NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.105 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NextDecade (NEXT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.105Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 367% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 133x | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -224 Mil |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 367% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 133x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NEXT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why NextDecade (NEXT) stock moved by -42.9% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. NextDecade was flagged as significantly overvalued by InvestingPro models in early August 2025, when the stock was trading around $11.10 to $12.00, near its 52-week high of $12.12. This analysis proved prescient as the stock subsequently declined by approximately 43%, reaching around $6.18 by mid-October.
2. Analysts expressed concerns about the company's long-term profitability assumptions, leading to downgrades and lower price targets. For instance, a TD Cowen analyst estimated NextDecade's worth to be significantly lower than what its financials implied, based on more conservative margin assumptions. Morgan Stanley also downgraded the stock, citing a lower cash flow outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEXT Return | -66% | 36% | 73% | -3% | 62% | -25% | -5% |
| Peers Return | -21% | -22% | 48% | 13% | 36% | 16% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEXT Win Rate | 17% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 25% | 38% | 33% | 28% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEXT Max Drawdown | -81% | -19% | -26% | -20% | -9% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -29% | -12% | -15% | -10% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FTI, HLX, FTK, HMH, WBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 424.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 228.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2342 days | 120 days |
Compare to FTI, HLX, FTK, HMH, WBI
In The Past
NextDecade's stock fell -62.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2021. A -62.2% loss requires a 164.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NextDecade
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 844 |
| Op Inc LTM | 84 |
| FCF LTM | 18 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 50 |
| CFO LTM | 35 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 64 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 19.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3112024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |