Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $190.31 | Market Cap: $41.7 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $190.31Market Cap: $41.7 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil | Key risksLNG key risks include [1] a global LNG oversupply threatening its ability to secure profitable new contracts, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% |
| Key risksLNG key risks include [1] a global LNG oversupply threatening its ability to secure profitable new contracts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LNG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Cheniere Energy (symbol: LNG) stock moved by approximately -21.1% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025: 1. Squeezed Profit Margins from Diverging Natural Gas Prices: A primary factor in the stock's decline was the significant reduction in profit margins for LNG exporters like Cheniere. This was caused by rising U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices, which neared a three-year high due to domestic demand and cold weather, while international LNG spot prices in key markets such as Europe and Asia simultaneously decreased. The resulting shrinkage of the spread between these prices, reaching its lowest point since April 2021, directly eroded profitability. 2. Anticipated LNG Supply Glut: Investor sentiment was impacted by the market's expectation of an oversupply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2026, particularly from the United States. This anticipation contributed to the downward pressure on international LNG prices, further squeezing the margins of exporters. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LNG Return | -2% | 69% | 49% | 15% | 27% | -11% | 223% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LNG Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 67% | 75% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LNG Max Drawdown | -51% | -2% | 0% | -8% | -10% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, SRE, VG, COP, XOM. See LNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 801 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4292.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,857 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ET, MPLX, OKE, PBA, ENB
In The Past
Cheniere Energy's stock fell -23.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2022. A -23.4% loss requires a 30.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LNG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| 05312020 | LNG | Cheniere Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.5% | 91.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.1% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| 05312020 | LNG | Cheniere Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.5% | 91.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cheniere Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 94.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 56.7 |
| Rev LTM | 39,375 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,144 |
| FCF LTM | 3,706 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,095 |
| CFO LTM | 7,984 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,217 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 56.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 14.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.2% | -2.6% | 0.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.3% | -1.7% | 0.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.6% | -2.1% | 2.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 3.7% | 0.1% | 5.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.2% | 8.8% | 23.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| 5/3/2024 | -1.9% | -1.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | -4.2% | -7.1% | -3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.9% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 12.2% | 23.4% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -8.6% | -35.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |