Gray Media (GTN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.055 | Market Cap: $490.3 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Gray Media (GTN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.055Market Cap: $490.3 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. | Key risksGTN key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and high financial leverage, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
| Key risksGTN key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and high financial leverage, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Gray Television (GTN) experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, with several key factors contributing to this movement.
1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss and Negative Outlook: Gray Media's Q2 2025 financial results, reported on August 8, 2025, showed a miss on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) compared to analyst expectations. The reported revenue was $772 million against estimates of $774 million, and the EPS was -$0.42 versus an estimated -$0.36. This performance led to a pre-market drop of over 5% and contributed to a 19.5% decline in the stock over the preceding two weeks and a 26.3% decline over the previous month, reflecting investor concerns about profitability and near-term prospects.
2. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Weaker Q4 Guidance: While Gray Television's Q3 2025 earnings, reported on November 7, 2025, beat EPS forecasts, the company's revenue of $749 million was slightly below analyst consensus estimates of around $752.5 million. More importantly, the revenue guidance for Q4 2025 was set at a midpoint of $774.5 million, which was 4.8% below analysts' estimates of $813.3 million. This weaker forward-looking guidance likely fueled investor apprehension about future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTN Return | -17% | 14% | -43% | -17% | -62% | 77% | -70% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 21% | 1% | -30% | -3% | 41% | 11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTN Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 46% | 29% | 38% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTN Max Drawdown | -59% | -7% | -55% | -44% | -65% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -5% | -12% | -45% | -26% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NXST, SBGI, TGNA, SSP. See GTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 317.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 428 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 812 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6144.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,836 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to UONE, CAST, WBD, FOXA, NXST
In The Past
Gray Media's stock fell -76.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -76.1% loss requires a 317.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Gray Media Earnings Notes | ||
| Gray Media (GTN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | |
| Gray Media Price Volatility | Volatility |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gray Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,337 |
| Op Inc LTM | 599 |
| FCF LTM | 429 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 372 |
| CFO LTM | 468 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 567 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 2.0 |
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.6 |
| Total Yield | 12.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| D/E | 7.1 |
| Net D/E | 6.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -28.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.5% |
| 8/8/2025 | -0.2% | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | 16.9% | 12.9% | 2.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | 0.5% | -9.8% | 16.2% |
| 11/8/2024 | -26.1% | -17.3% | -29.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | -14.6% | -18.6% | -12.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.6% | 4.2% | -11.7% |
| 1/30/2024 | -0.4% | -9.1% | -41.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.2% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -10.6% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 20.3% | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| Max Negative | -33.7% | -25.4% | -41.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 9112025 | Sell | 5.82 | 20,000 | 116,460 | 357,200 | Form | |
| 1 | Gignac Jeffrey R | Executive Vice President, CFO | 6092025 | Buy | 3.68 | 12,500 | 46,000 | 2,372,124 | Form |
| 2 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 3042025 | Sell | 3.85 | 16,000 | 61,552 | 212,920 | Form | |
| 3 | McTear Paul | 12172024 | Sell | 3.77 | 17,780 | 67,020 | 359,450 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |