Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $201.14 | Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Nexstar Media (NXST)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $201.14Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 21% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 178% Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 21% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Video Streaming. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 178% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 4/30/2025. |
| Key risksNXST key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with significant interest expenses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Nexstar Media (NXST) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nexstar Media Group reported record third-quarter (Q3 2026) financial results, with net revenue surging 78.0% year-over-year to $2.13 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.07 billion. This strong revenue performance was accompanied by a 111.2% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $756 million, and net income growing 284.6% to $250 million.
2. The successful integration of the TEGNA acquisition significantly boosted Nexstar's revenue. The acquisition, which closed in March 2026, contributed an incremental $765 million to Q3 2026 revenue, playing a crucial role in the record top-line growth.
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Nexstar Media (NXST) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Nexstar Media Group reported record third-quarter (Q3 2026) financial results, with net revenue surging 78.0% year-over-year to $2.13 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.07 billion. This strong revenue performance was accompanied by a 111.2% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, reaching $756 million, and net income growing 284.6% to $250 million.
2. The successful integration of the TEGNA acquisition significantly boosted Nexstar's revenue. The acquisition, which closed in March 2026, contributed an incremental $765 million to Q3 2026 revenue, playing a crucial role in the record top-line growth.
3. Record political advertising revenue contributed substantially to the company's profitability during the Q3 2026 period. Nexstar reported an "all-time high" of $317 million in political advertising revenue for Q3 2026, driven by the 2026 midterm election cycle. This high-margin revenue stream directly improved profit margins, with combined Nexstar and TEGNA net political advertising revenue for 2026 reaching a record $1.1 billion, up 31% from 2022.
4. Nexstar demonstrated a strong commitment to debt reduction, significantly improving its financial leverage. The company repaid $350 million of debt during Q3 2026 and an additional $525 million after the quarter ended, bringing the year-to-date debt reduction to $1.3 billion. Management expressed a goal of bringing total net leverage closer to 3x from 4.04x at the end of Q3 2026.
5. Positive analyst sentiment and increased price targets followed the strong Q3 2026 earnings report. Several analysts upgraded Nexstar or raised their price targets in early November 2026. For example, Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy" on November 7, 2026, and Citigroup raised its price target to $225 from $215 while maintaining a "Buy" rating on November 9, 2026. The consensus rating for NXST remains a "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $256.67 as of November 7, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.7% change in NXST stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.65 | 201.23 | 6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,112 | 6,811 | 33.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 5.5% | 69.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.7 | 16.6 | -52.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 22.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.8% | 52.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.4% change in NXST stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 204.15 | 201.23 | -1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,950 | 6,811 | 37.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 5.5% | 148.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.8 | 16.6 | -70.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | -1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.0% | 15.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.6% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.7% change in NXST stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.64 | 201.23 | 6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,316 | 6,811 | 28.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 5.5% | -54.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 16.6 | 84.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 16.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.6% | 33.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.8% change in NXST stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 161.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.35 | 201.23 | 61.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,253 | 6,811 | 29.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 5.5% | -58.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.4 | 16.6 | 161.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 31 | 16.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NXST | 61.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 71.2% | 40.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NXST Return | 41% | 18% | -8% | 5% | 34% | 2% | 121% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -23% | -35% | -27% | 21% | -19% | -60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NXST Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 28% | 45% | 47% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NXST Max Drawdown | -16% | -23% | -36% | -16% | -21% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -38% | -52% | -59% | -46% | -53% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FOXA, PARA, SBGI, GTN, SSP. See NXST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NXST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 219 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1723.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 996 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1996 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Nexstar Media's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Nexstar Media (NXST)
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a prominent television broadcasting and digital media company primarily focused on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations across the United States. The company owns, operates, or provides services to a vast network of local TV stations, many of which are affiliates of major broadcast networks such as ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, and MyNetworkTV. This extensive reach allows Nexstar to deliver local news, sports, and entertainment programming to communities nationwide, and it also extends its operational expertise by providing sales, programming, and other services to independent third-party stations.
The company's main products and services revolve around content delivery and advertising. Nexstar offers free television programming to viewing audiences through its numerous local broadcast stations. A significant part of its business involves generating revenue through video and display advertising platforms, which are delivered both locally via its television stations and nationally through its proprietary and partner websites and mobile applications. Additionally, Nexstar Media Group owns and operates WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network, further diversifying its content offerings and advertising avenues.
Nexstar Media serves a dual primary market. On one hand, it caters to the general U.S. television viewing audience by providing free, accessible broadcast programming. On the other, its services are geared towards advertisers—from local businesses to national brands—who seek to reach these audiences effectively across its various television and digital platforms. The company also acts as a key service provider for other station owners, contributing to the broader broadcast ecosystem.
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It's like the Marriott or Hilton of local broadcast TV stations, operating hundreds of network affiliates across the U.S.
Think of it as the McDonald's of local TV stations, managing hundreds of local broadcast affiliates for major networks like ABC, NBC, and CBS.
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- Local Television Broadcasting: Operates and programs a large portfolio of local television stations, delivering free programming to viewing audiences.
- Digital Media Services: Provides interactive community websites and various digital media services that complement its broadcast operations.
- Advertising Services: Offers video and display advertising platforms delivered through its own and third-party websites and mobile applications.
- National Cable Network: Owns and operates a national general entertainment cable network, WGN America (now NewsNation).
- Broadcast Station Services: Provides sales, programming, and other operational services to independent third-party owned television stations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) primarily sells its services and advertising inventory to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Advertisers: Businesses and organizations that purchase video and display advertising platforms to reach local and national audiences through Nexstar's television stations, websites, and mobile applications.
- Cable, Satellite, and Streaming TV Providers: Companies that carry Nexstar's national general entertainment cable network (WGN America/NewsNation) and its affiliated local television stations, paying carriage fees and retransmission consent fees.
- Independent Third-Party Television Stations: Other television stations that contract with Nexstar for various services, including sales, programming, and other operational support, as mentioned for the 37 power television stations.
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- The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
- Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
- Fox Corporation (FOX)
- Paramount Global (PARA)
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
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Perry A. Sook, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Perry A. Sook founded Nexstar Media Group in 1996 with the acquisition of a single local television station, WYOU in Scranton, Pennsylvania. He has over 37 years of experience in the television and radio broadcasting industries, encompassing ownership, mergers and acquisitions, management, sales, on-air talent, and news. Before founding Nexstar, Mr. Sook was a principal of Superior Communication Group, Inc., which was sold to Sinclair Broadcast Group in 1995. Prior to Superior, he served as President/CEO of Seaway Communication, Inc. Nexstar was initially backed by ABRY Partners.
Lee Ann Gliha, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Lee Ann Gliha was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in August 2021. She oversees all financial aspects of the company, including financial reporting, internal audit, investor relations, treasury, and capital markets functions, and plays a prominent role in strategic planning, business development, and mergers and acquisitions. From April 2016 to July 2021, Ms. Gliha was a Managing Director at Jefferies LLC, where she oversaw transactions exceeding $90 billion, primarily in the technology, media, and telecommunications sector. Before Jefferies, she worked as an investment banker at Houlihan Lokey from 2008 to 2016, specializing in media and out-of-home entertainment. Ms. Gliha also held positions at UBS Investment Bank and Banc of America Securities and previously served as Executive Vice President of Corporate Finance at Live Nation, Inc. from 2006 to 2008, where she was responsible for M&A, financing, and investor relations.
Michael Biard, President and Chief Operating Officer
Michael Biard serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Nexstar Media Group. He participates in discussions about Nexstar Media Group's strategy and operations.
Rachel Morgan, EVP/General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Rachel Morgan is the Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Nexstar Media Group.
Brett Jenkins, EVP/Chief Technology & Digital Officer
Brett Jenkins is the Executive Vice President, Chief Technology & Digital Officer. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing Nexstar's digital technology and operations, including its local websites, mobile applications, and the BestReviews platform.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats for Nexstar Media are the accelerating trends of cord-cutting and the comprehensive shift in viewership and advertising spend towards Over-The-Top (OTT) streaming services and digital platforms. As consumers increasingly abandon traditional cable and satellite subscriptions and opt for a multitude of on-demand streaming options (both subscription-based and ad-supported), Nexstar's core revenue streams—retransmission fees from cable/satellite providers and advertising dollars for its broadcast stations and national cable network (WGN America)—are directly undermined. Concurrently, the proliferation of digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Meta, Amazon) offering highly targeted and measurable ad solutions draws significant advertising expenditure away from traditional linear television, further pressuring Nexstar's financial performance.
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Share Repurchases
- Nexstar's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program in July 2024, authorizing up to $1.5 billion in repurchases, building upon an existing program that had $496 million remaining as of May 8, 2024.
- In 2024, Nexstar returned $601 million to shareholders through share repurchases, contributing to a nearly 9% reduction in shares outstanding during that year.
- The company repurchased 441,164 shares for $75 million in the first quarter of 2025 and 311,998 shares for $50 million in the second quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2022, Nexstar acquired a 75% controlling stake in The CW Network, subsequently increasing its ownership to 77.1% in December 2024.
- Nexstar announced the acquisition of WBNX-TV/TV55 in Cleveland, Ohio, in October 2024, which commenced operations as a CW affiliate on September 1, 2025, creating a duopoly in the market.
- In August 2025, Nexstar entered a definitive agreement to acquire TEGNA Inc. for $6.2 billion, an all-cash transaction inclusive of TEGNA's net debt and transaction expenses, with the closing anticipated by the second half of 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $35 million.
- In the second quarter of 2025, capital expenditures decreased to $29 million from $37 million in the comparable prior-year quarter, mainly due to the timing of projects and lower overall capital expenditures in non-election years.
- For the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures increased to $54 million, up from $35 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Peer Outperformance in Broadcasting
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -5.2% | 20.2% | 48.0% | ECHO 275% · TMUS 48% |
| Publishing | 6 | 28.2% | 17.0% | 10.1% | NYT 56% · NWSA 17% · WLY 12% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -10.5% | 18.1% | -22.0% | GSAT 229% · AD 104% · TDS 98% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 22 | 18.4% | 52.7% | -28.0% | IMAX 140% · FWONA 97% · CNK 92% |
| Broadcasting ← | 14 | -10.9% | -16.2% | -67.8% | FOXA 78% · NXST 40% · SIRI -38% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 33 | -35.4% | -38.3% | -69.2% | GOOGL 95% · META 93% · CARG -4% |
| Advertising | 18 | -32.5% | -12.3% | -69.7% | APP 296% · OMC 53% · MGNI 22% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -43.6% | -60.5% | -73.1% | TTWO 11% · RBLX -53% · PINS -59% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -45.6% | 11.9% | -73.5% | IRDM 13% · LUMN -66% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Nexstar Media Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| With Nexstar Media Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| NXST's 11% One Week Pop Begs The Question: Is IBKR Better Instead? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Nexstar Media Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than NXST Stock: Pay Less Than Nexstar Media To Get More From CALM, PTCT | 08/12/2025 | |
| NXST Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Nexstar Media (NXST) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| 8 Green Days In A Row: Nexstar Media Stock Is Up 22% | 11/10/2026 | |
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 08/12/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,374 |
| Op Inc LTM | 460 |
| FCF LTM | 259 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 245 |
| CFO LTM | 353 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 335 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 4,657 | 5,134 | 4,611 | 5,033 | 4,534 |
| Other Segment | 346 | 317 | 339 | 173 | |
| Corporate (unallocated) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |
| Eliminations | -64 | -54 | -27 | -4 | |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | 114 | ||||
| The CW Network, LLC (CW) | 0 | ||||
| Total | 4,949 | 5,407 | 4,933 | 5,211 | 4,648 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 849 | 1,268 | 708 | 1,312 | 1,742 |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | -153 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization expense | -589 | ||||
| Goodwill and other long-lived asset impairments | -23 | ||||
| Miscellaneous | 11 | ||||
| Payments for broadcast rights | 167 | ||||
| Reimbursement from the Federal Communications Commission’s (“FCC”) related to station repack | 20 | ||||
| Total | 849 | 1,268 | 708 | 1,312 | 1,175 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast Segment | 11,203 | 11,635 | 12,039 | 12,353 | 12,919 |
| Corporate (unallocated) and Other | 577 | ||||
| The CW Network, LLC (CW) | 298 | ||||
| Corporate (unallocated) | 547 | 1,226 | 1,052 | ||
| Other Segment | 497 | 1,071 | |||
| Total | 12,078 | 12,679 | 13,264 | 13,404 | 13,990 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $201.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/25/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $168.16 | $189.27 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 19.7% | 6.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.2% | 36.5% |
| Downside Capture | 16.19 | 68.09 |
| Upside Capture | 44.46 | 65.26 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 5.7% | 13.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.70 | 0.35 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | -2.56 | 2.36 | 1.51 | 0.86 | 0.17 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | -0.20 | -0.91 | -0.89 | -0.41 | 0.13 | 0.87 |
| Up Capture | -32% | 25% | 52% | 28% | 42% | 40% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 29 | 57 | 120 | 381 |
| Down Capture | -124% | 71% | 114% | 81% | 80% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 35 | 68 | 130 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 10.3% | 36.5% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -3.6% | 16.8% | -0.40 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.65 | 15.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.7% | 28.8% | 0.12 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.2% | 21.3% | 1.42 | -16.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.65 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.6% | -0.55 | 4.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 9.0% | 35.0% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.0% | 21.1% | 0.24 | 44.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.3% | 0.51 | 42.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.75 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 41.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 17.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NXST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST | 18.4% | 39.9% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.8% | 22.1% | 0.43 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.60 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 20.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 48.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 1.5% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | -1.1% | -2.6% | -5.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.4% | -0.6% | -6.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -5.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -3.1% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.1% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 1.5% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | -1.1% | -2.6% | -5.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.4% | -0.6% | -6.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -5.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 11.1% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.9% | -9.4% | -6.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 6.9% | 4.5% | -6.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.5% | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -2.7% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -4.0% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.1% | -1.9% | 1.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.3% | -6.7% | -13.7% |
| 11/8/2022 | 8.0% | 9.2% | 18.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| 5/10/2022 | 5.1% | 13.3% | 13.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | 0.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 9.7% | -5.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.5% | -0.2% | 2.0% |
| 2/23/2021 | 9.2% | 12.2% | 16.2% |
| 11/5/2020 | 5.4% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -3.1% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.1% | 17.6% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -11.3% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/9/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 165.69 | 2,823 | 467,743 | 1,942,881 | Form |
| 2 | Aulestia, Bernadette S | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 186.80 | 300 | 56,040 | 818,744 | Form | |
| 3 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 185.82 | 2,465 | 458,047 | 3,881,786 | Form |
| 4 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 187.46 | 4,008 | 751,352 | 335,934 | Form |
| 5 | Sook, Perry A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6292026 | 162.26 | 12,235 | 1,985,309 | 145,883,105 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 165.69 | 2,823 | 467,743 | 1,942,881 | Form |
| 2 | Aulestia, Bernadette S | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 186.80 | 300 | 56,040 | 818,744 | Form | |
| 3 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 185.82 | 2,465 | 458,047 | 3,881,786 | Form |
| 4 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 187.46 | 4,008 | 751,352 | 335,934 | Form |
| 5 | Sook, Perry A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 6292026 | 162.26 | 12,235 | 1,985,309 | 145,883,105 | Form |
| 6 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 261 | 44,581 | 1,189,350 | Form |
| 7 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 261 | 44,581 | 4,833,240 | Form |
| 8 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 93 | 15,885 | 196,773 | Form |
| 9 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 301 | 51,414 | 4,918,986 | Form |
| 10 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 876 | 149,630 | 990,698 | Form |
| 11 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 840 | 143,480 | 2,464,788 | Form |
| 12 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 746 | 127,424 | 2,485,115 | Form |
| 13 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 170.81 | 373 | 63,712 | 3,429,011 | Form |
| 14 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 174.21 | 194 | 33,796 | 1,144,182 | Form |
| 15 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 174.21 | 1,227 | 213,750 | 2,979,785 | Form |
