Venture Global (VG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.045 | Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Venture Global (VG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.045Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 75% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -123% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 75% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -123% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Venture Global's stock experienced a significant decline of -46.9% due to several key factors:
1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets:
Several financial firms significantly lowered their ratings and price targets for Venture Global. Notably, Mizuho downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral on October 10, 2025, cutting its price target from $17.00 to $12.00. Wells Fargo, Scotiabank, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also reduced their price targets during this period. Citi, on November 25, 2025, downgraded its price target from $16.00 to $9.00, citing weak LNG prices and ongoing legal risks, which further impacted investor confidence.
2. Significant Legal Setbacks and Potential Liabilities:
Venture Global faced adverse outcomes in its legal disputes with major customers. In October 2025, a court found that the company had breached its obligations to BP, potentially exposing it to liabilities exceeding $1 billion. Additionally, the company continued to contend with legal challenges from Shell regarding alleged failures to supply contracted LNG shipments, with Shell accusing Venture Global of "wrongfully earning" billions by selling cargoes on the spot market instead. These ongoing legal battles created considerable uncertainty and negatively affected market sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VG Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 8% | -1% | -14% | 10% | 24% | -21% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VG Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 42% | 40% | 52% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -21% | -32% | -19% | -14% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EGHT, CAMP, SNCR, ET, MPLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
VG has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Venture Global Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Venture Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,583 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,465 |
| FCF LTM | 40 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,318 |
| CFO LTM | 1,790 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,886 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.2 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.5 |
| P/E | -3.6 |
| P/CFO | 3.3 |
| Total Yield | -8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -45.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -114.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242025 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |