NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $5.9 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $5.9Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 428% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 114x | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 428% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 114x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NEXT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -48.8% movement in NextDecade (NEXT) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets: In September 2025, NextDecade's stock received significant downgrades from multiple financial analysts. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" on September 12, 2025, simultaneously lowering its price target from $15 to $10. Shortly after, on September 15, 2025, TD Cowen also downgraded NextDecade from "Strong Buy" to "Hold" and adjusted its price target from $11 to $8. These revisions likely signaled a more cautious outlook from institutional investors, contributing to a negative re-evaluation of the stock.
2. Concerns Over Financial Health and High Leverage: As of November 2025, NextDecade reported negative earnings and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34. While the company made progress on project financing, these underlying financial metrics, including ongoing losses and substantial debt, could have raised investor concerns about the company's long-term financial stability and capacity for future growth without further dilution or increased borrowing.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEXT Return | -66% | 36% | 73% | -3% | 62% | -25% | -5% |
| Peers Return | -21% | -22% | 48% | 13% | 36% | -4% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEXT Win Rate | 17% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 25% | 38% | 33% | 35% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEXT Max Drawdown | -81% | -19% | -26% | -20% | -9% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -29% | -12% | -15% | -10% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FTI, HLX, FTK, LSE, STAK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 424.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 228.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2342 days | 120 days |
Compare to FTI, HLX, FTK, LSE, STAK
In The Past
NextDecade's stock fell -62.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -62.2% loss requires a 164.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.3% | 24.3% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NextDecade
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 52 |
| FCF LTM | 40 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 50 |
| CFO LTM | 53 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 64 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.5 |
| P/E | 20.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 4.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.4% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2017 | -0.6% | -12.3% | 2.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -12.3% | |
| Max Positive | 2.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -0.6% | -12.3% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |