NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $7.49 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $7.49Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 472% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% Key risksNEXT key risks include [1] its dependency on the timely and on-budget completion of its Rio Grande LNG and Carbon Capture projects and [2] its need to secure substantial additional financing to execute its business plan as a pre-revenue development company. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 472% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% |
| Key risksNEXT key risks include [1] its dependency on the timely and on-budget completion of its Rio Grande LNG and Carbon Capture projects and [2] its need to secure substantial additional financing to execute its business plan as a pre-revenue development company. |
Qualitative Assessment
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NextDecade (NEXT) stock has gained about 40% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Construction Progress at Rio Grande LNG Facility: The Rio Grande LNG export facility, NextDecade's flagship project, demonstrated substantial advancement during the period. As of March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026), Trains 1 and 2 and common facilities reached 67.8% overall completion, with Train 3 at 44.2% completion. The company projects first gas into the facility in the second half of 2026 and initial LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027, indicating continued progress towards operationalization.
2. Successful Project Financing and Debt Management: NextDecade demonstrated strong financial execution by securing and managing substantial funding for its capital-intensive projects. The company successfully refinanced $1.85 billion of bank debt into capital markets securities in fiscal Q1 2026. Additionally, a unit of NextDecade secured a $1 billion term loan in June 2026 to support the first three trains of the Rio Grande LNG project. These financing activities provide crucial capital for ongoing construction and reflect investor confidence in the project's viability.
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NextDecade (NEXT) stock has gained about 40% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Construction Progress at Rio Grande LNG Facility: The Rio Grande LNG export facility, NextDecade's flagship project, demonstrated substantial advancement during the period. As of March 2026 (fiscal Q1 2026), Trains 1 and 2 and common facilities reached 67.8% overall completion, with Train 3 at 44.2% completion. The company projects first gas into the facility in the second half of 2026 and initial LNG production from Train 1 in the first half of 2027, indicating continued progress towards operationalization.
2. Successful Project Financing and Debt Management: NextDecade demonstrated strong financial execution by securing and managing substantial funding for its capital-intensive projects. The company successfully refinanced $1.85 billion of bank debt into capital markets securities in fiscal Q1 2026. Additionally, a unit of NextDecade secured a $1 billion term loan in June 2026 to support the first three trains of the Rio Grande LNG project. These financing activities provide crucial capital for ongoing construction and reflect investor confidence in the project's viability.
3. Positive Expansion Outlook for Additional Liquefaction Trains: The company signaled robust future growth by actively pursuing the development of additional liquefaction trains at the Rio Grande LNG Facility. NextDecade announced plans to advance the development of Trains 6 through 8 throughout 2026, with a full filing for Train 6 with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) expected before the end of fiscal Q2 2026. This ongoing expansion strategy, building on the Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for Trains 4 and 5 in late 2025, underlines the long-term potential of the facility, which has capacity for up to 10 trains.
4. Better-than-Expected Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Results: NextDecade reported a narrower-than-anticipated loss in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, which were released in early May 2026. The company posted a loss per share of -$0.51, exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.6722 by 24.13%. Although a pre-revenue company, this beat indicated effective cost management and operational discipline, providing a positive signal to investors.
5. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Price Target Upgrades: Investor sentiment was positively influenced by a generally favorable outlook from financial analysts. As of May 13, 2026, analysts polled by S&P Global provided a "Buy" consensus rating for NextDecade stock with an average price target of $9.40, representing a potential upside of 30.19% from the stock's closing price of $7.16 on June 24, 2026. Notably, Citigroup initiated a "Buy" rating on the stock with an $11 price target on May 13, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.4% change in NEXT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.39 | 7.46 | 38.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 263 | 265 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEXT | 38.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | -44.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.1% | 55.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.1% change in NEXT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.11 | 7.46 | 22.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 263 | 265 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEXT | 22.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | -22.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.8% | 51.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.9% change in NEXT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.28 | 7.46 | -9.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 260 | 265 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEXT | -9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | -10.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 36.3% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.4% change in NEXT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.55 | 7.46 | 34.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 265 | -44.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NEXT | 34.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 15.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 55.0% | 31.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEXT Return | 36% | 73% | -3% | 62% | -32% | 41% | 256% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 30% | 6% | 38% | -18% | 28% | 167% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEXT Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 42% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 50% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEXT Max Drawdown | -60% | -52% | -51% | -47% | -57% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -19% | -15% | -11% | -23% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LNG, SRE, KMI, VG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 300.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 140 days |
In The Past
NextDecade's stock fell -32.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NEXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 300.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 186 days | 140 days |
In The Past
NextDecade's stock fell -32.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About NextDecade (NEXT)
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is an energy infrastructure development company primarily focused on producing and selling Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The company's main project is the Rio Grande LNG terminal facility in Brownsville, Southern Texas, where it will cool natural gas into a liquid for easier shipment. Its primary customers are global energy markets, including utility companies, energy traders, and industrial users in countries seeking a reliable supply of natural gas for power generation, heating, and other applications.
In addition to its core LNG business, NextDecade is also developing solutions for carbon capture and storage (CCS). This involves capturing CO2 emissions and storing them permanently underground to reduce environmental impact. The company is implementing a CCS project at its own Rio Grande LNG terminal and plans to offer these services to third-party industrial facilities that need to decarbonize their operations, serving a growing market for emissions reduction technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe NextDecade:
-
A developing Cheniere Energy, focused on building a major terminal to export liquefied natural gas (LNG).
-
Similar to an early-stage ExxonMobil, but focused on building massive natural gas export and carbon capture facilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Production and Sales: NextDecade develops facilities to liquefy natural gas for export and sale to global markets.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Services: The company develops and implements projects for capturing CO2 emissions and storing them, both at its own facilities and for third-party industrial sources.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NextDecade (NEXT) primarily sells liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other companies under long-term agreements. Its major customers include:
- TotalEnergies SE (Symbol: TTE)
- Shell plc (Symbol: SHEL)
- ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. (Symbol: 2688.HK)
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (Symbol: XOM)
- Engie SA (Symbol: ENGI.PA)
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- Bechtel Energy Inc.
- Baker Hughes Company (BKR)
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Matt Schatzman, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Matt Schatzman has served as Chief Executive Officer of NextDecade Corporation since 2018, and he was elected Chairman of the Board of Directors in 2019. He joined the company as President and a member of the Board of Directors in 2017. With over three decades of experience in the energy industry, Mr. Schatzman previously served as Executive Vice President Global Energy Marketing and Shipping and was a member of the Group Executive Committee at BG Group. In this role, he was responsible for the company's global marketing, trading, and shipping activities for LNG, crude oil, and natural gas, and played a pivotal role in transforming BG Group's LNG business into a global leader. His career also includes senior executive roles at Dynegy and an early start at Transco Pipeline, a subsidiary of Williams. Before joining NextDecade, he was President of MKS Energy LLC, where he provided energy advisory and consultation services. Under his leadership, NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 secured significant financial commitments from Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), GIC, and Mubadala Investment Company, indicating involvement with private equity-backed financing.
Michael Mott, Senior Vice President, Enterprise Transformation & Interim Chief Financial Officer
Michael Mott was appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer of NextDecade effective October 20, 2025. He also serves as Senior Vice President of Enterprise Transformation, a role he was appointed to in July 2024. Prior to this, he was responsible for Carbon Solutions and corporate strategy at NextDecade. Mr. Mott brings extensive experience from previous roles, including serving as the Chief Financial Officer of LNG Limited from October 2014 to May 2020. He also held various senior strategy, finance, and operations positions at BG Group, where he led business execution in BG's global LNG business. His background also includes roles at Dynegy, culminating as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer & Controller, and 13 years at Price Waterhouse.
Tarik Skeik, Chief Operating Officer
Tarik Skeik was appointed Chief Operating Officer of NextDecade effective July 24, 2024. He has over 20 years of experience in delivering global complex mega projects within the LNG, oil, and petrochemical sectors across North America, the Middle East, and Asia. Before joining NextDecade, Mr. Skeik spent 13 years as a global project executive at ExxonMobil, leading the completion and start-up of six greenfield assets with investments exceeding $50 billion. His notable projects include the Huizhou Chemicals Complex in China, Gulf Coast Growth Ventures in the U.S., Banyu Urip in Indonesia, Kearl Expansion in Canada, and QatarGas 2 in Qatar. He also held a Project Lead role at Qatargas.
