Liberty Media (FWONA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.12 | Market Cap: $22.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Liberty Media (FWONA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.12Market Cap: $22.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 68x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Key risksFWONA key risks include [1] declining profitability driven by increasing operational costs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 68x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% |
| Key risksFWONA key risks include [1] declining profitability driven by increasing operational costs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FWONA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Miss: Liberty Media's Formula One Group reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, which significantly missed analysts' consensus estimate of $0.40, marking a 40% negative surprise.
2. Decline in Primary Formula 1 Revenue: Primary revenue for Formula 1 decreased in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. This decline was primarily due to a calendar variance, which resulted in one less Grand Prix being held in the quarter, impacting race promotion and media rights revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FWONA Return | -13% | 37% | 0% | 11% | 45% | 4% | 99% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 53% | 14% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FWONA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 0% | 25% | 75% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 55% | 67% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FWONA Max Drawdown | -59% | -6% | 0% | 0% | -3% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LYV, TKO, SPOT, DIS, CMCSA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FWONA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 532 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 120 days |
Compare to NWSA, OMC, IPG, ANGX, DCR
In The Past
Liberty Media's stock fell -16.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/4/2023. A -16.4% loss requires a 19.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FWONA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Liberty Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.2 |
| Rev LTM | 20,733 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,552 |
| FCF LTM | 2,248 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,391 |
| CFO LTM | 2,727 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,739 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.2 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 29.1 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | 1.1% | -7.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.9% | 2.2% | 6.6% |
| 2/28/2025 | -2.9% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| 11/12/2024 | -0.4% | -2.2% | 12.5% |
| 8/9/2024 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.1% | -2.5% | 2.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | 4.4% | 1.0% | -6.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | -1.1% | -0.5% | -3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -2.4% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 27.0% | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -7.7% | -33.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |