Tearsheet

Gray Media (GTN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.055 | Market Cap: $490.3 Mil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting

Gray Media (GTN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.055
Market Cap: $490.3 Mil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Broadcasting

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms.
  Key risks
GTN key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and high financial leverage, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 5.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 18%, FCF Yield is 78%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 981%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
6 Key risks
GTN key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and high financial leverage, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GTN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Gray Television (GTN) experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, with several key factors contributing to this movement.

1. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss and Negative Outlook: Gray Media's Q2 2025 financial results, reported on August 8, 2025, showed a miss on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) compared to analyst expectations. The reported revenue was $772 million against estimates of $774 million, and the EPS was -$0.42 versus an estimated -$0.36. This performance led to a pre-market drop of over 5% and contributed to a 19.5% decline in the stock over the preceding two weeks and a 26.3% decline over the previous month, reflecting investor concerns about profitability and near-term prospects.

2. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Weaker Q4 Guidance: While Gray Television's Q3 2025 earnings, reported on November 7, 2025, beat EPS forecasts, the company's revenue of $749 million was slightly below analyst consensus estimates of around $752.5 million. More importantly, the revenue guidance for Q4 2025 was set at a midpoint of $774.5 million, which was 4.8% below analysts' estimates of $813.3 million. This weaker forward-looking guidance likely fueled investor apprehension about future growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GTN Return-17%14%-43%-17%-62%77%-70%
Peers Return-5%21%1%-30%-3%41%11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GTN Win Rate58%67%42%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate56%46%29%38%50%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GTN Max Drawdown-59%-7%-55%-44%-65%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-5%-12%-45%-26%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NXST, SBGI, TGNA, SSP. See GTN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGTNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven317.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven428 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven812 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven6144.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,836 days1,480 days

Compare to UONE, CAST, WBD, FOXA, NXST


In The Past

Gray Media's stock fell -76.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -76.1% loss requires a 317.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gray Media (GTN)

Better Bets than Gray Media (GTN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GTN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.0%-5.0%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.3%1.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gray Media

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GTNNXSTSBGITGNASSPMedian
NameGray Med.Nexstar .Sinclair Tegna E W Scri. 
Mkt Price5.06205.7515.7819.654.5515.78
Mkt Cap0.56.21.13.30.41.1
Rev LTM3,3485,1483,3372,8762,3193,337
Op Inc LTM6251,049331599305599
FCF LTM440983211429122429
FCF 3Y Avg372908168519144372
CFO LTM5451,112289468161468
CFO 3Y Avg6031,056255567200567

Growth & Margins

GTNNXSTSBGITGNASSPMedian
NameGray Med.Nexstar .Sinclair Tegna E W Scri. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-1.4%-1.0%-2.7%-3.3%-2.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.3%1.2%-8.1%-2.8%-1.0%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q-21.2%-12.3%-15.7%-19.3%-18.6%-18.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.7%-3.2%-4.1%-5.1%-4.9%-4.9%
Op Mgn LTM18.7%20.4%9.9%20.8%13.1%18.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.2%19.8%5.2%22.8%13.4%19.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.6%-2.4%-3.7%-3.5%-3.3%-3.5%
CFO/Rev LTM16.3%21.6%8.7%16.3%7.0%16.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.5%20.5%7.7%19.0%8.5%17.5%
FCF/Rev LTM13.1%19.1%6.3%14.9%5.3%13.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.9%17.6%5.1%17.4%6.1%10.9%

Valuation

GTNNXSTSBGITGNASSPMedian
NameGray Med.Nexstar .Sinclair Tegna E W Scri. 
Mkt Cap0.56.21.13.30.41.1
P/S0.21.20.31.10.10.3
P/EBIT0.95.53.1-0.82.0
P/E6.011.6-23.49.59.59.5
P/CFO1.05.43.67.01.33.6
Total Yield22.5%12.3%2.3%13.0%10.6%12.3%
Dividend Yield5.7%3.7%6.6%2.4%0.0%3.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg65.3%16.7%21.7%-61.2%41.4%
D/E10.11.14.0-12.77.1
Net D/E9.81.03.5-12.56.7

Returns

GTNNXSTSBGITGNASSPMedian
NameGray Med.Nexstar .Sinclair Tegna E W Scri. 
1M Rtn5.5%9.7%-5.0%-0.5%6.3%5.5%
3M Rtn-7.1%0.9%12.4%-5.6%60.2%0.9%
6M Rtn26.1%25.8%24.8%20.9%55.3%25.8%
12M Rtn64.7%32.8%-1.0%11.6%124.1%32.8%
3Y Rtn-46.1%29.8%-28.1%7.3%-65.4%-28.1%
1M Excs Rtn4.8%9.0%-5.7%-1.2%5.6%4.8%
3M Excs Rtn-8.1%-0.7%10.3%-7.3%55.0%-0.7%
6M Excs Rtn13.7%13.4%12.4%8.5%42.9%13.4%
12M Excs Rtn34.6%19.2%-13.0%-1.9%110.9%19.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-118.1%-43.2%-96.5%-61.1%-137.2%-96.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Broadcasting9,89710,44410,5926,631 
Production Companies658535269141 
Other85173247871 
Total10,64011,15211,1087,643 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,306,390
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.0%
Average Daily Volume1,183,520
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.48
Basic Shares Quantity97,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.5%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/7/20254.8%5.2%9.5%
8/8/2025-0.2%44.9%50.0%
5/8/202516.9%12.9%2.4%
2/27/20250.5%-9.8%16.2%
11/8/2024-26.1%-17.3%-29.0%
8/8/2024-14.6%-18.6%-12.7%
5/7/20240.6%4.2%-11.7%
1/30/2024-0.4%-9.1%-41.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131512
# Negative10811
Median Positive4.6%4.2%9.7%
Median Negative-5.3%-10.6%-12.7%
Max Positive20.3%44.9%50.0%
Max Negative-33.7%-25.4%-41.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BOGER RICHARD LEE 9112025Sell5.8220,000116,460357,200Form
1Gignac Jeffrey RExecutive Vice President, CFO6092025Buy3.6812,50046,0002,372,124Form
2BOGER RICHARD LEE 3042025Sell3.8516,00061,552212,920Form
3McTear Paul 12172024Sell3.7717,78067,020359,450Form