Sinclair (SBGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.03 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Broadcasting
Sinclair (SBGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.03Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Broadcasting
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 353% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Local Media & Broadcast. Themes include Local News & Information Delivery, Regional Sports Content, and Local Digital Advertising. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Local Media & Broadcast. Themes include Local News & Information Delivery, Regional Sports Content, and Local Digital Advertising. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 353% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SBGI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
During the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Sinclair (SBGI) experienced a stock movement of 6.5% due to several key factors.
1. Sinclair Initiated a Strategic Review of its Broadcast Business and Explored Separating its Ventures Unit.
In mid-August 2025, Sinclair announced it was launching a comprehensive strategic review of its broadcast business, which could potentially lead to a merger. Concurrently, the company was evaluating options to spin off or split its Ventures unit. This dual-track approach aimed to optimize value creation across its portfolio by exploring transformational opportunities and separating businesses with distinct growth profiles.
2. The Company Reported Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
On November 5, 2025, Sinclair announced its Q3 2025 financial results, which met or exceeded guidance on all key financial metrics. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $100 million, surpassing the guidance range, and core advertising revenue grew by 7% year-over-year. Following this announcement, the stock responded positively, rising 2.02% on November 5, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SBGI Return | -1% | -16% | 0% | -48% | 33% | -1% | -43% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 20% | -26% | -8% | -45% | 38% | -45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SBGI Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 0% | 25% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 45% | 35% | 43% | 35% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SBGI Max Drawdown | -63% | -16% | 0% | -62% | -10% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -4% | -37% | -32% | -50% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHL, GTN, SSP, AMCX, CAST. See SBGI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SBGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1866.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1446 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCHL, GTN, SSP, AMCX, CAST
In The Past
Sinclair's stock fell -74.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -74.7% loss requires a 295.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SBGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 10312019 | SBGI | Sinclair | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -55.0% | -51.7% | -68.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 10312019 | SBGI | Sinclair | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -55.0% | -51.7% | -68.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sinclair
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,318 |
| Op Inc LTM | 297 |
| FCF LTM | 167 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 168 |
| CFO LTM | 225 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 255 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | -2.6 |
| P/CFO | 1.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 61.2% |
| D/E | 5.5 |
| Net D/E | 3.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 38.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -50.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -119.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local Media | 2,866 | 3,193 | |||
| Tennis | 228 | 217 | |||
| Other & Corporate | 62 | 95 | 481 | 451 | 470 |
| Eliminations | -22 | -59 | -160 | -116 | -59 |
| Local sports | 482 | 3,056 | 2,686 | 1,139 | |
| Broadcast | 2,757 | ||||
| Broadcast (Local News and Marketing Services) | 2,922 | 2,690 | |||
| Total | 3,134 | 3,928 | 6,134 | 5,943 | 4,240 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local Media | 227 | 591 | |||
| Tennis | 50 | 52 | |||
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | -1 | -6 | -8 |
| Other & Corporate | -608 | 3,341 | 39 | 47 | -98 |
| Local sports | -4 | -317 | -3,602 | 30 | |
| Broadcast | 374 | ||||
| Broadcast (Local News and Marketing Services) | 789 | 546 | |||
| Total | -331 | 3,980 | 95 | -2,772 | 470 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local Media | 4,747 | 5,554 | |||
| Other & Corporate | 1,048 | 826 | 2,009 | 1,867 | 1,271 |
| Tennis | 293 | 324 | |||
| Eliminations | -3 | 0 | -30 | -13 | -25 |
| Broadcast | 4,793 | ||||
| Local sports | 5,769 | 6,620 | 11,258 | ||
| Broadcast (Local News and Marketing Services) | 4,908 | 4,866 | |||
| Total | 6,085 | 6,704 | 12,541 | 13,382 | 17,370 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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