James MacTaggart, Chief Marketing Officer
James MacTaggart joined NextDecade effective April 23, 2018, initially as Senior Vice President, LNG Marketing – Asia, and currently serves as Chief Marketing Officer. He has over 20 years of experience in the energy industry, including various marketing and trading positions at Shell. Prior to NextDecade, he was the General Manager of Shell's New Gas and LNG Markets business across Asia, India, and the Middle East. During his tenure at Shell, Mr. MacTaggart was instrumental in originating, negotiating, and executing numerous deals in the upstream, gas and power, and LNG trading sectors, including the establishment of Shell Energy India and negotiating LNG sales contracts for the Sakhalin 2 LNG project. He holds an MBA from Bayes Business School and a BA Honours in Classical and Modern Chinese from SOAS University of London.
Vera De Brito de Gyarfas, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Vera De Brito de Gyarfas joined NextDecade as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary in July 2021, overseeing all legal and contractual matters for the company. She is a highly experienced corporate attorney with over 30 years in energy and natural resources, LNG, general corporate law, contract negotiations, host government negotiations, and mergers and acquisitions. Before her role at NextDecade, Ms. De Gyarfas was a partner in the Houston office of Mayer Brown, where she was a member of the Oil & Gas industry group. Her previous experience also includes eight years as a partner at King & Spalding in the global transactions practice group, and a partnership at Travieso, Evans, Arria, Rengel & Paz, a prominent Venezuelan law firm. Ms. De Gyarfas holds a JD from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (Venezuela) and a Master of Laws from the University of Houston. She is recognized for her expertise in the energy sector, including being a 2016 Women in Energy Honoree by Texas Lawyer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Project Execution and Completion Risks for the Rio Grande LNG Facility: NextDecade's business success is heavily dependent on the timely and on-budget completion of its flagship Rio Grande LNG Facility, which is currently in the development and construction phase. There is no guarantee of project completion, on-time delivery, or achieving operational profitability. Risks include potential construction delays, cost overruns, and unforeseen operational hazards, which could significantly impact the company's financial projections and investor confidence. The project has already faced delays, with an estimated completion pushed from 2026 to 2029.
- Regulatory, Permitting, and Litigation Risks: The Rio Grande LNG Facility remains subject to ongoing governmental approvals, which can involve further conditions, reviews, or even revocation. The company has experienced significant regulatory uncertainty, notably a U.S. Court of Appeals decision that remanded the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) approval for the first five liquefaction trains, putting the project's permits in jeopardy. Changes in environmental regulations, especially concerning carbon emissions and climate policy, could also lead to increased costs, project delays, or limitations on market opportunities. Furthermore, community opposition and related lawsuits have contributed to regulatory hurdles and delays.
- Substantial Indebtedness and Financing Risks: To finance the construction of the Rio Grande LNG Facility, NextDecade and its subsidiaries have incurred a significant amount of debt. This high debt load presents a risk that future cash flows may be insufficient to cover principal and interest payments. The company also faces restrictive covenants in its debt agreements, which could limit its financial flexibility, and any breaches could trigger defaults. As NextDecade currently generates no meaningful revenue and has substantial operating losses, it is highly reliant on securing additional debt and equity financing for future project phases and may not be able to do so on favorable terms or at all.
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1. Rapid advancements and increasing adoption of green hydrogen and other clean energy carriers (e.g., ammonia) for international energy trade. This could significantly reduce the long-term global demand for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure, potentially rendering NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG terminal less competitive or commercially viable over its lifespan as cleaner alternatives become dominant.
2. Accelerated development and widespread adoption of alternative, deeply decarbonizing technologies and processes in heavy industries. If industrial sectors find more cost-effective or complete solutions for emission reduction (such as direct electrification with renewables, utilization of green hydrogen in industrial processes, or novel carbon-free manufacturing methods) faster than anticipated, it could diminish the long-term market demand for third-party carbon capture and storage (CCS) services that NextDecade aims to provide.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Global Market: The global LNG market size was valued at approximately USD 167.06 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 227.28 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate places the global market at USD 130.3 billion in 2024, expected to grow to USD 269.28 billion by 2033. Globally, LNG production capacity stood at 511 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA) in 2025 and is estimated to reach 822.68 MTPA by 2031.
- U.S. Market: The United States LNG infrastructure market size was valued at USD 40.32 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 73.85 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.24% from 2023 to 2033. The U.S. is the largest supplier of LNG, exporting more than 15 billion cubic feet per day.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
- Global Market: The global carbon capture and storage market size was approximately USD 8.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 51.5 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 16% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates show the global market at USD 7.31 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 50.70 billion by 2034.
- U.S. Market: The U.S. carbon capture and storage market was valued at over USD 3.16 billion in 2024 and is predicted to be worth around USD 13.83 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 22.15% from 2025 to 2034. North America held the largest market share of the global CCS market in 2024, accounting for over 37% of total sales.
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- Commencement of Operations for Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 (Trains 1-3): NextDecade's primary revenue driver in the near term will be the initiation of commercial operations for the first phase of its Rio Grande LNG facility. This phase, comprising Trains 1, 2, and 3, is currently under construction and is expected to achieve its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the first half of 2027. The project's overall completion percentage for Trains 1 and 2, along with common facilities, was 42.8% as of Q1 2025, with Train 3 at 17.8% completion, both tracking on schedule.
- Progression of Rio Grande LNG Trains 4 & 5 Towards Operation: The company has reached Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for Train 4 and Train 5 of the Rio Grande LNG facility. Train 4 is expected to add approximately 6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefaction capacity and has a guaranteed substantial completion date in the second half of 2030. Train 5, also with an expected capacity of 6 MTPA, is anticipated to reach substantial completion in the first half of 2031. The ongoing construction and financing efforts for these trains within the next 2-3 years are crucial steps toward realizing these significant future revenue streams.
- Securing New Long-Term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs): NextDecade's business model relies on securing long-term, take-or-pay SPAs, which provide predictable, toll-like revenue streams largely insulated from commodity price volatility. The company has already secured such agreements covering approximately 85% of Trains 1-5 production with investment-grade counterparties. Continuing to sign new SPAs, particularly as additional trains become closer to operation, will be essential for de-risking future cash flows and driving revenue growth.
- Development and Permitting of Rio Grande LNG Trains 6-8: Beyond the initial five trains, NextDecade is actively pursuing the development and permitting of Trains 6, 7, and 8. These additional trains are cumulatively expected to increase the company's total liquefaction capacity by approximately 18 MTPA once constructed and operational. NextDecade expects to pre-file an application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for Train 6 in 2025 and a full application in 2026, laying the groundwork for substantial future capacity expansion and subsequent revenue generation.
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Share Issuance
- NextDecade's basic shares outstanding increased significantly from approximately 475 million at the end of 2021 to over 1 billion by September 2025.
- NextDecade financed its equity commitments for Rio Grande LNG Train 4 (approximately $1.13 billion) and Train 5 (approximately $1.29 billion) primarily through term loans and cash on hand, with no material impact to NextDecade common shares outstanding at the time of these specific financial closes.
Inbound Investments
- In July 2023, Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 secured $18.4 billion in project financing, including approximately $5.9 billion in financial commitments from Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), GIC, Mubadala Investment Company, and TotalEnergies.
- In September 2025, NextDecade closed approximately $6.7 billion in committed financing for Train 4, which included $1.70 billion in equity commitments from partners such as GIP, GIC, Mubadala Investment Company, and TotalEnergies, alongside a $3.85 billion term loan facility.
- In October 2025, Train 5 secured approximately $6.7 billion in committed financing, including $1.29 billion in equity commitments from partners GIP, GIC, and Mubadala Investment Company, a $3.59 billion term loan facility, and $0.50 billion in private placement notes.
Capital Expenditures
- The Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 project (Trains 1-3) had an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) cost of approximately $12.0 billion at the Notice to Proceed (NTP) in July 2023.
