VP, Development | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 8.03 | 223,702 | Form | ||
| 62 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 8.06 | 261,144 | Form | ||
| 63 | Larson, Keith D | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 8.16 | 221,555 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $41.5 Mil | 5.8% | 15 | New | 13F |
| King Street Capital Management, L.P. | $14.0 Mil | 4.3% | 11 | New | 13F |
| RR Advisors, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 3.7% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Mercuria Capital Strategies, LLC | $9.1 Mil | 3.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC | $7.7 Mil | 3.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Forest Avenue Capital Management LP | $32.1 Mil | 2.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $20.5 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $17.0 Mil | 0.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $23.1 Mil | 0.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $41.5 Mil | 5.8% | 15 | New | 13F |
| Forest Avenue Capital Management LP | $32.1 Mil | 2.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $23.1 Mil | 0.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $20.5 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $17.0 Mil | 0.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| King Street Capital Management, L.P. | $14.0 Mil | 4.3% | 11 | New | 13F |
| RR Advisors, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 3.7% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Mercuria Capital Strategies, LLC | $9.1 Mil | 3.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC | $7.7 Mil | 3.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $41.5 Mil | 5.8% | 15 | New | 13F |
| Forest Avenue Capital Management LP | $32.1 Mil | 2.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $23.1 Mil | 0.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $20.5 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $17.0 Mil | 0.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| King Street Capital Management, L.P. | $14.0 Mil | 4.3% | 11 | New | 13F |
| RR Advisors, LLC | $13.3 Mil | 3.7% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Mercuria Capital Strategies, LLC | $9.1 Mil | 3.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Corigliano Investment Advisers, LLC | $7.7 Mil | 3.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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