Gray Media (GTN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.66 | Market Cap: $452.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Gray Media (GTN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.66Market Cap: $452.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GTN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTN Return | -17% | 14% | -43% | -17% | -62% | 56% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 11% | -12% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTN Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 38% | 32% | 33% | 38% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTN Max Drawdown | -59% | -7% | -55% | -44% | -65% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -19% | -9% | -23% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UONE, CAST, WBD, FOXA, NXST. See GTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 317.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 428 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 812 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6144.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1836 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UONE, CAST, WBD, FOXA, NXST
In The Past
Gray Media's stock fell -76.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -76.1% loss requires a 317.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Gray Media (GTN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media (GTN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Gray Media vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | |
| Gray Media Price Volatility | Volatility | |
| Gray Communications Systems (GTN) Stock Has 57% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gray Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,248 |
| Op Inc LTM | 837 |
| FCF LTM | 712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 908 |
| CFO LTM | 828 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 5.5 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 5.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 9112025 | Sell | 5.82 | 20,000 | 116,460 | 357,200 | Form | |
| 1 | Gignac Jeffrey R | Executive Vice President, CFO | 6092025 | Buy | 3.68 | 12,500 | 46,000 | 2,372,124 | Form |
| 2 | BOGER RICHARD LEE | 3042025 | Sell | 3.85 | 16,000 | 61,552 | 212,920 | Form | |
| 3 | McTear Paul | 12172024 | Sell | 3.77 | 17,780 | 67,020 | 359,450 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |