Tearsheet

NextDecade (NEXT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.105 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

NextDecade (NEXT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.105
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 367%
3   Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 133x
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61%
2 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 367%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 133x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NEXT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why NextDecade (NEXT) stock moved by -42.9% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. NextDecade was flagged as significantly overvalued by InvestingPro models in early August 2025, when the stock was trading around $11.10 to $12.00, near its 52-week high of $12.12. This analysis proved prescient as the stock subsequently declined by approximately 43%, reaching around $6.18 by mid-October.

2. Analysts expressed concerns about the company's long-term profitability assumptions, leading to downgrades and lower price targets. For instance, a TD Cowen analyst estimated NextDecade's worth to be significantly lower than what its financials implied, based on more conservative margin assumptions. Morgan Stanley also downgraded the stock, citing a lower cash flow outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NEXT Return-66%36%73%-3%62%-25%-5%
Peers Return-21%-22%48%13%36%16%62%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NEXT Win Rate17%42%50%50%83%40% 
Peers Win Rate30%25%38%33%28%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NEXT Max Drawdown-81%-19%-26%-20%-9%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-29%-12%-15%-10%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FTI, HLX, FTK, HMH, WBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNEXTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-62.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-80.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven424.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven228.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2342 days120 days

Compare to FTI, HLX, FTK, HMH, WBI


In The Past

NextDecade's stock fell -62.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -62.2% loss requires a 164.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NextDecade (NEXT)

Better Bets than NextDecade (NEXT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NEXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NextDecade

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NEXTFTIHLXFTKHMHWBIMedian
NameNextDeca.TechnipF.Helix En.Flotek I.HMH WaterBri. 
Mkt Price6.1246.677.3015.17-22.4415.17
Mkt Cap1.619.11.10.5--1.3
Rev LTM09,7831,312214844-844
Op Inc LTM-2241,2928420108-84
FCF LTM-3,7121,54178218-18
FCF 3Y Avg-2,508913110-10--50
CFO LTM-1581,890102535-35
CFO 3Y Avg-1101,177137-9--64

Growth & Margins

NEXTFTIHLXFTKHMHWBIMedian
NameNextDeca.TechnipF.Helix En.Flotek I.HMH WaterBri. 
Rev Chg LTM-11.2%-2.0%21.7%3.9%-7.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-14.5%23.5%70.4%--23.5%
Rev Chg Q-12.7%10.1%26.4%-1.9%-11.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.2%2.7%6.0%-0.5%-2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-13.2%6.4%9.4%12.8%-11.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-9.7%7.6%-0.9%--7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%0.1%1.7%-0.8%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-19.3%7.7%2.5%4.1%-5.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-13.0%10.5%-4.7%--10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-15.8%6.0%1.1%2.1%-4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-10.0%8.4%-5.5%--8.4%

Valuation

NEXTFTIHLXFTKHMHWBIMedian
NameNextDeca.TechnipF.Helix En.Flotek I.HMH WaterBri. 
Mkt Cap1.619.11.10.5--1.3
P/S-1.70.72.3--1.7
P/EBIT133.412.510.330.7--21.6
P/E-9.217.122.635.5--19.8
P/CFO-11.38.59.593.6--9.0
Total Yield-10.9%6.4%4.4%2.8%--3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-175.5%7.0%7.7%-9.5%---1.2%
D/E3.80.10.60.1--0.4
Net D/E3.70.00.30.1--0.2

Returns

NEXTFTIHLXFTKHMHWBIMedian
NameNextDeca.TechnipF.Helix En.Flotek I.HMH WaterBri. 
1M Rtn4.3%11.0%5.5%-12.6%--8.9%4.3%
3M Rtn-41.4%22.2%12.7%31.9%--17.4%
6M Rtn-27.1%48.1%11.6%3.5%--7.6%
12M Rtn-14.0%49.0%-31.9%72.6%--17.5%
3Y Rtn17.7%268.9%11.6%94.5%--56.1%
1M Excs Rtn4.3%11.0%5.5%-12.5%--8.8%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-46.8%12.5%5.3%21.3%--8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-41.9%33.4%-3.1%-11.2%---7.1%
12M Excs Rtn-29.0%36.1%-45.3%64.9%--3.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-60.7%220.8%-53.5%49.0%---2.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment3,324312222202221
Total3,324312222202221


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,535,410
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.1%
Average Daily Volume2,806,330
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.54
Basic Shares Quantity262,581,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023311202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021