Tearsheet

Venture Global (VG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.045 | Market Cap: $17.1 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Venture Global (VG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.045
Market Cap: $17.1 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 75%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -123%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, and Carbon Capture & Storage.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 75%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -123%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Venture Global's stock experienced a significant decline of -46.9% due to several key factors:

1. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets: Several financial firms significantly lowered their ratings and price targets for Venture Global. Notably, Mizuho downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral on October 10, 2025, cutting its price target from $17.00 to $12.00. Wells Fargo, Scotiabank, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also reduced their price targets during this period. Citi, on November 25, 2025, downgraded its price target from $16.00 to $9.00, citing weak LNG prices and ongoing legal risks, which further impacted investor confidence.

2. Significant Legal Setbacks and Potential Liabilities: Venture Global faced adverse outcomes in its legal disputes with major customers. In October 2025, a court found that the company had breached its obligations to BP, potentially exposing it to liabilities exceeding $1 billion. Additionally, the company continued to contend with legal challenges from Shell regarding alleged failures to supply contracted LNG shipments, with Shell accusing Venture Global of "wrongfully earning" billions by selling cargoes on the spot market instead. These ongoing legal battles created considerable uncertainty and negatively affected market sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VG Return------ 
Peers Return8%-1%-14%10%24%-21%-1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VG Win Rate-----33% 
Peers Win Rate40%42%40%52%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VG Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-21%-32%-19%-14%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EGHT, CAMP, SNCR, ET, MPLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

VG has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Venture Global (VG)

Better Bets than Venture Global (VG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Venture Global

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VGEGHTCAMPSNCRETMPLXMedian
NameVenture .8x8 Camp4 Th.Synchron.Energy T.MPLX  
Mkt Price6.892.043.255.30--4.28
Mkt Cap16.70.30.10.1--0.2
Rev LTM8,445721317179,75711,4204,583
Op Inc LTM2,90115-54309,2404,6261,465
FCF LTM-10,38339-46415,1894,68640
FCF 3Y Avg-48-156,0954,5892,318
CFO LTM3,52554-465510,8416,0881,790
CFO 3Y Avg-64-3210,2175,7082,886

Growth & Margins

VGEGHTCAMPSNCRETMPLXMedian
NameVenture .8x8 Camp4 Th.Synchron.Energy T.MPLX  
Rev Chg LTM62.2%0.3%759.1%0.1%-4.7%6.3%3.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.4%-7.6%-3.0%2.5%1.5%
Rev Chg Q179.9%1.7%--2.2%-3.9%4.6%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM30.9%0.4%99.1%-0.6%-1.0%1.1%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM34.4%2.1%-1,785.1%17.3%11.6%40.5%14.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--0.3%-4.7%10.8%40.6%7.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.3%1,745.5%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM41.7%7.5%-1,516.8%32.2%13.6%53.3%22.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-8.8%-21.7%12.7%52.8%17.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-122.9%5.4%-1,534.8%23.9%6.5%41.0%6.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.6%-9.4%7.5%42.5%8.5%

Valuation

VGEGHTCAMPSNCRETMPLXMedian
NameVenture .8x8 Camp4 Th.Synchron.Energy T.MPLX  
Mkt Cap16.70.30.10.1--0.2
P/S4.50.49.70.4--2.4
P/EBIT12.817.3-0.54.2--8.5
P/E25.3-49.0-0.6-6.7---3.6
P/CFO10.75.4-0.61.2--3.3
Total Yield4.6%-2.0%-177.1%-15.0%---8.5%
Dividend Yield0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-16.9%-22.9%--19.9%
D/E0.81.30.22.7--1.1
Net D/E0.71.1-1.12.1--0.9

Returns

VGEGHTCAMPSNCRETMPLXMedian
NameVenture .8x8 Camp4 Th.Synchron.Energy T.MPLX  
1M Rtn-17.6%9.7%-17.5%-4.8%---11.2%
3M Rtn-45.8%3.0%130.5%-6.5%---1.7%
6M Rtn-53.7%16.6%71.1%-23.4%---3.4%
12M Rtn--33.6%-33.0%-47.6%---33.6%
3Y Rtn--57.1%--33.8%---45.5%
1M Excs Rtn-17.6%9.7%-17.5%-4.8%---11.1%
3M Excs Rtn-51.7%-1.8%114.2%-8.5%---5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-68.4%1.9%56.3%-38.1%---18.1%
12M Excs Rtn--47.7%-45.7%-59.9%---47.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--122.8%--105.9%---114.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity41,704,974
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.0%
Average Daily Volume10,664,099
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.91
Basic Shares Quantity2,423,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
123120231242025424B4 12/31/2023