Liberty Media (FWONA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.09 | Market Cap: $21.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Liberty Media (FWONA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $85.09Market Cap: $21.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 68x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 68x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FWONA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Liberty Media (FWONA) experienced a decline of approximately -5.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Several factors contributed to this movement.
1. Negative Short-Term Trend and Sell Signals: The stock exhibited a generally negative short-term trend. As of December 2, 2025, FWONA held sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages, indicating a more negative forecast. Additionally, the 10-day moving average crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2025, which is considered a sell signal.
2. Analyst Forecasts and Ratings: Some analyst forecasts for FWONA in late 2025 were negative, with an average analyst price target suggesting a significant decrease from the prevailing price. For instance, a forecast from StockScan around December 2025 indicated a generally negative outlook for the next 30 days, with a projected average price of $63.79, representing a -24.47% change from a price of $84.46. While some analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings with higher price targets, others reiterated "hold" ratings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FWONA Return | -13% | 37% | 0% | 11% | 45% | 2% | 96% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 28% | -2% | 12% | 1% | -7% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FWONA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 0% | 25% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 44% | 31% | 48% | 44% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FWONA Max Drawdown | -59% | -6% | 0% | 0% | -3% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -1% | -19% | -10% | -5% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NWSA, OMC, IPG, ANGX, DCR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FWONA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 160 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 532 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 120 days |
Compare to NWSA, OMC, IPG, ANGX, DCR
In The Past
Liberty Media's stock fell -16.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/4/2023. A -16.4% loss requires a 19.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FWONA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Liberty Media
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,500 |
| Op Inc LTM | 966 |
| FCF LTM | 580 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 649 |
| CFO LTM | 959 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 934 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.1 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 13.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |