Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.655 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.655Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% | |
| Key risksMGNI key risks include [1] intense competition from dominant "walled garden" platforms and [2] evolving privacy regulations and the deprecation of third-party cookies that threaten its ad targeting effectiveness. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksMGNI key risks include [1] intense competition from dominant "walled garden" platforms and [2] evolving privacy regulations and the deprecation of third-party cookies that threaten its ad targeting effectiveness. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MGNI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and mid-December 2025, Magnite (MGNI) experienced a substantial stock decline of approximately 35.6%, stemming from a combination of company-specific news and broader market trends. Notably, the stock was trading 45.2% below its 52-week high of $26.52 from August 2025 as of November 6, 2025. Here are five key points explaining this movement: **1. Underwhelming Q3 CY2025 Earnings Report and Disappointing Guidance.** Magnite's shares fell 18.5% in early November 2025 following its Q3 CY2025 earnings report. Despite revenue slightly exceeding consensus estimates and adjusted earnings per share matching expectations, the market's reaction indicated that investors found the overall results underwhelming. Furthermore, the company's Q4 2025 guidance projected a slowdown in growth, particularly for its DV+ (display, video, and other formats) business, which accounts for over half of its revenue, raising investor concerns. **2. Impact of Google Antitrust Ruling.** In September 2025, Magnite's stock lost 16% in response to a favorable antitrust ruling for Google. This decision was largely perceived as a setback for Google's ad-tech competitors, including Magnite, as it allowed Google to retain ownership of its Chrome web browser and continued its dominance in the digital advertising industry. Magnite subsequently filed a lawsuit against Google, highlighting its belief that Google was not competing fairly. **3. Broader Market Caution and Profit-Taking.** The wider market environment also contributed to Magnite's stock decline. Around September and November 2025, a general wave of caution swept through the tech-heavy Nasdaq, driven by factors such as profit-taking following significant AI-driven rallies, concerns over stretched valuations, and rising Treasury yields. This broader market sentiment negatively affected high-growth technology companies like Magnite. **4. Missed Q2 CY2025 Revenue Expectations.** In early August 2025, Magnite missed Wall Street's revenue expectations for its Q2 CY2025 results. Although sales increased year-over-year and non-GAAP profit surpassed analyst estimates, the revenue shortfall likely contributed to an initial negative sentiment among investors at the outset of the period in question. **5. Concerns over DV+ Business Growth Slowdown.** The disappointing guidance for Q4 2025 indicated an expected deceleration in the growth of Magnite's DV+ segment. This slowdown, potentially influenced by macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending, further dampened investor enthusiasm and contributed to the stock's downward trajectory.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MGNI Return | 276% | -43% | -39% | -12% | 70% | 4% | 103% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -58% | 69% | -8% | -20% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MGNI Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 49% | 33% | 57% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MGNI Max Drawdown | -49% | -46% | -67% | -39% | -9% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -64% | -4% | -34% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PUBM, TTD, ROKU, DV, IAS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MGNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 969.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 120 days |
Compare to DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP
In The Past
Magnite's stock fell -90.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -90.6% loss requires a 969.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MGNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Magnite
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 718 |
| Op Inc LTM | 72 |
| FCF LTM | 151 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 144 |
| CFO LTM | 200 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 183 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 27.7 |
| P/E | 39.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -13.1% | -16.9% | -12.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.2% | 1.6% | 10.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 19.8% | 33.5% | 41.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -1.8% | -14.1% | -27.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.9% | 23.5% | 24.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.2% | -2.9% | 1.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.7% | 10.1% | 45.3% |
| 2/28/2024 | 14.8% | 11.0% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 14.8% | 10.5% | 19.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -16.3% | -27.0% |
| Max Positive | 65.6% | 94.1% | 92.0% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -32.4% | -45.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |