Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.38 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Magnite (MGNI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.38Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MGNI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Magnite's (MGNI) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Magnite's Q3 2025 Earnings and Post-Earnings Stock Drop: On November 5, 2025, Magnite reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results. While the company's revenue of $179.5 million exceeded analyst expectations and non-GAAP earnings per share met forecasts, the stock experienced a significant decline of 18.5% in the morning session on November 6, 2025. This suggested that despite solid operational results, investors may have reacted negatively to aspects beyond the headline numbers or the company's outlook.
2. Impact of Google Antitrust Ruling and Magnite's Lawsuit: Magnite's stock dropped by 16% in September 2025 following an antitrust ruling that favored Google by allowing it to retain ownership of its Chrome web browser. This decision was perceived as a setback for Google's ad technology competitors, including Magnite. In response, Magnite filed its own lawsuit against Google on September 16, 2025, seeking financial damages for alleged anticompetitive practices, further highlighting the ongoing competitive pressures in the digital advertising market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MGNI Return | 276% | -43% | -39% | -12% | 70% | -10% | 76% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 67% | -48% | -44% | -68% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MGNI Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MGNI Max Drawdown | -49% | -46% | -67% | -39% | -9% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -1% | -56% | -51% | |||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MGNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 969.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 499.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 120 days |
Compare to DV, EVON, KASH, LIAI, OCP
In The Past
Magnite's stock fell -90.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -90.6% loss requires a 969.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MGNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 08312023 | MGNI | Magnite | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 45.7% | 67.2% | -21.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Magnite
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 718 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 151 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 144 |
| CFO LTM | 199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 183 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 29.9 |
| P/E | 48.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -36.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -31.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -23.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -40.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -34.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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