| 16 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 239 | 42,164 | 4,922,211 | Form |
| 17 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 284 | 50,102 | 5,017,829 | Form |
| 18 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 752 | 132,666 | 3,441,896 | Form |
| 19 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 915 | 161,422 | 1,012,281 | Form |
| 20 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 875 | 154,365 | 2,528,408 | Form |
| 21 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 176.42 | 778 | 137,252 | 2,532,819 | Form |
| 22 | McMillen, Charles Thomas | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 180.00 | 1,000 | 180,000 | 1,018,440 | Form | |
| 23 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 319 | 58,190 | 1,096,681 | Form |
| 24 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 319 | 58,190 | 4,996,355 | Form |
| 25 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 397 | 72,419 | 5,103,433 | Form |
| 26 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 433 | 78,986 | 688,983 | Form |
| 27 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 414 | 75,520 | 2,249,363 | Form |
| 28 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 368 | 67,129 | 2,236,229 | Form |
| 29 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 182.42 | 258 | 47,063 | 3,354,070 | Form |
| 30 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 184.27 | 290 | 53,438 | 160,315 | Form |
| 31 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 185.33 | 605 | 112,125 | 2,166,322 | Form |
| 32 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 184 | 34,467 | 939,979 | Form |
| 33 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 185 | 34,654 | 4,944,536 | Form |
| 34 | Morgan, Rachel | EVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 185 | 34,654 | 105,837 | Form |
| 35 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 247 | 46,268 | 80,736 | Form |
| 36 | Knapp, Lindsey | EVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 92 | 17,234 | 217,293 | Form |
| 37 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 229 | 42,897 | 5,069,104 | Form |
| 38 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 465 | 87,104 | 612,916 | Form |
| 39 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 445 | 83,358 | 2,211,704 | Form |
| 40 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 395 | 73,992 | 2,302,929 | Form |
| 41 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 742 | 138,992 | 3,369,537 | Form |
| 42 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 187.32 | 989 | 185,261 | 2,851,781 | Form |
| 43 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 196.00 | 5,000 | 980,000 | 2,205,392 | Form |
| 44 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 196.37 | 237 | Form | ||
| 45 | Weaver, Robert S | EVP, Government Relations | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,101 | 240,604 | 409,092 | Form |
| 46 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 1,247,161 | Form |
| 47 | Russell, Blake | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 5,644,895 | Form |
| 48 | Morgan, Rachel | EVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 333 | 72,771 | 683,349 | Form |
| 49 | Jenkins, Brett | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 414 | 90,472 | 5,799,834 | Form |
| 50 | Lanzano, Dan | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 138 | 30,157 | 51,792 | Form |
| 51 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 839 | 183,348 | 598,122 | Form |
| 52 | Compton, Sean | President, Networks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 804 | 175,700 | 3,551,579 | Form |
| 53 | Alford, Andrew | President, Broadcasting | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 623 | 136,145 | 2,554,418 | Form |
| 54 | Gliha, Lee Ann | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,337 | 292,177 | 3,683,353 | Form |
| 55 | Biard, Michael | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 218.53 | 1,802 | 393,794 | 2,996,727 | Form |
| 56 | Weitman, Gary | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 226.00 | 3,527 | 797,102 | 1,365,040 | Form |
| 57 | Zimmer, Dana | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 225.50 | 4,409 | 994,230 | 806,388 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Financial Group Inc | $41.1 Mil | 15.3% | 87 | Hold | 13F |
| Engine Capital Management, LP | $36.0 Mil | 4.3% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $38.6 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $31.9 Mil | 3.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $45.2 Mil | 1.8% | 25 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $45.2 Mil | 1.8% | 25 | TRIM -23.1% | 13F |
| American Financial Group Inc | $41.1 Mil | 15.3% | 87 | Hold | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $38.6 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Engine Capital Management, LP | $36.0 Mil | 4.3% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Bruni J V & Co /Co | $31.9 Mil | 3.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
NXST Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Nexstar is successfully navigating a high-leverage period by generating substantial free cash flow, driven by record political advertising of $1.1 billion and growing distribution fees. Management is executing, having already paid down $1.3 billion in debt this year. The primary risk is the high debt level, but the company's ability to service and reduce it appears strong.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid Contractual/Cyclical(Distribution Fee per Subscriber x # of Subscribers) + (Advertising Rate x # of Impressions) Negotiated contractual increases in per-subscriber distribution fees, which have high incremental margins.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; the company is generating strong cash and rapidly paying down acquisition-related debt.
