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NextDecade (NEXT)

Market Price (3/15/2026): $5.77 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

NextDecade (NEXT)

Market Price (3/15/2026): $5.77
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. 		Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%		 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -226 Mil
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 557%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
2 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -226 Mil
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 557%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

NextDecade (NEXT) stock has lost about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. NextDecade reported a significant earnings per share miss of 29.87% in its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 20, 2025.

2. The company's stock received a consensus "Hold" rating from Wall Street analysts, with an average price target of $8.00. Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.6% change in NEXT stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)113020253142026Change
Stock Price ($)6.115.77-5.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)000.0%
P/S Multiple∞∞0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)263265-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEXT-5.6% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%27.2%
Sector (XLE)27.6%44.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -46.2% change in NEXT stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120253142026Change
Stock Price ($)10.725.77-46.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)000.0%
P/S Multiple∞∞0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)261265-1.5%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEXT-46.2% 
Market (SPY)3.0%15.7%
Sector (XLE)28.8%28.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -29.8% change in NEXT stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820253142026Change
Stock Price ($)8.225.77-29.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)000.0%
P/S Multiple∞∞0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)260265-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEXT-29.8% 
Market (SPY)12.4%29.5%
Sector (XLE)29.9%35.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -18.3% change in NEXT stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233142026Change
Stock Price ($)7.065.77-18.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)000.0%
P/S Multiple∞∞0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)129265-51.1%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NEXT-18.3% 
Market (SPY)73.4%23.8%
Sector (XLE)51.3%30.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NEXT Return36%73%-3%62%-32%10%177%
Peers Return34%30%6%38%-18%35%181%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NEXT Win Rate42%50%50%83%42%100% 
Peers Win Rate64%64%64%64%50%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NEXT Max Drawdown-19%-26%-20%-9%-34%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-4%-0%-10%-8%-30%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LNG, SRE, KMI, VG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNEXTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-62.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-80.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven424.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven228.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,342 days120 days

Compare to LNG, SRE, KMI, VG

In The Past

NextDecade's stock fell -62.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -62.2% loss requires a 164.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NextDecade (NEXT)

NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas; and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities of Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville, southern Texas. It also focuses on a carbon capture and storage project (CCS project) at the terminal, as well as on other CCS projects with third-party industrial source facilities. The company was founded in 2010 is based in Houston, Texas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe NextDecade:

  • A developing Cheniere Energy, focused on building a major terminal to export liquefied natural gas (LNG).

  • Similar to an early-stage ExxonMobil, but focused on building massive natural gas export and carbon capture facilities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Production and Sales: NextDecade develops facilities to liquefy natural gas for export and sale to global markets.
  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Services: The company develops and implements projects for capturing CO2 emissions and storing them, both at its own facilities and for third-party industrial sources.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

NextDecade (NEXT) primarily sells liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other companies under long-term agreements. Its major customers include:

  • TotalEnergies SE (Symbol: TTE)
  • Shell plc (Symbol: SHEL)
  • ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. (Symbol: 2688.HK)
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation (Symbol: XOM)
  • Engie SA (Symbol: ENGI.PA)

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Bechtel Energy Inc.
  • Baker Hughes Company (BKR)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Rapid advancements and increasing adoption of green hydrogen and other clean energy carriers (e.g., ammonia) for international energy trade. This could significantly reduce the long-term global demand for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure, potentially rendering NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG terminal less competitive or commercially viable over its lifespan as cleaner alternatives become dominant.

2. Accelerated development and widespread adoption of alternative, deeply decarbonizing technologies and processes in heavy industries. If industrial sectors find more cost-effective or complete solutions for emission reduction (such as direct electrification with renewables, utilization of green hydrogen in industrial processes, or novel carbon-free manufacturing methods) faster than anticipated, it could diminish the long-term market demand for third-party carbon capture and storage (CCS) services that NextDecade aims to provide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to NEXT.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
TPL_12262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12262025TPLTexas Pacific LandDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		82.3%82.3%-2.1%
NOV_12122025_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212122025NOVNOVInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		23.6%23.6%-6.5%
RIG_12122025_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212122025RIGTransoceanInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		56.9%56.9%-7.0%
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		31.6%31.6%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		41.7%41.7%0.0%
NEXT_9302025_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K09302025NEXTNextDecadeInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		-20.6%-20.6%-29.3%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Research & Analysis

Invest in Strategies

Wealth Management

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NEXTLNGSREKMIVGMedian
NameNextDeca.Cheniere.Sempra Kinder M.Venture . 
Mkt Price5.77252.2795.1133.3913.1033.39
Mkt Cap1.554.162.174.232.154.1
Rev LTM019,97613,70216,93713,76913,769
Op Inc LTM-2269,1123,0804,7155,1564,715
FCF LTM-5,0162,461-6,0472,891-6,799-5,016
FCF 3Y Avg-3,1643,971-3,8453,357-97
CFO LTM-1695,5394,5655,9176,5665,539
CFO 3Y Avg-1136,4505,2306,014-5,622

Growth & Margins

NEXTLNGSREKMIVGMedian
NameNextDeca.Cheniere.Sempra Kinder M.Venture . 
Rev Chg LTM-27.2%3.9%12.2%176.9%19.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--11.6%-0.5%-3.2%--3.2%
Rev Chg Q-22.9%-0.2%13.1%191.7%18.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.3%-0.1%3.2%26.9%4.3%
Op Mgn LTM-45.6%22.5%27.8%37.4%32.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-53.5%22.4%28.1%-28.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-8.5%-0.0%0.7%0.3%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-27.7%33.3%34.9%47.7%34.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-34.5%35.9%38.2%-35.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-12.3%-44.1%17.1%-49.4%-15.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-21.1%-27.4%21.4%-21.1%

Valuation

NEXTLNGSREKMIVGMedian
NameNextDeca.Cheniere.Sempra Kinder M.Venture . 
Mkt Cap1.554.162.174.232.154.1
P/S-2.74.54.42.33.5
P/EBIT-4.35.923.015.76.76.7
P/E-5.010.133.824.312.712.7
P/CFO-9.09.813.612.54.99.8
Total Yield-20.1%10.7%5.5%7.6%9.3%7.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%2.6%3.5%1.4%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-213.3%9.3%-7.0%6.8%--0.1%
D/E5.70.50.60.41.10.6
Net D/E5.60.50.60.41.00.6

Returns

NEXTLNGSREKMIVGMedian
NameNextDeca.Cheniere.Sempra Kinder M.Venture . 
1M Rtn13.1%15.9%2.5%5.4%41.2%13.1%
3M Rtn5.7%33.6%7.5%26.1%113.0%26.1%
6M Rtn-15.6%7.4%15.0%23.6%-3.3%7.4%
12M Rtn-20.1%16.5%39.9%28.5%22.9%22.9%
3Y Rtn28.8%80.4%43.1%136.2%-45.0%43.1%
1M Excs Rtn8.8%17.4%6.7%8.6%36.3%8.8%
3M Excs Rtn-0.3%32.7%8.4%28.4%117.4%28.4%
6M Excs Rtn-27.5%4.1%12.7%20.8%-7.2%4.1%
12M Excs Rtn-39.5%-2.6%21.4%10.3%7.4%7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.2%-2.2%-28.8%56.4%-114.8%-28.8%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment6,4043,324312222202
Total6,4043,324312222202


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$5.77 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.5 
First Trading Date06/04/2015 
Distance from 52W High-51.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$5.30$7.26
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA8.8%-20.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility55.5%66.6%
Downside Capture39.7947.27
Upside Capture82.8615.02
Correlation (SPY)33.4%28.2%
NEXT Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.442.011.680.891.101.11
Up Beta4.443.352.841.180.830.79
Down Beta4.805.504.272.722.402.19
Up Capture148%-6%-24%-74%14%28%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days10192654117364
Down Capture83%-3%57%92%71%96%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days10193065124363

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEXT
NEXT-20.2%66.6%-0.07-
Sector ETF (XLE)34.9%24.9%1.1535.3%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8128.6%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.052.3%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.8922.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1921.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.3%44.2%-0.2516.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEXT
NEXT25.8%85.3%0.63-
Sector ETF (XLE)21.1%26.2%0.7334.0%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6123.7%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.145.7%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4724.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1621.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.3%56.7%0.3310.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NEXT
NEXT-5.4%86.2%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLE)10.9%29.5%0.4130.2%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7025.8%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.773.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4017.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2326.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.8%1.077.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 21520264.6%
Average Daily Volume2.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity264.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares7.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive000
# Negative000
Median Positive   
Median Negative   
Max Positive   
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/14/202410-Q
03/31/202405/09/202410-Q
12/31/202303/11/202410-K
09/30/202311/13/202310-Q
06/30/202308/14/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/10/202310-K
09/30/202211/10/202210-Q
06/30/202208/11/202210-Q
03/31/202205/12/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd DirectBuy121520255.83851,9714,968,098149,399,201Form
2Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd DirectBuy121520255.54800,0004,431,280146,344,252Form
3Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd DirectBuy121020256.2639,467246,988149,412,888Form
4Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd DirectBuy121020256.36293,1311,864,225153,702,826Form
5Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd DirectBuy121020256.05600,0003,631,200149,897,455Form

Industry Resources

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