- Expected project costs for Train 4 and Train 5, including EPC, owner's costs, contingencies, financing fees, and interest during construction, are each approximately $6.7 billion.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is the development and construction of the Rio Grande LNG export facility, with Trains 1-3 expected to begin LNG production in the first half of 2027, and Train 5 anticipated to achieve substantial completion in the first half of 2031.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.9 |
| Rev LTM | 15,474 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,663 |
| FCF LTM | -5,465 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -197 |
| CFO LTM | 5,391 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,422 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -14.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.46 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/04/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -37.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.96 | $6.54 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -6.3% | 14.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.6% | 64.9% |
| Downside Capture | -177.97 | -72.25 |
| Upside Capture | -119.30 | -74.45 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -43.7% | -13.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -3.02 | -3.72 | -2.54 | -1.00 | -0.42 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | -4.62 | -5.20 | -4.13 | -2.28 | -1.02 | 0.39 |
| Down Beta | -3.62 | -2.41 | -2.41 | 0.42 | 0.99 | 1.84 |
| Up Capture | -116% | -101% | -52% | -37% | -31% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 59 | 117 | 367 |
| Down Capture | -424% | -716% | -481% | -223% | -145% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 57 | 120 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT | -15.1% | 64.8% | 0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 30.5% | 20.8% | 1.18 | 37.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | -12.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | -12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | 35.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | -6.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.5% | -1.25 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT | 11.0% | 75.9% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 19.9% | 26.0% | 0.69 | 39.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 23.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 27.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 20.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.9% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 14.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NEXT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT | -3.1% | 87.1% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.3% | 29.6% | 0.35 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 24.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 18.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.7% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 6.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/03/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beall, Pamela KM | Family Trust | Buy | 3252026 | 7.07 | 71,500 | 505,505 | 505,505 | Form | |
| 2 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 5.54 | 800,000 | 4,431,280 | 146,344,252 | Form | |
| 3 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 5.83 | 851,971 | 4,968,098 | 149,399,201 | Form | |
| 4 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12102025 | 6.05 | 600,000 | 3,631,200 | 149,897,455 | Form | |
| 5 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12102025 | 6.36 | 293,131 | 1,864,225 | 153,702,826 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beall, Pamela KM | Family Trust | Buy | 3252026 | 7.07 | 71,500 | 505,505 | 505,505 | Form | |
| 2 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 5.54 | 800,000 | 4,431,280 | 146,344,252 | Form | |
| 3 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 5.83 | 851,971 | 4,968,098 | 149,399,201 | Form | |
| 4 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12102025 | 6.05 | 600,000 | 3,631,200 | 149,897,455 | Form | |
| 5 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12102025 | 6.36 | 293,131 | 1,864,225 | 153,702,826 | Form | |
| 6 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12102025 | 6.26 | 39,467 | 246,988 | 149,412,888 | Form | |
| 7 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12052025 | 6.21 | 151,058 | 938,614 | 148,105,213 | Form | |
| 8 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12052025 | 6.19 | 243,959 | 1,511,155 | 146,709,487 | Form | |
| 9 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12052025 | 6.04 | 241,946 | 1,460,701 | 141,518,152 | Form | |
| 10 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 5.93 | 310,964 | 1,844,483 | 137,603,030 | Form | |
| 11 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 6.05 | 205,160 | 1,242,141 | 138,573,737 | Form | |
| 12 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 6.12 | 111,084 | 679,712 | 138,792,353 | Form | |
| 13 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11262025 | 5.95 | 175,142 | 1,042,725 | 134,381,575 | Form | |
| 14 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11262025 | 5.73 | 285,502 | 1,635,355 | 128,286,236 | Form | |
| 15 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11262025 | 5.59 | 445,109 | 2,489,806 | 123,681,395 | Form | |
| 16 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 5.73 | 419,477 | 2,402,555 | 124,090,463 | Form | |
| 17 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 6.02 | 347,630 | 2,092,906 | 127,913,060 | Form | |
| 18 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 6.04 | 305,973 | 1,846,914 | 126,148,262 | Form | |
| 19 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 5.92 | 462,576 | 2,740,624 | 122,005,268 | Form | |
| 20 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 5.87 | 295,875 | 1,736,283 | 118,129,307 | Form | |
| 21 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 6.09 | 244,330 | 1,487,628 | 120,762,498 | Form | |
| 22 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11172025 | 6.08 | 460,334 | 2,800,028 | 119,157,331 | Form | |
| 23 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 11132025 | 6.07 | 591,837 | 3,591,563 | 116,087,577 | Form | |
| 24 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 9252025 | 7.02 | 449,510 | 3,155,246 | 130,121,657 | Form | |
| 25 | Hanwha, Aerospace Co, Ltd | Direct | Buy | 9252025 | 6.99 | 551,819 | 3,854,787 | 126,356,839 | Form | |
| 26 | Scoggins, Edward Andrew JR | Direct | Buy | 9192025 | 6.46 | 15,000 | 96,836 | 1,291,592 | Form | |
| 27 | Vrattos, William C | CGW Holdings LLC | Buy | 9182025 | 6.86 | 100,000 | 686,400 | 7,068,630 | Form | |
| 28 | Bardin, Hill Investment Partners LP | See notes | Buy | 9182025 | 6.98 | 357,021 | 2,492,899 | 64,761,947 | Form | |
| 29 | Vrattos, William C | CGW Holdings LLC | Buy | 9162025 | 7.31 | 500,000 | 3,656,200 | 6,799,157 | Form | |
| 30 | Schatzman, Matthew K | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9152025 | 7.14 | 281,500 | 2,009,628 | 37,453,450 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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