- Combined net political ad revenue for 2026 hit a record $1.1 billion.
- Year-to-date debt reduction reached $1.3 billion as of November 2026.
- Combined distribution revenue increased 2.1% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Free cash flow as a percentage of sales is high.
- The CW network is expected to achieve its first profitable quarter in Q4 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Net debt of $11 billion (5.74x EBITDA) and a legal injunction preventing integration with TEGNA create significant financial risk if operating cash flow falters.
- Net debt is $11 billion, which is 5.74 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- Interest coverage is low at 1.8 times TTM EBIT over interest expense.
- A preliminary injunction prohibits the integration of Nexstar and TEGNA.
- Non-political advertising is expected to decline high single digits in Q4.
- MVPD subscriber counts continue to decline across the industry.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Distribution Revenue Growth | 2.1% year-over-year growth on a combined-company basis in Q3 2026 - Stable | Distribution revenue growth is driven by contractual rate increases and growth from virtual streaming platforms, which are offsetting subscriber attrition in the traditional cable and satellite (MVPD) bundle. The company successfully completed key distribution negotiations in the quarter without service interruptions. |
| Advertising Revenue Growth (Political & Non-Political) | Political advertising revenue was $317 million in Q3 2026; Non-political (core) advertising revenue declined 5% year-over-year on a combined basis. - Accelerating | The advertising business shows a stark divergence. The 2026 midterm election cycle delivered record-breaking revenue, demonstrating the power of the company's broadcast footprint. This strength masks underlying softness in the core advertising market, which management attributes to economic conditions and displacement by high-demand political ads. |
| NewsNation Total Day Viewership Growth (YTD) | 34% (Year-to-date as of Q3 2026 earnings call) | Market rewards Outperforming peers FOX News, CNN, and MS NOW.. Indicates growing audience engagement and market share for the national news network, which supports advertising and carriage fee revenue. |
| The CW Viewership Growth (YoY) | 9% (Q3 2026) | Measures the success of the network's programming strategy shift towards live sports and entertainment, which is crucial for improving advertising revenue and achieving profitability. |
| Political Advertising Revenue | $1.1 billion (2026 election cycle) | Market rewards Exceeding prior cycles; management noted a 31% increase versus 2022.. Reflects the company's ability to capture a significant share of cyclical, high-margin political spending, a key driver of free cash flow in even-numbered years. |
Deleveraging Race: Cash Flow vs. Debt Load
BULL VIEW
Record political ad revenue of $1.1 billion and resilient distribution fees provide more than enough cash to rapidly reduce debt, as shown by the $1.3 billion paid down year-to-date.
CORE TENSION
Can the $1.3 billion in year-to-date debt reduction outpace the risk from 5.74x Net Debt/EBITDA leverage, which the market has punished?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company is exceeding its own deleveraging targets, and management reaffirmed its timeline for The CW's profitability in Q4.
BEAR VIEW
An $11 billion net debt load is too risky with core advertising weakening and TEGNA synergies legally blocked, leaving no room for operational missteps or a recession.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 16, 2026 | Peer Reporting Signals Ad Weakness Watch: PARA's reported advertising revenue growth and forward-looking commentary on the ad market, especially post-election. |
November 17, 2026 | Negative TEGNA Injunction Ruling Watch: The ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit following the hearing. |
November 17, 2026 | TEGNA Injunction Appeal Hearing Watch: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will hear the company's appeal challenging the preliminary injunction that prevents integration with TEGNA Inc. |
Friday, November 27, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share is payable to shareholders of record on November 13, 2026. |
Q4 of this year | The CW Profitability Milestone Watch: The CW Network is expected to achieve its first profitable quarter. |
2/2/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Fox (FOXA) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/23/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer E W Scripps (SSP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
February 25, 2027 | Failure to Achieve CW Profitability Watch: The CW's segment profit/loss in the Q4 2026 earnings report. Management stated they "still expect the CW to achieve its first profitable quarter in Q4." |
No set date | Leverage Stress from EBITDA Miss Watch: Any pre-announcement or earnings report showing a significant miss on adjusted EBITDA, which would pressure leverage ratios. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Record Q3 Revenue and Political Ads Details: Nexstar reported its highest quarterly net revenue of $2.1 billion, driven by the TEGNA acquisition and a record $1.1 billion in combined net political advertising for the 2026 cycle. | +2.6% $185.12 -> $190.02 |
2026-09-02 | CW Network Sets Viewership Record Details: A college football game between New Mexico State and Florida State delivered The CW's most-watched sports broadcast in network history, averaging 1.96 million viewers. | -0.1% $177.84 -> $177.67 |
2026-08-06 | Record Q2 Revenue Reported Details: The company reported record second-quarter net revenue of $2.0 billion, driven by the TEGNA acquisition and advertising growth. The stock reacted positively, up 2.0% post-earnings. | +2.0% $188.16 -> $191.87 |
2026-07-31 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share, payable on August 28, 2026. | +0.0% $190.53 -> $190.59 |
2026-05-20 | Company Seeks Expedited Injunction Review Details: Press reports in May indicated Nexstar asked a U.S. appeals court to expedite a review of the lower-court order halting its merger with Tegna. | +0.4% $186.77 -> $187.55 |
2026-05-08 | Q1 Earnings Detail TEGNA Close Details: The company reported Q1 results which included 13 days of contribution from the TEGNA acquisition. Management detailed the unusual legal and operational constraints following the close. | +4.3% $190.79 -> $198.90 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: NXST trades at roughly 32% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
FOXA - Fox
Premium Content LeaderFox offers greater scale with revenue 2.6 times that of Nexstar and owns a 'Big 4' broadcast network, giving it more control over premium national content like the NFL.
SBGI - Sinclair
Broadcast PeerSinclair provides a different risk profile within the same industry, with a lower operating margin compared to Nexstar's 20.8%, but also its own unique assets.
A scaled local media toll-booth operator collecting growing, high-margin distribution fees and massive cyclical political ad revenue, while attempting a strategic turnaround of its national network assets.
Nexstar's core business is a durable cash-flow engine, leveraging its unmatched scale in local TV to secure contractual revenue from pay-TV distributors that has historically outpaced subscriber declines. This is supplemented by enormous cash windfalls from political advertising every two years. The company is using this financial strength to pay down debt from the TEGNA acquisition and fund a strategic pivot at The CW network towards live sports, aiming to create a new profitable national asset.
Successful renewal of major distribution agreements with favorable rate increases; political advertising revenue in 2028 exceeding the 2026 cycle; The CW network achieving sustained profitability.
An acceleration in pay-TV subscriber declines that can no longer be offset by rate increases; regulatory changes that weaken retransmission consent negotiation leverage; failure of The CW's sports strategy to drive profitability.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in non-political (core) advertising, which is subject to macro-economic conditions and political 'crowd-out' effects.
Repricing Catalyst
The full financial impact of the record 2026 political advertising cycle, continued rapid deleveraging post-TEGNA acquisition, and resolution of the legal injunction preventing full integration of TEGNA, which would unlock synergies.
Broadcast
$4.8B TTM (95% of Total) · 20% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes television stations and related local websites, the NewsNation national cable news network, and multicast networks. It sells content carriage rights to distributors and advertising inventory to businesses and political campaigns.
Who Pays & How
Distributors pay for the right to retransmit the segment's station signals, which are essential for their channel lineups. Advertisers pay to reach the segment's large, engaged local and national audiences.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Broadcasting Resources |
| Broadcasting & Cable |
| TV Technology |
| Radio Ink |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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